Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by rising copper prices and positive economic indicators from China and the US [1][2] - As of July 1, 2025, copper prices reached a three-month high, with LME benchmark copper rising to $9,945 per ton, indicating a significant increase in demand and market confidence [1] - The China Securities believes that the copper market remains in a tight balance, with limited production increases and a need for further macroeconomic policy support to sustain price growth [2] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has shown strong performance, with notable increases in stocks such as Northern Copper and Zhongfu Industrial, reflecting overall positive sentiment in the sector [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 50.02% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among key players like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3] - The Nonferrous ETF fund closely tracks the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, providing investors with a means to invest in the sector's overall performance [2][4]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140/ton to $9,890/ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [1] - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the copper price increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - U.S. tariffs on copper, set at 25%, led to a significant reduction in LME copper inventory, with Asian warehouse stocks dropping from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a decrease of 70% [2] - LME European inventory also saw a sharp decline of 44% in June, nearing multi-year lows [2] - The global copper inventory is under pressure due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - China accounts for approximately 50% of global copper consumption, with increasing investments in power grids and infrastructure driving demand [2] - The rise in electric vehicle penetration is expected to further boost copper consumption in the future [2] - Recent PMI data from China indicates stable internal and external demand, supporting copper prices [2] Group 4: Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, aiming for 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [3] - Zijin Mining has confirmed copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, with production targets of 1.07 million tons in 2024 and 1.15 million tons in 2025 [3] - Minmetals Resources, a mid-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, aims for a copper equity output of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies [3] Group 5: Major Production Highlights - Jiangxi Copper, the world's largest single copper smelter, expects to produce 2.29 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, a 9.28% increase [4] - The company plans to increase production to 2.37 million tons in 2025, along with growth in gold and sulfuric acid production [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases, with COMEX copper prices rising over 25% since early April, nearing historical highs, which has positively impacted the A-share copper metal sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in global copper market prices, with COMEX copper trading significantly higher than LME copper by $1,200, and LME copper prices exceeding Shanghai copper by nearly 2,000 yuan [3]. - The anticipation of tariffs on copper imports by the U.S. has led to increased preemptive stockpiling by downstream manufacturers and intensified arbitrage trading, disrupting the global copper market balance [4]. - LME copper inventories have drastically decreased, with Asian warehouse stocks plummeting from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a reduction of 70%, while European stocks have also seen a significant decline of 44% [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current supply situation is tight, with LME copper's available inventory down approximately 80% since the beginning of the year, equating to just one day's global usage [8]. - The persistent shortage of copper in the spot market has led to a significant premium for spot prices over futures, indicating supply constraints [9]. - The potential for a short squeeze in the LME copper market is a concern, although the likelihood remains low due to new regulations aimed at preventing such occurrences [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of copper market squeezes, such as the 2021 event, have shaped current market dynamics, with lessons learned influencing regulatory changes [12][15]. - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains bullish, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like electric grid investments and the burgeoning electric vehicle market [16][17]. - Major Chinese copper mining companies, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, are expected to see significant production increases, contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Trump's plan to arrange a shadow chairman before Powell's term ends to promote rapid interest rate cuts, along with the negative final Q1 GDP growth and decreased May personal consumption in the US, increased the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Rising interest rate cut expectations and the weak US dollar boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, the global copper concentrate supply shortage was more severe than expected, LME visible inventories declined continuously, the LME0 - 3 BACK structure was crowded, and domestic social inventories were low. The tightened global refined copper balance provided a solid bottom and upward support for copper prices in the medium term [2]. - Overall, the intensified stagflation risk in the US, the weakening US dollar, and the slightly rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year provided a good basis for copper prices to rise in the short term. The calming of the Middle - East situation increased the capital market's risk appetite for bulk assets. The US's desire to revitalize the manufacturing industry elevated copper to a strategic asset. