异动点评：白银持续创新高海外市场情绪高涨 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 行情导读：隔夜，美联储降息叠加启动 RMP 债券购买的偏鸽派行动对市场影响持续发酵叠加 COMEX 白 银交割月行情的演绎，海外市场情绪高涨的带动内外盘白银价格继续摸高，12 月 12 日早盘，沪金主 力合约 AG2602 涨幅超 2%，价格持续上涨带来波动率的走强，白银 VIX 波动率指数维持在 40%的高位。 数据来源：文华财经 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） 今年 COMEX 白银市场出现大规模的实物交割需求越超往年的情况，合约在交割月的首周后仍有较 多未了结的头寸，而当前伦敦白银拆借和租赁利率再度抬头升至 7%以上为 10 月末以来的高位，空头 获得实物的成本增加，进一步表明履约的困难。这也成为多头持续看好银价上涨的理由，由于市场规 模相对更小，在大国博弈和逆全球化背景下，随着包括白银等金属矿产被美国政府发列入《2025 版关 键矿产清单》，未来可能有更多实物库存政府或机构锁定，当白银进入交割月容易发生供需错配。20 ...

2025年末，普京踏上了筹备四年的印度之行，这场被外界称为"翻身之战"的外交活动，刚开局就弥漫着火药味。 特朗普几乎同步抛出重磅诱饵："把印度关税从50%降至15%-16%，给你盟友待遇"，一边是急需外汇的俄罗斯，一边是手握关税优惠的美国，印度这个"香 饽饽"站在了天平中央。 可俄罗斯对印度的依赖，早已远超外界想象，这场博弈的结局，不仅关乎俄印关系，更可能改写全球能源与军事贸易格局。普京的访印之行，真能抓住这根 救命稻草吗？ 俄罗斯当前最致命的危机，是"缺钱"，国际货币基金组织数据显示，俄财政赤字率已升至3.8%，超出3%的安全线1.2个百分点。 全球央行都在增持黄金避险时，俄央行上半年却减持120吨黄金，连外汇储备都成了填补缺口的"应急资金"，财政造血能力近乎枯竭。 仅原油采购就花了550亿美元，再加上天然气和军工产品，印度贡献了俄能源出口的重要外汇，对缺钱的俄罗斯来说，印度绝非普通贸易伙伴，而是必须牢 牢抓住的"提款机"。 俄罗斯的对印依赖，恰好给了美国"趁虚而入"的机会，特朗普的拉拢策略精准击中印度与俄罗斯的软肋。 关税优惠是最诱人的筹码，15%-16%的关税待遇，是美国给日本、欧盟、韩国的"盟友级福利 ...

Group 1 - The current era of "great power competition" shapes the core logic of asset allocation, with the U.S. relying on debt expansion to drive market prosperity, while facing significant repayment pressures due to high federal debt levels exceeding 120% of GDP [1][3] - The U.S. economy is increasingly dependent on technology, particularly AI, which has contributed over 40% to actual GDP growth, indicating a potential "rigid bubble" in the current AI technology wave [1][7] - The U.S. stock market's long-term bull run is primarily driven by the AI wave, supported by government fiscal and monetary expansion, which in turn sustains consumer spending that constitutes over 70% of U.S. GDP [1][5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. faces structural economic challenges, including a hollowed-out manufacturing sector, with manufacturing jobs dropping from over 30% in the 1940s to just 8% today, indicating a lack of sufficient talent reserves [4][5] - The AI technology wave is seen as a potential "rigid bubble," with structural valuation risks and financial vulnerabilities emerging, similar to past tech bubbles [8][9] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from a debt-driven growth model to a high-quality development model, with significant opportunities arising as the most painful phase of the old energy transition appears to be over [10][12] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market is entering a historical opportunity phase, focusing on high-quality development and asset revitalization, which will be crucial for achieving the goal of becoming a modern socialist country by the mid-21st century [10][14] - The central government's balance sheet is relatively healthy, with a national debt of approximately 34.5 trillion RMB, only about 26% of GDP, compared to the U.S. [12] - The shift from land finance to equity finance is becoming a consensus among local governments, with a focus on revitalizing assets through the stock market [16] Group 4 - The capital market is expected to play a pivotal role in China's economic transformation, similar to the role of real estate in the past two decades, with a focus on asset revitalization and cash flow improvement [14][22] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be a significant driver for the Chinese economy, emphasizing the modernization of the industrial system and the promotion of emerging industries [26][28] - The Chinese stock market is projected to attract more domestic and foreign capital, with a notable shift in wealth allocation towards equities, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors [24][30]

