施罗德投资金属基金经理James Luke指，黄金的基本面长期已经呈现正面迹象。通过有效地摆脱美国作 为储备货币发行国的角色，美国总统特朗普正在为这些趋势加码。长期的环球地缘政治及财政趋势有可 能推动黄金市场出现强劲的牛市，但须重申，如果金价不大幅上升，黄金市场的规模根本不足以吸收在 全球同步出现的买盘。特朗普正在加速并增强这项全球同步竞标的潜力。 特朗普保护主义具滞胀特质 黄金受惠关税致资金回流 施罗德投资表示，在基本预测情景下，特朗普的保护主义议程具有周期性滞胀特质。滞胀为风险资产带 来痛苦，但往往非常利好黄金。从整个大局来看可能更具震撼性。通过根据贸易逆差规模而非实际的贸 易障碍建议征收高额关税，特朗普明确表示，美国想要的不是自由贸易，而是平衡贸易。这种对贸易逆 差的排斥是对全球化最严厉的谢绝，亦可视为对以美元为中心的环球货币体系实质上的排斥。 在12个月前，预测2030年黄金达到5000美元/盎司的价格并不令人感到夸张。现在，这个价格则显得较 为保守。 黄金作为货币资产而非大宗商品资产而上涨 对于黄金股票而言，目前的价格很有可能转化为广泛股票市场中任何行业板块最大的盈利和自由现金流 增长。尽管如此，投 ...

Core Insights - The gold market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but long-term supportive factors for gold prices remain intact [1][10] Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks play a crucial role in the gold market, providing essential support for gold prices. In Q1 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 244 tons, with China continuously increasing its gold reserves [3] - Emerging market countries are driven by various factors such as "de-dollarization," optimizing foreign exchange reserves, and enhancing currency credibility, leading to sustained demand for gold [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Although geopolitical tensions have eased, potential risks persist. Issues such as U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and India-Pakistan tensions remain uncertain and could escalate [4] - Should geopolitical tensions rise again, market risk aversion will likely increase, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset and driving up its price [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy faces concerns of "stagflation," with slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures. Although current inflation data appears moderate, future inflation may rise due to tariff effects and uneven global economic recovery [6] - If inflation increases, real interest rates will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby enhancing its appeal as an inflation hedge [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Trends and Federal Reserve Policy - The relationship between the dollar and gold prices is typically negative. Recently, the dollar index rebounded from 98.35 to 101.97, creating upward pressure on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [8] - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy contributes to volatility in the gold market. Divergent statements from Fed officials regarding interest rate hikes and cuts complicate market predictions [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite recent fluctuations in the gold market, core factors supporting gold price increases, such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation uncertainties, remain [10] - Short-term market dynamics, including market sentiment, dollar trends, and Federal Reserve policies, will continue to influence gold prices, leading to high volatility [10]

值得庆幸的是，此后所谓的对等关税被暂停实施 90 天。这一举措让布拉德对局势的发展多了一份乐观，他认为这为特朗普政府争取到了宝贵的时间，使其 有机会在对美国经济造成不可挽回的损害之前，通过谈判达成合理的贸易协议。不过，他也强调："但他们必须继续推进(贸易谈判)。" 目前，白宫不仅与中 国达成了 90 天的关税豁免期，还在积极推进与其他国家的贸易谈判，试图消除特朗普口中的 "贸易壁垒"。 dbg盾博发现在全球经济紧密相连的当下，美国的贸易政策变动总能引发轩然大波。特朗普推出的 "解放日" 关税，犹如一颗重磅炸弹，在国际市场掀起巨 浪。不到一周，前圣路易斯联储主席吉姆・布拉德(Jim Bullard)在电视上的一番言论，更是让各界对美国贸易政策的走向充满担忧与警惕。 吉姆・布拉德提及的《斯姆特 - 霍利关税法》，在美国经济历史上堪称 "臭名昭著"。这部于 1930 年出台的法案，作为典型的保护主义贸易政策，大幅提高 了数千种美国进口商品的关税。这一举措如同打开了潘多拉魔盒，迅速引发了一场全球性的贸易战。众多历史学家指出，这场贸易战对当时的世界经济造成 了毁灭性打击，不仅严重阻碍了国际贸易的正常流通，更使得全球经济 ...

