Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil rose by 0.97% and 0.50% respectively, while rapeseed oil fell by 1.42%. In the short - term, palm oil is at risk of volatility as the market awaits the MPOB report; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives but needs time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of drivers. In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil's price trend depends on China - Canada trade relations; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) increased from 8678 to 8762, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price increased by 2.13%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) decreased from 9757 to 9618, a weekly decrease of 1.42%, and the spot price decreased by 0.89%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) increased from 8040 to 8080, a weekly increase of 0.50%, and the spot price decreased by 0.57% [4] Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of December 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 140 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week), 427 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan/ton), and 34 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 682 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1.02 million tons (down 0.23 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons (down 1.36 million tons), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 117.88 million tons (down 0.11 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 184.25 million tons (down 1.7 million tons) [10] Palm Oil Supply - Side - As of December 5, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8864 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 128 yuan/ton (up 96 yuan/ton). SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in November was 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [13] Soybean Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 956.70 million tons (up 14.2 million tons from the previous week), the main oil factory soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons (up 18.97 million tons), and the oil factory operating rate was 57% (down 2% from the previous week). As of December 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 531.40 yuan/ton (up 1.8 yuan/ton) [16] Rapeseed Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the total oil factory rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (the same as the previous week), and the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2260.60 yuan/ton (up 153.8 yuan/ton) [19] Demand - Side - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 300 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 3500 tons. The POGO spread was 422.74 US dollars/ton (up 46.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [22] Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the revocation of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to US biofuel policies. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations. - Abroad: US soybeans are affected by South American weather and US soybean exports. South American weather in southern Brazil and Argentina will be dry before mid - December. Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high due to falling exports and record - high production. - Import and Pressing: The oil factory operating rate decreased by 2% from the previous week, and soybean inventory increased. The oil factory rapeseed inventory remained at 0.1 million tons. - Inventory: As of November 28, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory, palm oil factory commercial inventory, and national soybean oil factory inventory all decreased. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil rising 2.13%, rapeseed oil falling 0.89%, and soybean oil falling 0.57% [23] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Wait for the MPOB report for palm oil and pay attention to volatility risks; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; closely monitor China - Canada trade relations for rapeseed oil; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings - Biofuel policy, China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and the shutdown of oil mills, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a state of high - level wide - range shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9,618 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2,422 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 14.6 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5,509 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 181 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 27 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2]. - Positions: The positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 16,785 hands to 140,400 hands; the positions of the main contract of rapeseed meal decreased by 39,429 hands to 205,310 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 6,619 hands to - 5,838 hands; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal decreased by 10,262 hands to - 45,128 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,168.75 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,750.12 yuan/ton, down 164.41 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 339 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 32 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,330 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 0 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, an increase of 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 10,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 729 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 100 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 355,000 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 212,600 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 9,200 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 243,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 11,200 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2.957 million tons, a decrease of 171,700 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons, a decrease of 67,400 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 51.99 billion yuan, an increase of 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.13%, down 0.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 13.36%, down 1.48% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.13%, down 1.69%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 20.85%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 11.87%, down 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 13.57%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the decline of CBOT soybean oil futures, and traders were waiting for the annual final production report of Statistics Canada [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply, and face competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. However, domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good, and the market is concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly in November with inventory accumulation pressure. However, floods in Southeast Asia have enhanced the expectation of seasonal palm oil production reduction, and Indonesia has introduced new regulations [2]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is tightening due to import restrictions and oil mill shutdowns, while demand is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in shock in the short term, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. 3.9 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the supply of Australian rapeseed and soybeans may increase, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. Recently, the futures price of rapeseed oil has slightly declined in shock, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - The rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations recently [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to be in a shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, and the export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 21 to December 1, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. - From November 21 to December 1, the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price was higher than the futures price, and the premium fluctuated slightly [15]. - From November 20 to December 1, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were mostly 0, with a significant decrease on November 21 [17]. - The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has dropped slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound oscillations [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly. The spot premium has shown slight fluctuations, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has also fluctuated slightly [17][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bullish, the price trend on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 18th to 26th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 18th to 26th, rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium showed slight fluctuations [15][17]. - From November 17th to 26th, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [16]. - There are no ship arrival schedules for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains at zero [24][26]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data analysis is provided other than the information that the main long positions have increased and funds have flowed out, which is considered bullish [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The market will maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short term, affected by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and closes higher, driven by soybean meal and technical shock consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and maintains range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2530, and the basis is 99, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Trading Data**: From November 17th to 25th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force has decreased, and funds have flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary - From November 17th to 25th, the prices of rapeseed meal futures (both the main 2601 and the far - month 2605) and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated. The futures price generally showed a downward trend, and the spot price also fluctuated within a certain range [15]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics - From November 14th to 25th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased significantly. From November 19th, the warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0 [17]. 