Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

Core Insights - The year 2025 is marked by significant technological advancements, particularly in artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, reshaping economic and social development [1] - The technological wave is not only generating new productivity but also driving structural market trends, providing key coordinates for future investment directions [2] Group 1: Key Technological Trends - AI agents are evolving into autonomous partners, significantly lowering the barriers for AI technology development and application, leading to a surge in market expectations for Chinese tech innovation [3] - The supernode architecture is emerging as a critical breakthrough, integrating hundreds of chips into efficient computing units, paving a differentiated development path in global computing power competition [4] - The PCB industry is experiencing a technological leap, evolving towards higher layers, density, and reliability, marking China's transition from a manufacturing center to an innovation source in high-end manufacturing [5] Group 2: Strategic Developments in Computing and Energy - AI computing power is becoming a strategic digital foundation in international tech competition, with China's "East Data West Computing" strategy accelerating the construction of a green computing network [6] - Co-packaged optics (CPO) technology is crucial for enhancing computing efficiency, reshaping value distribution in the optical communication supply chain [7] - Controlled nuclear fusion is on the verge of breakthroughs, with significant advancements in China's "artificial sun" projects, attracting capital market attention [10] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace and Robotics - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a phase of intensive launches, with satellite internet constellations rapidly expanding, marking the beginning of a trillion-dollar space economy [11] - The humanoid robotics industry is reaching a turning point, with significant events indicating a shift towards mass production and application expansion [12] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The digital economy is transitioning to a strategic phase, integrating AI and data as core drivers, reshaping production and consumption efficiency [9] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise from the structural changes in flow logic due to the rise of AI, as well as innovations aimed at enhancing overall productivity [15] - The focus for 2026 will include AI deepening integration, autonomous innovation acceleration, and future industry trends, with specific attention to model iteration and cost-effective computing solutions [14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the rapid changes and disruptions experienced over the past 25 years, emphasizing the dual themes of "acceleration" and "disruption" in various fields, particularly in technology and societal structures [4][5]. Group 1: Acceleration and Disruption - The emergence of generative AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, alongside advancements in biomedicine, quantum communication, and brain-machine interfaces, signifies a transformative phase in human technological achievements [4][5]. - The acceleration of human progress is likened to a boiling point that could elevate civilization to a new dimension, while the disruption challenges established norms and moral foundations in global governance and social order [5]. Group 2: Economic and Structural Challenges - The new quarter-century presents challenges related to industrial structure, debt rates, birth rates, and external environments, necessitating a reevaluation of development models [5]. - The article discusses the need for either macroeconomic policies to ensure stability or deeper reforms to unlock potential, highlighting the importance of addressing structural issues through comprehensive reforms [5][6]. Group 3: Individual Response and Agency - Individuals are encouraged to confront the mixed feelings of excitement and anxiety brought about by rapid changes, emphasizing the importance of proactive choices and actions in shaping one's future [6][7]. - The article posits that every small improvement in individual circumstances contributes to a larger collective force, underscoring the significance of personal responsibility and agency in navigating the complexities of the modern world [7].