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage persisted, the long - term TC benchmark price for the second half of the year between Antofagasta and some Chinese smelters dropped to $0, global visible inventories were at a low level and declining, there was a certain risk of a short squeeze in LME0 - 3, and the global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an upward - fluctuating channel and gradually open up upward space in the short term [3][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From June 20th to June 27th, LME copper rose from $9,660.50/ton to $9,879.00/ton, a 2.26% increase; COMEX copper rose from 483.4 cents/pound to 512.5 cents/pound, a 6.02% increase; SHFE copper rose from 77,990 yuan/ton to 79,920 yuan/ton, a 2.47% increase; international copper rose from 69,170 yuan/ton to 71,250 yuan/ton, a 3.01% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly from 8.07 to 8.09, the LME spot premium dropped from $274.99/ton to $240.67/ton, a 12.48% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 120 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 27th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 445,288 tons, a 3.49% decrease from June 20th. LME inventory decreased by 7,925 tons to 91,275 tons, a 7.99% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 8,084 short tons to 209,281 short tons, a 4.02% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,532 tons, a 19.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 63,200 tons, a 4.98% increase [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The weakening US dollar and the tightened global refined copper balance supported copper prices. As of June 27th, the total global inventory decreased, and the decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the weakening US dollar [8]. - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the consideration of replacing him increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and boosting the metal market. The US economy showed signs of stagflation or shallow recession, and the Fed might resume interest rate cuts in the future. The cease - fire in the Middle - East was a positive sign for the capital market [9]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: The global copper concentrate supply shortage persisted. Some small and medium - sized smelters in China reduced production slightly, and new production capacity might be postponed. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, which could offset the decline in demand from traditional industries. The global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year [10] 3. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In April, Peru's copper production reached 220,200 tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the cumulative production was 886,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Las Bambas copper mine became the third - largest copper mine in Peru [12]. - **Western Mining's Project**: Western Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, received approval for its third - phase project. After completion, the ore - processing scale will increase to 30 million tons/year, and the annual copper metal output is expected to reach 180,000 - 200,000 tons [13]. - **Antofagasta's Expansion**: Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine has produced over 8.5 million tons of copper. After the first - phase expansion, two new projects are in progress. The company's copper production guidance for 2025 is 660,000 - 700,000 tons [14]. - **Copper Rod Market**: The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly. The copper rod market in East and South China was weak, and the start - up rate of copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in early July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and the trends of copper premiums, spreads, and import profits and losses [19][22][26]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices increased by 0.6%, reaching $9,754 per ton [1] Group 1 - The rise in copper prices indicates a positive trend in the metal market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper futures prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions from halted mining operations and a significant drop in copper inventories to a one-year low [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Mining operations have been paused, leading to concerns over copper supply shortages [1] - Copper inventories have decreased to a one-year low, indicating tightening supply conditions in the market [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The potential for further increases in copper prices is being questioned, given the current supply constraints and inventory levels [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have reached a two-week high, driven by a significant decline in inventory levels, raising questions about the sustainability of this price increase [1] - Ongoing trade tensions remain a potential risk factor for the copper market, which could impact future price movements [1] Group 1 - The recent drop in copper inventory has contributed to the upward pressure on copper prices [1] - The current price trend indicates a potential bullish sentiment in the copper market, contingent on inventory levels and external economic factors [1] - Trade tensions are highlighted as a looming concern that could affect market stability and investor confidence in copper prices [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices are expected to challenge the $9,950 mark as LME copper inventories hit an 11-month low, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis may act as an invisible driver for copper prices, influencing market dynamics [1] Group 1 - LME copper inventories have reached their lowest level in 11 months, suggesting tightening supply conditions [1] - The anticipated rise in copper prices to $9,950 reflects market speculation and potential demand increases [1] - The U.S. debt crisis is highlighted as a possible factor affecting copper market trends, potentially leading to increased volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The energy trader, Mercuria, anticipates record copper prices to emerge soon, rather than later [1] Group 1 - Mercuria's forecast indicates a bullish outlook for copper prices, suggesting a significant upward trend in the near future [1] - The company emphasizes that the anticipated price surge is not a distant expectation but rather imminent [1]

伦铜日内涨幅达2.00%，现报9543.50美元/吨。 ...