Group 1 - Bitcoin surged 2.3% to $93,323, marking its highest level since December 11, driven by positive performance in Asian markets, particularly in technology and AI sectors [1] - Gold rose by 2% to over $4,400 per ounce, while silver saw a maximum increase of 4.8%, as investors sought safe-haven assets following U.S. military actions in Venezuela [1] - Bitcoin's recent price movements are primarily driven by "crypto-native" institutions, with no significant sell-off from Bitcoin miners, wealthy family offices, or large investment funds [4] Group 2 - Despite Bitcoin's previous perception as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times, its performance has been more aligned with risk assets like stocks [4] - On January 2, investors injected $471 million into 12 Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the U.S., the highest level since November 11, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [4] - Traders are currently focused on whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum above the $94,000 mark, with $88,000 identified as a critical support level if a pullback occurs [4]

周一(1月5日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格一度涨超2%，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4408.25美元/盎司，上涨 1.81%，最高触及4419.54美元/盎司，最低下探4331.59美元/盎司。避险情绪升温，支撑金价走强，在地 缘局势不确定性情况下，金价重获多头回补，但美元同步走高，因此金价短期向上加速的概率不大，维 持高位震荡。 美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发动军事行动，导致该国总统马杜罗被捕并被带离。行动涉及对军事基地及多 处目标的打击，造成平民伤亡，委内瑞拉随后宣布全国进入紧急状态。 据报道，莫斯科将美国1月3日的行动描述为武装入侵，并警告称此类举动将大幅加剧本已动荡地区的进 一步升级风险。俄罗斯的回应反映出其长期反对单边军事行动，特别是在拉丁美洲，莫斯科一再强调该 地区应保持为不受外部干涉的和平区域。 美国参议员迈克.李1月3日表示，随着马杜罗被捕，美军在委内瑞拉的军事动作已经结束。李在社交平 台X上发文援引国务卿马可.卢比奥的言论称，既然马杜罗已被美方羁押，后续不太可能再采取军事行 动。 与此同时，美国副国务卿克里斯托弗.兰道再度强调马杜罗将面临法律审判，这表明华盛顿的焦点可能 正从军事动作转向司法与外交程序。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant divergence within the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints, leading to a strong performance in copper, aluminum, and precious metals, while lead prices show a weak rebound lacking fundamental support [1][2] - The surge in copper and aluminum prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from key production areas, which have created a narrative of scarcity in industrial metals, further fueled by positive market sentiment and capital inflows [1][3] - Lead prices experienced a daily increase of 125 yuan/ton to 17,425 yuan/ton; however, this rebound is characterized as "virtual fire," primarily driven by market sentiment rather than improvements in the underlying fundamentals, as evidenced by weak demand and increasing inventory pressures [1][2] Group 2 - Leading companies in the sector are adopting different strategies in response to market conditions, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals firms focusing on capacity expansion and resource allocation, while lead industry players are concentrating on cost control and cash flow management to navigate the current phase of industry pressure [2][3] - The short-term outlook suggests that copper and aluminum prices are likely to remain strong due to supportive supply narratives and macroeconomic expectations, while lead prices are expected to face downward pressure from rising inventories and weak demand, with a projected trading range of 17,100 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is characterized by a mix of strong and weak performances, necessitating a careful approach to investment opportunities, particularly in distinguishing between strong commodities like copper and aluminum and weaker ones like lead [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant upward movement, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2026 and heightened geopolitical tensions that are fostering safe-haven demand [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold rose by 1.59% to $4,400.530 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The rise in gold prices is primarily attributed to the growing market anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Data - Key upcoming events include the potential rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14, which may lead to technical adjustments in gold and silver positions, with estimated sell-off volumes potentially accounting for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll and unemployment data for December, set to be released on January 9, is expected to significantly impact gold prices [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, including military actions and diplomatic statements, are contributing to the rise in safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The situation is further complicated by ongoing drone attacks in Russia, attributed to Ukraine, which adds to the overall geopolitical uncertainty [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy indicate a 17.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 82.8% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 44.1% [4]. - The dual influence of monetary policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment is expected to continue driving gold prices in the near term [4].

