投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月09日16时33分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收跌0.92%，沪银主力收跌0.68%，铂金主力收跌1.30%，钯金主力收涨跌0.47%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨近 90%。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列 为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车 ...

1. 【我国完成首次全尺寸高压纯氢管道泄漏喷射火试验】12月7日，记者从国家管网集团获悉，国内首次 全尺寸高压纯氢管道泄漏喷射火系列试验在新疆哈密成功实施，试验的完成不仅填补了我国在该领域的 技术空白，更为氢能产业的安全发展打下了关键基础。这次试验是在位于新疆哈密的国家管网集团管道 断裂控制试验场进行的。为了最大限度还原真实场景，试验团队依托先进的多介质管道试验测试平台， 专门预制了一条储氢能力达12000立方米的氢气主管道。整个试验重点围绕"多工况下持续泄漏与喷射火 监测"展开，就是要模拟氢气管道在实际运行中可能出现的各种泄漏情况。据了解，本次试验成果将为纯 氢管道安全间距的确定提供科学依据，助力我国输氢管道安全标准体系建设，为氢能产业规模化安全输 送提供数据支撑。（央视新闻） 2.【 世界首次3.5万吨级重载群组列车开行试验取得成功 】12月8日消息，世界首次3.5万吨级重载群组列 车开行试验在内蒙古包神铁路取得成功。这是全球首次实现多列货运列车不靠机械挂钩、仅靠无线信号 就实现协同行驶。这次试验的核心难点，就是让7列各5000吨的货运列车不使用传统的机械挂钩进行连 接，只依靠中国自主研发的智 能系统，通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment and operational capabilities of the Pengzhou Green Hydrogen Center, which aims to fill the gap in the verification of core components for hydrogen production through water electrolysis, enhancing the reliability and performance validation in the hydrogen energy industry [2][4][12]. Group 1: Testing Capabilities and Infrastructure - The Pengzhou Green Hydrogen Center has initiated CNAS laboratory certification to create an independent and authoritative testing platform for core components, supporting the hydrogen industry with reliable verification capabilities [4][15]. - The center is equipped with multiple industrial-grade test rigs, with each unit capable of producing over 50 Nm³/h of hydrogen and supporting continuous operation tests exceeding 6000 hours [5][7]. - The center has completed over 14,000 hours of operational testing across various configurations and materials, establishing a comprehensive data system to support long-term operation under high current density conditions [7][9]. Group 2: Advanced Testing Processes - The center has developed a compatibility testing process for high-frequency start-stop scenarios, successfully completing over 3000 start-stop cycle tests, demonstrating stable and controllable performance during these operations [9][11]. - It can assess the electrolysis efficiency and gas evolution under extreme conditions, with tests showing a direct current consumption of approximately 4.4 kWh/Nm³ H₂ at a current density of over 10,000 A/m² [9][11]. - The center has implemented a multi-dimensional evaluation model to characterize the performance of electrolysis cells under various operational conditions, including energy consumption and gas uniformity [9][12]. Group 3: Service Offerings and Industry Impact - The center offers an "Industrial Incubation Testing Service Package," which includes short-term functional tests and long-term durability tests, aimed at facilitating the transition of research outcomes to industrial applications [13][15]. - It actively participates in the formulation of industry standards and the "Leader Action Plan" evaluation system, providing authoritative assessments based on national standards to enhance product performance evaluation [15]. - The center plans to expand its services to include "health check" testing for the entire hydrogen energy industry chain, aiming to provide comprehensive verification and support for technological innovation and high-quality development in the sector [15][16].

宏观热点 中央政治局会议研究明年经济工作 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工 作条例》。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经 济治理效能。 此外会议还提到要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持改革 攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合 和区域联动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守 牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 外交部：经贸合作应继续成为中美关系的"压舱石"和"推进器" 厦门"十五五"规划建议发布 《中共厦门市委关于制定厦门市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布。其中提到，探索 建设具有自由港特征的经济特区，深入实施自由贸易试验区提升战略，深化自由贸易试验区与相关功能 区域联动发展，在探索与国际接轨的相关制度安排上先行先试。 我国船企签订国内单次合作签约最高金额订单 ...

