王爷说财经讯：你敢相信？美国国债刚突破37万亿美元大关！ 相当于每个美国人背债10.7万美元，能买两辆特斯拉Model Y！如果把这些钱换成1美元纸 币，绕地球赤道能缠14圈！ 特朗普紧急呼吁美联储降息，但这能救美债吗？这颗金融核弹会不会突然爆雷？ 今天我们就一起来撕开美债的真相——美国靠什么'躺着还钱'？爆雷后，中国和全球经济会怎样？ 别眨眼，这场大戏关乎每个人的钱包！ 8月13日消息，最近美国国债再次突破历史新高，即：美国国债首次突破37万亿，远超GDP的114%，债务增速远超经济承载力。 另外，数据还显示，美国政府靠'借新还旧'维持，利息支出已超军费，2025年光付息就需1.2万亿美元（占财政收入的26.5%）。 最后一点，如果美联储大幅降息，这可能会动摇美国以及美元在全球信任度，因为美元信用依赖美债安全，若政策混乱，投资者或加速抛售美债。 最后一个问题：美债会爆雷吗？影响如何？ 就短期来看，美债爆雷的风险低！因为美元霸权+美联储操作（如量化宽松）可暂时续命，但长期依赖"借新还旧"不可持续。 不过，如果一旦投资者信心崩塌，如评级再降、外国大规模抛售美债、利率飙升或财政失控，可能触发连锁反应。 值得一提的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, approximately 120% of GDP, significantly exceeding the international warning threshold of 60% [1] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of this debt will mature, requiring daily repayments of about $25 billion, putting immense pressure on the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have led to a surge in interest payments, projected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2024, surpassing the defense budget [3] Group 2 - The foreign ownership of U.S. debt has dropped to 30%, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a loss of confidence among global investors [3] - Efforts by the Trump administration to reduce fiscal pressure through budget cuts and tax increases have been largely ineffective, with only minor reductions achieved [3][4] - Trump's extreme measures, including public disputes and controversial statements, have intensified political divisions and raised concerns about the legitimacy of U.S. foreign policy [4] Group 3 - Both China and Japan have shown signs of reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, with China decreasing its holdings by $18.9 billion and Japan reportedly transferring $200 billion to offshore accounts [4][5] - The Trump administration's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve and its leadership could have long-term implications for the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5] - The combination of high debt, high interest rates, and high tariffs has created a "death triangle," leading to economic slowdown and increased volatility in financial markets [7] Group 4 - The ongoing debt crisis has prompted discussions about the potential decline of U.S. global dominance and the rise of alternative financial systems, particularly among BRICS nations [5][7] - The current economic environment mirrors pre-2008 financial crisis conditions, raising alarms about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies [7] - The effectiveness of Trump's strategies to address the debt crisis remains uncertain, with deeper systemic issues still unaddressed [7]

Group 1 - The core issue is the astronomical U.S. debt of $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, which is equivalent to the economic output of two Canadas [1] - The U.S. debt has surged from $33 trillion to $36.8 trillion in just six months, marking a historic growth rate, with an increase of $2 billion daily [1][39] - The U.S. government has struggled to implement effective measures to manage this debt, facing resistance from various interest groups and political challenges [4][6] Group 2 - Trump's initial strategies to reduce spending, such as cutting military expenses and welfare, faced significant pushback from military contractors and Congress, leading to minimal savings [4][6] - Efforts to increase revenue through tariffs on imports have not yielded the desired results, as trade deficits remained unchanged and retaliatory measures from other countries exacerbated the situation [10][11][13] - The Federal Reserve, holding $7.5 trillion in U.S. debt, has resisted Trump's calls for interest rate cuts, further complicating the debt repayment situation [15][27] Group 3 - The U.S. is caught in a vicious cycle of borrowing to pay interest, with rising interest rates making it increasingly difficult to manage debt [17][39] - Trump's public accusations against government data integrity, including claims of falsified employment statistics, have raised concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data [31][33] - The erosion of institutional credibility could lead to significant shifts in global capital flows, with countries like China reducing their holdings of U.S. debt [35][37] Group 4 - The International Monetary Fund has warned that U.S. debt risks are nearing critical levels, with potential implications for global financial markets [39] - Moody's analysis suggests that the U.S. debt crisis could lead to a decline in global GDP by 1.2% to 2.8% [41] - The U.S. debt growth rate is significantly higher than that of other developed nations, raising alarms about the sustainability of its fiscal policies [54][56] Group 5 - The current debt crisis is viewed as a pivotal moment in the decline of U.S. global dominance, with the emergence of a multipolar world order [43][57] - China's strategic responses, including diversifying trade and enhancing domestic production capabilities, contrast sharply with the U.S. approach to debt management [48][50] - The potential for a new global economic order is being shaped by the U.S.'s internal challenges and the strategic resilience demonstrated by China [57]

