近期，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准恢复执行特朗普的关税政策，这一消息瞬间吸引全球目光，再次将特朗普 的关税政策推至风口浪尖。 回溯特朗普的关税政策，其范围之广、力度之大令人咋舌。当地时间2月1日，特朗普签署行政令，宣布对来 自加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收25%的关税，对进口自中国的商品加征10%的关税；10日，又宣布对所有进 口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税，后续还考虑对汽车、芯片和药品征收关税。这些举措涉及商品价值高达2 万多亿美元，远超2018年中美贸易摩擦期间。其所谓"对等关税"政策，更是企图以匹配美国和贸易伙伴进口 商品税率为借口，颠覆全球贸易现状。 特朗普（资料图） 特朗普的关税大棒挥舞之下，全球企业苦不堪言。美国本土的福特等汽车制造商，因关键汽车零部件加征 25%关税，面临额外成本和市场不稳定问题。GlobalData数据显示，汽车制造大国日本在2023年向美国出口了 148万辆汽车，汽车行业占其对美国出口总额近30%，美国此举令日本汽车行业遭受重创。不仅如此， AlixPartners预测，特朗普关税施行后，美国市场每年销售的1600万辆汽车中，近1/4将受到直接冲击，零部件 供应链也难以幸免，额外 ...

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：对全球贸易不会陷入最坏情况略感宽慰。 ...

Group 1 - Global market downturn triggered by geopolitical uncertainties, including US tariff policies and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.2% to 22,778 points and a trading volume of HKD 883.9 billion [1] - Analysts predict a potential second "slight" pullback in the market from late May to July, influenced by increased market supply from numerous financing projects in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the A-share market, which is currently closed, may impact the Hang Seng Index due to a lack of support from mainland funds, with expectations of a strong performance upon reopening [1] Group 2 - Increased IPO pressure in the Hong Kong market has led to greater market supply, with high-profile companies engaging in large-scale placements, resulting in valuation pressures [2] - Structural bubbles are forming in the new consumption sector, where companies are experiencing a divergence between high valuations and underwhelming performance, necessitating market correction [2] - Analysts foresee opportunities in undervalued sectors in the second half of the year, while previously heavily financed sectors may face challenges [2]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's recent statements regarding tariffs have caused significant volatility in the stock market, particularly affecting Apple and European markets [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Apple - Trump threatened a 25% tariff on iPhones not produced in the U.S., pressuring Apple to manufacture domestically [2][10]. - Apple's stock price has dropped 19% year-to-date, making it the worst performer among the seven major tech companies in the U.S. [11]. - The potential tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $900 million for Apple in Q3, with future costs possibly increasing [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced significant declines, with major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 dropping over 2% [2][3]. - U.S. stock futures also fell over 1%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices dropping more than 1% upon market opening [4][5]. - Major tech stocks, including Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon, saw declines of over 2% [6]. Group 3: Bond Market Response - In response to the market turmoil, funds have shifted into the bond market, leading to a decrease in yields for German, French, and Swiss 10-year government bonds [4]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - Trump's aggressive tariff stance poses a significant threat to global trade recovery, reminiscent of previous market downturns following tariff announcements [9]. - Analysts suggest that unless risks escalate significantly, the market may not experience another substantial decline, although the recent comments are seen as a step in the wrong direction [9].

Group 1 - Australia Trade and Tourism Minister Don Farrell rejects pressure from the Trump administration to align on trade issues against China, emphasizing that China is a larger buyer of Australian exports [1] - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, leading to a positive response from global markets and a recovery in Australia-China trade relations [3] - The Australian consumer confidence index rose by 2.2% in May, reflecting a recovery from the impacts of the global trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration [5] Group 2 - Australia is negotiating with the US to remove tariffs on Australian goods, but the country is not rushing the process due to its reliance on resource exports to China [6] - Ten Australian meat companies have been granted permission to export sheep and goat meat to China, marking a significant expansion in the market and providing a balance against US tariffs [8]

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【图说经济】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看 懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团队。 本期Headline 洛杉矶港口进口与预期同时回落 韩国 5 月前 10 日出口大幅下滑 中国出口仍然维持韧性 国内商品价格下行压力延续 服务业高频好转，有望带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳 美国港口进口与预期同时回落 5月4日 -5月10日，美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至16艘，4月均值为21.3艘；港口集装箱 进口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至32.1%，4月末同 比为56%。 此外，美国洛杉矶港执行董事塞洛卡表示洛杉矶港原本预计5月份将有80艘船只抵达，但其中 20%已被取消。截至目前，客户已经取消了6月份的13个航次。 洛杉矶港进口量下滑或主要反映中美直接贸易往来在持续快速降温。 据统计，中国货物占洛 杉矶港业务量的45%，涵盖家具、玩具及电子产品等。 | | | 03 节后第一周，中国离港船舶数量和载重量维持韧性。 5月4日-5月10日，中国20大港口离港船舶数量均值为199.9艘，上周均值为203.6艘，同 比 ...

欧盟贸易和经济安全事务专员塞夫科维奇：与美国商务部长卢特尼克达成协议，将加快谈判进程。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

WTO总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔表示，全球贸易仍处于"危机"之中。 ...

世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉5月13日在日本东京说，美国的关税措施对全球贸易构成挑战。 据彭博新闻社报道，伊维拉当天在东京与日本首相石破茂会面时说，当前贸易领域面临非常严峻的形 势，但同时也存在诸多机遇，应以此为契机应对挑战。 另据日本广播协会报道，伊维拉和石破茂一致认为，有必要共同努力应对世贸组织争端解决机制的缺陷 等问题，恢复世贸组织的向心力。（新华社） ...

美国财长贝森特：对于更无摩擦的全球贸易乐观以对。 ...