专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 新华资产首席经济学家王德伦出席并发言。 从中长期资金入市角度，谈了几点建议。 第一，要打造更强大的中长期机构投资者。除完善其他机制外，首先要让机构变得更强，支持其发展， 尤其是从自身建设、资本金等内在根基方面给予支持。在实际投资过程中，金融机构受资本金大小制 约。一方面，我们希望并鼓励中长期资金入市；另一方面，要给予其更多发挥空间，因此应在金融机构 资本金方面给予政策支持和鼓励。 第二，关于投资范围。中长期资金入市是很好的提法，但就如同吃饭不能只吃主食，还要搭配蔬菜、肉 和水果一样，在中长期资金入市时，无论是监管层还是各方面，都希望多买股票权益类资产，但其实需 要有多元化的投资策略和投资品种。 第三，有进就有出，要做好退市工作。把好公司引进来，也要对不具备能力甚至有洗钱行为的公司做出 技术化安排，实现优胜劣汰。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点 ...

在1月11日举行的第30届中国资本市场论坛上，中国证监会副主席陈华平发言表示，将持续完善长钱长 投的制度环境，合力推动各类中长期资金进一步提高入市规模比例，优化合格境外投资者等制度安排， 让各类资金愿意来，留得住，发展得好。截至去年末，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约为23万 亿元，较年初增长36%；权益类基金规模由去年初的8.4万亿元增长到11万亿元左右。 ...

在1月11日举行的第30届中国资本市场论坛上，中国证监会副主席陈华平发言表示，将持续完善长钱 长投的制度环境，合力推动各类中长期资金进一步提高入市规模比例，优化合格境外投资者等制度安 排，让各类资金愿意来，留得住，发展得好。截至去年末，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约为 23万亿元，较年初增长36%；权益类基金规模由去年初的8.4万亿元增长到11万亿元左右。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Bank Financial Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the non-bank financial sector, particularly the insurance and brokerage industries, highlighting recent market trends and investment strategies. Key Points on Insurance Sector 1. **Market Performance and Expectations**: The A500 index has seen continuous capital inflow, especially around New Year, indicating positive market expectations for the insurance sector [1][3]. 2. **Insurance Sector Strength**: Since October 2025, the insurance sector has performed strongly due to several factors, including a reduction in preset interest rates, improvements in liabilities, and strong sales performance in early 2026 [1][4]. 3. **Investment Returns**: In Q3 2026, insurance companies reported stable investment returns, benefiting from increased allocations to high-dividend products, which contributed to overall profitability [7]. 4. **Future Outlook for 2027**: The insurance industry is expected to see synchronized expansion in both liabilities and assets, with a focus on dividend insurance products driving capital inflow and an increase in third-party asset management [8]. 5. **High Dividend Preference**: Insurance capital is increasingly favoring high-dividend and high-return assets, with approximately 20% of new funds allocated to stock investments [10]. 6. **A and H Share Valuation**: The valuation of A shares versus H shares is influencing investment decisions, with certain H shares being attractive due to their lower price relative to A shares [11]. 7. **Dividend Yields**: Current dividend yields for major insurance companies in the H share market are around 4% for China Ping An and 3.5% for China Pacific Insurance, making them appealing to investors [12]. 8. **Asset Allocation Trends**: Insurance companies are expected to increase their allocation to high-dividend assets in response to regulatory guidance on long-term capital market participation [14]. Key Points on Brokerage Sector 1. **Brokerage Sector Performance**: The brokerage sector has experienced sluggish growth due to regulatory pressures, limiting internal growth despite favorable market conditions [15]. 2. **M&A Importance**: Mergers and acquisitions are seen as crucial for driving performance in the brokerage sector, with a focus on high-quality development and enhancing competitiveness [16][17]. 3. **Investment Strategy for 2026**: The brokerage sector may see a structural rebound in 2026, particularly in the context of seasonal market movements and monetary policy easing [18]. Additional Insights - **ETF Launch**: A new ETF focusing on the non-bank sector, with a significant allocation to insurance stocks, has been introduced, reflecting a strategic investment approach in the current market environment [19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The call highlighted the rapid rotation in market sectors, with a need for investors to adjust their strategies based on evolving market conditions and performance metrics [3][18]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the non-bank financial sector.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that market risk appetite improved in December, and the spring market is expected to continue [1] Group 2 - Investment suggestions for January include focusing on sectors benefiting from the spread of AI technology and applications, such as optical modules, cloud computing infrastructure, robotics, consumer electronics, and intelligent driving [1] - Certain sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from the restructuring of global monetary order and supply-demand imbalances [1] - The cyclical market represented by real estate and general consumption remains tilted towards the left side, with attention on chemicals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery, white goods, and commercial vehicles [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is a prevailing trend, with a focus on high-dividend leading companies based on quality cash flow, volatility, and dividend certainty [1] - Improved risk appetite in the capital market is expected to boost the performance of the non-bank financial sector, with a focus on insurance and brokerage firms [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of facilitating long-term capital market entry, as highlighted by the recent regulatory focus on gathering industry feedback to enhance investment and financing coordination in the capital market [1][2][3] - Regulatory bodies have conducted surveys with wealth management companies to identify barriers to increasing A-share investments and to gather insights on policy optimization for the next five years [2][3] - The surveys reflect a keen interest in understanding the effectiveness of existing policies and the experiences of wealth management firms, particularly regarding the impact of previous guidelines on long-term capital market participation [3] Group 2 - Wealth management firms are exploring various methods to increase equity asset allocation, including a significant rise in index-based investment products, with 98 non-structured products containing "index" as of January 6, 2026, compared to only 11, 12, and 17 in previous years [4] - The new IPO underwriting regulations set to be implemented in 2025 are expected to provide substantial policy benefits for wealth management companies participating in new stock subscriptions, with recent participation in several A-share IPOs [4][5] - Despite the ongoing exploration of equity investments, the proportion of equity assets in wealth management remains low, with only 2.1% of total investment assets allocated to equity as of Q3 2025 [7] Group 3 - The total market size of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, with mixed products accounting for 0.83 trillion yuan (2.58%), and equity products only 0.07 trillion yuan (0.22%) [7] - The primary investment focus of wealth management products is still on fixed-income assets, with significant allocations to bonds, cash, and bank deposits, indicating a conservative investment approach [7] - Analysts believe that with regulatory support, wealth management firms are likely to further explore equity products and asset allocation, potentially evolving into long-term patient capital [8]