截至今年7月，美国欠下的债务已经飙到36.3万亿美元，这个数字大到什么程度？相当于好几个德国一年的经济总量，光每年还利息就要9210亿，够一个加 拿大折腾一整年。 最要命的是增长速度。2024年底还是33万亿，短短半年就暴涨3万亿。 这什么概念？平均每天增加160亿美元。 你晚上睡一觉醒来，美国又多欠了160亿。这速度，连印钞机都得累坏。 作者-彤 面对这座债务大山，号称"史上最伟大总统"的特朗普彻底急了。从炒掉统计局长到篡改就业数据，从死磕美联储到推出"耍赖协议"，招招都是险棋。 这位曾经威风八面的美国总统，怎么会被逼到自毁招牌的绝路？当连自己的政府数据都不可信时，还有谁敢相信美国能还得起这笔天文数字？ 半年涨3万亿，连火箭都没这么快：美国债务到底有多吓人 半年时间，美国国债从33万亿蹿到36.3万亿，这速度比火箭还快。 前言 说起来你可能没概念，36万亿到底是个什么数字？如果摞成百元美钞，能绕地球几十圈。 更直观点说，就是每个美国人头上背着11万美元的债，包括刚出生的婴儿。一个四口之家，光债务就有44万美元，比大多数人的房子还贵。 更悲催的是，这钱不是白借的。每年光还利息就要掏出9210亿美元，占政府总支 ...

鲍威尔（资料图） 为解决赤字问题，特朗普将目光投向外贸，尤其对中国发起大规模关税战。2025年4月起，宣布对几乎 所有进口商品征收10%基准关税，对中国商品更是多次加税。4月2日开始，对中国额外加征10%关税， 5月再加20%，主要针对"芬太尼"等敏感商品，对高科技芯片关税甚至一度预告高达70%。 然而，中国迅速且强硬地反击，商务部列出清单回敬，扩大对美农产品和工业品的加税，供应链也向东 南亚转移。中国企业坚决抵抗单方加税，毫不退缩。不仅如此，欧盟、日本等盟友也未完全配合特朗普 的关税政策，越南等新兴市场国家则持观望态度，试图吸纳东移的产业链。 尽管特朗普多次加码关税，但最终效果不佳。5月，他不得不宣布移除部分关税，寻求退路。贸易逆差 依旧居高不下，美国出口商和农场主库存积压严重，焦虑蔓延。到了7月，中国明确表态准备打持久 战，特朗普的关税战术彻底失效，贸易战陷入僵局。 据环球网报道，当地时间8月1日，特朗普发文指责美联储主席鲍威尔，若不降息，美联储理事会应接管 控制权，美债与经济问题再成焦点。 截至2025年7月，美国国债总额已突破36万亿美元，这一数字相当于多个世界大国GDP总和。美国财政 部数据显示，公 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the failure of the U.S. strategy under Trump to resolve the $36 trillion national debt through a trade war with China, highlighting that China is not yielding to U.S. pressure [1][9][16] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has become more assertive, imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and shifting parts of its supply chain to Southeast Asia to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3][5][11] - China is also focusing on technological advancements, increasing investments in core technologies like chips and artificial intelligence to achieve self-sufficiency and mitigate risks from U.S. actions [7][11] Group 2 - Trump's approach to reduce trade deficits through tariffs has backfired, leading to increased pressure on U.S. exporters and farmers, resulting in inventory buildup and domestic unrest [13][16] - Despite attempts to negotiate and cancel some tariffs, the trade deficit remains unchanged, and the global supply chain has been disrupted, leading to a stalemate in the trade war [16][19] - Trump has also targeted the Federal Reserve, blaming it for the economic slowdown due to high interest rates, and has attempted to exert political pressure on the Fed, which operates independently [19][21] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the root cause of the U.S. debt issue is not merely excessive spending but a structural imbalance in the economy, with military and welfare expenditures being politically untouchable [27][29] - Trump's tax cuts and deregulation may provide short-term economic boosts but exacerbate long-term debt issues, with projections indicating that debt will continue to rise significantly [29][31] - The increasing U.S. debt could undermine global confidence in the dollar, leading to higher borrowing costs and a potential economic crisis, as countries seek alternatives to U.S. debt [31][33]

Group 1 - The article discusses China's shift from being a "mysterious buyer" of Russian gold to a more transparent purchasing approach starting in 2025 [1][2] - In June 2025, Russia exported over $1 billion worth of gold to Hong Kong, which is three times the amount from the same period last year, making Russia's gold imports to Hong Kong second only to the UAE and mainland China [1] - In 2023, China set a record for gold purchases from Russia, with the People's Bank of China reportedly buying around 735 tons of gold, although some of this was not publicly disclosed [5] Group 2 - Since 2022, China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which fell below $800 billion by March 2025, while simultaneously seeking more gold as a financial safeguard [6] - Russian gold is sold to China at a discount of $20 to $50 per ounce, making it an attractive option even for arbitrage trading [6] - In 2024, Russia's gold production reached 330 tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, positioning Russia as the world's second-largest gold producer [8] Group 3 - The price of gold has increased from approximately $2,000 per ounce in 2022 to around $3,400 per ounce currently, providing significant revenue for Russia from gold exports [8]

