Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Cautious about a pullback". [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand tight - balance logic drives copper prices to continue rising, but sharp increases may lead to a phased pullback. In the medium to long - term, the copper price trend is bullish. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On January 2, 2026, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile went on strike, with expected production dropping by 70%. After entering 2026, copper smelters can't profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. By - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points if there is no production cut. In December 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month (6.8%) and 7.54% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 137.20 tons year - on - year (11.38%). [1] - Downstream copper products are mostly in the year - end accounting period. After the continuous rise of copper prices, procurement is cautious. The copper foil market has stronger demand than other copper products due to the hot terminal market. AI computing power and technology concepts support copper prices. Whether the new energy vehicle market is affected by the purchase tax and its impact on the raw material end need to be monitored. [1] - Geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela boost market risk - aversion sentiment and the demand expectation for copper. Mine accidents intensify concerns about the supply side. [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, rising during the day. [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 255 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 180 yuan/ton. On December 29, 2025, the LME official price was 12,269.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 36.5 US dollars/ton. [4] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of January 5, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 44.96 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.58 US cents/pound. [7] - SHFE copper inventory is 93,300 tons, an increase of 2,989 tons from the previous period. Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory is 100,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 146,100 tons, an increase of 3,525 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 503,400 short tons, an increase of 3,532 short tons from the previous period. [10]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 continues to support upward movement in copper prices [4]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, domestic copper social inventory increased by 23%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7% [5]. - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 16.7% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% week-on-week, with LME copper inventory at 145,000 tons, down 7.4% [5]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton week-on-week [6]. - In October 2025, China's refined copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - Global refined copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 1.938 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.9% month-on-month [6]. Smelting - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of December 31, 2025, was -44.96 USD/ton, down 0.1 USD/ton week-on-week, at its lowest since September 2007 [7]. - In November, electrolytic copper imports were 271,000 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month and 24.7% year-on-year, while exports were 143,000 tons, up 116.8% month-on-month and 1128.1% year-on-year [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rate to 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - The air conditioning sector, accounting for about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to have production increases of 11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% for January to March 2026 [8]. - Copper rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 50.2%, up 6.7 percentage points month-on-month but down 4.7% year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of December 31, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts decreased by 16% week-on-week, with a total of 208,000 contracts [9]. - The open interest is at the 61st percentile since 1995, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 67,000 contracts, up 3.5% week-on-week, at the 91st percentile since 1990 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from BMI indicate that tightening supply and robust demand will continue to support copper prices, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December and ongoing concerns about supply constraints [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - BMI forecasts an average copper price of $11,000 per ton for this year and $12,500 per ton for next year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The optimism surrounding copper prices is further fueled by the potential implementation of industry tariffs [1] - The re-emergence of tariff pressures in the U.S. could lead to increased volatility in the copper market [1] Group 3: Regulatory Outlook - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce is set to provide an update on the domestic copper market by June 30, which will influence the decision on whether to impose a 15% global tariff on refined copper by 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028 [1]

沪铜早间小幅高开，日内行情震荡走高，收盘上涨2.68%。金属市场多头氛围笼罩，铜市矿紧局面难 改，铜价重回十万关口上方，国内社会库存继续累积，但现货转为升水局面， 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，前期上行主要反映预期紧张，目前非美地区尚未兑现，预期 边际缓和但方向未改变，且一季度难言证伪，预计铜价保持宽幅波动。 （文华综合） 由于铜价重心高企，此前国内下游需求表现不佳，社会库存连连累积，现货维持大幅贴水局面，周初国 内社库累积势头维持，不过今日国内铜现货转为升水局面。据smm分析，有库存贸易商考虑电解铜现货 市场情况以及各自资金成本，挺价惜售。结合日内市场采购情绪较节前略微回升，促进现货成交，总体 现货升贴水上抬，由贴转升。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费延续承压走弱姿态，市场交易情绪低迷并未有明显改善。月初海外再传供应 扰动，据悉在智利北部的Capstone Copper公司旗下Mantoverde铜金矿的数百名矿工举行罢工，因主要工 会与公司之间就新的劳动合同的谈判破裂，矿紧担忧继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but supply-demand tightness in 2026 is expected to support upward price movement [1] - The report highlights a significant drop in the operating rate of cable enterprises, reaching a six-year low in December 2025, which may suppress demand despite rising copper prices [1][3] - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper prices due to tightening supply and improving demand [4] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: - China's copper smelting capacity growth may be limited due to regulatory measures [1] - December 2025 saw a 7.5% year-on-year increase in China's electrolytic copper production, totaling 1.1781 million tons [3][64] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap [2][58] - **Demand**: - The operating rate of cable enterprises was reported at 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [3][76] - Air conditioning production is expected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating potential demand growth [3][92] Inventory Summary - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 23.4% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7.4% [2][26] - As of December 31, 2025, global copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% from the previous week [2][26] Futures Market Summary - The active copper contract on SHFE saw a 15.9% decrease in open interest, indicating reduced trading activity [4][34] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 3.5%, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders [4][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum, suggesting a positive outlook for these companies in the context of rising copper prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of opening low and rising, with a decline at the close. The 2026 copper concentrate processing fee long - term agreement price of zero has boosted market sentiment, and copper prices have risen for several days. However, due to factors such as the squeeze on copper product profits, a decline in capacity utilization, and the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, the upward momentum has been affected. Nevertheless, the strong upward trend of copper remains unchanged [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. President Trump's remarks about the Fed and the expected announcement of the Fed chairperson in January have an uncertain impact on the market. The 2026 copper concentrate processing fee long - term agreement price of zero has boosted copper prices. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 6.57 million tons month - on - month, a growth of 5.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. CSPT decided not to set a reference price for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in the first quarter of 2026. Copper foil remains highly prosperous due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new energy vehicles. The continuous increase in SHFE cathode copper inventory indicates a decline in downstream purchasing power [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and rose, with a decline at the close. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 255 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 180 yuan/ton. On December 29, 2025, the LME official price was 12,269.5 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 36.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on December 29, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 44.90 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.67 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 71,700 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons from the previous period. As of December 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 149,500 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 488,300 short tons, an increase of 5,380 short tons from the previous period [10].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Trend: Copper prices rose and then fell. SHFE copper reached over 100,000 yuan. Afternoon dives in silver, platinum, and palladium dragged copper prices back. Spot prices rose 3000 to 100,740 yuan, and the spot discount narrowed 10 to 330 yuan. Social inventories increased 2.12 to 21.48 tons over last Thursday. Spot import losses were 1648 yuan, and the export window was close to opening [9] - Operation Suggestion: The fundamental outlook is positive in the medium - term but weighed down by the short - term spot market. Copper prices are mainly driven by macro sentiment with expected increased volatility. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [9] Group 3: Industry News - Norfolk Metals: After approval at the 2025 November annual general meeting, the company issued and completed the placement of 760,209 fully - paid ordinary shares to Transcendence. As of Q4 2025, it had invested over 3 million Australian dollars in its Caremn copper project since June 2025 [9] - Goldman Sachs Forecast: Current copper prices reflect the expected US refined copper tariff (expected to be announced in mid - 2026 and implemented in 2027). The 2026 average price is forecasted at 11,400 US dollars/ton. In 2026, overseas inventories are expected to drop by 450,000 tons, but the US may release about 1.5 million tons of strategic stockpiles in the second half of 2026, pressuring prices down [9] - Aeris Resources: The company received official approval from the New South Wales Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure to develop its Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons with a copper grade of 2.0%, gold grade of 0.6 g/ton, and silver grade of 3 g/ton. The total mineral resource is 7.6 million tons [9][10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货101110，基差2250，升水期货； 偏多。 3、库存：12月29日铜库存减2450至154575吨，上期所铜库存较上周增15898吨至111703吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，高位大幅 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and risks have increased substantially [3][5] - The market sentiment has shifted, with有色金属 experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [4] - The high - level uncertainty of copper prices has risen significantly, and the risks in the later period are relatively high [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - During the Christmas holiday in the external market this week, trading was light, and market volatility increased. Precious metals speculation in the morning session drove the collective strength of non - ferrous metals, but the market declined in the afternoon. Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, and domestic spot copper also increased [4] - LME copper reached a new historical high, trading around $12,570. Shanghai copper reached a new high in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing slightly higher at 98,860. Trading volume increased while positions decreased, indicating a large divergence in market sentiment [5] Price and Basis - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,860, and the spot price was 101,290. The spot was at a premium of 2,430 points over futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 330 points, and spot trading was extremely poor. The LME spot premium widened to $20, and the external market spot demand was good [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose this week, and the Yangshan copper premium increased to $52.5, indicating an improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices remained at 7.87, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 1,021 points, with the external market ratio much higher than the domestic market [4] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased. The spot demand was average [4] Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5] Demand and Premium - Domestic and LME copper demand was not good, but the buying power of US copper was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. Recently, the US copper inventory has continued to rise. The US accelerated inventory accumulation, causing tension in the spot market, and the premium of US copper over LME copper decreased to around $155 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations with prices initially rising above 100,000 yuan per ton but later retreating due to a decrease in market optimism and increasing social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices rose, breaking the 100,000 yuan per ton mark, but closed with a narrower increase of 0.76% as market sentiment cooled [1] - The optimism in the market diminished, leading to a decline in copper prices, which followed the trend of precious metals [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The previous rise in copper prices was supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, resulting in a low U.S. dollar index and a surge in precious metals [1] - However, ongoing risk warnings from domestic and foreign exchanges have led to increased volatility in precious metals, further dampening market sentiment [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain weak, indicating a persistent tight supply situation [1] - Despite rising copper prices, downstream purchasing demand is low, leading to an ongoing expansion of spot discounts and accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the macroeconomic environment remains supportive due to the Fed's actions, allowing copper to maintain a strong trend [1] - Low inventory levels and resilient demand provide support for prices, but high price levels may suppress some physical buying, and the approaching year-end may lead to a seasonal decline in demand, potentially resulting in inventory accumulation [1]