【导读】2025年A股新开户达到2743.69万户 中国基金报记者 孙越 1月6日，上交所最新披露，2025年12月A股新开户达260万户，较11月环比增长9%，比2024年同期的199万户大幅增长30.54%。 至此，2025年全年A股新开户总数为2743.69万户。相比2024年的2499.89万户，同比增长9.75%，成为自2022年以来A股年度新开户数据的最高纪录。 在整体开户量稳步攀升的同时，市场呈现出一个引人瞩目的结构性变化：机构开户量大幅跃升。 | 日期 | 总数 | A 股 | B 股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 | 177.37 | 157.00 | 0.04 | 20.33 | | 2025.02 | 313.77 | 283.59 | 0.04 | 30.14 | | 2025.03 | 348.53 | 306.55 | 0.05 | 41.93 | | 2025.04 | 213.32 | 192.44 | 0.04 | 20.84 | | 2025.05 | 172.77 | 155.56 | 0.04 | 17 ...

【导读】 2025 年 A 股新开户达到 2743.69 万户 中国基金报记者 孙越 1 月 6 日，上交所最新披露， 2025 年 12 月 A 股新开户达 260 万户，较 11 月环比增长 9% ，比 2024 年同期的 199 万户大幅增长 30.54% 。 至此， 2025 年全年 A 股新开户总数为 2743.69 万户。相比 2024 年的 2499.89 万户， 同比增长 9.75% ，成为自 2022 年以来 A 股年度新开户数据的最高纪录。 这一增长趋势在 2025 年得以延续，全年新开户 2744 万户，同比增长 9.75% ，并创下自 2022 年以来的年度新增开户数量新高。 回顾 2025 年 A 股新开户数据的月度变化，可以发现股市赚钱效应和政策支持是影响投资者 入市的两大主要因素。 1 月平稳开局，新开 157 万户； 2 月受春节后行情活跃影响，激增至 284 万户。 3 月再创 新高，突破 300 万户。 4 月受国际形势影响，开户数回落，而随后的 5 月因假期因素继续 下降。 在整体开户量稳步攀升的同时，市场呈现出一个引人瞩目的结构性变化：机构开户量大幅跃 升。 | 账户新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory authorities are actively seeking to facilitate the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the need for a coordinated capital market function [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions and Industry Feedback - Regulatory bodies have conducted surveys with wealth management companies to identify barriers to increasing bank wealth management investments in A-shares and to gather expectations for future policies [1][3]. - The focus of the surveys includes evaluating the effectiveness of existing policies and learning from mature overseas markets [2][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of wealth management products in the market is 32.13 trillion yuan, with mixed products accounting for only 2.58% and equity products at a mere 0.22% [3][4]. - The asset allocation of wealth management products is predominantly in fixed income, with equity assets only making up 2.1% of total investments [3][4]. Group 3: Challenges in Wealth Management - The limited investment in equity assets is attributed to constraints on the liability side of bank wealth management, low client risk appetite, and the need for improved investment research capabilities [4][7]. - The market is characterized by a "low volatility" orientation, which slows the pace of increasing equity asset allocations [4][7]. Group 4: Innovations in Investment Strategies - Despite the challenges, banks are exploring new avenues for equity asset allocation, including increased research on A-share listed companies and a significant rise in index-based investment products [4][5]. - As of January 6, 2026, there are 154 index-based wealth management products, with a notable increase in issuance over the past few years [4][5]. Group 5: Participation in IPOs - The new IPO underwriting regulations effective in 2025 provide substantial policy support for wealth management companies to participate in new stock subscriptions [5][6]. - Wealth management companies have been actively involved in A-share and Hong Kong stock IPOs, with several firms successfully participating in multiple new stock offerings [6][7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - With regulatory support, there is optimism that bank wealth management can further explore equity products and asset allocation, aiming to evolve into a more patient capital source for the medium to long term [7].