据央视新闻消息，美日达成贸易协议后，日本首相石破茂在首相官邸表示，将听取经济再生担当大臣赤 泽亮正的详细汇报，并视情况与美国总统特朗普进行沟通。石破茂强调，协议内容需充分审查，方能决 定其去留。此前，赤泽亮正通过顽强谈判使日本在关税问题上达成一致。尽管石破茂内阁因参议院选举 失利导致支持率下降，但他称将继续担任首相，以确保政治稳定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump stated that the U.S. has not yet reached a point regarding the Philippines and tariff issues [1] Group 1 - The current status of U.S.-Philippines relations concerning tariffs remains unresolved [1]

Group 1 - HSBC's report indicates that risk assets are expected to rise in the second quarter, driven by earnings season, while tariff issues may also become a favorable factor [1] - The market sentiment and positioning indicators from HSBC have issued sell signals, suggesting that optimistic sentiment has an "expiration date" [1][3] - HSBC is examining potential adverse scenarios to enhance bearish sentiment further [1] Group 2 - HSBC identifies two misconceptions regarding tariffs: investors view tariff deadlines as fixed, and the market may welcome potential delays [2] - The sensitivity of the market to tariff news has decreased, similar to the behavior observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that recent tariff rate reductions could boost confidence in risk assets [2] - Warning signals have emerged, with short-term sentiment and positioning indicators issuing significant sell signals, marking the most notable signal since mid-2023 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is committed to seeking common ground with the United States regarding tariff issues [1] Group 1 - Japan will continue discussions with the U.S. to find mutual agreement on tariff matters [1]

德国政府发言人：德国总理默茨在周末与法国总统马克龙就关税问题进行了会谈，相关议题也将于周三 的会议上予以讨论。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent defeat of Japan's ruling party in the House of Councillors election has led to a cautious but stable reaction in the yen exchange rate, with market participants remaining vigilant about potential future depreciation due to fiscal expansion and high tariffs from the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Election Impact on Yen - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito failed to secure a majority in the House of Councillors, which has raised concerns about the government's ability to pass legislation and budgets without relying on opposition parties [3][4] - Despite the ruling party's loss, the market reaction was relatively calm as the defeat was not as severe as anticipated, leading to some short-term buying of yen [3][4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has proposed expanding subsidies and temporarily reducing the food-related tax rate from 8% to 0%, which could lead to increased fiscal spending [3][4] - The likelihood of fiscal expansion is increasing, raising concerns about "malicious interest rate hikes" and potential long-term depreciation of the yen, with forecasts suggesting it could weaken to 150 yen per dollar [4][5] Group 3: Tariff Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Upcoming negotiations regarding a potential 25% tariff on Japanese imports are causing additional anxiety in the market, as Japan may struggle to secure favorable terms [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding the political landscape and the potential for a no-confidence motion in the minority government could exacerbate market tensions [5]

Market Performance - The São Paulo Stock Exchange index fell by 1.61%, closing at 133,000 points, after reaching an intraday historical high of 142,000 points on July 4 and a closing historical high of 141,000 points, indicating a sustained pullback [1] - The index has accumulated a decline of 2.06% for the week, with a consistent slight decrease from Monday to Thursday, forming a potential phase top, followed by an accelerated drop on Friday [1] Currency Movement - The Brazilian real depreciated by 0.61% against the US dollar, trading at 5.5796 reais, with a total weekly decline of 0.86% [1] Political Context - Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, stated to CNN Brasil that US President Trump will not reduce the threat level regarding tariffs on Brazil, and that Trump would not acknowledge the election results if Bolsonaro does not participate [1] - On Friday, Bolsonaro mentioned that his son may seek to acquire US citizenship [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro expresses a desire to contact the U.S. Embassy's chargé d'affaires to discuss tariff issues and indicates a wish to meet with former President Trump if he had his passport [1] Group 1 - Bolsonaro's intention to discuss tariffs suggests potential shifts in trade relations between Brazil and the U.S. [1] - The mention of a meeting with Trump indicates ongoing political connections and potential influence on U.S.-Brazil relations [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper prices increased, and the weekly K - line closed positive. The 2508 contract reduced positions rapidly. The spot copper price rose to 78,660 yuan, with the Shanghai premium expanding to 175 yuan and the Guangdong premium shrinking to 45 yuan. Technically, after last week's price adjustment, LME copper traded between the MA60 and MA40 moving averages. Traders are advised to hold short positions or try to sell call options with an exercise price of 80,000 yuan and buy put options with an exercise price of 76,000 yuan on the 2508 contract [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated, with the East China spot premium at 110 yuan. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively compared to Monday. Accumulation of inventories is still difficult. After the pre - demand, the decline in demand is not more than seasonal. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation increased by 100 yuan to 19,500 yuan. The demand is weak, but the supply of scrap aluminum in the market is tight. The alumina spot price increase trend has eased but is still in a premium state. The domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high and is in an oversupply state [3] Zinc - Black prices continued to rebound, concerns about US tariffs eased, and the macro - sentiment improved. The import window remained closed, and the strong external market drove the domestic market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and it is difficult for traders to sell. The supply is expected to increase, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. Shanghai zinc is still considered to face pressure in the rebound, waiting for short - selling opportunities around 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Lead - Both domestic and foreign markets are accumulating inventories. The export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariff issues again, and short - sellers increased positions. The weighted position of Shanghai lead increased to 104,000 lots, and the settled funds reached 1.569 billion yuan. Recycled lead is reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downstream's willingness to buy at low prices has improved. The cost - end support is still strong. Whether Shanghai lead can stop falling at 16,800 yuan/ton needs to be observed [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and spot transactions are weak. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. The inventories of nickel iron, pure nickel, and stainless steel have all increased, but the overall inventory level is still high. Technically, Shanghai nickel still has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and closed positive. The main contract changed quickly this month, and the 2509 contract has become the main position - holding contract. The spot tin price increased by 3,600 yuan to 265,500 yuan. Technically, it is recommended to use the MA60 moving average as the boundary between strength and weakness. Continue to pay attention to the change of the low inventory of 2,000 tons overseas. Hold previous high - position short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded and reached a high level. The market trading was active. A series of shutdown news maintained market enthusiasm, but there was obvious selling pressure around 70,000 yuan. The total market inventory is high, and traders buy at low prices. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 705 US dollars, with a large rebound from the low level. There is a strong hedging demand for lithium carbonate futures prices in the range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan. Short - sellers should use position dispersion to defend [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures prices slightly declined, while the spot price of Xinjiang 421 silicon continued to rise to 8,850 yuan/ton. The downstream polysilicon is expected to increase demand due to the resumption of production of leading enterprises, and the operating rate of silicone monomer plants has continued to rise. On the supply side, large factories have not resumed production after previous shutdowns, and the weekly output in Xinjiang has continued to decline slightly. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices slightly declined. According to SMM, the expected increase in silicon wafer quotes and cost calculation result in a comprehensive price of 43,870 yuan/ton. The "weak reality" is mainly concentrated in the inventory level. With the resumption of production of some bases of leading enterprises, there may be a slight increase in inventory. Policy expectations are still the main trading logic, and the overall trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that German Chancellor Merz anticipates reaching an asymmetrical agreement regarding tariff issues [1]