文 | 钱钱 编辑 | 阿景 12月8日，华盛顿的会议室里挺热闹，美澳第40届"2+2"磋商会议开得正欢。 两边一拍即合，要搞个"可靠、多元"的矿产供应链。 澳大利亚这下可算找着了新定位。 要知道，这国家在全球关键矿产供应链里的分量最近看涨。 锆矿产量全球第一，中国近四成的锆都得从它那儿进口。 稀土储量也不小，现在想借着美澳合作，把矿产从普通商品变成"战略筹码"。 美方来的是国务卿鲁比奥和国防部长赫格塞斯，澳方则是副总理兼国防部长马尔斯、外交部长黄英贤。 这场会选在美日"2+2"还没开的时候办，明眼人都看得出，有事要聊。 聊的啥呢？不是航母也不是军演，而是石头关键矿产。 鲁比奥在会上扯着嗓子说，这玩意儿对国防和科技产业太重要了，赫格塞斯也跟着帮腔，说军事运作离 了它不行。 以前卖矿就是卖资源，赚的是辛苦钱。 现在跟着美国混，把矿产和战略安全绑在一起，身价立马不一样。 美澳握手背后，矿产成了新"战略货币" 其实这事儿早有铺垫。 今年10月，特朗普和阿尔巴尼斯就签了个关键矿产框架协议。 黄英贤最近在公开场合说得很明白，这合作跟AUKUS一样，都是美澳战略协作的核心。 说白了，就是想把矿产当"硬通货"，在大国博弈里 ...

近期，兴业证券全球首席策略师张忆东在一次路演中分享了对未来资本市场的展望。 投资作业本课代表整理了要点如下： 1、 未来较长时期，甚至可能十年或更久，我们做大类资产配置最重要的一个时代背景，就是大国博弈的时代。 但 "牛市风雨无阻"， 很明显我们对中期还是非常乐观，但是 短期需要耐心，耐心的方向依然是做多。 2、美国现在基本上靠两端：一是服务消费，二是真正的科技先进制造。 科技已成为美国经济长期竞争力的"诺亚方舟"。 从这个逻辑来说，我们认为不要低估这一次AI科技浪潮，我的判断是，它很可能是一个" 刚性泡沫 "。而这一次 AI到现在为止，我认为它还属于一个大周期的初 期。 3、 我们认为中国的牛市，为什么未来我们看一个长牛，恰恰对应的是中国经济增长模式的变化——高质量发展。而且高质量发展最核心的就是盘活资产端。 4、在这种逻辑下，资本市场就像过去二十多年的房地产一样，它是枢纽， 它盘活了金融，盘活了产业。 一方面，这个资本市场一定是一个长牛，而且是一个震荡向上，不是疯牛、快牛，不是短期快速的快涨快跌，绝对不是2014、15年那种行情。 另一方面，从大类资产配置的角度来说，中国社会财富的再配置，这个力量足以让我 ...

他指出，当前大类资产配置的核心时代背景是"大国博弈"， 来源：市场资讯 文章转载自2025年12月3日六里投资报发布的文章《张忆东今天前瞻2026：中国牛市风雨无阻，美股AI 浪潮，很可能是一个刚性泡沫》。 12月3日，兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东在智通财经年会上，以"牛市风雨无阻，耐心做多"为题 发表了主题演讲。 美国当前依靠债务扩张驱动市场繁荣，联邦政府债台高筑，杠杆率超过120%，每年还本付息压力巨 大。 政策上，对内大放水买选票，对外通过关税试图开源，方向其实都是宽松， 而且，降息的诉求非常强大，预计明年美元继续走弱，联储继续息。 另一方面，科技成为美国维持经济长期竞争力的诺亚方舟，AI相关投资对美国实际GDP贡献已超过 40%； 从这个逻辑来说，不要低估这一次AI科技，很可能是一个刚性泡沫。 中国则正迎来历史机遇， 中央政府资产负债表健康，国债余额34.5万亿人民币，占GDP仅26%，远低于美国的120%，具备较强政 策调控空间。 而房地产拖累最严重的阶段可能即将过去，其对GDP贡献已从近30%降至13%左右。 未来中国将更加注重通过"股权财政"与资本市场，盘活资产端，推动经济转型。 中央汇金持 ...

