来 源 | 芒 格 书 院 预 计 阅 读 时 间：1 6 分 钟 五一小长假将至，除了假期，最令人期待的莫过于巴菲特股东大会。2025年股东大会定于当地时间 5月3日在奥马哈举行。在这场投资盛会启幕前，让我们先重温巴菲特最新发布的致股东信。 2月底，伯克希尔哈撒韦正式发布2024年年度报告及巴菲特年度股东信。芒格书院通过DeepSeek 精 译了这份奥马哈来信的全文。 01 我们以股东希望的方式传递信息 致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东： 这封致股东信是 伯克希尔年报 的重要组成部分。作为上市公司，我们有义务定期向您披露大量具体事 实和数据。 但"年报"二字承载着更重的责任——除了法定披露事项，我们认为还应当向您阐述所投资产的本质与我 们的投资理念。我们的沟通准则始终如一：若角色互换（即您执掌伯克希尔，而我与家族作为被动投资 者将毕生积蓄托付于您）， 您会希望以何种方式获得信息，我们便以何种方式传递信息。 这种理念促使我们每年如实报告您通过伯克希尔股权间接持有的各家企业的兴衰起落。不过当谈及具体 子公司的问题时，我们始终恪守六十年前汤姆·墨菲传授的黄金法则："指名道姓赞其优，分门别类析其 弊。" 02 错的——是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconception that long-term holding of investments guarantees returns, highlighting that many investors face losses despite prolonged holding periods due to various risks associated with individual stocks and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Individual Stocks and Long-Term Holding - The case of LeTV exemplifies the risks of long-term holding, where the company's market value plummeted from over 170 billion yuan in 2015 to delisting in 2020, resulting in significant losses for investors who believed in the company's potential [1]. - Individual stock investments carry substantial risks, including operational failures, industry cycle changes, and governance issues, which can lead to long-term holders ending up with nothing [1]. Group 2: Active Management Funds - Active management funds are not immune to poor performance; competitive market conditions and strategy failures can lead to long-term underperformance or even fund liquidation [2]. - Historical trends show that many funds that perform well during bull markets may struggle in subsequent periods, leading to prolonged losses for investors [2]. Group 3: Index Funds and Systemic Risks - Even index funds, which are generally considered safer due to diversification, can experience significant declines, as evidenced by the drop of the ChiNext Index from approximately 3100 points in early 2022 to 1800 points by the end of 2023, a decline of over 40% [2]. - Historical examples, such as the Dow Jones recovering only after 25 years post-1929 Great Depression and the Nikkei 225 not returning to its 1989 peak, illustrate that systemic market risks can lead to long-term stagnation [2]. Group 4: Limitations of Long-Term Holding - The inherent complexity and uncertainty of markets make long-term holding of single assets risky, as systemic risks from macroeconomic cycles, regulatory changes, and structural shifts can pressure asset prices [3]. - The concept of "long-term" is subjective, varying among investors, and emphasizing long-term holding without considering individual circumstances can be dangerous [3]. Group 5: Asset Allocation as a Solution - The article advocates for asset allocation as a more scientific investment approach, promoting diversification to mitigate risks, akin to the adage of not putting all eggs in one basket [3]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" emphasizes diversification across three dimensions: asset types (stocks, bonds, commodities), markets (domestic and international), and time (long-term dollar-cost averaging) to create a balanced investment portfolio [4][5]. Group 6: Investment Philosophy - The Snowball Three-Part Method aims to provide a systematic asset allocation strategy that can withstand various market conditions, focusing on building a robust portfolio rather than chasing short-term gains [5][6]. - Successful investing is framed as a disciplined approach to managing uncertainty and volatility, with an emphasis on scientific allocation rather than mere passive holding [5].

长按即可参与 "只要我不卖，就割不到我"——这句话曾激励无数投资者，但也道出不少人心中的无奈。它背后 折射出一个朴素的投资信念：投资嘛，只要长期拿着，总会回本的。但当经历投资周期的洗礼 后，许多投资者却发现，财富并没有随着时间流逝而增长，长期的持有反而变成了长期的苦难。 为什么我们持有这么久，却拿不到时间的回报？长期投资是市场的谎言吗？今天我们来谈谈，为 什么持有并不等于回本，为什么长期的投资对于绝大多数人变成了痛苦的无奈之举。 乐视网的案例堪称经典。2015年，作为"互联网+"概念的领军企业，乐视网风光无限，市值一度突 破1700亿元。彼时，无数投资者坚信只要持有这样一家"伟大的公司"，财富自然水到渠成。然 而，当公司治理出现问题，当商业模式经不起考验，当财务造假曝光，一切美好愿景都化为泡 影。2020年，乐视网最终退市，众多坚持"长期持有"的投资者血本无归。个股投资风险巨大，经 营失败、行业周期变迁或公司治理问题可能让长期持有者一无所获。 不仅是个股如此，即使是集合了众多股票的主动管理型基金，也并非"永生"。市场竞争激烈，投 资策略失效、管理团队变动等因素都可能导致基金业绩长期低迷，甚至最终走向清盘。不管 ...

