英伟达宣布向OpenAI投资千亿美元，苹果被韦德布什证券上调目标价，美联储官员在降息上"泼冷水"……当地时间周一，美股市场消息频出。 截至收盘，美股三大指数齐创历史新高，上演了一出低开高走。道琼斯指数上涨0.14%，报46381.54点，标普500指数涨0.44%，报6693.75点，纳斯达克指 数上涨0.7%，报22788.98点。 大型科技股涨跌互现 从热门科技股来看，苹果股价上涨4.31%。韦德布什证券对苹果给出乐观展望，鉴于iPhone17系列的强劲需求，将其目标股价上调至310美元。该公司表 示，与iPhone16系列相比，iPhone17系列需求增长了10%到15%，预计新款机型产量将增加20%。 特斯拉股价上涨1.91%，盘中一度涨超4%。消息面上，美国总统特朗普与特斯拉CEO马斯克关系或出现"修复"，两人共同出席了悼念查理·柯克的活动， 其间进行了简短交流并握手。此外，特斯拉已获准在亚利桑那州开始进行配备安全监控器的自动驾驶汽车测试，这是特斯拉寻求将其Robotaxi（自动驾驶 出租车）业务扩展到奥斯汀以外的城市和州的关键一步。 此外，奈飞微涨0.03%，谷歌A下跌0.86%，亚马逊下跌1.6 ...

从当前到10月28日至29日的货币政策会议期间，可供官员评估经济状况的新增数据相对有限，就业 市场面临的风险程度可能将再次决定是否会降息25个基点。不过，对通胀走向的担忧，可能成为鲍 威尔如何平衡美联储内部分歧的关键。 降息前景分歧显著 自去年12月以后，美联储终于再次按下了降息键。然而，美联储官员就是否有必要进一步降息存在 明显分歧。尽管利率中值预期显示，到2025年底前还将再降息两次（每次25个基点），但利率点阵 图显示有7位政策制定者认为不需要再实施降息。 上周二加入美联储理事会并投出唯一反对票的白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）周一 发表讲话称，有必要大幅降息，以避免劳动力市场遭受不必要的损害。他认为，今年联邦经济政策的 2025.09. 23 本文字数：2402，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周重启宽松周期后， 本周包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的超过10位联储官员将发表公开讲话。 调整已显著压低了理论上的 "中性利率"。 "我认为适当的联邦基金利率应在 2.5%左右，比当前政策 利率低近2个百分点。" 周 一 两 位 地 方 联 储 官 员 表 达 了 对 继 ...

2025.09. 23 本文字数：1476，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受科技股反弹及黄金价格创下历史新高的推动，美国主要股指均呈现上涨态势。截至收盘，道指涨 66.27点，涨幅0.14%，报46381.54点，纳指涨0.70%，报22788.98点，标普500指数涨0.44%， 报6693.75点。 明星科技股中，英伟达涨3.9%，苹果涨4.3%，甲骨文涨6.3%，特斯拉涨1.9%，微软跌0.7%，谷歌 跌0.9%，Meta和亚马逊跌1.7%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近1%，阿里巴巴、百度涨逾1.0%，网易涨0.2%，拼多多跌0.7%，京东跌 3.3%。 多位美联储官员发表讲话，克利夫兰联储主席哈马克（Beth Hammack）周一表示，当前通胀率仍 高于美联储2%的目标水平，且居高不下，因此美联储在取消限制性货币政策时需采取 "非常谨慎" 的 态度。"我认为我们距离中性利率仅一步之遥，而我担心的是，如果我们解除对经济的这种限制，经 济可能会再次开始过热。" 里士满联储主席巴尔金（Tom Barkin）表示，关税上调中有"一小部分"正在传导至消费者身上，尽 管这些关税真正反映到价格水平需 ...