回顾过去一年中美博弈情况，王文表示，中美博弈进入漫长的"持久战"和"耐力战"，同时中美博弈加速 了全球产业链和价值链的深刻重构。 中经记者 慈玉鹏 北京报道 图为中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文 12月9日，由中国经营报社主办的"2025中国企业竞争力年会"在京拉开帷幕。中国人民大学重阳金融研 究院院长、全球领导力学院院长王文在会上发布"'十五五'前瞻：大国博弈、全球产业链变迁与发展机 遇"的主题演讲。 王文指出，目前大国博弈正在深刻重塑全球格局。对于企业而言，短期策略应聚焦风险防御与灵活应 对，中长期战略则着眼于自主创新与全球融合。对于个人而言，王文建议应走出去融入全球价值网络关 键节点；提升个人技能，增强职场的竞争力；同时，注重投资多元化，降低单一市场波动可能带来的风 险。 全球产业链重构下的中国担当 值得注意的是，"十五五"规划建议中针对未来产业的布局和规划，将对全球经济格局产生深刻影响。对 此，王文表示：一是推动供应链多极化，中国的发展为世界提供了除传统西方中心之外的另一个关键技 术、产品和资本来源地；二是加速技术民主化与竞争，使更多国家能以更低成本获得先进技术（如新能 源），但 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly in the context of the energy revolution and geopolitical dynamics affecting investment strategies for 2026 [1][6][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment Themes for 2026**: - The main investment themes are the energy revolution and geopolitical competition, with a focus on energy metals like nickel, cobalt, lithium, copper, aluminum, and natural uranium, as well as precious metals like gold and silver [1][6]. 2. **Price Projections**: - Lithium carbonate prices are projected to reach 150,000 CNY/ton, potentially doubling the valuations of related stocks [1]. - Gold profits are expected to surge as gold prices exceed $3,000/oz, with net profits per ton of gold anticipated to reach 400-500 million CNY in 2026 [1][15]. - The copper market is expected to face supply constraints, leading to strong price increase expectations [1][20]. - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain high capacity utilization and low inventory, resulting in increased profitability per ton of electrolytic aluminum [1][22]. 3. **Strategic Metals**: - Strategic metals such as natural uranium, rare earth magnets, tungsten, tin, and antimony are linked to new production capabilities and are expected to benefit from valuation logic related to strategic metals [1][8]. - The investment outlook for these metals is cautious, with a need to monitor for "black swan" events that could create investment opportunities [1][8]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The super commodity cycle that began in 2020 is not yet over, with key factors influencing its end being U.S. credit recovery, supply chain reconstruction, and strategic stockpiling progress [3]. - The supply of copper is expected to remain tight due to minimal growth in major mines and increasing operational challenges [19][20]. 5. **Sector Performance**: - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, has seen significant price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand from downstream applications [10][11]. - The aluminum sector is entering a strong demand release phase, with low inventory levels and high production capacity utilization [22]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Factors**: - The geopolitical landscape is influencing the supply chain and investment strategies, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and regulatory environments affecting strategic metals [23]. 2. **Future Projections**: - The natural uranium market is expected to see steady demand growth driven by nuclear power investments in China and the U.S., with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [27][28][29]. - The tungsten market is anticipated to remain tight due to regulatory pressures and low inventory levels, with significant implications for its pricing and availability [23][24][26]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to maintain positions in electrolytic aluminum and energy metals while beginning to position for copper and gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 [9]. - Specific companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as undervalued investment opportunities in the cobalt sector [11][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the non-ferrous metals industry and its investment outlook for 2026.