国内新闻 新闻聚焦 ◐ 工信部发布14个行业数字化转型"场景导航图"。 据新华社1 2月8日报道，在20 25年两化融合暨数字化转型大会上，工信部发 布《场景化、图谱化推进重点行业数字化转型的参考指引（20 25版）》，覆盖钢铁、石化、工程机械、新能源汽车、机器人、医 疗装备、家电、制糖、白酒、美妆日化、锂电池、印制板、智能移动终端、民爆等14个行业，旨在帮助企业破解"不会转、转不 对"的难题，推动制造业数字化转型从"零散探索"迈向"系统推进"。 ◐ 水资源费改税成效显著。 据央视新闻1 2月8日报道，从国家税务总局获悉，自2024年1 2月1日水资源税改革试点在全国范围全 面实施以来，新扩围的21个省份地下水和特种取用水量明显下降。其中，水资源税申报户数达到9.4万户，同比增长26.9%；水 资源税收入1 89 . 6亿元，同比增长18.5%。全国有369户企业达到国家用水定额先进值标准，符合享受水资源税优惠政策条件，共 减征税款4 39 5万元。 ◐ 2026年云南电网西电东送计划电量1533亿千瓦时。 12月4日，云南省能源局发布《关于印发2 026年云南电网优先发电计划安 排的通知》指出，在"十五五" ...

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2025年12月08日16时14分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.15%，沪银主力收涨2.06%，铂金主力收涨0.66%，钯金主力收涨涨1.07%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至 80%以上。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业 被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。⑤预 ...

我国氢能产业正从试点探索进入有序破局和规模化应用新阶段。 7日晚间，武汉市发改委披露了作为国家能源领域氢能区域试点的发展目标：到2028年6月，试点区域氢能总产值力争突破500亿元，建设加氢站30座以 上，推广氢能汽车2600辆以上，突破自主关键技术15项以上，"制储输用"成本较2025年降低30%，年减排总量达50万吨。 近日，国家能源局发布公告披露了能源领域氢能试点（第一批）名单，包括41个项目试点和9个区域试点。其中，"湖北武汉都市圈氢能区域试点"成为中部 地区唯一入选区域。武汉市发改委表示，此次获批标志着中部地区氢能产业正式纳入国家能源战略布局，是武汉都市圈促进氢能产业高质量发展，落 实"强核、壮圈、带群"部署、促进长江中游城市群协同发展的重要契机。 武汉都市圈500亿元氢能目标 氢能是一种来源丰富、绿色低碳、应用广泛的清洁能源。国家能源局称，试点旨在创新氢能管理模式、探索多元化发展路径，形成可复制推广经验，推动 氢能"制储输用"全链条发展。 国家发展和改革委员会原副主任、中国国际经济交流中心特邀专家张晓强在10月22日召开的2025年中国氢能产业大会上表示，到2030年，我国绿氢产量有 可能达到30 ...

