机械设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业专题 2026 年 1 月 6 日 强于大市 机械设备行业 2026 年度策略 聚焦科技成长，掘金智造新纪元 "十五五"规划延续对高端制造的倾斜，展望 2026 年，作为"十五五"的开 局之年，我们认在内外需恢复仍有压力的背景下，结构性的科技成长有望成 为穿越周期的核心驱动力，重点关注可控核聚变、液冷、固态电池设备、人 形机器人等硬科技板块带来的投资机会，维持行业 强于大市 评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 评级面临的主要风险 国内外经济复苏不及预期的风险；产业政策调整的风险；地缘政治和贸易战的风险； 竞争加剧的风险；原材料价格波动的风险；技术快速迭代的风险。 相关研究报告 《机械设备行业点评》20251028 《核聚变系列报告—超导磁体》20250805 《可控核聚变行业动态点评》20250724 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 机械设备 证券分析师：陶波 (8621)20328512 bo.tao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060002 证券分析师：曹鸿生 (8621)20328513 hongsheng. ...

格隆汇12月30日｜开源证券指出，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先觉聚能、 环流四号项目有望陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放；TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市 公司，有望提振FRC板块情绪；Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可行性 得到验证，国内相关初创公司项目有望加速推进；十五五规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域；我们看好板 块长期发展前景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部件。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先觉聚能、环流四号项目有望 陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放；TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司，有望提振 FRC板块情绪；Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可行性得到验证，国内 相关初创公司项目有望加速推进；十五五规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域；我们看好板块长期发展前 景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部件。 ...

随着2027年BEST装置发电演示工作的推进，以及EAST装置长脉冲运行纪录不断刷新，这个行业已经进入多个技术路线竞争、资本集中投入的新阶段。 可控核聚变对国家能源安全和科技自主至关重要，目前它的产业化正从实验验证阶段逐步推进到工程示范阶段，进度不断加快。 材料性能能否突破，是核聚变技术能否行得通的核心难题。现在核聚变关键设备的国产化率已经超过96%，像钨基偏滤器、高温超导带材这些核心部件， 都已经能自主生产。 从资本市场来看，可控核聚变相关板块一直受到资金关注。 2025年以来，板块周线沿着20周线持续上涨，本周收出几乎光头阳线，成交量温和放大，消化了之前所有套牢盘，还创下了新高，这或意味着板块可能已 开启新一轮行情！ 本周五（12月12日），板块内的个股表现都相当活跃，华菱线缆连续一字涨停，雪人集团、四创电子开盘半小时内也跟着上涨，爱科赛博、斯瑞新材等个 股涨幅明显，北交所的天力复合表现格外突出，本周涨幅翻了一倍以上。 在核聚变产业化加速推进的背景下，A股投资者该如何聚焦核心企业，精准抓住投资机会呢？ 核聚变工程加快落地，AI助力推进商业化 核聚变产业发展分为科学理论、科学可行性、工程可行性、商业可行性和 ...

Economic Comparison - In 2024, China's GDP is projected at 134.9 trillion yuan (approximately 18.94 trillion USD), while the US GDP is expected to reach 29.2 trillion USD, widening the gap to 10 trillion USD, with China's share decreasing from 67% to 65% [1] - The US nominal GDP growth is significantly influenced by high inflation, with a cumulative price increase of 21.2% over the past four years, while China's CPI only increased by 0.2% in 2024, indicating a more stable economic environment [3][4] Statistical Methodology - The US includes imputed rent in its GDP calculations, which allowed it to "gain" 610 billion USD in Q1 2025, a method not applicable in China, which uses a production-based approach for GDP accounting [4] - The difference in statistical methodologies highlights the disparity in economic reporting and the potential for manipulation of GDP figures [4] Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) - According to the International Monetary Fund, China's PPP GDP is projected to reach 39.44 trillion international dollars by 2025, surpassing the US's 30.34 trillion international dollars by 30% [6] - The purchasing power of consumers in China is significantly higher, with the ability to buy more goods for the same amount of money compared to the US, indicating a stronger domestic economy [6] Technological Competition - The economic rivalry is increasingly focused on technological advancements, with China investing heavily in hard technology, achieving significant milestones in 5G, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion [9] - In contrast, US R&D investment intensity has decreased, while military spending has reached a record high of 886 billion USD, indicating a shift in focus from innovation to defense [9] Crisis Management and Economic Resilience - In Q4 2024, China's economic growth accelerated to 5.4%, driven by high-tech manufacturing, while US corporate investment declined by 2.2% [11] - China's proactive approach to managing real estate bubbles and maintaining foreign exchange reserves of 3.2 trillion USD contrasts sharply with the US's rising commercial real estate delinquency rates [11]

