加拿大央行维持关键利率不变 但未来可能降息 金十数据6月4日讯，加拿大央行周三将关键基准利率维持在2.75%不变，称有必要调查美国贸易政策的 影响，但表示，如果经济因关税而走弱，可能有必要再次降息。这一决定标志着加拿大央行连续第二次 持观望态度，此前9个月的大幅降息周期将利率已下调了225个基点。加拿大央行行长在新闻发布会上 说："美国发起的贸易冲突仍然是加拿大经济面临的最大逆风。"他形容美国的贸易政策高度不可预测。 他表示："在我们获得更多信息的同时，我们有一个明确的共识，即保持政策不变。" ...

1. 越南1-5月外资流入达89亿美元，同比增长7.9%。 2. 日本内阁官房长官林芳正：日本尚未收到美国关于贸易谈判中提出最佳报价的信函。 金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（6月4日） 美元： 非美主要货币： 7. 英国央行-①行长贝利：利率走向仍然偏向下行。逐步且审慎仍将是制定利率的指导原则。②委员曼 恩：在利率方面采取更大胆的举措比长期按兵不动要好。③副行长布里登：即使没有关税冲击，五月份 也有理由降息。 其他： 3. 泰国联合企业集团预计2025年泰国GDP增长率为1.5%至2.0%（此前预期为2.0%至2.2%）。 1. 美国4月空缺职位意外大增，支持美联储就业市场状况良好的说法。 2. 美国4月工厂订单月率录得-3.7%，为2024年1月以来最大降幅。 3. 美联储博斯蒂克：仍然认为今年可能会有一次降息。 4. 美联储洛根：应专注于实现2%的通胀目标，而不是试图弥补过去的通胀不足。 5. 马斯克：巨大的过度支出将使美国成为债务奴隶！ 1. 中国央行今日开展2149亿元7天逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平。 2. 澳大利亚一季度经济不及市场预期，强化澳洲联储加速降息的预期。 3. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain the overnight rate at 2.75%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate adjustments amid increasing uncertainty in the economic landscape [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Economists and markets anticipate that the Bank of Canada, led by Governor Macklem, will keep the overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% [1] - The central bank may indicate readiness to act swiftly if economic data worsens or if they gain sufficient insight into the developments of trade disputes [1] - **Economic Conditions** - The lack of clarity in the global trade situation may compel the Bank of Canada to remain inactive for the time being [1] - Andrew Kelvin, head of Canadian and global rates strategy at TD Securities, suggests that the central bank is unlikely to feel more certain about the global trade outlook for the remainder of the year [1] - The domestic economy is described as resilient enough, allowing the central bank the flexibility to wait until July before considering a rate cut [1]

美联储理事库克：无法预先判断联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将如何调整利率。 ...

摘要北京时间周二(6月3日)亚欧时段，美元指数上涨，现报98.92，金价目前交投于3361.26美元/盎司， 跌幅0.58%，最高触及3392.00美元/盎司，最低触及3350.71美元/盎司。北京时间周二22:00，美国劳工统 计局将公布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)，预计这一重量级就业数据将引发本交易日金价大行 情。 市场普遍预期，欧洲央行将在本周四将基准利率下调至2%，仅为一年前峰值的一半，且远低于美联储 的利率水平。这一利率水平被认为是"中性"利率，即既不刺激也不抑制经济增长的平衡点。 更引人注目的是，经过连续八次降息后，欧洲央行的实际利率（经通胀调整后）已降至零，为近两年来 首次。 然而，令人意外的是，欧元并未因降息而走弱，反而在短短四个月内对美元飙升了10%以上，贸易加权 欧元汇率也上涨了5%。欧元名义有效汇率指数创下历史新高，实际汇率指数更是达到十余年来的最高 水平。 【黄金技术分析】 Economies.com的分析师今日最新观点：在最近的日内交易中，金价出现了回调走势，以消化之前上涨 行情的涨幅。这是在尝试通过缓解相对强弱指数（RSI）上明显的超买状况来获得新的上涨动能，尤其 是在负 ...

