Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that copper prices are expected to decline slightly due to changes in inventory dynamics and tariff impacts [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High copper prices in June were primarily driven by low inventory levels at exchanges, creating a soft squeeze in the market [1] - The implementation of the US 232 copper tariff in July has led to a decrease in inventory transportation demand, alleviating inventory pressures in non-US regions [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - CICC forecasts a slight decline in copper prices moving forward as the market adjusts to the new inventory and tariff conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and growth potential of Jincheng Mining (金诚信), particularly in its resource development sector, which has significantly contributed to its revenue and profit growth in recent years [3][6][11]. Financial Performance - Jincheng Mining expects to achieve a net profit of 10.7 billion to 11.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.6% to 82.8% [6]. - The company has shown consistent growth in net profit since 2019, with a notable increase in 2023 [6][8]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [11]. Resource Development Sector - The resource development sector has become a major growth driver, contributing over 40% of the company's gross profit [11][17]. - The production and sales of copper and phosphate rock have significantly increased, with copper production expected to reach 7.94 million tons in 2025 [22]. - The company plans to invest $750 million in the Lonshi East District mining project, with production expected to start in the fourth year after completion [25]. Market Dynamics - The global demand for copper is anticipated to remain strong due to declining average grades of copper ore and ongoing infrastructure projects in emerging markets [22][23]. - The resource development sector's gross margin is projected to be 42.3% in 2024, despite a 6 percentage point decline due to the underperformance of the Lubambe copper mine [20]. Capital Expenditure and Funding - Jincheng Mining plans to raise 2 billion yuan through convertible bonds to support its capital expenditure and expansion plans [41]. - The company has seen improvements in cash flow, allowing for a positive free cash flow situation in 2024 [34][38]. Contract and Order Growth - In 2024, the company signed new contracts worth approximately 11.5 billion yuan, which will support its mining service business [30][31]. - The company has increased its overseas revenue share to 73% in 2024, reflecting its focus on international expansion [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, still operates in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,614.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 169,930 hands, down 2,274 hands. The LME copper inventory is 109,625 tons, up 900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 77,995 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,185 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The imported quantity of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The imported quantity of unwrought copper and copper products is 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.8 billion yuan, up 1,042.416 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,510 million pieces, up 275 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.34%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.33%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.32%, down 0.0061%. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.68, up 0.018 [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of June was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, the number of newly registered motor vehicles in China was 16.88 million, among which the number of newly registered new - energy vehicles was 5.622 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2]

Core Insights - COMEX copper prices are at historical highs, raising questions about the future trajectory of copper prices and the potential impact of impending U.S. import taxes on copper [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current supply and demand dynamics in the copper market are under scrutiny as prices reach unprecedented levels [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Supply - side policy uncertainties are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment remains cautious before the US tariff is implemented. Demand is dominated by the off - season, with only the new energy sector providing some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On July 11, the SHFE main copper contract rose slightly by 50 yuan to 78,470 yuan/ton. Spot discounts continued to widen, with the premiums of premium copper and flat - water copper dropping to 0 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount was 0.95 dollars/ton, increasing the pressure on near - term spot. LME copper inventories surged by 1,578 tons to 23,307 tons, a recent high, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, highlighting inventory pressure. Although the LME copper price rebounded slightly to 9,682 dollars, trading volume and open interest both contracted, indicating a decline in market activity [2] 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: Supply from major mines in Chile and around the world shows significant differentiation. The US plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper increases the uncertainty of Chile's exports. Overall, the supply side is marginally looser, but policy risks are rising [3] - **Demand Side**: The off - season characteristics are significant, and structural differentiation is intensifying. The growth of copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry is expected to slow down after the over - demand in the first half of the year. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which increased by over 40% year - on - year, still support copper prices. Downstream industries generally maintain just - in - time procurement [3] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continue to accumulate. LME inventories increased by 1,971 tons compared to July 7, and SHFE and COMEX inventories also rose, reflecting a loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season [3] 3. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. Policy uncertainties on the supply side are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment is cautious before the US tariff is implemented. The off - season dominates demand, and only the new energy sector provides some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On July 11, 2025, the price of SMM 1 copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%) from the previous day. The SHFE price was 78,470 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.06%). The LME price was 9,663 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars (- 0.20%) [6] - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventories increased by 1,578 tons (7.26%) to 23,307 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 625 tons (0.58%) to 108,725 tons, and COMEX inventories increased by 3,061 short tons (1.32%) to 234,204 short tons [6] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 11, Antofagasta's CEO saw opportunities in US copper projects under the 50% tariff. Chile's mining minister said the government had no exact information on tariff implementation [7] - On July 11, data showed that Codelco's copper production in May increased by about 16.5% year - on - year to 13.01 tons, and BHP's Escondida mine production surged by about 24.4% to 13.2 tons, while Collahuasi's production decreased by 16.9% to 38,400 tons [7] - On July 11, it was reported that on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. Chile, supplying about 70% of US copper imports in 2024, is at the center of this trade storm [8] - On July 11, Canadian copper producer Hudbay Minerals temporarily stopped Snow Lake's operations due to wildfires [8] - In Q2 2025, Kamoa - Kakula's Phase I, II, and III concentrators processed 362 tons of ore, producing 11.2 tons of copper, a 11% year - on - year increase. The western area of the Kakula mine restarted mining in early June, and by mid - June, the mining capacity had reached 30 tons per month [9] 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [10][12][16]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets was 623.1 billion yuan for Shanghai and 835.6 billion yuan for Shenzhen [1] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector led the market gains, driven by a significant procurement project from China Mobile for humanoid biped robots, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking the largest single procurement in the domestic humanoid robot field [2] - In May, China's industrial robot production increased by 35.5% year-on-year, reaching 69,100 units, while service robot production grew by 13.8% to 1.2164 million units [2] - The export market share for China's industrial robots rose to second globally last year, with a 61.5% increase in exports in the first half of this year [2] Policy and Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to develop humanoid robots and improve common technology research and data infrastructure [3] - The Chinese robotics industry is positioned for growth due to recovering domestic and international demand, supportive policies, and enhanced product performance, suggesting a favorable long-term trend for domestic brands [3] Bond Market - Different maturities of bonds experienced adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.6710% and the 30-year yield at 1.8825%, both hitting a one-month high [4] - The issuance of long-term bonds by the Ministry of Finance exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in secondary market yields [4] Economic Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution measures may constrain production and impact employment and income, potentially affecting demand [6] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic activity amid weakening fundamentals and low inflation [6] Copper Market - The announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by Trump is expected to pressure copper prices, with a significant influx of arbitrage funds impacting both London and Shanghai copper prices [7] - Short-term demand for copper is recovering, with a 3.3 percentage point increase in copper rod operating rates to 67.0% [7] - Long-term, strong investment and consumption, along with supportive monetary policy, are expected to elevate copper prices [7] Gold Market - Trump's new tariffs on EU and Canadian goods may bolster gold prices as a safe-haven asset [8] - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in the global monetary system [8] - The outlook for gold remains strong due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit [9]

长周期来看，中金大宗商品团队认为铜价中枢稳步、扎实的抬升仍在进行时。就今年下半年而言，铜价 在10000美元/吨以上将再次面临需求侧的考验。维持9500-10500美元/吨的价格区间判断。（闻辉） 短期来看，华源证券研报认为，在低库存水平支撑和后续旺季到来，铜价下方仍有支撑，预计沪铜短期 将在7.7万-7.9万元/吨区间震荡运行。华西证券研报也指出，需求方面，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工 率环比上升3.26个百分点至67%，需求端来看，得益于前两日铜价回调，下游采购情绪有所小幅回暖。 "宏观层面财政货币双宽松基调依旧，全球权益市场不断创新高，商品市场也有反弹，美元也在持续贬 值，看好铜价。此外强势的供需基本面支撑铜价，中国宏观政策端或将持续发力，电力基建、新能源汽 车、家电消费等领域的刺激手段或将进一步扩大。"华西证券在研报中提到。 【环球网财经综合报道】上半年，铜价走势反复震荡。据上海钢联数据，国内电解铜价格在72073元/吨 至82725元/吨区间内波动。业内认为，国内控产能、反内卷消息不断，宏观情绪对市场形成利好，总体 来看，三季度宏观将有利于铜价走高。 华安期货研报指出，在上月举行的美联储会议上，美联储 ...

Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, copper prices declined. The US copper tariff policy had two unexpected changes: a 50% tariff rate and implementation between late July and early August. This high - tariff and fast - implementation policy ended the ongoing export - to - US arbitrage path, increased price pressure on LME copper, and caused inventory to show an inflection point. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on SHFE copper and short on LME copper [4][86]. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation settled at $0, severely hitting smelters' long - term profitability. Currently, domestic production remains high, and sulfuric acid and by - product profits barely cover losses, with an extremely unhealthy profit structure. On the demand side, the domestic off - season is deepening, spot premiums are falling from high levels, but due to the internal - external price difference, increased domestic exports lead to a weak expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME squeeze problem has eased, Asian warehouse inventories have increased, and premiums have declined [4][86]. - Copper prices saw a significant reduction in positions and a decline this week, indicating that most of the previous active long positions in the domestic market have left. There is still a lack of active short - selling power. It is necessary to monitor changes in LME copper. With insufficient domestic short - selling power and during the tariff game phase, macro expectations may continue to face pressure. Keep an eye on the progress of US copper tariffs. As copper prices closed in the negative on the weekly chart, continue to hold the strategy of selling near - month CALL options and buying far - month PUT options [4][86]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% month - on - month to 49%, while France's manufacturing PMI declined 2% month - on - month to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly in June, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The high tariff rate and fast implementation ended the export - to - US arbitrage path. The market profited from the short - term price difference decline of COMEX copper and LME copper. The implementation of the US copper tariff increased price pressure on LME copper, and inventory began to show an inflection point [4][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - According to ICSG data, in December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The 2024 market had a surplus of 301,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 52,000 tons in the previous year. In April 2025, global copper mine production was 1.