别看美国如今十分风光，背后的美债怕是特朗普也扛不住了！ 美国国债规模已经飙升到了36万亿美元，相当于许多国家GDP的总和，每天光利息就有几十亿美元，距离崩盘就差最后一根稻草。 为了填上36万亿美债，特朗普只能使用关税威逼中国妥协，然而得到的却是中国的强硬反击，面对即将崩盘的36万亿美债，特朗普决定"解决"最大的大债 主... 36万亿的国债真的不是小数目，堪称是一个国家的定时炸弹，对于美国来说，这颗炸弹随时都有爆炸的可能。 在2025年7月，根据财政部数据显示，公众持有约28万亿、政府内部持有的债务约7万亿，而利息的支出已经占到了联邦预算的17%。 光2024年一年美国就花了9210亿美元来偿还美债，平均每天几十个亿的开销，即使是对于全球第一大经济体的美国，也十分吃力了。 更麻烦的是，美国的债务还在不断利滚利的增长，从2024年底的33万亿到现在的36.2万亿，这增长速度简直是恐怖。 肯定会有人好奇，既然美国还不上债务，那为什么要发放那么多的美债呢？ 归根到底就是入不敷出，美国政府花钱如流水，税收却迟迟跟不上，社保、医保这些表面上的福利开支，虽然很多底层百姓享受不到，但也成了美国财政的 无底洞。 当然"吃钱" ...

Core Viewpoint - The sudden shift in the U.S. Treasury Secretary's stance towards China reflects a strategic retreat by the Trump administration after facing multiple failures in its aggressive policies [1][3][19]. Group 1: Energy Policy - Trump's initial strategy involved leveraging energy sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil to create global supply tensions, aiming to address domestic economic issues [5][7]. - The OPEC+ decision to increase oil production undermined Trump's plan, preventing the desired volatility in oil prices that could have pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [7][9]. Group 2: Trade and Alliances - Trump's approach to isolate China involved threatening tariffs on key allies, hoping to create a perception of U.S. dominance in international negotiations [10][12]. - While some agreements were reached with the EU and Japan, these were met with significant domestic opposition, indicating a lack of genuine commitment to U.S. demands [12][14]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Challenges - Recent labor data revealed a significant downturn in employment, comparable to post-pandemic levels, which directly challenged Trump's narrative of a strong economy [17]. - In response to negative economic reports, Trump dismissed the head of the statistics bureau, highlighting his anxiety and inability to address the underlying issues [17][19]. Group 4: Political Implications - The combination of failed external strategies and poor domestic economic performance led to a drop in Trump's approval ratings to a new low of 37%, raising concerns within the Republican Party about upcoming elections [19][21]. - The shift in U.S. policy towards China is seen as a last resort after exhausting other options, indicating a retreat from aggressive posturing to a focus on domestic crisis management [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The approach of the Fed's interest rate cut is expected to trigger a new round of upward trend in precious metals [2]. - With the US employment market showing signs of weakness and the White House's increasing influence on the Fed, once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will gain strong upward momentum [35]. - The US dollar is in the early stage of a new downward cycle, and the prices of gold and silver denominated in US dollars have the macro - logic to rise continuously in the next 10 years [38]. - The current gold and silver markets are in the third - round bull market, and there is still significant room for price increases in the future [74][77]. - There is a high probability that shorting the gold - silver ratio will become a market consensus in the second half of the year, and silver may become one of the best - performing commodities [69][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review Gold - In July, gold entered a low - volatility period. Shanghai gold had a cumulative monthly increase of only 0.35%, while London gold fell 0.72% with the lowest monthly volatility since April [13]. - Factors affecting the gold market in July included the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, the cease - fire in the Middle East, concerns about the Fed's independence, new tariff agreements between the US and Japan and the EU, and the "Genius Act" that diverted funds to cryptocurrencies [13][14]. Silver - In July, the silver market experienced a roller - coaster ride. London silver rose 1.44% with an amplitude over 10%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.5% with an amplitude over 9% [16]. - In the first three weeks of July, the risk appetite increased, and