Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in innovative products, with clear domestic demand and significant potential for international expansion [4][14][25] - Investment opportunities are concentrated in innovative drugs and their supply chains, with a notable performance from CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals [9][15][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation as the primary solution to industry challenges, driven by stable demand and supportive policies [26][32][41] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical sector has faced revenue declines, with a 0.9% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and net profit down by 2.2% [15][16] - The innovative drug sector has outperformed, with CRO/CMO and chemical pharmaceuticals showing net profit growth of 31.0% and 16.6% respectively [17][18] - The overall market is characterized by low fund holdings and historical valuation bottoms, indicating high investment value [20][25] Demand and Payment Dynamics - The demand for healthcare services is steadily increasing, with a projected 5% growth in total medical visits and hospital admissions in 2024 [26][28] - The aging population is expected to drive long-term demand, with 220 million people aged 65 and above by 2050 [28][30] - The medical insurance fund's income growth has outpaced expenditure growth, leading to a significant increase in fund reserves [32][36] Financing and Market Trends - The IPO market for healthcare has rebounded, with 28 IPOs in the first three quarters of 2025, a 100% increase from the previous year [42][43] - License-out transactions have surged, with transaction numbers increasing by 41% and total amounts reaching $92 billion, indicating a robust market for innovative drug licensing [48][50] - The number of IND applications and new clinical trials for innovative drugs has been steadily increasing, with a notable rise in NDA approvals [53][57] Technological Advancements - The report highlights the emergence of new technologies such as ADC and small nucleic acids, with domestic companies leading in these areas [60] - The focus on dual antibodies and GLP-1 drugs is expected to drive significant growth, with multiple development directions emerging [9][60] - The report notes that domestic companies are increasingly recognized for their innovative capabilities, particularly in the ADC space [60]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the pharmaceutical industry in China is experiencing a reversal in 2025, driven by innovative drugs, with significant benefits observed in the CXO and upstream supply chain sectors, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market where innovative drugs have seen a rise of over 80% year-to-date [1][4] - The report emphasizes that the core catalyst for innovative drugs comes from policy support and the realization of business development (BD) opportunities abroad, with notable transactions exceeding 1 billion USD, validating the international competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [1][2] - A significant reform in the payment sector is underway, with the introduction of a dual-track system for medical insurance, allowing for the inclusion of high-value innovative drugs in commercial insurance, addressing the gap in coverage for expensive treatments [1][2] Group 2 - The report indicates a rapid growth trend in the number of license-out transactions by Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with total upfront payments reaching 6.298 billion USD, a 53% year-on-year increase, and total transaction amounts reaching 118.862 billion USD, a 125% increase [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests a shift from "BD-driven" to "data-driven" investment in innovative drugs, emphasizing the importance of clinical data validation and commercial capabilities for revenue growth [2] - Recommended stocks for investment include Heng Rui Medicine, Kelun-Biotech, and Teva Biopharmaceuticals, among others, while companies like Kangfang Biotech and Innovent Biologics are suggested for further attention [2][3] Group 3 - The overall profitability of the pharmaceutical sector remains stable, with a gradual improvement in the profitability of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, despite a slight decline in revenue growth [11][15] - The report notes a significant divergence within the industry, with the medical services sector performing well, while the profits of the biopharmaceutical sector have seen a substantial decline [28][29] - The report highlights that the medical insurance fund's income and expenditure growth rates are stabilizing, indicating a long-term trend towards cost control in medical insurance, which is essential for the sustainable development of the innovative drug industry [31][36]

