Report Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no new fundamental drivers, consider buying on dips [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and the market is undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans [2][9]. - **Soybean**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase [2][9]. - **Corn**: The market is expected to move sideways [2][12]. - **Sugar**: The market is waiting for news guidance [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The market is expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend [2][20]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading competition [2][25]. - **Hogs**: The market has seen a price increase on reduced volume, and the sustainability needs to be confirmed [2][27]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) and 9,482 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.11% and 1.63% increase respectively; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton (day session) and 8,396 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.10% and 0.07% change respectively [4]. - **News**: From January to July 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.364 billion tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [5]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE豆一2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,980 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.81% and + 0.48% increase respectively; DCE豆粕2601 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,066 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.23% and + 0.20% increase respectively [9]. - **News**: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in July 2025 to reach 207.1 million bushels, a record high for the same period [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 closed at 2,255 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,280 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.99% and 1.11% increase respectively; C2511 closed at 2,193 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,207 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.27% and 0.64% increase respectively [13]. - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, and Guangdong Shekou prices also showed little change [14]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.34 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,609 yuan/ton [16]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average [16]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,025 yuan/ton (day session) and 14,085 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 1.51% and 0.43% change respectively; CY2511 closed at 20,020 yuan/ton (day session) and 20,065 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.60% and 0.22% change respectively [20]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was generally weak, and the cotton yarn market also showed a slowdown in sales [21]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, with a - 0.48% change; Egg2601 closed at 3,320 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.00% change [25]. - **No significant news provided specifically for eggs in the report.** Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price was 15,540 yuan/ton; futures prices for different contracts also showed various changes [27]. - **News**: At the end of August and beginning of September, large - scale hog farms significantly reduced supply, leading to a price rebound. However, supply pressure remains in September and October [29]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 closed at 8,022 yuan/ton, with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7,830 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase [31]. - **News**: New peanuts are expected to be listed around mid - to - late September, and the current spot market shows stable to slightly stronger prices in some areas [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Supply and Demand Remain Loose, Short - term Weak and Fluctuating; Propylene: Supply and Demand Tighten, Spot Price at High" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of LPG remain loose, and it will show a short - term weak and fluctuating trend; the supply and demand of propylene tighten, and the spot price is at a high level [2][3] 3. Specific Content Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Data of LPG and Propylene - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,809 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.60%, and the night - session price was 3,763 with a decline of 1.21%; PG2510 closed at 4,409 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session price was 4,361 with a decline of 1.09%; PL2601 closed at 6,450 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session price was 6,437 with a decline of 0.20%; PL2602 closed at 6,485 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%, and there was no night - session trading [3] - **Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 5,453 yesterday (a decrease of 2131 compared with the previous day), and the position was 11,887 (a decrease of 3639 compared with the previous day); for PG2510, the trading volume was 68,724 yesterday (a decrease of 9094 compared with the previous day), and the position was 87,589 (a decrease of 1203 compared with the previous day); for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,066 yesterday (an increase of 263 compared with the previous day), and the position was 4,897 (an increase of 77 compared with the previous day); for PL2602, the trading volume was 4 yesterday (a decrease of 17 compared with the previous day), and the position was 853 (an increase of 2 compared with the previous day) [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 191 yesterday (compared with 192 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 221 yesterday (compared with 232 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 125 yesterday (compared with 116 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 100 yesterday (compared with 56 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 25 yesterday (compared with - 19 the previous day) [3] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0% (compared with 75.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 63.5% (unchanged from last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.0% (compared with 47.3% last week) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8] 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the September CP paper - goods price of propane was 516 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 492 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The October CP paper - goods price of propane was 529 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [9] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. having maintenance from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [10] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have maintenance plans, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant having a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400; Fuhai Chuang having a full - plant maintenance from the end of June to the end of August 2025, with a normal production volume of 1000 and a loss volume of 1000 [10]