factors such as the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, strong non - farm payrolls data, and Russia's inclusion of silver in foreign reserves boosted silver prices. In the last week, factors like the decline in copper prices, the fall in gold prices, and the rise of cryptocurrencies led to a sharp correction in silver prices [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Logic Manufacturing Reshoring and the Decline of the US Dollar's Reserve Currency Status - The US dollar index has declined by 10% since the beginning of the year. The "Lake Tahoe Agreement" aims to reshape the US economy by increasing tariffs and promoting manufacturing reshoring, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar's status as a reserve currency. Central banks around the world are accelerating the process of "de - dollarization" and increasing their gold holdings [21]. The Pennsylvania Plan - This plan aims to patch the flaws in the Lake Tahoe Agreement by shifting the demand for US Treasury bonds from external to domestic. It uses regulatory measures, tax incentives, and other means to encourage domestic capital to buy US Treasury bonds, with stablecoins as a financial innovation tool [22]. US Employment and Inflation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed resilience, but in July, non - farm payrolls data were worse than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised downward. Inflation has shown signs of rising, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [31][34]. The Fed's Interest Rate Policy - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged since December last year. With the weakening of the US employment market, the influence of the White House on the Fed is expected to increase. Once the independence of the Fed's monetary policy is shaken, the prices of gold and silver will rise [35]. The US Dollar Cycle - The US dollar has a cycle of about 17 years, and currently, it is at the beginning of a new downward cycle. The negative correlation between precious metals and the US dollar has been challenged, and a decline in the US dollar index will strongly boost the prices of gold and silver [38]. The Changing Role of Gold's Safe - Haven Attribute - Gold's safe - haven attribute has weakened, and future price increases may require a re - definition of gold, such as its role as an anti - inflation asset or a risk asset [41]. The Increase in US Treasury Bond Scale - The US federal government's debt is expected to continue to rise, and historically, an increase in debt has been associated with rising gold prices [44]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Logic Central Bank Gold Purchases - In 2025, the pace of central bank gold purchases has slowed down, but the total amount is still considerable. Most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, which will support gold prices [50]. Gold Investment Demand - In the first half of the year, gold investment demand increased significantly, especially the demand for gold ETFs. This growth offset the slowdown in central bank gold purchases and supported gold prices [53]. Global Physical Silver Supply and Demand - The supply of silver has been growing slowly, mainly due to limited growth in mined silver and recycled silver. The demand for silver in the industrial sector, especially in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, has increased significantly. The global silver market has been in a supply - shortage situation for four consecutive years, and the shortage is expected to continue in 2025 [57][60][64]. Silver's Undervaluation and the Gold - Silver Ratio - Silver is considered undervalued compared to gold and copper. The gold - silver ratio has been high this year but has started to repair since June, and this trend is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year [69]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Summary and Outlook - In August, gold is expected to break through and rise. The price of London gold is expected to be between $3250 - 3300/oz and $3500 - 3600/oz, and the price of Shanghai gold is expected to be between 770 - 780 yuan/g and 830 - 850 yuan/g [79][80]. - Silver may have a strong rebound. In July, although it adjusted in the short term, its medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged. The price of London silver is expected to be between $36 - 37/oz and $40 - 42/oz, and the price of Shanghai silver is expected to be between 9000 - 9100 yuan/kg and 9700 - 9800 yuan/kg [79][80].