Group 1 - LME and SHFE copper prices experienced slight increases due to a weaker dollar and a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with LME three-month copper rising by 0.34% to $9,702 per ton and SHFE August copper contract increasing by 0.47% to ¥78,810 per ton [1] - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is seen as a potential stabilizing factor, although analysts caution that it may not be a final resolution, and the market is awaiting clearer signals [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts, with the market estimating a 18% chance of a rate cut in July, contributing to the dollar's weakness and making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers using other currencies [1] Group 2 - Lead smelters have increased the supply of second-hand electric bicycle batteries in preparation for rising summer lead demand, which has positively impacted primary lead prices [2] - Electric bicycles typically require more frequent battery replacements during summer due to reduced battery lifespan in hot weather [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum down by 0.47% to $2,567 per ton, while three-month tin, zinc, and nickel saw increases of 0.68%, 0.73%, and 0.64% respectively [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a weaker dollar and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran [1][3] - On June 24, LME three-month copper rose by $1.50, or 0.02%, closing at $9,669.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,760.50 [1][2] - The market is experiencing a significant outflow of copper from LME registered warehouses, with a 65% reduction in inventory since mid-February, now at 94,675 tons, the lowest since August 2023 [3] Group 2 - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply, as evidenced by the premium of $151 per ton for spot copper contracts over three-month copper, down from $280 the previous day [3] - The International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper market shortage of 38,000 tons in April, contrasting with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March [3] - Other metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum down by $9.50, or 0.37%, while lead increased by $16, or 0.8% [2][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators on metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and zinc [1][2] - The three-month copper price increased by 0.46% to $9,713 per ton, influenced by a weaker US dollar, while risk aversion due to conflicts in the Middle East limited further gains [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.1%, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies [1] Group 2 - Concerns over oil supply in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, which could negatively affect global economic growth and potentially increase inflation [1] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in US economic growth, with May retail sales declining more than expected, linked to changes in US tariff policies [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates rose by 29.4% year-on-year in May 2025, totaling 17.51 million tons, while the first five months of 2025 saw a 33.1% increase to 85.18 million tons [1] Group 3 - In other base metals, three-month aluminum prices fell by 0.02% to $2,550 per ton, while zinc prices rose by 0.55% to $2,653 per ton [2] - Lead prices increased by 0.18% to $1,979.5 per ton, nickel prices slightly rose by 0.24% to $14,960 per ton, and tin prices saw a 1.11% increase to $32,625 per ton [2]

6月中旬，美国通胀数据意外走低，引发市场对美联储年内提前降息的强烈预期，美元汇率随即承压下 行。周三，美元兑主要货币普遍下跌，反映出投资者对美联储政策路径重新评估后的集体反应。 策略师EliasHaddad指出，"美国通胀动能减弱，这迫使市场重新考虑利率走向。"他还提到，在当前平均 关税由2%升至15%以上的背景下，物价压力仍未明显加剧，这反而凸显了需求侧的疲软，使降息的可 能性进一步增强。 贸易谈判的积极信号一度支撑美元，但未能扭转整体弱势趋势。若相关谈判能带来对外贸易壁垒的实质 性放松，或将增强美元中期韧性，但当前市场仍以短期货币政策逻辑主导汇率波动。 从技术角度看，欧元和英镑兑美元双双突破近期整理区间，显示市场情绪偏向继续做空美元。若美联储 在未来两次会议中释放鸽派信号，美元可能面临进一步调整空间。 纽约午后，美元兑日元下跌0.2%，至144.58；欧元兑美元上涨0.5%，至1.1484，盘中一度因贸易谈判消 息涨幅收窄；英镑兑美元上涨0.3%，报1.3542；瑞郎兑美元亦上扬0.3%，至0.8205。 数据驱动的预期重定价是此次美元走弱的核心因素。美国5月CPI环比仅上升0.1%，远低于经济学家普 遍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, which is putting pressure on the US dollar [1] Group 1 - Recent data indicates a slowdown in inflation and the job market, enhancing the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as this fall [1] - The geopolitical leadership adjustments by Trump and his aggressive tariff agenda are contributing to the weakening of the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in CPI is expected to suppress the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The market is aware that reaching trade agreements among major economies is not straightforward, and ongoing global trade tensions may continue to support gold prices [1] - CPI data is anticipated to rise, which should provide investors with more guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices are projected to reach $38 per ounce in the coming months, with market deficits and a weakening dollar being key factors for further price increases, potentially testing $40 per ounce [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Holdings indicates that rising yen yields are prompting Japanese investors to withdraw from U.S. assets, alongside implicit exchange rate pressures from Washington, which may lead to a 6% appreciation of the yen against the dollar in the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Trends - Nomura recommends shorting the USD/JPY pair, targeting a decline from approximately 145 yen to 136 yen by the end of September [1] - The steady pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is expected to encourage domestic investors to allocate more to local bonds rather than overseas bonds [1] Group 2: Trade and Market Sentiment - Concerns over a depreciating yen, particularly during sensitive bilateral trade negotiations, may exacerbate U.S. worries regarding the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] - Analysts do not anticipate any symbolic foreign exchange agreements between the U.S. and Japan, but the market still expects a tacit understanding regarding a weaker dollar [1]

金十数据6月5日讯，分析师彼得•麦奎尔表示，白银可能比黄金有更大的上涨空间。他指出，多种市场 因素支持这一趋势，包括美元走软和债券收益率下降。麦奎尔说，"美元指数低于99，位于98.80左右。 白银出现了不错的反弹，黄金价格也在上涨。"他指出，债券收益率已经下降，10年期国债收益率为 4.35%，这促使资金进入金属市场。他补充说："在这么短的时间内，很多聪明钱都在白银和黄金上找 到了归宿。"周二欧盘，现货白银2012年10月以来首次站上35美元/盎司关口。麦奎尔鼓励投资者关注金 银比率，他称该比率"可能在95-97:1左右"。他认为，白银投资仍然不足，将受益于市场兴趣和工业需 求。他说，"白银比黄金更光明。" 分析师：多种因素显示 白银可能比黄金有更大的上涨空间 ...

路透调查：随着美元走软，大多数新兴市场货币将保持坚挺。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, expressed concerns regarding the rise in U.S. bond yields, the weakening of the dollar, and the decline in stock markets, noting that the U.S. government has responded in each case [1] Group 1 - The increase in U.S. bond yields is a significant concern for the Bank of England [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is another factor that raises alarms for the financial stability [1] - The downturn in stock markets is also a point of worry, indicating potential economic instability [1]