博弈调令 ? 8月4日A股市场投资情绪 资本市场是投资者信心的晴雨表。投资者情绪的波动会影响其对未 的主观判断,进而影响投资行为,形成合力后对市场产生显著影响 想通过几个问题，了解投资者对每日市场的看法。8月4日共有8740 户参与了调研，具体情况如下： 上证指数 创 业 板 深证成指 ▲ 0.66% ▲ 0.46% ▲ 0.50 A股低开高走，三大股指小幅上涨，均完成日内V型反转，技术面上，沪指2 支撑有效，MACD红柱缩短但未形成死叉，短期需关注3600点压力位。 3875家上涨 涨跌停比 个股涨多跌少,全市场超 3800 只个股上涨,赚 钱效应极好,中小盘股表现活跃,军工板块全线 走强,医药、人形机器人概念午后拉升,贵金属、 液冷服务器等板块涨幅居前,创新药板块多股跌 停。 两市成交额 7元▼6.269 131 s 亚 15 - 主力资金净流出 3.5 亿元 散户资金净流入 机构呈"防御性调仓与政策博弈" 特征，资金从高估值赛道流向军工、贵金属等防御板块，同时布局机 等政策催化方向；散户呈"亢奋与分化并存"特征，集中参与军工、机器人等热点题材，杠杆资金加仓 但风险偏好过高，跟风行为明显，资金分散目缺乏持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report After two consecutive days of significant corrections last week, the sentiment in the stock market has recovered today. However, although the market has moved upward, the trading volume remains in a contraction state. The leading industries are mainly related to military (Pakistan's defense layout information), robotics (mass production of robot orders and accelerated corporate financing), and precious metals (due to the unexpected US non - farm data, the US dollar index declined, and the risk - aversion sentiment increased), all driven by short - term information changes, and their sustainability is expected to be limited. From the perspective of stock index futures indicators, the market shows short - sellers leaving, which mainly reflects that investors believe the possibility of short - term corrections has decreased. Without obvious bullish factors, the possibility of a continuous upward trend is low. It is expected that the stock index will fluctuate within the week, so it is not advisable to chase high in operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review The stock index generally moved upward today, with small - cap stocks showing stronger performance. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 99.8 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all stock index futures increased in price with reduced volume, indicating that the market was mainly driven by short - covering [2]. Important Information - HSBC raised its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [3]. Strategy Recommendation It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.42 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.71 | 3.8519 | 7.7587 | 18.9239 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.2338 | - 1.2314 | - 1.1855 | - 2.3743 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.4635 | 9.2065 | 21.695 | 33.7048 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.7234 | - 0.4835 | - 0.3294 | - 0.1172 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.66 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.46 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.08 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 14985.50 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 998.00 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange regarding the public consultation on platinum and palladium futures and options indicates that these commodities are expected to be officially launched in China's futures market soon, marking a significant step towards the internationalization and diversification of the domestic futures market, while presenting new opportunities and challenges for market participants [1]. Group 1: Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) Overview - Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) include platinum (Pt), palladium (Pd), rhodium (Rh), iridium (Ir), osmium (Os), and ruthenium (Ru), which are known for their unique physical and chemical properties and extensive industrial applications [4][11]. - PGMs are characterized by high melting and boiling points, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, and remarkable chemical stability, making them essential in various industrial processes [13][45]. - The supply of PGMs is highly concentrated, with South Africa being the dominant supplier, accounting for approximately 71% of platinum and 36% of palladium production globally [30][31]. Group 2: Industrial Applications - PGMs serve as critical catalyst materials in modern industrial processes, particularly in petroleum refining, chemical production, and organic synthesis, due to their high catalytic activity and stability [11][41]. - In the electronics sector, PGMs are utilized for their excellent conductivity and stability, playing vital roles in components such as multilayer ceramic capacitors and hard disk drives [48][55]. - The demand for PGMs is significantly driven by overlapping needs in the chemical and electronics industries, with specific metals like palladium and platinum being in high demand for various applications [37][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global supply of PGMs is influenced by mining and refining processes, with a notable portion of the demand being met through recycling of spent catalysts [16][45]. - The market for PGMs is characterized by a unique dynamic where supply and demand are highly elastic, influenced by industrial metabolism cycles, which can buffer and amplify price fluctuations [45]. - The anticipated decline in global PGM supply due to production cuts in South Africa may impact market prices and industry dynamics significantly [35].