12月9日晚间，复星医药宣布，控股子公司药友制药、复星医药产业与Pfizer Inc.（辉瑞）共同签订《许可协议》，由药友制药就口服小分子胰高血糖素样 肽-1受体（GLP-1R）激动剂（包括YP05002）及含有该活性成分的产品授予辉瑞于全球范围独家开发、使用、生产及商业化的权利，许可领域包括人类、 动物所有适应症的治疗、诊断及预防。 根据协议条款，药友制药将完成YP05002于澳大利亚的I期临床试验，并授予辉瑞在全球范围内进一步开发、生产和商业化的独家许可。药友制药将获得 1.5亿美元的首付款，并有资格获得与特定开发、注册和商业里程碑相关的最高达19.35亿美元的里程碑付款，以及产品获批销售后的分层特许权使用费。 这也意味着，若研发进展顺利，公司最高将获得近150亿元人民币的许可金额（含后续销售里程碑付款）。 中国创新药出海又迎大消息！ 复星医药全球化运营能力进一步加强 公告显示，本次许可的小分子胰高血糖素样肽-1受体（GLP-1R）激动剂由复星医药子公司药友制药自主研发并拥有自主知识产权，拟用于代谢领域相关 疾病的治疗，潜在适应症包括但不限于长期体重管理、2型糖尿病、代谢功能障碍相关脂肪性肝炎（MASH） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in their stock prices over the next 12 months [2][29]. Core Insights - The release of the 2025 version of the basic medical insurance directory continues to support innovation, with 114 new drugs added, including 50 first-class innovative drugs, while 29 drugs were removed due to lack of supply or better alternatives [3]. - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has seen a cumulative increase of 60.9% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 29.2% [1]. - Despite a recent 9% pullback in the healthcare sector, undervalued stocks present attractive investment opportunities [1][3]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue, with a focus on the progress of these products in international markets [1]. - The demand for innovative drug research and development in China is showing signs of recovery, supported by a resurgence in capital market financing and an increase in the scale of overseas transactions [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Research - The report highlights that the adjustment of the medical insurance directory emphasizes support for "true innovation" and "differentiated innovation" [3]. - The first version of the commercial insurance directory includes 19 innovative drugs, which may pave the way for the expansion of commercial medical insurance in China [3]. - The report recommends a more cautious investment approach, focusing on undervalued stocks in the sector [3]. Company Ratings - Recommended companies include: - 三生制药 (Sangfor) with a target price of 37.58 and a potential upside of 29% [2]. - 固生堂 (Gushengtang) with a target price of 44.95 and a potential upside of 58% [2]. - 药明合联 (WuXi AppTec) with a target price of 74.00 and a potential upside of 10% [2]. - 巨子生物 (Giant Biotech) with a target price of 53.89 and a potential upside of 48% [2]. - 信达生物 (Innovent Biologics) with a target price of 110.62 and a potential upside of 29% [2]. - 中国生物制药 (China National Pharmaceutical Group) with a target price of 9.40 and a potential upside of 39% [2].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·医药生物 医药生物行业跟踪周报 看好创新药出海，重点推荐恒瑞医药、百济 神州等 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 《海外小核酸进入收获期，关注国内 悦康、前沿、福元等》 2025-11-30 《药店现金流稳健、估值低，重点推 荐益丰药房、大参林等》 2025-11-23 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券分析师 朱国广 执业证书：S0600520070004 zhugg@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024/12/9 2025/4/8 2025/8/6 2025/12/4 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 东吴证券研究所 1 / 32 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周、年初至今 A 股医药指数涨幅分别为-0.74%、15.86%，相对沪深 300 的超额收益分别为-2.02%、-0.65%；本周、年初至今恒生生物科技 指数涨跌幅分别为-0.71%、80.40%，相对于恒生科技指数跑赢-1.87%、 52.43%；本周医药商业（+5.1 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the Chinese innovative drug industry has significantly improved its systemic capabilities, leading to explosive growth in overseas business, with a transaction scale reaching approximately $100 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, including upfront payments of $5 billion [3][4] - The market is being activated by a series of major transactions, with companies like Kangfang Biotech, Hengrui Medicine, and Kelun Pharmaceutical making significant moves, resulting in a frenzied atmosphere in the Hong Kong IPO market [3][4] Innovative Drug Sector - China's innovative drug industry has a competitive edge over the U.S. in terms of R&D efficiency, costs, and clinical research, supported by a large clinical patient population and unique regulatory advantages [4] - The article draws parallels between the innovative drug sector and the semiconductor industry, suggesting that as traditional innovation approaches its limits, new technologies like dual antibodies and ADCs will become the core of innovation, leveraging China's industrial advantages [5] - Key factors for investment in innovative drugs include innovation, speed, and positioning, with companies needing to develop unique drug candidates or dominate specific niches to achieve profitability [6] Challenges in the Innovative Drug Market - Despite having the capability to develop original innovative drugs, the Chinese market is limited, leading companies to rely on overseas expansion, with only 3% of the global innovative drug market size compared to the U.S. [6][7] - Chinese innovative drug companies face challenges in late-stage clinical research capabilities and global commercialization, which are critical for competing in high-value markets like the U.S. [7][8] Biomanufacturing Sector - The biomanufacturing sector faces complexities, particularly in product selection, where over 90% of companies fail due to poor choices [9] - Successful biomanufacturing requires a focus on cost control, engineering capabilities, and commercial value, with a strong emphasis on collaboration among scientists, industry experts, and project managers [10][11] - The market size is crucial for biomanufacturing companies, as only those targeting trillion-level markets can potentially develop into leading enterprises [10] Investment Considerations - The article suggests that investment in innovative drugs and biomanufacturing should align with national strategies and market demands, emphasizing the importance of selecting companies that can create real value [11][12] - Investors should focus on identifying entrepreneurs with ambitious goals and the potential to lead in their fields, as well as being open to disruptive business models [13][14] - The investment landscape is characterized by a need for precision in selecting companies with core competitive advantages, as the barriers to entry are low but the potential for high returns is significant [14]

