国债期货日报 2025/11/20 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘冲高回落，午后有所回升，但TL回升乏力。T、TF收涨，TL收跌，TS接近平盘。资金面恢复宽 松，DR001回落至1.36%附近。公开市场逆回购3000亿，净回笼100亿。 重要资讯： 1.一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变。 2.消息称住建部等多部门正在衡量一系列选项，包括首次在全国范围内对新增个人住房贷款提供贴息。其他正 在酝酿的措施还包括提高房贷借款人的个人所得税专项扣除，以及进一步降低住房交易契税等。 行情研判： 今日 A股高开低走，债市几乎未受影响。日内影响债市的主要是有关房地产政策的传言，导致早盘债市回 落，超长债受影响更为明显。三季度以来房地产市场再度转弱，我们认为传言并非空穴来风，相信各项政策 正在酝酿之中，未来将择机推出。对市场的影响主要在于短期情绪，即便政策未来推出也难以扭转房地产市 场的基本面，对债市的利空有限，利率中长期仍需保持低位。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 国债期货日度数据 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The current upward and downward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating insufficient domestic demand, which provides strong support for treasury bond futures in the long - term. On the other hand, there is no strong need for further policy tightening this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures. Due to tax period factors, capital liquidity fluctuations have intensified, and market interest rates have rebounded in the short - term, with the central bank mainly conducting net injections in the open market. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; View: oscillatory consolidation; Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. Upward and downward kinetic energy is limited. Economic data weakness supports long - term easing and treasury bond futures, but short - term policy rate cut is unlikely, and capital liquidity fluctuations and central bank net injections affect the market, resulting in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decline in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly in the previous two days this week due to factors like loose liquidity, reduced policy increments, stock market corrections, and geopolitical risk aversion. However, the upward and downward momentum is limited. Economic data shows insufficient domestic demand, so a long - term loose monetary environment is needed, but there is little need for policy intensification this year and a low possibility of short - term policy interest rate cuts [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, 2025, the yields of most active treasury bonds declined. Treasury bond futures strengthened collectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.52%. Domestically, economic indicators in October showed a mixed performance, with some weakening and some improving. Overseas, the US government averted a shutdown, but the employment market showed downward risks, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December dropped significantly. The economy in Q4 is expected to continue a weak recovery. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy, and the space for further monetary easing this year is limited. Currently in a policy vacuum, interest rates may fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.01%, and 0.06% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 1244, 3133, 2388, and 1158 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2603, T12 - TL12, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 spreads decreased by 0.01, 0.06, 0.01, and 0.01 respectively. T2512 - 2603, TF2512 - 2603 spreads increased by 0.00 and 0.01 respectively [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 10869, 8352, 2955, and 6927 respectively. T top 20 net short positions increased by 1874, TF top 20 net short positions decreased by 1152, TS top 20 net short positions decreased by 34, and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 683 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD Bonds - The net prices of multiple CTD bonds increased, such as 220017.IB up 0.0041, 220019.IB up 0.0043, etc. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of 1 - year bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year and 7 - year and 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.25bp, 0.55bp, and 0.25bp respectively, and 5 - year bonds increased by 0.20bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, and Shibor 7 - day increased by 0.66bp, 1.70bp, 3.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively. Silver - pledged 14 - day decreased by 3.00bp, and Shibor 14 - day remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 4075 billion, the maturity scale was 4038 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.9 Industry News - China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. From January to October, national fiscal revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and fiscal expenditure increased by 2%. In October, the bank settlement - sale surplus was 177 billion US dollars, and cross - border capital inflows increased [2] 3.10 Key Events to Watch - On November 20 at 3:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. On November 20, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non - farm payroll report [3]

【11月18日国债期货主力合约表现不一】11月18日，30年期主力合约上涨0.01%，10年期主力合约涨幅 为0.00%，5年期主力合约下跌0.00%，2年期主力合约上涨0.00%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

每经AI快讯，11月18日，基准10年期日本国债期货早盘持平。 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 17 日 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 稳而不发：透视三季度货币政策执行报告 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli026575@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | （正文） 1. 四季度宏观数据低迷延续 10 月各项宏观数据公布，整体数据趋势呈现除通胀外全线增速回落的趋势。CPI 微幅转正，PPI 跌幅 收窄。其余数据增速均回落。全年保"5"的目标下，政策预期 mao dian 普遍在明年两会 权益市场在美国风险偏好传导以及内需政策预期博弈下回调震荡。债市短端较为稳固，超长端随风险 偏好波动较大。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 央行三季度货币政策执行报告的核心词是"结构性"与"延续"。 ◼ 大水漫灌式降息降准难出现，数量、价格、结构多元工具精细化调控，维稳货币边际宽松。 ◼ 删除"防范资金空 ...

| | 11/20 3:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/20 待定 美国劳工部统计局：11月20日发布9月非农就业报告 | 国债期货日报 2025/11/17 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 108.485 0.09% T主力成交量 62429 | -1180↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 105.905 0.05% TF主力成交量 48783 | -3751↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 32335 | -3243↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 116.450 0.33% TL主力成交量 88270 | 7491↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 0.23 +0.00↑ T12-TL12价差 -7.97 | -0.22↓ | | | T2512-2603价差 0.25 +0.02↑ TF12-T12价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be continuously monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After a slight decline in the morning session, they fluctuated narrowly. They once declined in the afternoon and recovered at the end. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.03%, the 10 - year T2512 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2512 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 212.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 141.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 71.1 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.48% the previous day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 0.32 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.33 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.14 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.15% [1] - **Housing Market**: In October, the second - hand housing sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In second - tier cities, they decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. In third - tier cities, they decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points [1] - **Investment and Consumption Data**: From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year (market expectation: - 0.7%, January - September: - 0.5%). In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 5.5%, September: 6.5%), and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.7%, September: 3.0%). The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same month last year [1][2] - **Policy Information**: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting was held to study the in - depth implementation of the "two major" construction, emphasizing strategic, forward - looking, and overall requirements, promoting the development of new - quality productivity, and guiding more private capital participation [2] 3.3 Market Logic - China's October fixed - asset investment and export growth rates are lower than market expectations, social consumption growth slightly exceeds expectations, industrial added - value growth is lower than expected, and the real estate market continues to decline. The new social financing and credit scale in October are also lower than expected. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report points out to optimize intermediate variables and pay attention to interest rate parity relationships. The Wande All - A index fell 1.27% on Friday, and treasury bond futures fluctuated horizontally and basically closed flat. Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate in the short - term, and the impact of stock indexes should be monitored [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, it is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the macro - economic data remains resilient, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, so the upward momentum of bond futures weakens. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures continued to have a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the short term, the macro - economic data is resilient, reducing the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut and weakening the upward momentum of bond futures. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report shows a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].