今天（12月7日），记者从国家管网集团获悉，国内首次全尺寸高压纯氢管道泄漏喷射火系列试验在新 疆哈密成功实施，试验的完成不仅填补了我国在该领域的技术空白，更为氢能产业的安全发展打下了关 键基础。 这次试验是在位于新疆哈密的国家管网集团管道断裂控制试验场进行的。为了最大限度还原真实场景， 试验团队依托先进的多介质管道试验测试平台，专门预制了一条储氢能力达12000立方米的氢气主管 道。整个试验重点围绕"多工况下持续泄漏与喷射火监测"展开，就是要模拟氢气管道在实际运行中可能 出现的各种泄漏情况。 据了解，本次试验成果将为纯氢管道安全间距的确定提供科学依据，助力我国输氢管道安全标准体系建 设，为氢能产业规模化安全输送提供数据支撑。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Hydrogen energy is recognized as a clean and efficient secondary energy source, playing a crucial role in national energy security, achieving carbon neutrality goals, and promoting the dual replacement of fossil fuels and raw materials [1] Group 1: Industry Development - Yulin is actively cultivating the hydrogen energy industry, accelerating the construction of key hydrogen projects, and establishing a comprehensive "production-storage-transportation-refueling-usage" industrial chain [1] - The first fully automated production line for solid oxide fuel cell (SOC) stacks in China has been established, capable of completing the main processes of stack production automatically [1][2] - The solid oxide electrolysis water hydrogen production system features a fully solid-state structure, ensuring system stability and efficiency, with energy consumption significantly lower than other hydrogen production methods [2] Group 2: Project Implementation - The Yuheng Industrial Park's zero-carbon hydrogen demonstration project is under construction, with a main building area of 15,000 square meters already topped out [3] - The first phase of the project aims to produce 3,000 tons of green hydrogen annually, generating an output value of 75 million yuan and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 60,000 tons per year [3] - The second phase is planned to start construction in 2026, targeting an annual production of 100,000 tons of green hydrogen, with an estimated output value of 2.5 billion yuan and a reduction of about 2 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [3] Group 3: Strategic Goals - Yulin aims to establish itself as the "Hydrogen Energy Capital of the West," leveraging green hydrogen to replace traditional energy sources and promote the upgrade and green transformation of the traditional energy and chemical industries [3][4] - The development strategy emphasizes technological innovation to enhance the energy and chemical industry chain, optimize traditional industries, and create a modern industrial system characterized by clean, low-carbon, and integrated development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese hydrogen energy industry is rapidly developing, with significant government support and a clear trajectory towards commercialization and large-scale application in the coming years [1][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Development - China's hydrogen energy production and consumption scale is expected to exceed 36.5 million tons in 2024, ranking first globally [2]. - The annual production capacity of green hydrogen in China has surpassed 220,000 tons, accounting for over 50% of the global total [2]. - The number of hydrogen refueling stations has exceeded 540, representing 40% of the global total [2]. - By 2030, China's green hydrogen production could reach over 3 million tons annually, forming a market worth over 1 trillion yuan [2]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Support - The national strategy for hydrogen energy is being elevated, with a comprehensive policy framework being established [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasize the importance of hydrogen energy, indicating a shift from pilot projects to industrialization [4][5]. - Local governments have actively responded with over 560 hydrogen energy-specific policies to promote industry development [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The hydrogen industry is currently experiencing a phase of adjustment, facing challenges in transitioning from technology validation to commercial implementation [7]. - Cost and scale remain the primary constraints, with green hydrogen prices still 1.5 to 6 times higher than gray hydrogen [8]. - The market demand for hydrogen energy is not yet fully synchronized with commercial models, particularly in transportation where electric vehicles dominate [8]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The application of green hydrogen as a basis for green fuels is expected to be a key growth area in the next five years [10]. - Green hydrogen-based energy sources, such as green ammonia and green methanol, are emerging as viable alternatives, expanding the potential application scenarios [11]. - The integration of AI technology in the hydrogen sector is anticipated to enhance efficiency and drive innovation, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 12% in AI applications within the green hydrogen field from 2024 to 2030 [9]. Group 5: Infrastructure and Capacity Expansion - By 2030, the total demand for green hydrogen in various sectors is expected to reach 4.8 million tons annually, with industrial applications being the largest segment [15]. - The construction of long-distance hydrogen pipelines is progressing, with plans for over 5,000 kilometers of pipelines by 2030 [13]. - The production capacity of green hydrogen is projected to exceed 1 million tons per year by 2027, with significant advancements in technology and infrastructure [12].