Group 1: Report's Overall View - The investment outlook for the methanol industry is short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main contract (01 contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,413 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 373,944 lots, and the open interest was 710,322 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,466 tons, down 100 tons; the turnover was 902.159 million yuan, down 211.856 million yuan [2] - The basis was - 123, up 4; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 123, down 7 [2] Spot Market - The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2167.67, down 6.18. The Taicang spot price was 2272, down 25, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2080, down 2.5. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 13 cities saw price drops ranging from 2.5 to 90 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic methanol market in most regions showed a weak performance. Only in some parts of Shanxi, due to supply contraction, the auction was concluded at a premium. The sharp decline in futures prices suppressed market sentiment, traditional downstream buyers pressured prices, and traders were actively reporting volumes [3] - Due to a large - scale event in early September and downstream rigid demand, the impact of freight rate increases on the upstream and downstream should be watched out for. Also, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of some methanol plants in the production areas and the impact of low - priced goods from Xinjiang. The port market remained weak, and the basis continued to weaken [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook (the range of trend intensity is integers in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [6]

Group 1: Report Core Views - The import cost of LPG provides support, but there is no significant improvement in supply and demand [1] - Propylene is in a tight supply - demand balance, and its price is consolidating strongly [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2509 closed at 3,878 yesterday with a -0.56% daily increase, and 3,889 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - PG2510 closed at 4,387 yesterday with a -0.14% daily increase, and 4,428 in the night session with a 0.93% increase [1] - PL2601 closed at 6,470 yesterday with a -0.03% daily increase, and 6,510 in the night session with a 0.62% increase [1] - PL2602 closed at 6,522 yesterday with a 0.00% daily increase, and 6,543 in the night session with a 0.32% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2509 had a trading volume of 12,533 yesterday, a decrease of 6081 from the previous day, and a position of 29,779, a decrease of 5452 from the previous day [1] - PG2510 had a trading volume of 66,214 yesterday, a decrease of 32854 from the previous day, and a position of 101,565, a decrease of 3370 from the previous day [1] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,399 yesterday, a decrease of 1125 from the previous day, and a position of 4,614, an increase of 28 from the previous day [1] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 0 yesterday, a decrease of 23 from the previous day, and a position of 849, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 143 yesterday, compared to 137 the previous day [1] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 193 yesterday, compared to 187 the previous day [1] - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 30 yesterday, compared to -2 the previous day [1] - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was -45 yesterday, compared to -47 the previous day [1] - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -45 yesterday, compared to -97 the previous day [1] Industry Chain Key Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, compared to 76.3% last week [1] - The MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, compared to 63.4% [1] - The alkylation operating rate was 47.3%, compared to 49.0% [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0; the trend intensity of propylene is 0 [6] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Cargo Prices - On August 22, 2025, the September CP paper cargo price for propane was 518 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 495 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [7] - The October CP paper cargo price for propane was 534 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans with different start and end times [8] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple production enterprises such as Shengli Oilfield, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have LPG factory device maintenance plans with different start and end times and loss volumes [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: With the macro risk preference not significantly corrected, there is still support [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][7] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to cold market sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][13] - Log: Repeated oscillation [2][16] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various black - series futures products on August 21, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and log, providing corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities based on fundamental data and macro - industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: No detailed data presented in the text [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data** - Rebar (RB2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,132 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.38%); trading volume was 1,317,374 lots, and open interest was 1,523,392 lots, a decrease of 85,302 lots [7] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): Yesterday's closing price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (- 0.61%); trading volume was 619,254 lots, and open interest was 1,123,892 lots, a decrease of 61,086 lots [7] - **Macro and Industry News** - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83% [8] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [8] - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [8] - In early August 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a 2.