Global Asset Price Performance - Global bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 6 basis points due to strong employment data reducing rate cut expectations [1] - Major global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively [1][3] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have rebounded this week, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Strong employment data has led to a decrease in rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in July dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [4] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that while inflation is above the 2% target, the underlying inflation rate remains slightly below target, reducing expectations for rate hikes [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly [12] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating a trend of cooling employment [12] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49, but new orders continued to contract for the fifth consecutive month due to tariff policies [12] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Eurozone inflation has shown signs of stabilizing, with the CPI rising slightly to 2%, and the ECB is expected to consider a rate cut by the end of the year [29] - In the UK, a failed welfare reform has raised concerns about potential tax increases and borrowing, leading to a significant rise in long-term bond yields [29] - Japan's consumer spending increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and dining out [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields, highlighting the movements in 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year bonds during the week of July 4, with specific attention to the impact of the U.S. non-farm payroll report on these yields [1]. Summary by Category 10-Year Government Bonds - The yield on German 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.607%, with a cumulative increase of 1.5 basis points for the week [1]. - The yield had previously dropped to 2.542% before rebounding to 2.675% on July 2 [1]. 2-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 2-year German bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 1.816%, with an overall decline of 4.4 basis points for the week [1]. - The trading range for the 2-year bonds was between 1.875% and 1.799%, with a notable recovery following the U.S. non-farm payroll report on July 3 [1]. - The yield fluctuated below 1.860% from June 30 to July 3, but the rebound was short-lived, leading to further declines on July 4 [1]. 30-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 30-year German bonds increased by 0.9 basis points to 3.087%, with a total rise of 1.7 basis points for the week [1]. Yield Spread - The spread between 2-year and 10-year German bond yields increased by 1.174 basis points to +78.909 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 6.128 basis points for the week [1].

Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]

金十数据7月4日讯，高盛经济学家们维持对欧洲和英国收益率的预测。预测，今年晚些时候，德国国债 收益率将达到2.80%，2026年将超过3%，因为围绕贸易不确定性的短期风险最终将让位于德国财政扩张 带来的上行风险。与此同时，英国央行的路径不太可能受到国家风险溢价上升的影响，因为前端多头头 寸仍受到相对较好的保护。 高盛经济学家们维持对欧洲和英国收益率的预测 ...

Group 1 - The yield on the UK 10-year government bonds decreased by 7.1 basis points, settling at 4.542%, and traded within the range of 4.603%-4.512% throughout the day [1] - The 2-year UK bond yield fell by 4.1 basis points to 3.841%, reaching a daily low of 3.808% before experiencing a recovery of over 3 basis points following the US non-farm payroll report [1] - The 30-year UK bond yield dropped by 8.1 basis points to 5.338%, with a daily low of 5.299% [1] Group 2 - The 50-year UK bond yield decreased by 8.3 basis points, reporting at 4.684%, and hitting a low of 4.649% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds narrowed by 3.126 basis points, now at +69.779 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds decreased by 4.9 basis points, settling at 2.615%, with trading throughout the day between 2.660% and 2.610% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 1.834%, trading within a range of 1.875% to 1.829% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield dropped by 4.0 basis points, reaching 3.077%, with a slight recovery following the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds decreased by 1.689 basis points, now at +77.735 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the UK's 30-year government bonds has decreased by 12 basis points, marking the largest intraday drop since April [1] Group 2 - The decline in yield indicates a shift in investor sentiment, potentially reflecting concerns over economic conditions or changes in monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK government bonds have seen an increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield dropping by 10 basis points to 5.32% [1] Group 1 - The 30-year UK government bond yield has decreased, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term securities [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose, with the T2509 contract up 0.11% and an increase in open interest. Short - term market interest rates generally declined, and key - term Treasury bond yields in China also mostly decreased. Overseas, 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The domestic economic environment has both positive and negative factors, but the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which provides some support for Treasury bond futures prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: Yields of Treasury bond futures generally rose, with T2512 having the highest increase of 0.16%. Open interest of most contracts changed, with T2509 and others increasing. Trading volume varied by contract, and open interest increased in some contracts and decreased in others. The cross - period spreads of some contracts changed [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined, with SHIBOR7 down 3.3bp, DR007 down 4.85bp, and GC007 down 6.9bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally decreased, with the 10Y yield down 1.08bp to 1.64%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 22.82bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y Treasury bond yields in the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 4bp, 4bp, and 1.5bp respectively [2] Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 2, the central bank conducted 985 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 365.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan. In June, the central bank had net liquidity injections through various tools [3] - **Economic Outlook**: Many foreign institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth. Experts believe that macro - policies need to be further strengthened in the second half of the year, and there is room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [3] - **Regulatory Policies**: The CSRC emphasized optimizing capital market mechanisms, protecting investors, and promoting capital market reform. The central government is paying more attention to fiscal policies for stable growth, with some ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds to be issued ahead of schedule [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On July 2, money market interest rates mostly declined, and US Treasury bond yields collectively rose, driven by factors such as the Trump tax reform bill, the US - Vietnam trade agreement, and market supply - demand changes [3] - **Market Analysis**: Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, with the 10 - year active bond yield down to 1.636%. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal at the beginning of the month and the decline in Shibor short - term varieties kept the market funds relatively loose. The US economic data was mixed, but the US - Vietnam trade agreement led to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields. The domestic economic climate generally expanded, and the central bank's supportive monetary policy will support Treasury bond futures prices [3]

英国10年期国债收益率下跌6个基点至4.56%。 ...