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has become a critical battleground in international relations, highlighted by the recent dispute between the Netherlands and China over ASML Semiconductor, showcasing the intersection of commercial issues and national interests [1][3]. Group 1: Netherlands' Intervention - The Dutch government intervened in the operations of ASML Semiconductor, citing "national security" under the 1952 Goods Availability Act, which led to a significant disruption in the global automotive supply chain, affecting major manufacturers like BMW and Volkswagen [1][3]. - The intervention resulted in production line adjustments for several automotive manufacturers, with potential daily losses exceeding 100 million euros [1]. Group 2: China's Response - In retaliation, China suspended chip exports from ASML's factories in China, causing a ripple effect throughout the semiconductor industry, emphasizing China's crucial role in the global tech supply chain [3][5]. - The Chinese government criticized the unilateral actions of the Netherlands, indicating that such moves could lead to chaos in the global supply chain [5]. Group 3: Domestic Reactions in the Netherlands - The intervention sparked controversy within the Netherlands, with Economic Affairs Minister Karremans admitting he underestimated China's strong response, leading to significant political pressure and criticism from various lawmakers [5]. - The term "passing the buck" became prevalent in Dutch government discussions, as Karremans attempted to shift responsibility for the decision to higher officials, reflecting the internal political turmoil [5]. Group 4: Future Implications - The Netherlands will need to navigate its relationship with China carefully to avoid repeating past mistakes, while China should enhance communication with other countries to foster mutual interests [7]. - The incident underscores the complex interplay of economics and politics in today's international landscape, highlighting the necessity for cooperation and interdependence among nations, especially for smaller countries like the Netherlands [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - The adjustment of the China-Japan route impacts airlines and ticket prices, with the route accounting for 3% of the total market share. The removal of flights has led to a shift in capacity to domestic flights, causing ticket prices to stabilize or slightly decline from previous growth of 2-3% [2] - Airlines have extended the free ticket refund period for the China-Japan route until March 31, 2026, resulting in short-term disruptions but overall limited impact due to the small number of flights removed [2] - The recommendation for airline stocks includes China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China, followed by Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2] Retail and Duty-Free Market - The Shanghai Airport duty-free store bidding process has sparked discussions, with potential new operators being introduced as existing shareholders oppose the bid. This could lead to increased revenue for Shanghai Airport [4] - The bidding process may benefit Shanghai Airport regardless of the outcome, as the expected revenue from the bidding exceeds investment returns [4] Shipping and Bulk Freight - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a two-year high of 2,854 points, driven by the upcoming production of the West Manganese Mine and concentrated shipments from Australian mines [5] - The outlook for the bulk shipping market remains positive, with recommendations for stocks such as Haitong Development, Pacific Shipping, and China Merchants Energy [5] Express Delivery Industry - Jitu's volume growth in Southeast Asia reached 78% during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with new market growth at 83%, indicating strong performance [6] - The express delivery sector is experiencing a shift, with leading companies increasing market share while lower-tier companies see declines. Zhongtong has returned to double-digit growth in October and November, making it an attractive investment opportunity [7] Commodity Market Insights Metal Market - The commodity cycle since 2020 is not yet halfway through, with expectations for a bull market in 2026 driven by a weakening dollar and supply chain disruptions [8] - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on energy metals, nickel, cobalt, gold, copper, aluminum, and strategic metals, influenced by energy revolutions and geopolitical tensions [11] - Specific insights include: - Nickel and cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to quota systems and unexpected demand for energy storage [8] - Copper's supply issues are critical, with both financial and commodity attributes driving its value [8] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of a three-year range due to low inventory and increased demand from industrial and energy sectors [8] Coal Market - The coal market is currently under pressure, with prices for Shanxi coal dropping by 27 yuan, and overall coal inventory rising but still below last year's levels [13][14] - Electricity consumption has decreased year-on-year, but there is a seasonal uptick in demand [15] - The national coal market conference indicated a balanced supply-demand outlook for 2026, with a focus on long-term contracts and import controls to stabilize prices [16] Future Projections - The overall sentiment for the metal sector in 2026 is optimistic, emphasizing the importance of energy revolutions and geopolitical factors for long-term investment opportunities [9]