Core Viewpoint - The French services sector PMI has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, indicating ongoing economic challenges in France despite some improvements in manufacturing [1] Group 1: Services Sector - The preliminary services PMI in France dropped from 47.3 in April to 47.4 in May, remaining below the neutral line for nine months [1] - The overall composite PMI also stayed below the neutral line for nine consecutive months, reflecting a bleak outlook for the private sector [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value increased to 49.5 in May, up from 48.7 in April, suggesting some improvement in this sector [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The economic challenges are attributed to domestic political instability and a fragile macroeconomic environment [1] - Despite efforts by President Macron to position France as an attractive destination for investment and R&D, the overall business outlook remains dim, particularly in the services sector [1]

印度5月服务业PMI初值 61.2，前值 58.7。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The addition of tariffs to small packages by the EU and the less - than - expected price increase by MSK have led to wide - ranging fluctuations in the shipping market, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. The market shows intense long - short gaming, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and current freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; for the US - West route, it was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the SCFI US - West route price was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; for the US - West route, it was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. - On May 21, the main contract 2508 closed at 2121.1, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 100,500 lots and an open interest of 53,000 lots, an increase of 1266 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's preliminary April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short - term. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Other Information - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding a major disturbing factor to the future of maritime shipping. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - route shipping capacity, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and price announcements. The market has intense long - short gaming, with wide - ranging fluctuations and an obvious decline at the end of the session [3]. - The Israeli government has recalled some of its negotiators for the detained persons in Gaza, leaving only a small team in Doha, Qatar [5]. - The EU plans to impose a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which are from China [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（5.12~5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡偏强运行，沪铜主力合约上涨0.89%，收报于78140元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 川普上台后，中美关税回归前期，对全球带来积极情绪，商品普遍好转。国内方面，消费进入旺季， 等待消费指引，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。 库存方面，铜库存LME库存179375吨，上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增27437吨至108142吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI PMI下行 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2023供需紧平衡，2 ...

2025年5月19日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 达飞传出复航消息，MSK6月运价不及预期，各合约或将回调，符合日报预期，已建议冲高止盈 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1455.31点，较上期上涨10.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航 ...

Economic Indicators - Major economies in Europe and the US are set to release May manufacturing and services PMI, which will provide insights into economic health [1][6] - The upcoming data includes April existing home sales, new home sales, leading indicators, and weekly unemployment claims, which are crucial for assessing economic conditions [3] Market Performance - US stock markets experienced significant gains last week, with the Dow Jones up 3.74%, Nasdaq up 7.15%, and S&P 500 up 5.27%, reflecting positive investor sentiment [1] - European indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 up 1.52%, DAX 30 up 1.14%, and CAC 40 up 1.85% [1] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Home Depot, Lowe's, Medtronic, and Palo Alto Networks set to report their results [3] - Chinese companies Baidu and Ctrip are also expected to announce their earnings this week [1][3] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose for the second consecutive week, with WTI crude up 2.41% to $62.49 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.35% to $65.41 per barrel, driven by improved demand outlook amid easing trade tensions [5] - Gold prices saw a significant decline, with COMEX gold futures down 3.62% to $3203.79 per ounce, attributed to a stronger dollar and optimistic trade negotiations [5] Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile, presenting challenges for the economy and the central bank [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to release minutes from its April meeting, focusing on economic outlook and policy discussions [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Japan's inflation is persistently above the Bank of Japan's target, with the CPI rising 3.6% year-on-year in March, marking 36 consecutive months above the 2% target [1] - The core CPI in March also increased by 3.2%, remaining elevated for 43 months, suggesting a sustained inflationary environment that supports the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the central bank [1] - The latest data shows that the core CPI in Tokyo rose by 3.4% in April, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly driven by rising wages [2] Group 2 - Japan's GDP has shown resilience, growing by 2.9% annually, with exports increasing for six consecutive months, reflecting strong economic activity supported by both domestic and external demand [3] - The services sector PMI has remained robust, providing a counterbalance to the manufacturing sector, which is still below the growth threshold [3] - The Bank of Japan has adjusted its economic outlook, lowering GDP growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, while also revising down its core CPI expectations, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The yen has become the best-performing currency among G10 currencies this year, attracting international investment, despite the ongoing depreciation against the dollar due to significant interest rate differentials [4] - The potential for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan remains, although the pace may be influenced by external factors such as U.S. tariff policies, which introduce uncertainty into Japan's economic outlook [4][5] - The Bank of Japan has not indicated a halt to interest rate increases, with the governor emphasizing that further hikes could occur if economic growth and inflation align with expectations [5]

Inventory Analysis - As of February, the overall actual inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. manufacturing and trade sectors is approximately 1.5 months, with manufacturers at 1.9 months, wholesalers at 1.3 months, and retailers at 1.4 months, all at low percentiles since the pandemic[2] - If assuming that the inventory of manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers only serves domestic retail sales, the overall inventory could cover about 4.2 months of sales[2] - The low inventory-to-sales ratio may indicate limited buffer space against supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to upward pressure on inflation[2] Industry-Specific Insights - In the retail sector, the actual inventory-to-sales ratio for furniture, appliances, and consumer electronics is low at only 1 month, placing it in the 6.5% percentile since the pandemic[3] - Conversely, the inventory-to-sales ratio for motor vehicles and parts, as well as building materials, exceeds 2 months, with motor vehicles at approximately 2.5 months (88.5% percentile) and building materials at about 2 months (85.2% percentile)[3] - In manufacturing and wholesale, machinery, textile raw materials, and related products have higher inventory-to-sales ratios, all exceeding 2 months, with machinery at 2.9 months (83.6% percentile) and textile raw materials at 2.8 months (70.4% percentile)[3] PMI and Inventory Trends - As of April, the ISM manufacturing PMI inventory index decreased to 50.8% from 53.4% in March, indicating a cooling in pre-tariff stockpiling behavior[4] - The customer inventory index remains low at 46.2%, suggesting concerns about the sustainability of overall manufacturing inventory levels[4] - Among 18 manufacturing sectors, 5 reported increased inventory in April, while 8 sectors, including textiles and transportation equipment, saw declines[4]

英国4月建筑业PMI为46.6，预期45.7，前值46.4。 ...

德国4月建筑业PMI 45.1，前值40.3。 ...