Market Performance - On May 14, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.72%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Dow Jones down 0.21% [1][5] - Large tech stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia and Tesla both gaining over 4% [1][7] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.17%, outperforming the broader market [11] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with Tencent Music up over 15% and Li Auto up nearly 3% [1][11] - Alibaba, Baidu, and TAL Education also rose close to 2% [1][11] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures fell 1.91% to $3185.7 per ounce, while silver futures dropped 2.23% to $32.37 per ounce [4] - International crude oil futures also declined, with WTI June futures down 0.82% to $63.15 per barrel [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson warned that new tariff policies could increase inflation uncertainty [4][16] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized the importance of not reacting to daily market fluctuations, indicating a stable economic outlook [17] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's Shanghai factory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in April, marking a one-year high [11] - Nvidia and AMD are expected to benefit significantly from AI infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia, with potential revenues estimated between $3 billion to $5 billion annually [11] - Tencent reported Q1 2025 revenue of 180.02 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in its advertising and gaming segments [14][15]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant rise in AI-related stocks, with AMD reaching its highest intraday level since January 30, showing a nearly 17% increase [3][4] - Tencent Music experienced a notable surge, rising over 11% after opening high [7][8] - Other popular Chinese concept stocks also saw increases, including Tuya, Dingdong, and BOSS Zhipin, with gains ranging from 2.94% to 5.59% [9] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent drop in international gold prices, which fell below $1,180, and a decrease in oil prices [10] - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [11][12] - The article notes that the inflation trend in the U.S. is cooling, with stable prices in categories like clothing and new cars, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the increased tariff costs [13][14] Group 3 - The article mentions that small business confidence in the U.S. has declined for four consecutive months, reflecting a pessimistic outlook due to tariff increases [15] - Despite the lower inflation data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been pushed back, indicating uncertainty in economic policy [21][22] - The article emphasizes that while the recent tariff reductions have alleviated some cost pressures, the overall inflationary environment remains complex and uncertain [19][23]

耶鲁预算实验室的数据显示，即使考虑到最新的政策变化，美国的平均有效关税税率仍高达17.8%，为 1934年以来的最高水平，比美国总统特朗普第二任期前的平均有效关税税率提高了15.4个百分点。 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 美国关键通胀数据或许正迎来最后的宁静。 美国4月CPI连续三个月低于预期。当地时间5月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国4月CPI同 比增长2.3%，为2021年2月以来新低，市场预期为2.4%；4月CPI环比增长0.2%，高于上月的-0.1%，低 于市场预期的0.3%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，美国4月核心CPI同比增长2.8%，符合预期，保持在2021年3月以来 的最低水平；4月核心CPI环比增长0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%。 不过，企业终将把更高的关税成本转嫁出去，未来仍存在通胀上行风险。经济学家普遍预计，关税影响 的顶峰可能会在夏季到来。 通胀为何意外平稳？ 整体来看，美国4月份消费者价格涨幅低于预期，服装和新车价格平稳，显示企业迄今尚未急于把更高 的关税成本转嫁给消费者。 最新数据凸显了美国经济的两大潜在趋势。一方面，受到关税上调影响的新车、服装等商品类别 ...

