Group 1 - The central bank of Kazakhstan indicates that due to high inflation, it will need to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy for a longer period than previously expected [1] - The possibility of raising the benchmark interest rate in necessary circumstances is not ruled out by the central bank [1]

金十数据6月4日讯，美国5月服务业出现近一年来首次萎缩，企业投入价格上涨，表明美国经济仍有可 能经历一段非常缓慢的增长和高通胀时期。美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三表示，美国非制造业PMI降 至49.9，跌破50大关，也是自2024年6月以来的最低水平。新订单指数从4月份的52.3降至46.4，可能是 由于与关税相关的领先优势带来的提振减弱。服务业客户认为，库存相较需求过高，这对短期内的经济 活动来说不是好兆头。供应商的交货表现继续恶化，工厂交货时间延长，表明供应链紧张，可能会因供 应短缺而推高通胀。企业也在寻求将关税转嫁给消费者。服务投入支付价格指数从4月份的65.1飙升至 68.7，为2022年11月以来的最高水平，进一步强化了这一点。多数经济学家预计，关税对通胀和就业的 冲击可能会在夏季所谓的硬经济数据中显现出来。 ISM调查：美国5月服务业意外收缩 通胀升温 ...

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

1、摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）对全球一系列金融和政治风险保持警惕。 2、戴蒙表示，由于利差较低，信贷目前是一个严重的风险，盈利预期可能会下降。 该行将允许客户交易比特币，但戴蒙表示他仍然"不太支持"、他仍然"不喜欢"比特币。 仍对高通胀和滞胀保持警惕，通货膨胀和滞胀的可能性比大多数人预想的要高。 地缘政治风险（戴蒙过去经常关注的问题）仍然非常高。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive time without change, amid persistent high inflation and risks of high unemployment [2] - Powell highlighted that tariff issues are significant factors affecting recent economic performance, and the government is beginning trade negotiations that could materially alter the current economic landscape [2] - Gold prices experienced fluctuations but remained within a range, with a focus on potential changes in the bullish trend in the upcoming trading days [2][3] Group 2 - The US dollar index showed little change, remaining in a low range, with attention on whether the 100 level will continue to exert downward pressure, which could lead to an increase in gold prices [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains strong as long as it stays above the Bollinger middle band support at 3360, with potential upward targets at 3400 and 3430 [3] - Domestic gold prices in China are advised to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions, with expectations of reaching 815 and possibly 820 in the short term [4] Group 3 - International silver prices have shown a clear upward trend, with recommendations to buy on pullbacks around the 32 level, targeting 33.5 in the near term [5] - Domestic silver in China has been fluctuating within a range, with a maximum range identified between 8200 and 8400, suggesting buying opportunities near the lower end of this range [5] - Crude oil prices are expected to face resistance at 60.5, with current prices around 57.7 indicating a potential for low-level fluctuations, while still maintaining a bullish outlook [6] Group 4 - Domestic fuel prices have shown an upward trend, with current prices around 2615, and expectations for further increases towards 2700 and 2800 [6]

机构：现在判断降息信号仍为时尚早 金十数据5月8日讯，Transunion副总裁兼美国研究咨询主管Michele Raneri表示，美联储按兵不动很可能 是因为高通胀以及其他近期经济趋势的影响，例如强劲的4月非农就业报告。尽管今年晚些时候仍有可 能降息，但当前的经济形势较为复杂，现在判断是否会降息以及何时降息还为时过早。 ...

美联储FOMC声明：高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.77%, S&P 500 futures down 0.93%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.21% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.89%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.22%, France's CAC40 down 0.52%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.70% [2] - WTI crude oil increased by 2.15% to $58.36 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 2.06% to $61.47 per barrel [2] Company News - Goldman Sachs indicates that recent earnings reports from major tech companies in the AI sector have boosted investor confidence, suggesting that recent pullbacks present a buying opportunity [3] - DoorDash reported Q1 revenue growth of 20.7% to $3.03 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $590 million, exceeding market expectations [4] - Philips lowered its annual profit forecast due to the impact of US tariffs, estimating a net effect of €250 million to €300 million (approximately $283 million to $340 million) [5] - Palantir's Q1 revenue surged 39% to $884 million, leading to an upward revision of its 2025 revenue forecast to approximately $3.9 billion, a 36% year-over-year increase [5] - Ford's Q1 revenue fell 5% to $40.7 billion but exceeded analyst expectations, while the company withdrew its full-year profit guidance [6] - Apple is expected to launch AI features in China with support from Alibaba and Baidu, integrating local compliance mechanisms [7] - WeRide expanded its strategic partnership with Uber to deploy autonomous Robotaxi services in 15 cities over the next five years [8] - The US Department of Justice is pushing for the forced divestiture of Google's online advertising business, citing illegal monopoly practices [9]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发表报告表示，美联储官员近期对货币政策调整表现出高度谨慎，强调需等待 更多数据支持后再采取行动。总体而言，高通胀、关税政策的不确定性以及劳动力市场等潜在风险是当 前决策的核心考量。 高盛指出，自3月联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议以来，多位官员与主席鲍威尔的立场一致，认为当前 政策"处于良好位置"，需等待更明确的经济数据后再决定是否调整利率。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表 示："宁愿缓慢行动但方向正确，也不愿快速行动却犯错。"她提到，如果6月前能获得"明确且有说服力 的数据"，FOMC可能会调整利率，但前提是"确定正确的行动方向"。 就目前而言，关税对经济的影响成为讨论焦点。高盛表示，美联储官员普遍意识到，关税的实际经济影 响比预期更大。虽然理论上关税可能只会导致价格一次性上涨，但也存在引发更持久通胀的风险。美联 储主席鲍威尔指出，关税很可能至少会导致通胀暂时上升，其通胀影响可能更持久，供应链中断等因素 可能使一次性通胀冲击持续更长时间。圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也提到，关税变化对价格和经济活动 有多种直接和间接影响，间接和第二轮效应可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 。 美联储理事沃勒指出，在"高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about further economic deterioration have led U.S. private credit investors to sell assets at significant discounts, with some transactions occurring at half the asset's face value [1] Group 1: Discount Trading and Investor Behavior - Private credit market investors are selling fund shares at notable discounts, starting from 10% and dropping to as low as 50% [2] - The current sell-off is characterized as a proactive risk-hedging behavior by investors rather than a result of forced liquidations or severe liquidity crises [2] - There has been no significant deterioration in credit quality observed so far, but concerns about expanding discounts may arise as economic conditions worsen [2] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - The U.S. private credit market has rapidly expanded to a size of $1.6 trillion, raising concerns about asset quality during economic downturns due to a relatively lax regulatory environment [2] - Issues with "loose underwriting" in private credit loans could lead to high single-digit default rates for high-yield debt and potentially double-digit default rates for private credit [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning - The current situation is viewed as more severe than during the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to higher inflation pressures that could amplify economic shocks [4] - The potential economic downturn is compared to the bursting of the internet bubble, with expectations of a similarly severe impact [4] - Oak Tree Capital is cautiously positioning itself in the credit market, maintaining liquidity to capitalize on larger investment opportunities as they arise [4]