中国早期研发如今已具备全球竞争力。但在后期研发阶段，包括海外临床试验、监管申报和商业化等方 面，中国创新药企仍有巨大的发展空间。 12月4日，国内创新药企科伦博泰（6990.HK）与美国生物医药公司Crescent Biopharma达成一项最新的 授权交易，该交易涵盖8000万美元首付款以及高达12.5亿美元的里程碑付款。12月5日收盘，科伦博泰 股价上涨约2.5%。 这是中国创新药企在年底前达成的又一项总价值超过20亿美元的对外授权协议，涉及的药物为科伦博泰 针对实体瘤的在研项目，预计该药物的临床试验将于2026年第一季度开始。 在招募患者速度方面，麦肯锡报告称，中国患者招募参与临床试验所需的时间约为全球平均水平的一 半，每位患者的成本也比美国和欧洲低约50%。这种效率的提升不仅得益于中国庞大且老龄化的人口， 也得益于其完善的医疗体系，以及患者可以通过社交媒体等多种渠道了解正在进行的试验并直接参与试 验。 "中国早期研发如今已具备全球竞争力。"瑞银医药分析师在一份报告中写道，"但在后期研发阶段，包 括海外临床试验、监管申报和商业化等方面，中国创新药企仍有巨大的发展空间。" 全球化布局还需要很多年 正是由于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceutical has officially commenced, marking a significant milestone in China's innovative drug industry with a potential deal value of up to $11.4 billion, setting a record for Chinese innovative drugs going global [1][3]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Innovent Biologics will receive an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, which includes a $100 million strategic equity investment and up to $10.2 billion in milestone payments [1]. - The collaboration focuses on the global development and commercialization of next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) therapies, specifically IBI363 and IBI343, along with early-stage project IBI3001 [1][7]. - IBI363 is recognized as one of the fastest-developing PD-1/IL-2 products globally, with ongoing clinical trials, including a pivotal Phase III study for squamous non-small cell lung cancer [6][10]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Performance - Innovent Biologics has become one of the largest biopharmaceutical companies in China since its establishment in 2011, with a diverse product portfolio covering oncology, autoimmune diseases, metabolism, and ophthalmology [10]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.953 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a 50.6% year-on-year increase, and achieved profitability with a profit of 834 million yuan [11]. - As of the end of July, Innovent had over 14 billion yuan in cash reserves, positioning itself well for future growth and development [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant divergence in the performance of various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry in 2025, with the CXO and innovative drug-related sectors showing substantial growth, while the medical service sector is expected to gradually recover in 2026 due to a low base effect from 2025 [2][6][58] - The overall performance of the A-share market was positive in 2025, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector ranking 10th with a growth of 34.95%, while the CXO sector led with a growth of 58.71% [6][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of "product-driven" companies, which are expected to enter a profitability cycle as they recover from the impacts of centralized procurement and increase their R&D investments [2][29] Group 2 - The innovative drug sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with business development (BD) opportunities abroad being a key focus, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs [30][34] - The medical device sector is also expected to follow a similar recovery path as innovative drugs, with increasing R&D investments and a growing number of approved innovative medical devices [43][45] - The medical service sector, despite facing short-term pressures, is anticipated to gradually recover in 2026, supported by an aging population and increasing demand for healthcare services [58] Group 3 - The report suggests specific companies to watch in various sectors, including medical devices (e.g., Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical), innovative drugs (e.g., Innovent Biologics, Kintor Pharmaceutical), and medical services (e.g., Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical) [2][29] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall valuation remains at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.82 times as of October 31, 2025, indicating potential for upward adjustment [19][20] - The report highlights the importance of key product advancements and performance realization in the innovative drug sector, particularly for products like PD-1/VEGF, which have shown promising clinical data and significant market interest [39][40]

新华社记者彭韵佳 日前，中国药品价格登记系统正式上线，国家医保局同步发布相关公告，9家国内外头部药企完成首批 药品价格登记。 这一独立于省级医药采购平台的全新价格系统，将给企业、患者等带来哪些影响？记者采访了相关专家 和业内人士。 新华社北京12月4日电 题：药品价格登记系统上线，将带来哪些影响？ 提供国家参考定价助力解决"出海"定价难题 "中国药品价格登记系统是应对医药创新发展新形势的全新探索，是企业构建全球化、多元化价格体系 的展示平台。"国家医保局副局长施子海说。 放眼全球，一些国家和地区在药品准入时，往往要求其提供原研国的价格作为国际参考定价。然而以 前，我国药品缺乏权威认证的价格信息，导致海外市场参考中国市场的价格时，难以找到可靠的定价依 据。 2025年以来，三生制药与辉瑞公司签订双抗创新药海外授权协议、恒瑞医药与葛兰素史克达成创新药海 外授权协议、信达生物与武田制药就双抗等创新药达成合作……我国创新药出海迎来爆发式增长。 在此背景下，创新药的国际化需要构建全球化的价格体系，需要权威的价格认证体系。 "我们的一款创新药想进入巴西市场，对方要求提供中国市场价格证明，但当时药品已纳入医保，医保 支付价 ...