在美国纵容特朗普以"解放日"关税震惊全球不到一周后，前圣路易斯联储主席吉姆・布拉德（Jim Bullard）在电视上说出了大多数经济学家在噩梦中才会提到的一个词：《斯姆特-霍利关税法》 （TheSmoot-Hawley Tariff Act）。 1930年的《斯穆特 - 霍利关税法》被视为美国国会历史上最"灾难性"的立法之一，这是一项保护主义贸 易政策，提高了数千种美国进口商品的关税，引发了一场全球贸易战，历史学家称这场贸易战加剧了大 萧条。 布拉德在接受全国性电视媒体采访时警告称，特朗普的关税"显著增加了"出现类似《斯姆特-霍利关税 法》后果的风险。 布拉德在接受Bankrate的独家采访时进一步阐述了他登上头条新闻的言论，他说："其他国家没有通过 谈判来回应，而是提高了他们的关税，然后在1930年至1931年期间，全球贸易出现了崩溃。这在很大程 度上加剧了大萧条，所以我们不希望出现那种情况。没人希望那样，但这是（关税举措）可能导致的后 果之一。" 从那以后，所谓的对等关税已暂停实施90天。这些举措让布拉德更加乐观地认为，特朗普政府能够在对 美国经济造成不可挽回的损害之前达成贸易协议。 他补充道："但他们必 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is expected to experience significant price increases, potentially surpassing $4500 per ounce due to various economic factors, including anticipated inflation in the U.S. and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of May 14, 2025, the gold ETF fund has decreased by 0.81%, with a latest price of 7.26 yuan [3]. - The fund's latest scale reached 29.08 billion yuan, with a total of 3.975 billion shares, marking a one-year high [3]. - Over the past five days, the fund has seen continuous net inflows, totaling 388 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of approximately 77.53 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Historical Returns - The gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 94.89% over the past five years, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - Since its inception, the fund's highest monthly return was 10.62%, with a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 16.53% [4]. - The fund has a historical three-year profit probability of 100% and an annual profit percentage of 80% [4]. Group 3: Risk and Fees - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [4]. - The maximum drawdown for the year to date is 8.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.30% [4]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 2.92, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4].

最近，全球经济舞台上似乎吹来了一阵暖风。 先是中美贸易战迎来了90天的"休战期"，这让紧张的市场情绪得到了缓解，对经济衰退的担忧也随之减 轻。 紧接着，备受关注的美国4月份消费者价格指数（CPI）公布，数据显示通胀年化率降至2.3%，这已经 是连续第三个月出现降温，离美联储设定的2%通胀目标越来越近。 贸易战暂停，通胀数据向好，这看起来都是积极信号。 特朗普也一再向美联储施压，这不昨晚又喊话了，称美联储一再推迟降息"對已經準備好開花結果的美 國不公平"。 再者，当前的经济数据也呈现出喜忧参半的局面。尽管美国经济在2025年第一季度出现了0.3%的收 缩，但4月份的就业报告却显示劳动力市场依然强劲，新增就业岗位超出了预期。 这种矛盾的信号增加了经济前景的复杂性。美联储主席鲍威尔自己也坦言，他对经济路径的不确定性感 到"非常高"。 华尔街的主流观点也倾向于美联储会保持谨慎。包括高盛和德意志银行在内的多家机构都预计，美联储 首次降息的时间会比之前预期的更晚，可能要到12月才会开始，而且降息的步伐也会比较缓慢。 他们认为，随着经济增长保持稳定，失业率没有急剧上升，对激进降息来刺激经济的需求就没那么迫切 了。 那么，是 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.33% as of the report date [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.46%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.94% [1] - Notably, Huaxia Fund announced a reduction in trading fees for the Gold Stock ETF (159562) and its linked funds, effective May 15, 2025, lowering management fees from 0.50% to 0.15% and custody fees from 0.10% to 0.05%, making it the lowest fee level in the market for similar products [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities believes that the core drivers for gold price increases in 2025, amid U.S. "stagflation" expectations, have not yet fully played out, indicating significant potential for the current gold upcycle [1] - The firm has constructed a gold space measurement framework, predicting that increased "stagflation" pressures in the U.S. will initiate a new round of gold price increases [1] - The outlook for gold stocks remains positive, with expectations of a "Davis Double" effect combined with undervaluation and increased institutional allocation, maintaining a "bottom layout" judgment [1] Group 3 - Huatai Futures noted that while the Federal Reserve is currently holding steady, other central banks are still engaging in rate cuts, leading to a temporary recovery in market risk sentiment [2] - Despite concerns about U.S. economic recession easing, the market's rate cut expectations have adjusted to 56 basis points, aligning with Federal Reserve forecasts, suggesting limited negative impact on gold prices from interest rate logic [2] - Tianfeng Futures indicated that the recent alleviation of external disturbances may prolong the time needed for gold prices to rebound, as credit logic's headwinds could continue to develop [2]