沪金涨 0.42 %，报 780.36 元/克，沪银跌 0.75 %，报 8830.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 1.26 %， 报 3385.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.48 %，报 36.44 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.41%，美元指数报 98.46 ； 贵金属日报 2025-06-12 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国财政赤字水平维持在高位，美国财政的无序扩张持续冲击美元信用，对金银价 格形成支撑。 美国五月预算赤字为 3160 亿美元，其中预算支出创下了历史上的单月最高水平。受到特朗普 政府关税政策的影响，美国海关税收在五月份达到 230 亿美元，较去年同期增长 170 亿美元， 上涨幅度接近四倍，但仍难以覆盖当前规模庞大的财政赤字水平。美国财政部长贝森特表态， 他预计本财年赤字与 GDP 比值将介于 6.5%至 6.7%，将连续三个财年超过 6%。当前美国赤字情 况支持黄金价格走强。 而美国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - The gold market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a support level identified at 3316 and a resistance level at 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels [2][4] - The analysis of silver suggests maintaining a bearish strategy, with key resistance levels identified at 37, 37.6, and 38.1, while also noting the potential for extreme bullish movements [4] Group 2 - The upcoming US CPI data is expected to maintain the current market volatility, with significant attention on the 3365 resistance level, which is crucial for potential market movements [2] - A downward movement in gold prices is anticipated, with critical support levels identified between 3320-16, and a potential breakdown below 3300 could indicate further bearish sentiment [4] - The analysis of futures for gold and silver indicates a bearish outlook, with specific price levels for short positions highlighted, suggesting a cautious approach to trading in the current market environment [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. May CPI data was released, showing a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5% [1] - The month-on-month CPI for May recorded a 0.1% increase, while the market had anticipated a 0.2% rise [1] - The core CPI year-on-year for May was reported at 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.1%, compared to the market expectation of 0.3% [1] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with expectations of two rate cuts this year [3] - The market now anticipates a total of 77 basis points in rate cuts over the next year, with 48 basis points expected by December [3] - The decline in automobile and clothing prices contributed to the lower-than-expected core CPI reading for May [3] - The "furniture and bedding" index fell by 0.8%, marking the weakest reading since December of the previous year [3] - The energy index decreased by 1% in May after a 0.7% increase in April, with gasoline prices dropping by 2.6% [3] - Despite the decline in gasoline and natural gas prices, electricity costs rose by 0.9% [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the release of the US CPI data and its potential impact on gold prices, indicating a critical moment for market analysis [1] - Richard is conducting a live analysis to interpret the CPI data and its implications for gold [1] - The focus is on understanding the key points that could influence gold's market performance following the CPI announcement [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May at 20:30 Beijing time [1]

跟踪美国CPI数据，美联储降息迟迟不到，黄金震荡等破位？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous occurrence of the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury auction and the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to create significant market volatility, breaking the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market [1][4][6] Group 1: CPI Data Impact - The upcoming CPI report for May is a key indicator of U.S. inflation, directly influencing consumer living costs, business production costs, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][5] - If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it may lead to increased inflation pressure, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which could result in falling bond prices and rising yields [5] - Conversely, if the CPI data is below expectations, it may ease inflation pressure, enhancing the appeal of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [5] Group 2: Treasury Auction Dynamics - The outcome of the 10-year Treasury auction will reflect market demand for U.S. Treasuries, influencing yields and the overall bond market [3][4] - A strong auction demand, indicated by a high bid-to-cover ratio, would suggest high market confidence in U.S. Treasuries, potentially stabilizing yields [5] - Conversely, weak auction results, such as a low bid-to-cover ratio or even a failed auction, could lead to a significant rise in yields and spread panic in the market [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of the CPI report and the Treasury auction is likely to signal the end of the recent period of calm in the U.S. Treasury market, prompting investors and financial institutions to reassess their strategies [4][6] - Global investors, financial institutions, and policymakers need to closely monitor these events, as they will influence future market dynamics and economic policies [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - The current trend in gold is characterized as a "super sweep" market, with expectations that this volatility will continue for an extended period, similar to the market behavior observed after the 2011 peak [1][3] - The trading strategy recommended involves either small stop-losses to improve the risk-reward ratio or larger stop-losses to increase the success rate, with specific dollar amounts suggested for each approach [3] Group 2 - Recent trading activity in gold showed a daily high of 3349 and a low of around 3301, indicating significant volatility within the trading day [4] - Key support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading day are identified, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3350 and 3365 [6] - Silver has experienced a notable increase, reaching its highest level since March 2012, but there are indications of potential weakness in the bullish momentum [6][8]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, particularly due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and warnings from the World Bank about potential global trade stagnation [2]. - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is influencing gold price corrections, as market expectations of a potential agreement could ease trade tensions and reduce demand for safe-haven assets [3]. - Key economic indicators to watch include the US CPI data, with expectations of a rise in core CPI to 2.9% year-on-year, which could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and subsequently affect gold prices [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a doji candlestick pattern, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears around current price levels, with significant support at 3293 and resistance at 3349 [5]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold has completed a three-wave structure in its recent price movements, with critical levels at 3293 for support and 3349 for resistance, suggesting potential for further downward movement if these levels are breached [7].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The paper gold market showed subtle price dynamics on June 10, with an opening price of 768.23 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 770.34 CNY and a low of 762.52 CNY, closing at 766.57 CNY, reflecting a 0.22% decline from the opening [1] - Economic and political factors are interwoven, influencing market supply and demand as well as investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Senior officials from the US and China are holding crucial meetings in London regarding tariffs and trade restrictions, with a previous agreement to suspend some tariffs easing market tensions [3] - Positive outcomes from the trade negotiations could increase market risk appetite, leading to a potential outflow of funds from safe-haven assets, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, although the impact is expected to be limited [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation, particularly Russia's control over more territory in Ukraine, has heightened market uncertainty, increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4] - In a low-interest-rate environment, gold's lack of yield becomes less of a disadvantage, enhancing its attractiveness for asset preservation during economic instability [4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Investors are focused on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a key indicator of inflation that could provide insights into the health of the US economy [4] - Higher-than-expected CPI data may intensify inflation concerns, potentially driving gold prices up, while lower-than-expected data could complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Paper gold is facing critical resistance and support levels, with the 795-805 CNY range acting as significant resistance and the 740-750 CNY range as key support [5] - A breakthrough above the resistance could open further upside potential, while a drop below the support may trigger panic selling and further price declines [5]