近期，部分*ST股走势明显升温，主要原因在于有资金进场豪赌摘帽或者业绩好转预期，但跟风追涨 *ST股并不可取，对应的投资风险较大，毕竟*ST股风险高于一般股票，如果利好预期落空，可能会出 现爆雷风险。 面对*ST股票的诱惑，投资者务必保持谨慎心态。投资股票的本质是分享公司的成长收益，而不是赌 博。因此，在选择投资标的时，投资者应重点关注公司的基本面、盈利能力、行业地位等因素，而不是 仅仅追逐短期股价的波动。 对于*ST股票而言，尽管部分公司可能存在利好预期，但投资者仍需谨慎对待。在决定是否买入之前， 应深入了解公司的财务状况、经营能力、行业前景等因素，并进行充分的风险评估。 投资者还应树立正确的投资理念，坚持价值投资、长期投资的原则。不要被市场的短期波动所迷惑，而 是要通过深入研究和分析，找到真正具有投资价值的上市公司。投资者炒作*ST股票，虽然可能会有极 低的概率获取超额收益，但是大概率会以大幅亏损结束，很不划算。 首先是*ST股票的退市风险。*ST股票之所以被披星戴帽，是因为其存在被终止上市的风险。如果相关 情形无法改善，最终可能会面临退市的风险，导致股票价格大幅缩水甚至归零。这对于投资者来说，无 疑是最 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问螺丝钉，能不能针对 全球股票指数、美债指数等 ， 做个估值表。 目前内地能买到的、投资海外市场的基金品种不多。 不过在海外这些品种比较丰富。 可以先从指数估值的角度，了解海外市场不同品种的估值情况。 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。 每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 海外市场指数数量很多，后面大家 有希望增加的品种 ，可以反馈给螺丝钉。 目前螺丝钉后台系统，已经覆盖海外主流的几百只指数品种。 螺丝钉也做了一个全球股票市场的星级走势图。 在2018年、2020年、2022年，是前几次全球股票市场4-5星的低估阶段。 前两周全球股票市场大跌后，回到了4.1-4.2星上下的水平； 最近全球股票市场反弹，回到了3.9星上下。 1. 这周出差到大湾区，顺便去香港办点事情。 上次去香港还是几年前了。 相比上次去香港，电子支付普及率大幅提高。 前几年还得用八达通卡。 现在坐地铁、便利店支付、住酒店、大多数商场、以及部分餐馆，都可以用微信和支付宝直接支付了。 甚至需要临时换钱，也可以用支付宝和微信直接取现金（就是直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The departure of Cheng Fei from Guosen Securities to join Dongfang Hong Asset Management marks a significant shift in the asset management landscape, highlighting the ongoing changes and challenges within the industry [2][10]. Group 1: Cheng Fei's Departure and Background - Cheng Fei resigned from his position as Vice President of Guosen Securities after nearly four years, with plans to join Dongfang Hong Asset Management [2][3]. - He has nearly 20 years of experience in the asset management industry, particularly in fixed income investment research, having previously worked at Guotai Junan [3][4]. - During his tenure at Guosen Securities, Cheng aimed to enhance the performance of the asset management business and establish a subsidiary, which he successfully accomplished [6][8]. Group 2: Performance and Achievements at Guosen Securities - Under Cheng's leadership, the asset management revenue at Guosen Securities increased from 2.27% of total revenue in 2021 to 4.23% in 2024, with a revenue of 850 million yuan in the last year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.55% [6][7]. - The ranking of Guosen Securities' asset management business improved from 22nd in 2021 to 13th in the first half of 2024 in terms of net income from fees among 43 listed brokerages [7]. - Cheng emphasized a focus on high-net-worth clients and the development of distinctive products during his time at Guosen [8]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Dongfang Hong Asset Management - Dongfang Hong Asset Management, which has faced a decline in its asset management scale and brand reputation, reported a revenue of 1.435 billion yuan and a net profit of 333 million yuan for 2024 [11]. - The company's assets under management (AUM) have decreased from a peak of 269.72 billion yuan in 2021 to 166.17 billion yuan by the end of 2024, dropping its ranking from 24th to 41st among public fund institutions [11][12]. - The firm has experienced significant turnover in its investment research team, with 13 fund managers leaving since 2020, which poses a challenge for maintaining investment performance and client trust [12][13].