军工ETF华宝（512810）全面覆盖海陆空天军工核心资产，其中囊括24只商业航天概念股，权重占比合 计28.64%。午后成份股快速分化，6股振幅超10%，中国卫通炸板，中国卫星、航天发展翻绿，臻镭科 技跌5%，铂力特跌4.8%。 分析人士指出，临近年末，在量能进一步萎缩的情况下，短线情绪分化，兑现资金或持续放大板块波 动。就基本面而言，商业航天利好频发，正驶入发展快车道，景气高企。 12月26日，上交所发布《发行上市审核规则适用指引第9号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标 准》，并自发布之日起实施。据不完全统计，目前已有至少10家商业航天企业开启IPO进程，5家主营 业务为运载火箭。 申万宏源指出，商业航天、低空经济等新域新质领域贡献增加，共同支撑军工基本面修复预期。湘财证 券也表示，"十五五"国家航天强国战略目标的牵引下，国内政策、资本与技术正形成合力，推动商业航 天从技术验证阶段迈向规模化、商业化运营阶段，因此维持军工行业"增持"评级。 【八一军工，火力全开】代码有"八一"的军工ETF华宝（512810）（原国防军工ETF）覆盖"商业航天 + 可控核聚变 + 低空经济 + 大飞机 + 深海科技 + ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the commercialization process of controllable nuclear fusion, highlighting the diverse technological routes and the increasing industrial catalysis [5]. - It identifies Tokamak and Field-Reversed Configuration (FRC) as reliable paths for achieving nuclear fusion, with Tokamak being the mainstream route and FRC gaining attention for its potential faster commercialization [13][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Controllable Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion is defined as the process where lighter atomic nuclei combine under extreme temperature and pressure to form heavier nuclei, releasing significant energy, similar to the energy generation mechanism of the sun [13][14]. - Compared to nuclear fission, nuclear fusion offers advantages such as high energy density, safety, cleanliness, and abundant raw materials [18][19]. 2. Tokamak: A Mainstream Route - The Tokamak, developed in the 1950s, utilizes a toroidal vacuum chamber and magnetic fields to confine high-temperature plasma necessary for fusion reactions [49]. - The report outlines the complexity of Tokamak components, emphasizing that the magnet system is crucial for maintaining plasma stability and achieving fusion conditions [52][59]. 3. FRC: A Simpler and Cost-Effective Approach - FRC is noted for its simpler structure and lower investment costs compared to Tokamak, with a potentially faster commercialization timeline [5][18]. 4. Global Fusion Projects - As of December 2025, there are 179 controllable nuclear fusion devices globally, with 82 being Tokamak devices, indicating a robust international effort towards fusion energy [40]. - The report highlights various national projects, including China's BEST and CFEDR, which aim to achieve significant milestones in fusion energy by 2027 and 2030, respectively [43][50]. 5. Key Companies in the Industry - The report suggests focusing on companies with capabilities in critical components for nuclear fusion, such as 合锻智能 (Hefei Intelligent), 联创光电 (Lianchuang Optoelectronics), and 国光电气 (Guoguang Electric), among others [5][44].

行业表现来看，中证1000ETF前几大重仓行业中，电子上涨0.21%，电力设备下跌0.6%，医药生物下跌 0.54%，计算机上涨0.43%，机械设备上涨0.84%。 从资金面来看，中证1000ETF（159845）近五个交易日资金净流入19.85亿元，近十个交易日净流入27.99亿 元。最新规模达502.15亿元，近一个月规模增长56.44亿元。今日盘中成交额7.59亿元，近一周日均成交高达14.76 亿元，流动性在同标的指数ETF中领先。 近日，中基协最新发布的公募基金市场数据显示，截至2025年11月底，我国公募基金总规模为37.02万亿元， 这是我国公募基金总规模今年以来第八次创下历史新高。 12月30日临近午盘，A股三大指数走势分化，其中沪指下跌0.11%。截至11:12，中证1000ETF（159845）上涨 0.29%。其他宽基指数中，上证50跌0.08%，中证500涨0.25%。 银河证券表示，短期依然关注防御性板块配置机会，重视明年政策红利与产业景气方向布局。（1）主线一： 全球百年未遇之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚 变、量子科技、航空航 ...

