| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/19 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/16 | 4.480 | 4.648 | 3.262 | 2.589 | 3.595 | 3.211 | 0.295 | 3.341 | | 最新变化 | 0.047 | -0.011 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.031 | -0.024 | -0.019 | -0.042 | | 一周变化 | 0.100 | 0.082 | -0.002 | 0.028 | -0.013 | 0.006 | 0.023 | -0.016 | | 一月变化 | 0.144 | 0.001 | -0.031 | 0.057 | -0.120 | -0.028 | -0.15 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields by the end of 2025, predicting a 10-year yield of 4.5% and a 2-year yield of 3.9% due to various economic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Predictions - The U.S. economy continues to grow above potential levels, with a tight labor market driving wage increases [3]. - The pace of inflation decline is slowing, with core PCE potentially not reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target until 2026 [3]. - Expectations for a rate cut cycle have been delayed, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the median federal funds rate to remain between 4.0% and 4.25% in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Implications of Yield Changes - An increase in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% may lead to significant adjustments in cross-asset allocations, potentially suppressing valuations in the tech sector due to rising corporate financing costs [3]. - Rising borrowing costs may pressure the real estate and high-yield bond markets [3]. - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields could lead to a return of foreign capital, increasing volatility in emerging market currencies [3]. - Traditional investment strategies may need reevaluation as the "stock-bond balance" strategy becomes ineffective [3]. Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Goldman Sachs warns of risks from economic overheating and policy missteps, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts could drive energy prices higher, potentially pushing the 10-year yield up to 5% in the short term [4]. - If the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates early due to financial stability risks, the yield curve may experience a steepening reversal [4].

2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.716个基点，报+73.202个基点，本周累跌4.252个基点。 周五（5月16日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌3.2个基点，报2.590%，本周累计上涨2.8个基 点，周一至周三持续走高，最高涨至2.701%，周四和周五回吐涨幅，周五北京时间18:15报2.563%几乎 完全回吐本周稍早涨幅。 两年期德债收益率跌2.4个基点，报1.855%，本周累涨7.0个基点，周三欧股盘前涨至1.952%，随后持续 回落，周五一度接近1.840%；30年期德债收益率跌2.7个基点，报3.040%，本周累涨2.1个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond yields have experienced notable fluctuations this week, with the 10-year yield rising significantly, indicating market volatility and potential shifts in investor sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Categories 10-Year Bond Yield - The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 8.0 basis points, closing at 4.648% on Friday, May 16, after reaching a peak of 4.723% earlier in the week [1] Short-Term Bond Yields - The 2-year UK bond yield rose by a total of 9.7 basis points, ending at 4.005%, starting from 3.930% on Monday and peaking at 4.032% on Wednesday [1] Long-Term Bond Yields - The 30-year UK bond yield saw an increase of 4.6 basis points, closing at 5.392%, while the 50-year bond yield rose by 10.4 basis points to 4.669% [1] Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds decreased by 1.542 basis points, now standing at +64.066 basis points [1]

本周，法国10年期国债收益率累计下跌0.5个基点，周五（5月16日）欧市尾盘报3.260%，周一至周三震 荡上行，最高达到3.381%，周四和周五回落。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

日本10年期国债收益率下跌2.5个基点，至1.45%。 ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/15 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/14 | 4.538 | 4.712 | 3.378 | 2.698 | 3.710 | 3.316 | 0.354 | 3.458 | | 最新变化 | 0.071 | 0.043 | 0.025 | 0.020 | 0.013 | 0.019 | -0.009 | 0.010 | | 一周变化 | 0.267 | 0.254 | 0.184 | 0.225 | 0.163 | 0.188 | 0.158 | 0.164 | | 一月变化 | 0.046 | -0.040 | 0.027 | 0.131 | -0.100 | 0.019 | -0.041 | -0.062 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased due to the low base, mainly contributed by government bonds, while credit performance was sluggish [2][9]. - The negative growth of residents' short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, and the demand for enterprises' short - term loans was overdrawn in March, with weak performance of medium - and long - term loans under internal and external pressures [3][4]. - Recently, the credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle, and the export chain is not the main factor disturbing the credit cycle [5][6]. - The interest rate point corresponding to the financing data is around 1.8%, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing and Credit Situation - **Social Financing Growth Driven by Government Bonds**: In April 2025, the stock social financing growth rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%. Government bonds contributed 84% of the new social financing, with an increase of 1.07 trillion yuan year - on - year to 976.2 billion yuan. In contrast, RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased by 250.5 billion yuan year - on - year to 84.4 billion yuan, hitting a record low for the same period [2][9]. - **Residents' Credit**: In April, residents' sector credit decreased by 5 billion yuan year - on - year to - 521.6 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 50.1 billion yuan year - on - year to - 401.9 billion yuan, a record low for the same period. The potential unemployment pressure increased, which affected residents' short - term loans. Medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, and the sales volume growth rate of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved compared with the same period last year [3][14]. - **Enterprise Credit**: In April, new enterprise credit decreased by 25 billion yuan year - on - year to 61 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 7 billion yuan year - on - year to - 48 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans decreased by 16 billion yuan year - on - year to 25 billion yuan. The negative growth of short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, possibly due to the over - borrowing in March. The medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate continued to decline by 0.18 percentage points to 8.8% [4][18]. 3.2 Impact of Credit and Export Cycles on Interest Rates - **Greater Impact of Credit Cycle on Interest Rates**: Since 2024, the new export order index has performed well, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield has gradually declined. The decline trend of enterprise medium - and long - term loan growth rate is more consistent with the treasury bond trend, indicating that the domestic credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle [5][19]. - **Limited Impact of Export Chain on Credit**: After detailed calculations, the proportion of credit directly and indirectly related to exports in the overall enterprise credit scale is about 20% in recent years, suggesting that domestic factors are the main forces affecting credit [6][24]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Credit Outlook - **Equilibrium Interest Rate Point**: As of April, the growth rate of the stock social financing excluding government bonds was 6.02%, slightly up 0.1 percentage point from March, corresponding to an interest rate point of 1.82%. The suspension of tariff shocks may have two - sided effects, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25].

智通财经5月15日电，美国10年期国债收益率升至4.55%，为一个月高点。 ...