| 曲丁宏源证券 _ 该懂布场参与者 11 1 R 电视剧《天道》里有句话:"神就是道,道 就是规律，按规律办事的人就是神。" 任何事物都有其内在的规律,我们只有真正 理解并遵循规律，才能事半功倍，取得最后的成 功。投资亦是如此。 我们的股市由不同的市场参与者组成，包括 个人投资者、机构投资者、企业和政府,他们的 行为和决策共同影响着市场的走势。 想要理解股市的运行规律,以更好地把握市 场机会,制定投资策略,就需要充分理解每个参 与者的行为模式。 接下来,就让我带您 -- 了解。 我们的股市由不同的市场参与者组 他们的行为和决策共同影响 首先，个人投资者，也就是我们常说的散 从上海证券交易所统计年鉴（2024卷），我 们可以看到，截至2023年底，个人投资者持股账 户为4549.32万户，占比达99.71%。 短期波动。 2023年末自然人投资者持股情况 i厅90% 的投资者 股本不到100万 低于10万的高达 2269 - 12 第二,机构投资者,包括公募基金、企业年 金、保险机构、信托机构、社会保障基金等，他 们通常拥有专业的投资团队和大量的资金。 截至2023年底，机构投资者持股账户占比 0.16%，持 ...

高频资产 HB l 2 SA 工作地点:上海 行业研究员(可选消费方向) 渠道销售岗 公司将为候选人提供 有市场竞争力的薪酬待遇。 不拘一格访寻人才! 只要你够优秀, 就能加入国内顶级私募基金团队, 与众多优秀人才共同成长! 招聘职位 行业研究员 (可选消费方向) 需求人数：1人 岗位职责: 根据团队分工,对所覆盖行业和公司进行深入研究,挖 掘投资机会,进行投资研究分析。 江阳西十 工 -- 女 小 · 1、具有1年以上资产管理机构、证券公司等研究工作经 验,覆盖汽车、家电等可选消费领域; 2、对行业研究工作有极强的热情和好奇心,有较强的 学习能力，分析总结能力强,善于表达,抗压能力强, 愿意长期从事行业研究分析工作; 3、流利的英语口语,英语可作为工作语言者优先。 十刀 H由 A门 六 10 45 × 17 渠道销售岗 工作地点:深圳、上海 需求人数:2人 岗位职责: 1、负责银行、券商、第三方销售机构的开发及日常维 护、销售组织及推动、售后维护工作; 2、负责产品运作信息、市场观点和投研资讯等各类日常数 据材料的分析、整理和制作。 任职要求: 1、金融、经济、管理等相关专业本科或以上学历,具备 一定的证券 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ·37%的投资者,持有不到90天卖出,平 均收益3%。 ·能坚持持有5年以上的，只有0.4%。 0.4%是什么概念呢? 举个例子,高三考生考大学,在山东能考 上985的，占当年所有考生的1.4%。 而坚持持有基金5年的投资者只有0.4%。 比一个学生考上985，还要难3倍以上。 那怎么才能坚持下来呢?这里也介绍3个 方法。 (1) 用长期不用的闲钱投资 投资者中途放弃的一个很重要的原因,是 「短钱长投」。原本没打算做长期投资, 把几个月就要用的钱投入了。 市场短期的涨跌无法预测。每次市场在低 迷阶段，持续的时间长度也是不同的。 这也是为什么一直建议大家，用3-5年以 上长期不用的闲钱投资。这样中间遇到大 涨大跌，才更容易拿得住。 (2) 分散配置 如果投资者单个品种过于重仓，可能就会 比较难受了。甚至会有不少投资者会倒在 上涨到来之前。 所以，投资的时候,做好分散配置,是减 少波动风险的好方法。 (3) 在低估区域投资 字 。 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 股票资产中,单个股票,波动比单个行业 大很多；单个行业的波动，比分散配置的 一个组合的波动大很多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of quantitative investment, emphasizing the unique advantages of human decision-making over AI in the investment process, particularly in understanding the "why" and "how" behind investment outcomes [2][3][6][21]. Group 1: Investment Process and Decision-Making - Investment is framed as a game of uncertainty, where the focus should be on the decision-making process rather than short-term results [3][5]. - A good investment process involves understanding three key aspects: what is happening, why it is happening, and how the results are derived [6]. - AI excels in identifying "what" but lacks in understanding "why" and "how," which are critical for effective decision-making [6][10]. Group 2: Creativity and Challenging Consensus - The ability to challenge prevailing consensus is highlighted as a source of excess returns, with unique and scarce value being more valuable in the long term [8][9]. - Human creativity allows for the questioning of established norms, which AI cannot replicate [7][8]. Group 3: Role of Quantitative Techniques - Quantitative techniques are viewed as tools for capturing signals but do not inherently provide advantages in value judgment [10]. - The long-term excess returns from stocks are attributed to the sustainable operational advantages of the companies, rather than merely statistical signals [10][11]. Group 4: Handling Data and Anomalies - Historical data is essential for investment strategies, but anomalies must be carefully managed to avoid skewing results [14][15]. - The approach to handling large-cap stocks as anomalies in data sets is discussed, emphasizing the need for preprocessing to mitigate their impact [14]. Group 5: Differentiation in Investment Strategies - Differences in performance between indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500 are attributed to the varying composition of stocks and their respective weights in the indices [16][17]. - The article suggests that personal investors should focus on areas of expertise to identify differentiated investment opportunities [18][19].