3.8 Other Information - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the trend. The spot premium has fluctuated slightly. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has also fluctuated slightly. - There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is also at a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains at zero. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [18][20][23][25][27][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The rapeseed - related market shows a complex situation with both supply - and demand - side factors influencing prices. The market is affected by international factors such as the performance of US soybeans, Canadian rapeseed policies, and the situation of palm oil, as well as domestic factors like Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and domestic demand [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Internationally, US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Domestically, Sino - Canadian trade restricts imports, supply is tight, but demand is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price is under pressure and shows a volatile trend [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply due to the failure of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on tariffs and the shutdown of oil mills. It is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The price is affected by the decline of palm oil but may be stronger than palm oil in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9818 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2431 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 642.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 12 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5442 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 26 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 330 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 7808 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 9220 lots, down 13046 lots and 5347 lots respectively; the main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are - 21536 lots and 355847 lots respectively, with the latter down 4625 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is - 8, and that of rapeseed meal is 3968, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7878.8 yuan/ton, up 33.1% [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 4.02, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Imports**: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is - 11.53 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is - 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operation**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is - 0.25 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is - 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is - 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 22.66 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is - 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 tons, up 0.7 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is - 0.15 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Consumption**: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry for the month is - 171.7 billion yuan; the monthly output of feed is 5199 tons, up 690.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is - 67.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.82%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.62%, down 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 24th, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.10 Canadian dollars to 644.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 3.50 Canadian dollars to 657.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs have not made a breakthrough, limiting imports [2]. - The Canadian government's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in November, increasing inventory pressure on the international oil market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical shock consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the market. The contract will maintain range - bound in the short term due to soybean meal influence [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2420 and 2480. The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, with the price below the 20 - day moving average but trending upwards. The basis is 99, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. The inventory decreased by 2.78% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, also bullish. The main long positions decreased with capital outflow, but still considered bullish. The contract is expected to return to an oscillating pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues may reduce short - term exports. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing, and the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 13th to 21st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3061 to 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume from 7.47 to 40.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton, with zero trading volume. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - From November 13th to 21st, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2412 to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month 2605 contract from 2367 to 2429 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was between 2510 and 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 12th to 21st, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2745 to 0. There was no change from November 12th to 18th, a decrease of 745 on November 19th, no change on November 20th, and a decrease of 2000 on November 21st [17]. - The price of imported rapeseed is affected by tariffs, with no shipping schedule forecast for November. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume remains zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has slightly declined, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2400至2460区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差101，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season for rapeseed meal, low inventory levels support the market. Influenced by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations, the market will remain range - bound in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range oscillation. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, and the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term outlook is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports, affecting domestic supply. The initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and potential geopolitical risks support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The initial anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of 109, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards, showing a neutral trend. - **Trading Data**: From November 10th to 18th, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 17.99 - 31.41 tons, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also had minor fluctuations [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main players has increased, but the capital has flowed out, showing a bullish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is under less pressure as near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and coastal oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down. However, demand is weakening due to reduced aquaculture demand with temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybeans and soybean meal. The fall in US soybeans has dragged down domestic meal prices, and today rapeseed meal saw a decline with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the supply side, near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, oil mills have used up their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. But on the demand side, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have rebounded from low levels, with increased short - term volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal futures increased by 9880 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures decreased by 3.1 Canadian dollars/ton, and that of the active contract of domestic rapeseed futures increased by 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and that of the rapeseed meal main contract decreased by 39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 3228 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 47901 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 4311 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 23476 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 0, and that of rapeseed meal was 5323, unchanged from the previous day [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import cost price of rapeseed decreased by 26.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 4.1, an increase of 0.09 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 60 yuan/ton [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The predicted annual production of rapeseed globally was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 13.13 tons, the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2 tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 16 tons, a decrease of 5.57 tons [2]. - **Profits and Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.5 tons, the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0.5%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.52 tons, and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.3 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region decreased by 2.37 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.6 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.32 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region increased by 0.1 tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 decreased by 0.53 tons, and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 decreased by 0.19 tons [2]. **Industry News** - On November 14 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the weakness of Chicago bean futures after the USDA supply - demand report, but the weekly line increased. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 3.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 647.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the weekly increase was 1.2% [2]. - The USDA lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season from 53.5 bushels in September to 53.0 bushels, and the total production was expected to be 4.253 billion bushels, lower than the September forecast. However, the unexpected reduction in US soybean exports led to selling after the report [2]. - From August 1 to November 2, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Canada's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2].