Core Insights - The commercialization of "ultimate energy" is no longer a science fiction concept but is entering a critical phase of industrialization with narrowing windows and diverging paths [2][9] - The global competition in fusion energy is transitioning from laboratory research to engineering practice and commercial application [2][3] Investment Landscape - The global fusion industry has experienced explosive growth, with total investments rising from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion, including an additional $2.6 billion in 2024 alone [1] - Nearly 40 countries are advancing fusion plans, with over 160 fusion devices either operational, under construction, or planned [3][4] Technological Developments - Three main technological routes for achieving controllable nuclear fusion are currently being pursued: magnetic confinement fusion, inertial confinement fusion, and magnetic inertial confinement fusion [3] - Significant milestones include the successful installation of the 400-ton, 18-meter diameter Dewar base for the BEST device in China, aiming for the first global fusion energy demonstration by 2030, ahead of the ITER project by over a decade [3][4] China's Unique Path - China is adopting a unique approach that balances ambition with pragmatism, focusing on a "three-in-one" ecosystem that integrates continuous innovation, resource integration, and rapid iteration [6][8] - The Chinese government has included fusion energy in its 14th Five-Year Plan, providing a clear direction and long-term expectations for the industry [6][7] Collaborative Ecosystem - A collaborative innovation ecosystem is being established in China, involving government, industry, academia, and finance to tackle common technological challenges [8] - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company, with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aims to lead large-scale experiments and material research [7] Challenges Ahead - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion faces significant challenges, including fundamental bottlenecks in core materials, extreme engineering integration challenges, and an immature industrial ecosystem [10][11] - Key hurdles include the need for advanced materials that can withstand extreme conditions, the integration of complex engineering systems, and the establishment of a robust regulatory framework [10][12]

国内动态：发改委发文加快构建现代化基础设施体系，BEST订单持续释放 12月25日，国家发改委基础设施发展司发布文章《加快构建现代化基础设施体系》，提出加大长时储 能、绿电制氢氨醇、核聚变等技术攻关。近期等离子体所、聚变新能发布/更新多项采购，前期招标的 氚工厂、低温系统等核心部件已陆续开标并公示中标情况。中国工程物理研究院(原简称"九院")材料研 究所中标等离子所氚增殖系统全部4个项目合计约11.4亿元。合肥物质科学研究院预中标低温系统关键 部件(预算7.28亿元);合肥物质科学研究院等联合体获BEST装置TF磁体项目8.885亿元;西部超导、上海超 导获千万级订单。 智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先 觉聚能、环流四号项目有望陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放;TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚 变上市公司，有望提振FRC板块情绪;Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可 行性得到验证，国内相关初创公司项目有望加速推进;十五五规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域;该行看好 板块长期发展前景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部 ...

NO.3中信证券：商业航天景气高企石墨纤维迎来机遇 12月30日，中信证券研报称，受益政策、技术和市场三维驱动，商业航天迎来景气高企。在太空算力需 求拉动下，火箭、卫星结构轻量化以及特殊应用环境对于碳纤维材料提出更高要求，石墨纤维凭借耐高 温、高强高模以及低热膨胀系数等优势，渗透率有望进一步提升。该机构预计伴随着下游需求放量，在 国产化驱动下，布局石墨纤维的相关企业有望充分受益。 NO.2开源证券：BEST订单持续释放，看好板块长期发展前景 12月30日，开源证券指出，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先觉聚能、环流四 号项目有望陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放；TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司， 有望提振FRC板块情绪；Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可行性得到验 证，国内相关初创公司项目有望加速推进；"十五五"规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域；该机构看好板块 长期发展前景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部件。 ｜2025年12月30日星期二｜ NO.1中信证券：磷酸铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点 12月30日，中信证券研报表示，铁锂行业盈 ...

Core Insights - The development and construction of controllable nuclear fusion devices are progressing steadily, with projects such as BEST, Xinghuo No.1, Xianjue Juyuan, and Huanliu No.4 expected to commence sequentially [1] - The merger of TMTG and TAE aims to create the world's first publicly listed commercial fusion company, which is likely to boost sentiment in the FRC sector [1] - Helion has announced plans to achieve power generation verification by 2025, and if the feasibility of the FRC technology route is validated, domestic startups in this field may accelerate their projects [1] - The 14th Five-Year Plan suggests a proactive layout in the nuclear fusion energy sector, indicating long-term growth potential [1] - The industry outlook is positive, with a recommendation to focus on core components such as magnets, main engines, and power supplies [1]