Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed significant measures to enhance enterprise development, including strengthening the innovation role of enterprises and expanding the supply of quality goods and services [1] - The conference emphasized the importance of "Artificial Intelligence+" to accelerate the integration of AI technology into industries, enhancing product iteration speed and manufacturing efficiency [2][4] - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in key regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is expected to facilitate resource sharing and reduce innovation costs for companies [4] Group 2 - Financial support is crucial for enterprises, with recent policies enhancing financial backing for technological innovation; as of September, the proportion of new technology loans reached 30.5% of total new loans, with a 22.3% year-on-year increase in loans to tech SMEs [5] - The conference prioritized domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market as a key task for the upcoming year, which is essential for enterprise production activities [6] - The conference's focus on expanding the supply of quality goods and services is expected to drive companies to enhance product adaptability and better meet consumer needs, especially in the context of rising domestic consumption [7] Group 3 - The conference's initiatives to improve the business environment include the establishment of a unified national market and the promotion of fair competition, which are expected to enhance industry governance and reduce irrational competition [10] - Measures to clear government debts to enterprises are set to improve the business environment, with a target to resolve all debts under 500,000 yuan by the end of 2025 [10] - The conference's focus on optimizing the market environment and supporting platform enterprises aims to boost market confidence and stimulate high-quality development across various sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, highlighting structural consumption opportunities and potential growth in various sectors [3][5][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption, particularly in personal care, pet products, and IP-driven trendy toys, as key areas for investment [3][5][6]. - Export opportunities are expected to improve as external disturbances diminish, with a focus on quality stocks in the export chain [3][11]. - The AI glasses segment is experiencing rapid development, with major players releasing new products that could benefit leading lens manufacturers [3][18]. - The paper industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and pricing, with a focus on companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and others [3][20][22]. - The home furnishing sector is undergoing consolidation, with a focus on companies that offer high dividend safety margins [3][23][25]. Summary by Sections Domestic Consumption - The report highlights the rise of domestic brands in personal care, recommending companies like Baiya and Dengkang for their strong offline channel competitiveness and product upgrades [6][7]. - In the pet products sector, companies like Yiyi and Yuanfei are recommended for their robust growth and global expansion strategies [7][8]. - The IP trendy toy market is driven by self-reward consumption, with companies like Chuangyuan and Guangbo positioned to benefit from this trend [8][9][10]. Export Opportunities - The report notes that external disturbances are lessening, with U.S. interest rate cuts expected to boost furniture consumption [11][13]. - Companies like Yutong Technology and Yongyi are highlighted for their strong global supply chain and potential for growth in overseas markets [13][14][15]. AI Glasses - The report discusses the transition from AI to AR glasses, with new products from Meta and others leading the market [18][19]. - Companies like Kangnait Optical are expected to benefit from the growing demand for integrated lens solutions [18]. Paper Industry - The report indicates a stabilization and potential rebound in paper prices, with companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons being key players to watch [20][22]. - The global market for pulp molding is also highlighted, with growth opportunities due to environmental considerations [16]. Home Furnishing - The report notes that the home furnishing industry is seeing accelerated consolidation, with companies like Gujia and Sophia being recommended for their strong market positions and dividend safety [23][25][27]. - The impact of real estate policies on the home furnishing market is discussed, with expectations for improved demand and valuation recovery [24][33].