在上周重启宽松周期后，本周包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的超过10位联储官员将发表公开讲话。 从当前到10月28日至29日的货币政策会议期间，可供官员评估经济状况的新增数据相对有限，就业市场 面临的风险程度可能将再次决定是否会降息25个基点。不过，对通胀走向的担忧，可能成为鲍威尔如何 平衡美联储内部分歧的关键。 今年FOMC票委穆萨勒姆在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会发表讲话时表示："上周我支持降息，这是一项预防性 举措，旨在维护充分就业的劳动力市场，防止其进一步疲软。然而，我认为在政策不变得过度宽松的前 提下，进一步降息的空间有限，我们应谨慎行事。"他表示，通胀率持续高于美联储目标的风险依然存 在，这意味着基准利率需要维持在足够高的水平，以抵消物价上涨的风险。 "货币政策应继续抑制通胀持续高于目标的态势，" 穆萨勒姆强调，"尽管失业率可能面临风险，但除非 这些风险开始显现，否则过度强调就业市场…… 可能弊大于利。" 博斯蒂克在接受媒体采访时表示，鉴于当前通胀率仍比美联储目标高出约1个百分点，上周的降息可能 是他认为今年唯一需要实施的一次降息。"我对长期居高不下的通胀感到担忧。对我而言，继续传递通 胀问题的重要性至关重要。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially implementing reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, but large-scale rate cuts are deemed unrealistic [1][5][6]. Monetary Policy Outlook - PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity and lower overall financing costs, supporting economic recovery [1]. - The current Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged at 3.0% for one-year and 3.5% for five-year loans for four consecutive months, indicating a cautious approach to rate adjustments [1][4]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts provide a more favorable external environment for China's monetary policy, potentially easing pressure on interest rates and the RMB exchange rate [3][5]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the average for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down 25 basis points [4]. - The necessity for LPR reductions is questioned, as current rates are already at historical lows and the recent market operations have not indicated a need for immediate changes [4][5]. Constraints on LPR Changes - Factors limiting LPR adjustments include bank interest margins, which have decreased to 1.42%, and the already low deposit rates, which may restrict further reductions [3][5]. - The PBOC's focus will be on balancing internal and external factors while maintaining a stable economic environment, with RRR cuts prioritized over interest rate cuts [5][6]. Future Expectations - A potential RRR cut of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points is anticipated in the fourth quarter, aimed at enhancing market liquidity [6]. - If policy and deposit rates continue to decline, there remains a possibility for LPR to decrease by 5 to 10 basis points later this year, although expectations should be tempered [6]. Structural Support Measures - Beyond lowering LPR, reducing non-interest costs and providing more policy support for key sectors will be essential for lowering overall financing costs [7]. - The collaboration between monetary policy and fiscal measures, such as interest subsidies and risk compensation, will be crucial in enhancing financial support for consumption and domestic demand [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, suggests a swift adjustment of policies to a neutral level, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - There is no sense of "panic" regarding the current policy situation, suggesting a measured response to economic conditions [1] - A series of 50 basis point rate cuts will "readjust" the policy, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, with concerns about rising inflation and its persistence [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - The inflation rate in the U.S. may continue to rise, raising worries about both the level and duration of inflation [1] - The focus on inflation is described as being laser-like, indicating a strong commitment to addressing this issue [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The current unemployment rate of 4.3% is considered healthy, suggesting a balanced supply-demand relationship in the labor market [1] - The employment situation is close to the target, with expectations that the unemployment rate will continue to rise slightly [1]

Market Overview - Recent market downturn is attributed to profit-taking, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing significant price fluctuations but holding above key support levels [1] - Bitcoin dropped from $114,000 to $112,173, while Ethereum fell from $4,500 to $4,077, with critical support at $4,000 and $3,950 [1] - Altcoins have seen larger declines, but funds previously exiting altcoins are expected to flow back into major cryptocurrencies [1] Economic Context - The U.S. is engaged in debt reduction strategies, with tariffs imposed by former President Trump aimed at alleviating national debt by extracting payments from other countries [3] - Trump's tariffs have reportedly led to a repatriation of manufacturing jobs to the U.S., which could enhance employment and tax revenues [3] - The U.S. national debt stands at approximately $37 trillion, necessitating effective measures for resolution [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials are critical for market sentiment, particularly regarding interest rate expectations [5] - Powell's remarks on economic outlook could influence the likelihood of further interest rate cuts, with significant data releases scheduled for the week [5] - The market is currently stable, with rising gold prices and a bullish trend in U.S. equities, reflecting investor confidence in economic recovery [3][5] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to selectively invest in promising altcoins rather than diversifying into numerous low-potential options [5] - The current market environment is characterized by a transition from institutional to larger financial entities, necessitating a shift in investment strategies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Super Central Bank Week" concluded with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting other central banks to follow suit, leading to a recalibration of asset pricing and new trading logic in the market [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining but later reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rise [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the volatility index (VIX) rose, indicating market uncertainty [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing volatility in non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Market Trends - Commodity prices displayed divergence, with gold experiencing high volatility, copper prices dropping significantly, and oil prices remaining weak, leading to a weekly decline in the CRB index [1] - In the domestic market, a trend against "involution" boosted black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, while glass and soda ash also saw gains [1] - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with stock indices reflecting varied performances [1] Commodity Sector Analysis - The Wind Commodity Index reported a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 out of 10 sectors gaining and 6 sectors declining, indicating a pattern of strength domestically but weakness externally [1] - Precious metals faced a correction, and the significant drop in non-ferrous metals negatively impacted overall commodity performance, while coal, steel, and non-metallic building materials sectors surged [1] - Agricultural products led the decline among commodity sectors [1] Future Outlook - The resumption of the interest rate cut process is expected to shift global macro trading logic, with the Fed's rate cut likely to influence commodity prices through various channels [1] - Generally, rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of gold and other commodities, as a weaker dollar supports commodity prices and liquidity injections boost expectations [1] - The phenomenon of "buying the expectation, selling the fact" is noted, with gold experiencing a rise followed by a pullback post-rate cut, suggesting that future commodity trends may diverge [1]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are entering the market to buy at lower prices, leading to a strong increase in gold prices, which have consecutively broken through resistance levels [1] - The current spot gold price has risen to 3725, with macroeconomic favorable factors emerging significantly after interest rate cuts, prompting investment banks to raise their target prices for gold and silver [1] - As the options expiration approaches, October may face seasonal selling pressure, and initial signs of demand cooling in the Asian region have been observed, raising questions about the short-term operations and mid-term outlook for gold [1]