美国政府关门引发的"贬值"交易推动全球风险资产反弹，比特币价格再创历史新高。随着政治和经济不确定性加剧，投资者正将资 金转向比特币、黄金等资产以对冲美元贬值风险。 全球最大加密货币周日（10月5日）在亚洲交易时段最高触及125,689美元，超越此前8月14日创下的124,514美元纪录。比特币此次 上涨得到美股上涨和比特币相关交易所交易基金资金流入的支撑。 作者：董静；来源：华尔街见闻 美国政府关门引发"贬值"交易热潮，投资者为对冲美元贬值风险，将资金转向比特币、黄金等资产，比特币周日最高触及125,689 美元，再创历史新高。除政治不确定性外，机构需求增长、比特币ETF资金流入、企业囤币策略及10月季节性因素共同推动涨势。 仅本周，比特币就上涨了12%，今年迄今累计上涨超过30%。市场参与者将美国政府关门事件称为引发"贬值交易"的催化剂，投资 者预期这将推动资金流向"避险"资产。 标准渣打银行全球数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick表示："这次关门很重要。"他指出，比特币现在与传统风险资产的关联度更 高，预计在此期间将继续上涨。 美国政府自周三开始关门，这一事件成为推动比特币价格突破的关键因素。投资 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has triggered a "devaluation trade," leading to a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high [1][3] - Investors are shifting funds towards Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against the risk of dollar devaluation [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin surged to a peak of $125,689 on October 5, surpassing its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [1] - The cryptocurrency has increased by 12% this week and over 30% year-to-date, driven by the government shutdown and expectations of funds flowing into safe-haven assets [3] - Institutional demand, technical factors, and seasonal trends are contributing to Bitcoin's price increase [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The shutdown has led to a broad rise in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reaching record highs [4] - Gold prices have also increased by over 2% this week, marking the seventh consecutive week of gains [4] Group 3: Institutional Influence - The demand for Bitcoin is bolstered by institutional interest, particularly from companies like MicroStrategy that have adopted a strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies [6] - The influx of funds into Bitcoin-related ETFs has made it easier for traditional investors to participate in Bitcoin investments, expanding the market participant base [6] Group 4: Historical Context - The current performance of Bitcoin during the government shutdown contrasts sharply with its performance during the previous shutdown in late 2018, indicating a stronger correlation with U.S. government risk this time [6] - October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with nine out of the last ten Octobers showing price increases, reinforcing bullish sentiment among investors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has triggered a "devaluation trade," leading to a rebound in global risk assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $125,689, surpassing its previous record of $124,514 set on August 14 [1][3]. Group 1: Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin has surged by 12% this week and has increased over 30% year-to-date, driven by the expectation that the government shutdown will push funds toward "safe-haven" assets [3]. - The recent performance of Bitcoin is significantly different from the government shutdown in late 2018, as it is now more closely associated with U.S. government risk [6]. - October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with 9 out of the last 10 Octobers showing price increases, contributing to bullish sentiment among investors [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shutdown has led to a broad increase in risk assets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching record highs, and gold prices rising over 2% this week [4]. - The influx of funds into Bitcoin-related ETFs has provided additional momentum for price increases, making it easier for traditional investors to participate in Bitcoin investments [6]. - Institutional demand and favorable technical factors, along with seasonal trends, are driving Bitcoin's price upward [3][6]. Group 3: Broader Asset Trends - Various assets, including stocks, gold, and collectibles, have reached historical highs, indicating a widespread trend of investors seeking refuge in alternative assets amid dollar devaluation concerns [5]. - The current environment has seen a shift in investment strategies, with companies like MicroStrategy adopting cryptocurrency accumulation strategies, further boosting market demand [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices are reaching a peak, with a significant increase of 65% this year, approaching a 14-year high and nearing the historical peak of $49.95 per ounce set in 1980 [1][5] - Silver leasing rates have surged to extremely high levels, indicating a severe depletion of silver inventories in the London market, exacerbated by a doubling of silver imports from India in September [3][4] - The absence of Chinese market participants during the National Day holiday has intensified the supply crunch in the silver market, which is expected to ease when they return [4][5] Group 2 - The relative strength index (RSI) for silver reached 82 this week, a level that historically precedes price declines, although the current surge is attributed to broader economic concerns rather than purely technical factors [5][6] - Silver is viewed as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, similar to gold, but with a higher beta coefficient, indicating greater price volatility [6] - The industrial applications of silver in sectors like solar energy and power generation provide it with unique value that gold does not possess, contributing to its price dynamics [6]