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of "pressure above and support below," with overall trading volume continuing to shrink, while only certain thematic sectors remain active [1] - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industries shows significant divergence, with non-ferrous metals and communications being the top performers, each with a year-to-date increase exceeding 85% as of December 23 [1] - In contrast, the food and beverage, coal, and beauty care sectors are underperforming, with the food and beverage sector experiencing a year-to-date decline of over 7%, potentially facing five consecutive years of negative returns if the trend does not reverse in the remaining trading days [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, institutions are optimistic about a potential turnaround in the food and beverage sector, noting that stock price turning points often precede fundamental turning points [2] - Guosen Securities highlights that the food and beverage sector has characteristics of "low base, low institutional holdings, and low valuation," and expects investment opportunities in this sector due to its relative valuation reaching a new low since 2011 [2] - Investment options include the food and beverage ETF (515170.SH) and its linked funds, as well as a food ETF that excludes liquor, which is currently being launched [2]

Core Viewpoint - The payment environment in China is becoming increasingly convenient, which is essential for stimulating consumer demand and supporting economic growth [1] Group 1: Payment Convenience for Foreign Tourists - Foreign tourists can now use their international cards directly for payments, eliminating the need to exchange large amounts of cash at airports [3] - Alipay's collaboration with American Express has expanded its "bind foreign card" service to cover seven major international card brands, achieving near-complete global coverage [3] - UnionPay's "Jinxiu Action 2025" has facilitated direct connections for 213 offline aggregation codes with foreign wallets, leading to a 103% increase in transaction volume and a 31% increase in transaction value for foreign card usage year-on-year [3] Group 2: Payment Solutions for the Elderly - The aging population in China necessitates improved payment solutions for the elderly, which is a significant aspect of consumer welfare [4] - Financial institutions have introduced various services tailored to the elderly, such as the "零钱包" (small change wallet), with 1.586 million issued in Chongqing alone by Q3 this year [4] - The introduction of "senior mode" in mobile banking apps aims to bridge the digital divide for older adults, reflecting a shift towards more inclusive financial services [4] Group 3: Policy Support for Payment Facilitation - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to enhance payment services for the elderly and foreign visitors, emphasizing the importance of payment convenience in boosting consumption [2] - Recent policies have further integrated payment facilitation with other services like visa and communication, highlighting a strategic approach to improving the payment environment for foreigners [2] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The advancements in payment convenience for both foreign tourists and the elderly are seen as vital for unlocking consumer spending and enhancing economic vitality [5][6] - Efforts to improve rural payment infrastructure and adapt payment systems to local needs are also underway, indicating a comprehensive approach to payment facilitation across different demographics [5]

内需是拉动经济增长主动力与稳定锚。今年以来，针对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区、各部门按 照党中央决策部署，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，及时出台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需求、促 进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于支持经济平稳运行发挥了重要作用。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议提出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加 深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 在部署2026年经济工作时，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在了首位。"大国经济的重要 特征是回旋余地大，内部可循环，能够独立自主、自立自强。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央 农办主任韩文秀表示，要进一步开拓视野、创新思路，努力在扩大消费和投资、发展科技和产业、促进 城乡融合和区域协调发展等方面，培育形成更多新的增长点，开辟发展新空间。 投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。根据中央经济工作会议部署，2026年要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央 预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工 具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。 在国家政策和金融管理部门的指引 ...

内需是拉动经济增长主动力与稳定锚。今年以来，针对经济运行中面临的风险挑战，各地区、各部 门按照党中央决策部署，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，及时出台和有效落实一系列扩大国内需 求、促进产业升级、畅通经济循环的政策措施，对于支持经济平稳运行发挥了重要作用。 近期召开的中央经济工作会议提出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响 加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。 在部署2026年经济工作时，会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"放在了首位。"大国经济的 重要特征是回旋余地大，内部可循环，能够独立自主、自立自强。"中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、 中央农办主任韩文秀表示，要进一步开拓视野、创新思路，努力在扩大消费和投资、发展科技和产业、 促进城乡融合和区域协调发展等方面，培育形成更多新的增长点，开辟发展新空间。 投资是扩大内需的重要抓手。根据中央经济工作会议部署，2026年要推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加 中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金 融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力。高质量推进城市更新。 在国家政策和金融管理部门的指引 ...