黄金上周五冲高4402后回落，最低触及4310，周终收于4332。周五晚间李槿公开指出关注4400关口破位情况，不破必将回落，需谨防冲高跳水风险，走势符 合预期。 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 金市沉浮几轮回，趋势为纲定盈亏 大的趋势还是多，周五只是因为获利了结引发的短暂下跌，多头并没有动摇分毫。周五公开思路4320支撑多，隔周也是大涨4420迎来大胜。上周五回撤过程 中实战分批多单布局，踩准周初反攻节奏。低点确认后，趋势多头行情正式开启，坚守的朋友本周开启趋势一路收割模式。 本周强阻4550，强撑4270-75，大区间未破前高空低多。今日可能给不到好的位置了，有回撤依然是回落多不改。首次回撤看4335区域，若意外下探进一步 关注4300和4275关键支撑。上方阻力依次关注4435、4470两大压力位，突破后可顺势看高一线。日内早盘高开高走，消息面也有推动作用，日内逢低做多为 主，有多的继续逢高减，这波时间线再次一一兑现 2026年首个交易周，行情迎来强势引爆。这场波动的直接导火索，是周末期间美国对委内瑞拉发动的闪电军事行动。地缘政治局势陡生变数，避险情绪升 温。我们周末公开指出周一会高开，行情完美符合 ...

【市场对委内瑞拉变局的反应：油价"不涨反跌"，黄金重回4400，银价飙涨5%】美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治巨震，避险情绪推动黄金价格反 弹至4400美元上方，现货钯金涨超3%，白银飙涨5%。然而，油价却意外下跌——分析指出全球供应将创纪录过剩，委内瑞拉产量占比不足1%难 撼大局。特朗普宣布将深度介入委油产业，要求美企业投资重建，但业内警告，政权动荡下的供应恢复或将漫长艰难。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 元旦假期美国突袭委内瑞拉引发避险情绪升温，黄金出现反弹。1月5日周一，伦敦现货黄金早盘快速拉 升1%。黄金中长线逻辑不改，地缘变局或将主导短期走势。 上月影响贵金属走势的核心因素集中在两点：一是，美联储独立性质疑和"鹰"向"鸽"的转变。虽然美联 储官员内部存在"严重"的分歧，如12月会议纪要现实美联储一名成员主张更激进的降息，另两名则坚持 按兵不动，但更为重要的是，美联储货币政策更多暴露了央行在通胀韧性、就业下行风险、经济低迷数 据及金融市场流动性紧张等多重矛盾中政策走向的窘境，虽然市场普遍预期2026年可能还有约两次降 息、路径高度不确定性，但可以确定的是在美政府的强力施压下，美联储将维持金融市场流动性偏宽松 的局面，这也成为再次引爆贵金属市场的核心因素之一。关注1月美总统公布的美联储主席人选。二 是，地缘政治此起彼伏，再现不稳定性。俄乌谈判变得再次扑朔迷离，俄乌之间再次攻伐不断，市场几 乎看不到短期停止冲突的迹象。另外，美委之间骤然升级成南美地缘政治危机。虽然在2025年12月早有 苗头，但元旦期间局势的陡然升温，瞬间将地区紧张推向了地缘战 ...

经济基本面与贸易环境的变化进一步夯实了瑞郎的支撑。瑞士经济展现出分化韧性，2025年三季度GDP 虽受制药行业拖累收缩，但制造业和服务业的增长形成有效对冲，央行预计全年增速略低于1.5%。更 关键的是，2025年11月美瑞贸易协议生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%大幅降至15%，显著缓解了瑞士 的出口压力，为瑞郎基本面注入强心剂。同时，瑞士2025年12月KOF经济领先指标升至103.4，创下自 2024年9月以来的最高水平，超出市场预期，反映出制造业与建筑业表现强劲，预示瑞士经济在2026年 初前景向好，进一步强化了瑞郎的吸引力。而美元端则受广谱弱势拖累，2025年美元指数累计下跌约 9%，兑十国集团货币普遍走弱，叠加美国双赤字与高估值问题未得到根本解决，构成了美元的结构性 压制。 展望后续，市场需重点关注三大核心线索：一是美联储政策动向，包括1月议息会议结果、会议纪要释 放的政策信号以及延后发布的非农就业报告，这些将直接影响市场对降息节奏的预期，进而重塑美瑞利 差格局；二是瑞士通胀数据与央行表态，若通缩压力上升引发降息预期，可能改变瑞郎的短期走势；三 是全球避险情绪与美瑞贸易协议执行进展，突发风险事件或政策 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that geopolitical events have activated the global gold market, leading to a significant increase in gold prices and related stocks, particularly following a military action by the US against Venezuela [2] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks rose by 1.34%, with notable increases in stocks such as Hunan Silver (up 5.49%) and Xiaocheng Technology (up 4.68%) [1] - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 59%-62%, driven by growth in core metal production and rising sales prices [2] Group 2 - The ETF tracking gold stocks (517520) is expected to benefit from the strong performance of its largest component, Zijin Mining, which has a combined weight of about 15% in the index [2] - Long-term outlook suggests that the trend of rising precious metals prices may continue, despite short-term volatility influenced by economic data and oil price fluctuations [2] - The gold stock ETF (517520) is highlighted for its higher elasticity during gold price increases, making it an attractive investment option for capturing gold price gains while diversifying individual stock risks [3]

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 每日经济新闻 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...