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [9] - On August 14, steel output: rebar - 0.73 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.7 million tons; total inventory: rebar + 30.51 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 0.84 million tons; apparent demand: rebar - 20.85 million tons, hot - rolled coil + 8.54 million tons [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data** - Ferrosilicon 2511: Closing price was 5,622 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; trading volume was 267,911 lots, and open interest was 228,094 lots [10] - Silicomanganese 2511: Closing price was 5,818 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; trading volume was 56,642 lots, and open interest was 117,713 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News** - On August 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton (- 50), and the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton (- 50) [11] - A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicomanganese at 6,017 yuan/ton on the 19th, a 217 - yuan increase from July, with a procurement volume of 11,600 tons [11] - In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [12] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a relatively weak downward trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data** - Coking coal (JM2601): Closing price was 1,162.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (- 2.7%); trading volume was 1,974,478 lots, and open interest was 698,714 lots, a decrease of 15,151 lots [13] - Coke (J2601): Closing price was 1,678 yuan/ton, down 30.5 yuan/ton (- 1.8%); trading volume was 30,721 lots, and open interest was 39,060 lots, an increase of 644 lots [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff - imposed list [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [15] Log - **Fundamental Data**: The report provides detailed data on the closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of log futures contracts (such as 2509, 2511, 2601), as well as the price information of log spot markets in Shandong and Jiangsu [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the commodity residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for corn is "Weak operation" [3] Core Viewpoint - Corn is expected to run weakly, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish outlook [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Northeast acquisition average price and North China acquisition average price are not available; Jinzhou closing price is 2,310 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou price is 2,400 yuan/ton; Shandong corn starch price is 2,840 yuan/ton, all with no price change [1] - **Futures Prices**: C2509 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.10%, and 2,236 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.27%; C2511 closed at 2,170 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.60%, and 2,165 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.23% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: C2509 trading volume was 124,972 lots yesterday, a decrease of 54,590 lots, and open interest was 257,404 lots, a decrease of 59,163 lots; C2511 trading volume was 353,719 lots yesterday, a decrease of 110,167 lots, and open interest was 925,944 lots, an increase of 29,682 lots; The entire corn market trading volume was 614,735 lots yesterday, a decrease of 203,317 lots, and open interest was 1,766,482 lots, a decrease of 4,839 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The entire corn market had 113,481 warehouse receipts yesterday, a decrease of 16,946 lots [1] - **Price Spreads**: The main 11 - basis was 140 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 11 inter - period spread was 72 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - **Northern Corn Port Prices**: Northern corn port prices (listed) are 2,250 - 2,260 yuan/ton (14.5% moisture), down 20 yuan/ton from yesterday; container port prices are 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton [2] - **Guangdong Shekou Prices**: Guangdong Shekou bulk carrier prices are 2,370 - 2,390 yuan/ton, and container quotes are 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - **Northeast Enterprise Prices**: Northeast enterprise corn prices are weakly operating. Heilongjiang deep - processing dry grain acquisition prices are 2,200 - 2,270 yuan/ton; Jilin deep - processing corn mainstream acquisition prices are 2,200 - 2,260 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia deep - processing corn mainstream acquisition prices are 2,280 - 2,360 yuan/ton [2] - **North China Prices**: North China corn prices rebounded slightly. Shandong deep - processing prices are 2,450 - 2,560 yuan/ton, ordinary livestock and poultry feed corn prices are 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, pig feed corn prices are 2,470 - 2,500 yuan/ton; Henan prices are 2,450 - 2,550 yuan/ton; Hebei prices are 2,440 - 2,500 yuan/ton [2] - **Imported Grains**: Argentine sorghum (bulk) in Guangdong for September - October shipment is quoted at 2,120 yuan/ton; Australian sorghum for September shipment is quoted at 2,430 yuan/ton (limited quantity); Imported barley for October - November shipment is pre - sold at 2,100 - 2,150 yuan/ton; Imported barley for December - January shipment is pre - sold at 2,040 - 2,090 yuan/ton; Feed wheat for September delivery is priced at 2,510 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the ferrosilicon sector is weak, with a tendency for a weak and volatile trend. The spot price of silicomanganese is firm, showing a wide - range oscillation [1]. - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of the 2509 and 2510 contracts are 5710 and 5688 respectively, down 44 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 35,596 and 50,479, and the open interests are 53,054 and 63,542. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of the 2509 and 2510 contracts are 6026 and 6030 respectively, with the 2509 contract unchanged and the 2510 contract down 2 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 112,392 and 27,269, and the open interests are 142,698 and 51,731 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 from the previous trading day. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.2 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 09 futures) is - 260 yuan/ton, up 44; the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 206 yuan/ton, up 20. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon (2509 - 2601) is - 156 yuan/ton, up 2; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese (2509 - 2601) is - 94 yuan/ton, down 6. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 316 yuan/ton, up 44; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 254 yuan/ton, up 52 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On August 18, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is: 5350 - 5450 in Shaanxi, 5450 - 5550 in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 in Qinghai, 5450 - 5550 in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in different regions is: 5900 - 5950 in Shaanxi, 5800 - 5850 in Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2]. - As of August 16, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port is 367.64 million tons, up 5.25 million tons from the previous period; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 75.61 million tons, down 6.9 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory in Fangchenggang is 5 million tons, unchanged. The total manganese ore inventory is 448.25 million tons, down 1.65 million tons [2]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors are both "weak and fluctuating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy sectors is weak, and the markets are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing prices of SiFe2509 and SiFe2510 are 5,754 and 5,732 respectively, up 10 and 8 from the previous trading day; the closing prices of MnSi2509 and MnSi2510 are 6,026 and 6,032 respectively, down 24 and 22 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests are also provided [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ferroalloy FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.2 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.1; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton, up 30 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 304 yuan/ton, down 10; the spot - futures price difference of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, up 24. Other price differences such as near - far month and cross - variety are also presented [1] Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 15th, the prices of 72 and 75 silicon ferroalloy in different regions and the prices of 6517 silicon manganese in the north and south are reported. The FOB prices of silicon ferroalloy are also given. Multiple steel groups' silicon manganese tender prices and quantities in August are detailed, showing price increases compared to July [2][3] - **Production and Inventory News**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; the daily average crude steel output in July was 2.569 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. As of August 16th, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.4825 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Support remains as the macro risk appetite has not significantly declined [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Weak oscillation due to weak sector sentiment [2][10] - Coke: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Coking coal: Bullish oscillation [2][15] - Logs: Repeated oscillation [2][18] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analysis for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, based on their fundamentals and macro - industry news. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Relevant data is tracked from Mysteel, Dongcai Choice, and the research institute [4] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [4] - **Trend strength**: 1, indicating a relatively positive trend [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, RB2510's yesterday's closing price was 3,188 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); HC2510's was 3,439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.20%) [6] - **Macro - industry news**: In early August 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 4.7%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 4.1%. Their steel inventory increased by 2.0% compared to the previous ten - day period. On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends [6][8] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and various spreads. For example, the closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5,754 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [10] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, China's crude steel output decreased by 4.0% year - on - year. As of August 16, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 1.65 million tons compared to the previous period [10][14] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and spreads. For example, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,230 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.3%) [15] - **Macro - industry news**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [16] - **Trend strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Tracked data includes futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot - futures spreads, and various spreads of different log products. For example, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 815, with a daily increase of 0.7% [19] - **Macro - industry news**: In July 2025, M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 balance increased by 5.6% year - on - year [21] - **Trend strength**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a reasonable short - term valuation and will operate in a volatile manner [1]. - The supply - demand of propylene is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,861 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.08%, and 3,872 in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.28%. PG2510 closed at 4,332 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56%, and 4,331 in the night session with a night - session decrease of 0.02%. PL2601 closed at 6,492 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.06%, and 6,475 in the night session with a night - session decrease of 0.26%. PL2602 closed at 6,525 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and remained at 6,525 in the night session [1]. - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2509, the trading volume yesterday was 75,971, an increase of 10,341 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 73,799, a decrease of 7,159. For PG2510, the trading volume was 47,247, an increase of 7,426, and the open interest was 97,481, a decrease of 213. For PL2601, the trading volume was 789, a decrease of 128, and the open interest was 4,132, a decrease of 79. For PL2602, the trading volume was 7, a decrease of 30, and the open interest was 859, a decrease of 1 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 519 yesterday, compared to 522 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 609 yesterday, compared to 602 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 67, - 67, and - 117 respectively yesterday, compared to - 13, - 63, and - 113 the previous day [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 76.3%, up from 73.8% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 63.4%, down from 66.6%. The alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, down from 50.0% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 14, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 521 US dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 491 US dollars/ton, also a 2 - dollar/ton increase. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 534 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 504 US dollars/ton, also unchanged [6]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times determined and some to be determined [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic LPG factories in Shandong, Northeast, North China, East China, South China, and other regions have maintenance plans, including full - plant maintenance, alkylation unit maintenance, and catalytic device maintenance, with different start and end times and durations [7].