Economic Overview - Hunan's economy is showing overall stability and quality improvement under the leadership of the central government, with a focus on expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative [1] - The provincial government aims to boost consumption and investment, with a particular emphasis on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [7] Consumption Trends - The annual output value of Hunan's cuisine industry has surpassed 600 billion yuan, capturing nearly 20% of the national market share [7] - Nighttime consumption in Changsha accounts for 60% of total daily consumption, significantly contributing to local employment [9] - The "used for new" policy has led to substantial growth in retail sales, with telecommunications equipment sales up by 51.2% and home appliances by 34.2% [12] Investment Initiatives - The Hisense (Changsha) home appliance industrial park, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, is expected to enhance regional industrial collaboration [13] - Hunan has planned 289 key construction projects this year, aiming to stabilize effective investment [13] - The return of Hunan businessmen has led to the establishment of 1,926 new registered enterprises, with total funds reaching 542.8 billion yuan [13] New Consumption Models - The opening of the first city duty-free shop in Changsha has attracted over 200,000 customers, generating more than 3.5 million yuan in revenue [18] - Innovative consumption experiences, such as AI glasses, have seen significant sales growth, indicating a shift towards technology-driven consumer products [18] Urban Development and Quality of Life - Urban renewal projects have commenced, benefiting nearly 200,000 households and enhancing living conditions [21] - Hunan is actively promoting the development of the elderly care industry and cultural tourism, aiming to transform the aging population into a growth sector [21][22]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 22 年 月 日 投资策略 跨年行情的复盘与展望 一、策略专题：跨年行情的复盘与展望 回顾过去 10 年出现过的跨年行情，指数层面主要有以下结论： （1）跨年行情并非确定性事件，过去 10 年共出现过 5 次跨年行情，出现 概率仅 50%。 （2）宏观经济情况大概率不影响跨年行情的出现，历史上 5 次跨年行情 中，有 2 次处于宏观经济较好的阶段（2018 年、2021 年），而 3 次则处 于基本面偏弱的阶段（2019 年、2020 年、2023 年）。 （3）流动性宽松与叙事积极变化可能是跨年行情的重要条件：5 次中有 3 次都处于宏观流动性宽松阶段，包括 2019 年、2023 年的央行全面降准与 2020 年的海外美联储降息，此外 2021 年也明确政策操作"不急转弯"； 5 次中有 4 次都出现了重要的叙事变化，2019 年、2020 年处于中美经贸 关系的改善阶段，2021 年拜登当选美国总统，同样指向中美经贸关系恶 化风险的减弱，2023 年防疫政策的逐渐优化提振了国内经济增长信心； 此外，股市流动性也形成助力，2021 年公 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is expected to show resilience and vitality despite external challenges and domestic supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the quality of goods and services [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic development, aiming to build a strong domestic market [1] - The strategy includes increasing the supply of high-quality goods and services, which is seen as essential for modernizing China's economy [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current issue in China's consumption market has shifted from "supply shortage" to "supply-demand mismatch," where consumers seek high-quality and personalized products that are not adequately supplied [2] - Expanding the supply of quality goods and services is not merely about increasing quantity but about aligning production with consumer needs, enhancing product quality, and improving service professionalism [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer spending is transitioning from "survival-type" to "enjoyment-type," with a significant increase in service consumption, projected to reach 46.1% of per capita spending by 2024 [3] - There is a growing demand for high-quality domestic products and green intelligent products, indicating a shift towards quality-oriented consumption [3] Group 4: Challenges in Supply Expansion - Key challenges in expanding the supply of quality goods and services include avoiding supply-demand misalignment, preventing quality traps, and addressing regional imbalances in supply availability [4][5] - It is crucial to ensure that supply is guided by market demand, emphasizing innovation and quality while also balancing urban and rural supply [4][5]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year" plan emphasizes high-quality economic and social development, requiring a comprehensive and systematic approach to ensure its authority, foresight, and operability [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Principles and Guidelines - The planning process must focus on high-quality development, aiming for more efficient, equitable, sustainable, and secure growth [2]. - A holistic view is essential, balancing domestic and international contexts while recognizing both advantages and challenges [2]. - The plan should prioritize people's livelihoods, addressing urgent issues in employment, education, healthcare, housing, and elderly care [2]. Group 2: Key Strategic Tasks and Development Directions - Emphasis on technological innovation and building a modern industrial system, with a focus on self-reliance in technology and addressing critical areas like chips and industrial software [3]. - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption while encouraging private investment and removing industry barriers [3]. - The plan aims for comprehensive reforms and high-level opening-up, enhancing the market economy and aligning with international trade standards [3]. - A commitment to green transformation and safety, integrating environmental sustainability with national security across all planning processes [3]. Group 3: Implementation Measures and Pathways - Innovative planning approaches are necessary, focusing on practical development platforms and major projects in high-growth sectors like artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace [4]. - Engaging the public in the planning process is crucial, ensuring that the voices of the people are heard and considered [4]. - Coordination among various regions and departments is vital to create a unified planning system that avoids competition and promotes complementary functions [5].