澳洲联储会议纪要：此前考虑维持利率不变，或将利率下调25个基点或50个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The International Financial Association warns that the increase in US debt could trigger a global bond market crisis, as borrowing costs in some countries are linked to US Treasury yields [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen emphasizes that the US will not default on its debt and urges Congress to raise the debt ceiling to avoid global economic turmoil, dismissing claims of a collapse in the US bond market [1] - The US April trade deficit narrowed to $87.6 billion, significantly lower than expected, due to a sharp decline in goods imports [5] Group 2 - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizumi plans to visit the US for trade negotiations, with market expectations that a deal may be reached this month [3] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate a worsening supply-demand situation for ultra-long-term bonds, leading to rising interest rates and tightening market liquidity [4] - The US manufacturing PMI for May dropped to 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, with sales cost inflation reaching its highest level since late 2022 [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials express that current inflation data is favorable, with limited direct impact from tariffs on the economy, and anticipate a potential decrease in interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months [1] - The Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE price index rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the smallest increase in over four years, while "super core inflation" fell to its lowest level in four years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - **International Gold**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - **International Silver**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].

美联储表示，鲍威尔在会面中没有讨论对货币政策的预期，只是强调政策路径将完全取决于未来的经济 数据以及这些数据对经济前景的影响。鲍威尔强调，他本人及联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的同事将 根据法律规定，制定旨在支持最大就业和物价稳定的货币政策，并且 所有决策都将基于仔细、客观、 非政治化的分析。 白宫方面表示，特朗普在与鲍威尔自其就任总统以来的首次面对面会晤中，敦促鲍威尔降低利率。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特周四在简报会上表示， 特朗普对鲍威尔表示，他认为美联储主席未能降息是一个错误 的决策。 莱维特表示，这一决定让我们在经济上处于相对于其他国家的劣势，总统对此一直非常直言不讳，不论 是公开场合还是——现在我可以透露——私下场合也是如此。两人并未讨论特朗普是否会寻求罢免鲍威 尔的问题。 从美联储发布的通稿来看，面对特朗普降息的呼声，鲍威尔依然选择了坚守美联储的独立性。 美东时间周四，美股主要股指高开低走小幅收涨，截止收盘，道指涨0.28%，纳指涨0.39%，标普500指 数涨0.4%，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉涨幅不足1%，英伟达涨超3%，博通涨超 1%。半导体板块涨幅居前，美国像素涨超6%，微芯科技 ...

——从关税冲击到降息迷途，全球市场屏息以待 一份凌晨发布的会议纪要，撕开了美联储面对的两难困局：一面是关税助推的通胀火焰，一面是就业市 场的降温预警，而夹在中间的，是全球资本市场的剧烈波动。 北京时间5月29日凌晨2点，美联储公布了5月货币政策会议纪要，首次将"关税冲击"纳入核心议题，并 罕见警告未来可能面临通胀与失业"双升"的艰难权衡。这份被市场称为"风暴预警"的文件，不仅揭示了 美国经济政策的内部分歧，更暴露了全球金融体系在政治不确定性下的脆弱性。 一、会议纪要核心信号：三重压力下的"政策悬崖" 1. 通胀顽固性远超预期 长期通胀预期脱锚风险：核心PCE通胀率仍达2.6%，美联储预计2027年前难回2%目标，滞胀阴影笼 罩。 关税成为新推手：几乎所有与会官员指出，特朗普政府加征的关税正被企业转嫁给消费者，甚至非关税 影响企业也借机提价，导致通胀"向上漂移风险加剧"。 2. 就业市场韧性面临考验 尽管当前失业率稳定在4.2%，但企业因贸易不确定性已开始冻结招聘，制造业、农业等关税敏感行业 首当其冲。纪要直言"劳动力市场疲软风险正在累积"。 3. 金融稳定警报拉响 美元避险地位动摇：长期美债收益率上升与美元贬 ...