Group 1 - Citigroup's outlook suggests that if growth remains resilient and prices improve, the attractiveness of Chinese assets will increase [1] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the burden of tariffs is primarily borne by Americans, leading to downward pressure on the dollar [2] - Dutch International highlights concerns over the UK's fiscal situation, which has contributed to the depreciation of the pound [3] Group 2 - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that the deterioration of UK public finance data increases the likelihood of tax measures in the upcoming autumn budget [4] - Capital Economics argues that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to significantly revive U.S. manufacturing, as competition from low-wage countries remains a challenge [5] - Saxo Bank views the recent U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a political show rather than a substantial economic catalyst [6] Group 3 - Citic Construction states that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is entering a fast development phase, positively impacting the supply chain [7] - Citic Construction estimates that the average annual demand for coal-fired power generation capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will be 60-80 GW, significantly higher than current market expectations [8] - Citic Securities continues to recommend leading companies in the thermal coal sector, anticipating a new round of opportunities due to recovering coal prices [9] Group 4 - Citic Securities predicts a 25-30% increase in cement demand in Tibet by 2026, driven by ongoing infrastructure development [10] - Citic Securities expects the banking sector to maintain an upward trend in Q3 2025, supported by favorable market conditions [11] - Huatai Securities reports that the domestic "anti-involution" measures are creating opportunities in the metals sector, with price recoveries in polysilicon and other materials [12]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the power grid and industrial control sectors is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, with potential opportunities for performance and valuation recovery in the second half of the year [1] Power Grid Sector - Domestic power grid investment showed strong growth in the first five months of 2025, with a total investment of 204 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [5] - The approval pace for ultra-high voltage projects is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, with significant projects already approved [7] - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment remains strong, with a projected annual growth rate of around 10% for power grid investment from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The first half of 2025 saw a robust demand for primary network investments, with a notable increase in bidding amounts for key equipment [10] Industrial Control Sector - The industrial control market has shown signs of recovery, with the OEM market experiencing a 3.3% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first positive growth in three years [24] - The demand for new technologies, particularly in automation and robotics, is expected to enhance profitability and valuation flexibility for industrial control companies [3] - The overall capital expenditure momentum remains slightly subdued, but a narrow fluctuation in the new cycle is anticipated [18] Investment Themes - Focus on new productive forces, including AIDC and humanoid robots, which are expected to bring significant valuation elasticity [3] - The revival of nuclear energy is highlighted, with a focus on nuclear power equipment and small modular reactors (SMR) as key investment areas [48] - The overseas market for power grid investment is projected to maintain high growth, driven by energy transition and grid upgrades, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [4] Nuclear Energy Sector - The global nuclear power industry is experiencing a strategic revival, with significant investments and approvals in various countries, including China and the U.S. [49] - The demand for nuclear energy is increasing due to the need for stable, low-carbon baseload power, with a focus on SMR and controlled nuclear fusion technologies [62] - The nuclear power sector is expected to see a re-evaluation of its investment value as countries prioritize energy security and decarbonization [61]

Group 1 - The controllable nuclear fusion index has risen by 2.38% on May 23, leading the concept index gains, with a year-to-date increase of 31.05% [1] - U.S. President Trump is expected to sign an executive order to simplify reactor approval processes and strengthen fuel supply chains, boosting the nuclear energy sector [1] - In China, significant contracts have been signed in the nuclear fusion sector, indicating a robust development in controllable nuclear fusion research and commercialization [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter, 20 controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks reported net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Nuclear Power leading at 3.137 billion yuan [2] - China Nuclear Power's revenue from nuclear power business grew by 10.46% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 11.52% [2] - The net profit growth rates for companies like Yongding Co., Oriental Precision, and Shanghai Electric were exceptionally high, at 960.55%, 517.55%, and 145.69% respectively [3][4] Group 3 - Public fund holdings in controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks include significant shares in China Nuclear Power and China Energy Construction, with holdings of 549 million shares and 483 million shares respectively [4]

金十数据4月24日讯，华泰证券发布研报称，可控核聚变正从短期主题投资变成长期产业投资，预计未 来几年全球每年有约2~3个核聚变装置建设投产，行业加速从0到1，产业链招标和订单有望迎来持续催 化。可控核聚变反应的约束方式和原料组合众多，当前氘氚磁约束聚变仍是主流，占在运和在建约一 半。磁约束托卡马克装置目前单位造价在100~300元/瓦聚变功率不等，我们按照每年新建2-3个装置， 每个装置聚变功率50~100MW，对应未来可控核聚变每年的全球投资规模有望达到100~900亿元不等。 华泰证券：未来可控核聚变每年的全球投资规模有望达到100~900亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Controlled nuclear fusion is regarded as the ultimate energy solution for humanity, with significant advancements in research and engineering feasibility, leading to increased investment and interest in the sector [1][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Since 2025, organizations like Fusion New Energy and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have initiated approximately 46 procurement projects related to controlled nuclear fusion [1]. - The controlled nuclear fusion sector experienced a surge on March 25, with indices rising over 7%, indicating strong market enthusiasm [1]. - The global fusion energy industry has attracted a total investment of $7.3 billion by 2024, with a notable increase in private fusion companies from 23 in 2021 to nearly 50 by 2025 [10]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Breakthroughs in superconducting materials and precision engineering have accelerated the research and development of controlled nuclear fusion, making commercial viability more promising [4][9]. - The International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, initiated in the 1980s, has faced high costs and delays, but recent advancements in high-temperature superconducting magnets are reshaping the engineering paradigm for tokamak devices [9][10]. - The Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) is a significant project aimed at advancing fusion energy commercialization, with a roadmap outlining key milestones leading to a demonstration power plant by around 2050 [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Landscape - Major investments in fusion energy have been observed, with the U.S. investing over $2.5 billion in 2021 and China maintaining investments around $1 billion in recent years [10]. - Notable figures, such as OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, have personally invested in fusion startups, highlighting the growing interest from the tech sector [10]. - State-owned enterprises in China, including China Nuclear Power and Zhejiang Energy, have committed significant capital to fusion energy companies, indicating strong governmental support for the industry [11]. Group 4: Market Potential - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach $496.55 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.4% from 2024 to 2030 [21]. - The cost of nuclear fusion experimental reactors is currently high, with estimates reaching hundreds of billions, but advancements in superconducting materials are expected to significantly reduce costs and improve economic viability [23]. - The nuclear fusion supply chain includes upstream raw materials, midstream superconducting magnets, and downstream power plant operations, with a focus on key components like superconducting magnets and vacuum systems [20][21].