Core Insights - A block trade occurred for Shanjin International (000975) on August 1, 2025, with a volume of 3 million shares and a transaction value of 52.5 million yuan, at a price of 17.50 yuan per share, representing a discount of 2.83% compared to the closing price of 18.01 yuan on that day [1] Trading Activity - The opening price for Shanjin International on that day was 17.85 yuan, with a highest price of 18.16 yuan and a lowest price of 17.85 yuan, closing with a 0.56% increase [1] - The total transaction amount for the day was 234 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.51% [1] - The block trade accounted for 22.48% of the total transaction amount for the day [1] Capital Flow - On that day, the net inflow of main funds was 14.63 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative decline of 4.25% over the past five trading days, with a net outflow of 59.33 million yuan [1] - The latest margin financing balance is 863 million yuan, which has increased by 62.50 million yuan over the past five days, reflecting a growth rate of 7.80% [1] Company Valuation - Shanjin International currently has a total market capitalization of 50.009 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 45.519 billion yuan [1] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is 18.02 times, and the price-to-book ratio is 3.95 times [1] - The company is associated with various concept sectors, including precious metals, Inner Mongolia, S&P, FTSE Russell, and MSCI China [1]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3304.30, with a change of -12.20 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 37.92, with a change of -0.19 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1397.00, with a change of -9.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1246.00, with a change of 1.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 70.00, with a change of 0.79 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 9775.50, with a change of 17.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is not provided, with no change data [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1208.09, with a change of 3.22 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 955.37, with a change of -0.86 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15149.90, with a change of -24.02 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is not provided, with no change data [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] Precious Metal Ratios - The latest precious metal ratio data is 99.97, with a change of 1.05 [10] - Another ratio data is 1.14, with a change of -0.01 [10] - Another ratio data is 1.32, with a change of -0.01 [10] - Another ratio data is 149.53, with a change of 1.06 [10]

尽管近几个交易日股价出现回调，但东方财富仍然入围了光大证券、国信证券、中泰证券3家券商的8 月"金股"名单。近期A股主要股指震荡走高，市场成交维持相对高位。中泰证券认为，对东方财富而 言，市场交投持续活跃将带动公司估值与业绩共振向上。 从券商8月"金股"名单看，大金重工、东鹏饮料、沪电股份、华友钴业、新易盛、中国化学、中芯国 际、卓易信息等8家公司均获得了两家券商的联合推荐，关注度相对较高，看好的券商包括财通证券、 光大证券、国信证券、华安证券、开源证券、中国银河、华龙证券、西部证券等。港股标的中，中国海 洋石油、泡泡玛特、中国宏桥等的投资价值获得券商看好。 回顾券商此前推荐的7月"金股"表现，Wind收录的35只券商金股指数中，万得开源证券金股指数7月表 现最好，累计涨幅达15.07%；万得平安证券金股指数、万得银河证券金股指数、万得招商证券金股指 数、万得长城证券金股指数、万得国元证券金股指数、万得华泰证券金股指数在7月均取得两位数涨 幅。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 券商8月"金股"名单近期陆续出炉。 据中国证券报·中证金牛座记者不完全统计，截至7月31日1 ...

王毅会见美中贸易全国委员会董事会代表团 2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅在北京会见了美中贸易全国委员会董事会代表 团。王毅强调，无论国际形势如何变化，中国对美政策都将保持连续性和稳定性，愿意与美方加强沟 通、避免误判、管控分歧、探索合作，推动中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。他还表示，中国将扩大 高水平对外开放，期待美国企业继续看好中国、投资中国，实现互利共赢。美中贸委会董事会主席等代 表表示，美中关系是当今世界最重要的双边关系，美国工商界将继续扎根中国、深耕中国，扩大贸易、 投资、科技创新、绿色发展、医疗卫生等领域合作，促进中国与世界进一步联通。 美企高管排队来华谈合作 据玉渊谭天消息，7月30日，商务部部长王文涛在北京会见了包括波音、苹果公司在内的近十家美国企 业，双方就中美经贸关系、美资企业在华发展等议题交换意见。会见前，美企代表排队同中方握手寒 暄；会见结束后，美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森专门向中方表达感谢。 强降雨致河北承德六道河镇部分村受灾，已造成8人遇难、18人失联 7月30日，据河北省承德市兴隆县抢险救灾指挥部消息，受本轮强降雨影响，兴隆县六道河镇部分村受 灾。经核实，承德兴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amid ongoing Fed turmoil, precious metals are in high - level oscillations. The short - term market sentiment fluctuates, but the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It's recommended to focus on tariff negotiation progress and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield first declined and then rose. Precious metals showed an inverse relationship, rising first and then falling. Silver was more resilient than gold. London gold traded between $3338 - $3439 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.02%. London silver reached a new high of $39.523 since September 2011, trading between $38 - $39.5, with a weekly gain of 1.88%. Affected by exchange rates, domestic precious metals underperformed overseas markets. Shanghai gold traded between 774 - 794 yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.46%. Shanghai silver traded between 9213 - 9526 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.28%. The US dollar index hovered between 97 - 98, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield ranged from 4.33% - 4.44%, remaining at a relatively high level [5] - Market trading was affected by Fed turmoil, trade negotiation progress, and US macro "hard" data. The Trump administration pressured the Fed, but the Treasury Secretary soothed market sentiment. Tariff negotiations accelerated, with a preliminary agreement reached between the US and Japan, while the game between the US and the EU continued. US macro data was generally strong, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year slightly adjusted downwards. Overall, there were more negative factors this week, limiting the upward trend of precious metals [5] - US macro data: The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [5] - US tariff progress: The EU passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff plan against the US, to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on Japan and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the US. Trump also said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries, but is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US [5] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, tariff negotiations between the US and other major economies have accelerated, easing market risk - aversion sentiment. The latest US employment and services PMI data show resilience, reducing market concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals. In the future, despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the benchmark scenario is inflation rebound and economic slowdown due to US tariff and policy uncertainties. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations [9] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for low - buying opportunities after a pullback [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Adopt the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Economy - GDP and Consumption - In 2024, the annual GDP growth rate reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove US GDP growth, with the service industry making a significant positive contribution. The investment sector also supported the economy [22] - In Q1 2025, affected by tariffs, the economy slowed down, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%. This mainly reflected increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [23] - The latest data shows that US residents' pessimistic expectations have eased. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 0.9%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5% [24][25] 3.2.2 US Economy - PMI Indicators - The two major PMI indicators in the US showed a divergence. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49 [27] 3.2.3 US Economy - Employment - Employment data shows that the US job market is temporarily stable. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate in June was 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 [32] 3.2.4 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - In June, the overall US CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3% but up from the previous month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The overall US CPI data showed a moderate rebound. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year slightly adjusted downwards [36] 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 ETF and CFTC Positions - The data shows the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [39] 3.3.2 Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Gold Council, the total gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons. Mine production reached 3661 tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Recycled gold totaled 1370 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Total gold demand was 4554 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase. Investment demand increased by 25% to 1180 tons, reaching a four - year high. Gold used in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%). Jewelry consumption hit a record low, only 1877 tons, a - 9% year - on - year decrease. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [42] - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again due to factors such as slowing global economic growth, high gold prices, and a slight decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Low interest rates, high - valued stocks, a weak US dollar, and geopolitical risks are favorable for gold ETF, over - the - counter, and futures investments. Central banks may again purchase over 1000 tons of gold. However, economic slowdown and high prices may pressure jewelry demand. Technology - related gold demand is expected to remain stable due to continued investment in artificial intelligence [42] 3.3.3 Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. In 2022, the purchase volume reached a record high of 1082 tons, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [52] - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons. In Q4, in an environment of falling gold prices and Trump's inauguration, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase [52] - Reasons for central bank gold purchases: China aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure, hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promote RMB internationalization. Poland wants to prevent geopolitical risks and enhance financial security. Turkey uses gold to combat currency depreciation and inflation, reduce the risk of US dollar system sanctions, and as a hedging tool under low - interest - rate policies. India aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure and enhance international financial influence [52] 3.3.4 Silver - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Silver Association, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. Global silver demand was 36208 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The demand mainly included 21166 tons for industrial use (6146 tons for photovoltaic use), 6491 tons for silver jewelry, 1686 tons for silverware, and 5938 tons for investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [54] - For 2025, the World Silver Association predicts that the supply will continue to grow by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver use remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons. The growth of the photovoltaic industry may be limited in 2025, and the trend of using less or no silver is emerging due to high silver prices [54] 3.3.5 Silver Inventory - Recently, the total visible silver inventory in major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low [61]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are $3365.85, $39.03, $1426.00, $1261.00, $66.03, and $9947.00 respectively, with changes of -$47.70, -$0.29, -$22.00, -$10.00, $0.78, and $71.00 [1] - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 97.49, 1.17, 1.35, 147.01, and - respectively, with changes of 0.28, -0.00, -0.01, 0.49, and - [1][12] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver is not provided, the latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 1188.72, Gold ETF holdings are 957.09, Silver ETF holdings are 15207.82, SGE Silver inventory is 1327.23, SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction is 2, and SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction is 2 [2] - The changes in SHFE Silver inventory, Gold ETF holdings, SGE Gold deferred - fee payment direction are 0.24, 2.29, and 1.00 respectively, while the changes in COMEX Silver, Silver ETF holdings, SGE Silver inventory, and SGE Silver deferred - fee payment direction are not provided or 0.00 [2]

【黄金期货行情表现】 美国共和党众议员Luna发函司法部，发函司法部称鲍威尔两次作伪证，提出刑事指控。 美联储在其官网的"常见问题页面"新增了总部翻修工程的视频导览内容。 美联储观察:美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。美联储9月维持利率 不变的概率为41.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.2%。 【机构观点】 7月21日，沪金主力暂报784.74元/克，涨幅达0.63%，今日沪金主力开盘价784.70元/克，截至目前最高 787.80元/克，最低784.20元/克。 【宏观消息】 欧盟外交官:欧盟正在探索对美国关税采取更广泛的潜在反制措施，但仍优先与美国通过谈判解决问 题。 美国财长贝森特:更关心高质量的交易，而不是在8月1日前完成交易。不必与欧洲闹僵。 印尼:19%的美国关税可能在8月1日前生效，取决于联合声明。 近日随着对等关税生效在即，各经济体间博弈加剧，市场担情绪再起。另外，特朗普寻求各种手段施压 鲍威尔的努力仍在持续，这种施压一方面加剧了市场的不安，另一方面也令美联储将持续维持高利率的 预期有所松动。因此，在避险和流动性预期转好等因素之下，贵金属强势走高。 ...