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. From January to April 2025, cumulative copper mine production was 7.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import of copper ores and concentrates was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, copper concentrate data were generally lower than market expectations. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [27]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On July 11, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - $43.79 per dry ton, an increase of $0.46 per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2025. In 2025, the long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 3,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. In July 2025, it is expected that national electrolytic copper production will further increase, with a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 122,200 tons (11.88%) [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, China imported 292,700 tons of electrolytic copper, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 25.45%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 3.05 percentage points year - on - year. The average price difference between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 991 yuan per ton, a decrease of 558 yuan month - on - month. Due to the decline in copper prices, recycled copper rod enterprises' raw material inventory was relatively abundant, and the number of operating days increased. The weekly finished product inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises was 5,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 250 tons. The decline in copper prices significantly narrowed the price difference between scrap and refined copper rods, eliminating the economic benefits of recycled copper rods. Cable enterprises preferred to purchase refined copper rods from traders, and recycled copper rod enterprises faced increasing sales pressure [51]. Consumption - end - In 2024, from January to December, power source cumulative investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to May, power source cumulative investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - In 2024, in December, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to May, the air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The monthly production declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate slowed down, indicating that the industry entered the off - season [56]. - From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January to June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 12.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. Among them, domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 6.693 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total automobile sales. From January to June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of total automobile sales [61]. - In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 11, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 424,300 tons, a weekly increase of 23,500 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,700 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 234,200 tons. Domestic exports to LME led to overall inventory accumulation. As of July 10, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 78,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of July 8, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 39,604 lots, a weekly increase of 5,914 lots. The non - commercial long position was 80,843 lots, a weekly increase of 6,218 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,239 lots, a weekly increase of 304 lots. The speculation of a 50% tax rate on COMEX copper prices led to a rapid increase, with long - position holders adding positions and the net long position expanding [70]. Premium and Discount - As of July 11, the LME copper spot was at a discount of $21.57 per ton. The concern about LME copper squeeze was relieved, and the spot premium quickly changed to a discount pattern. With the increase in Asian warehouse inventories, the LME squeeze crisis eased. This week, copper prices declined, and downstream procurement sentiment improved, but due to the seasonal off - season, downstream orders improved limitedly. Shanghai's inventory decreased slightly this week, mainly consuming previously imported low - price goods. Next week, approaching the delivery date, holders will actively sell goods under the high monthly spread, and the SHFE copper spot discount will expand, but the discount range is expected to be limited. After the contract change, holders will start quoting at a premium of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, but actual transactions are unlikely to improve significantly [80]. Basis - As of July 11, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Grade 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 400 yuan per ton [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current copper mine supply remains tight, and although demand has slightly improved with the decline in copper prices, there is still significant uncertainty overall considering seasonal trends and the macro - environment. In the short term, due to the implementation of the tariff policy, copper prices are expected to remain under pressure [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - The processing fee remains in the negative range. The machine - operating rate of the enameled wire industry rose 1.47 percentage points to 81% week - on - week, and new order volume increased by 4.01 percentage points. It is expected to rise slightly to 81.07% next week. The copper cable enterprise operating rate was 71.52%, up 3.7 week - on - week. The weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises also rose to 67.00%, up 3.26 percentage points week - on - week [4]. 2. Macro - environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. Before August, copper that can reach the port will continue to flow to the US, and after August, the US demand for imported copper is expected to decrease significantly, making the copper supply in non - US markets more abundant. Last week, LME copper stocks increased by 11,000 tons to 108,700 tons, and COMEX copper stocks increased by 9,200 tons to 209,600 tons [4]. 3. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the closing price on Friday was 78,430 yuan/ton, about - 1.6% lower than the previous week. Affected by the tariff policy, the price of LME copper was also under pressure, but the price of CME copper increased by 10% [6].

铜价中长期或震荡上行 ◎记者 霍星羽 今年上半年，铜价先是震荡上行，4月初急剧下降，后又返身上行。上海钢联数据显示，上半年国内电 解铜价格在72073元/吨至82725元/吨的区间内震荡。展望下半年，业内人士认为，短期内，伦敦、纽约 两市期铜的价差或走阔。矿端扰动仍未休，铜的基本面仍然偏紧。若美联储下半年降息节奏符合市场预 期，铜价或获得宏观经济层面的支撑。中长期看，铜价或仍震荡上行。 短期内伦铜、沪铜补跌 美国总统特朗普7月8日表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露新关税生效具体 时间。 华鑫期货研究所所长章孜海在接受上海证券报记者采访时表示，目前纽约铜价较伦铜价格高出2500美 元/吨左右，两个交易所之间呈现非常割裂的状态。短期内，美国进口铜的成本跃升，纽约铜价或上 涨，而伦铜、沪铜近期因库存增加、资金离场，面临调整可能。 中信建投期货高级分析师张维鑫表示，伦敦金属交易所、纽约商品交易所、上海期货交易所三个市场价 格将有一定分歧，最终目标是伦铜、纽约铜价差达到50%左右，实现方式是美国铜价格增长放缓或轻微 下跌，同时沪铜、伦铜补跌。 也有一些国际巨头的铜产量同比下滑。2025年一季度， ...