快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 作者： 唐纳德 来源：快刀财经（ID：kuaidaocaijing） 喝不喝白酒没关系！但白酒行业确实日子不那么好过。 先看今年618， 白酒的价格那叫一个"跌跌不休" 。在各大电商平台的补贴"大招"下，茅台、五 粮液等头部产品的"百亿补贴"价，直接击穿了批发价。就拿53度飞天茅台来说，限时补贴后，到 手价最低能到1840元/瓶，跟去年同期比，那可跌了不少。 往远处一点的2025年端午节，济南某经销商望着店内琳琅满目的白酒货架，却丝毫感受不到节日 带来的喜悦，尽管白酒销量勉强与去年持平，客单价却暴跌近60%，且往年备受追捧的头部酒被 冷落，300-600元的产品却成了消费者首选。 "高端酒卖不动了，普通酒也不那么吃香"，这是一些经销商老板最典型的感叹。 往深处讲， 现象背后，透露出的是中国白酒产业的集体阵痛 ，作为资本市场和食品消费领域的 一块核心资产，白酒尤其是高端白酒一度被赋予消费和收藏属性。 以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 然而，近年来白酒行业在宏观经济放缓和产业周期调整的双重背景下，迎 ...

Market Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, transitioning from "volume competition" to "value creation" [1] - In 2024, the total production of large-scale enterprises was 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a 7.2% decline in Q1 [1] - Despite the production decline, industry revenue and profit grew by 5.3% and 7.8% respectively in 2024, indicating a shift towards "quality improvement" and "brand influence" [1] Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top six liquor companies accounting for 86% of total industry profits in 2024, up over 30 percentage points from ten years ago [1] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" is now one of the top three high-end liquor brands in China, with a leading national market presence [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with younger demographics (post-85s and post-90s) favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [3] - Consumption scenarios are diversifying, with stable growth in traditional events and emerging trends in cultural experiences and technology integration [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Instant retail transactions for liquor grew over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a shift towards immediate consumption [4] - The company is enhancing its marketing focus from "channel pressure" to "precise reach" and "user operation" [4] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion RMB in 2024, a 482.73% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.27% [6] - Net profit reached 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, a 1431.18% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.37% [6] Strategic Advantages - The company has implemented a comprehensive strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on governance, market share, brand culture, quality, and talent [5] - The company has established a quality traceability system across the entire production chain, enhancing product quality and efficiency [8] Innovation and Development - The company is actively developing lower-alcohol products, with a focus on 38-degree and 28-degree variants, responding to market demand [11] - The company has built an ecological park with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality solid-state liquor [8] Social Responsibility - From 2015 to 2024, the company invested approximately 274 million RMB in public welfare, receiving multiple awards for its contributions [10] - The cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing reached 52.059 billion RMB, with a dividend rate of 61.58%, ranking among the top in A-share companies [10]

在中国，茅台是门大学问。 近来茅台价格动荡，6月12日散瓶批发价首次跌破2000元（1980元/瓶），引发市场恐慌。随后价格继续下探，叠加电商平台618大促，美团、拼多多等以 1499元/瓶低价放量，进一步拉低终端成交价。 6月23日，"今日酒价"显示2025年散瓶飞天茅台批发参考价为1870元/瓶，2025年原箱飞天茅台批发参考价为 1935元/瓶。早前已有消息称，在广州的多家 餐饮门店，大家已经能喝到1499元的飞天茅台。 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2025年6月23日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | ② 25年で天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1935 | 1935 | | の 25年で天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1870 | 1870 | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1950 | 1950 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1900 | 1900 | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 2100 | 2100 | | 23年飞天 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the price of Moutai is experiencing a significant decline, leading to a "demystification" of high-end liquor prices, with the wholesale market price dropping below key psychological thresholds [1][2] - The rapid price drop of Moutai is attributed to long-term inventory accumulation at the channel level, where excessive stockpiling by distributors has created inflated inventory levels [1][3] - The current consumption environment has weakened the demand for high-end consumer goods, leading to a reduction in speculative demand and a rapid evaporation of the "scarcity premium" that supported Moutai's high prices [2][3] Group 2 - The price decline of Moutai is not an isolated incident; the entire high-end liquor industry is undergoing a systemic deleveraging process, with price adjustments observed across various brands [3] - The traditional liquor distribution model, which relied on price arbitrage and layered channel markups, is being reshaped as cash flow margins for companies and distributors shrink [3] - The ongoing price adjustments are expected to create conditions for further expansion of direct sales channels, enhancing price control and increasing retail contributions to profits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in the stock price of JiuGuiJiu, driven by the upcoming launch of a new product in collaboration with the founder of Pang Donglai, which is expected to enhance the brand's market presence and sales channels [1][5]. Group 1: Product Launch and Collaboration - JiuGuiJiu is set to launch a new product named "JiuGuiJiu·Freedom Love," with a capacity of 550ml and an alcohol content of 52 degrees, expected to be available in July [2][3]. - The collaboration between JiuGuiJiu and Pang Donglai began earlier this year, focusing on retail channel expansion and product innovation to boost the white liquor market [4]. - Pang Donglai operates 13 stores in Henan, achieving a total sales revenue of 16.964 billion yuan in 2024, which has garnered national attention due to its high standards in service and product selection [4]. Group 2: Market Strategy and Growth - JiuGuiJiu's management emphasized the importance of differentiated products to meet diverse market demands and plans to enhance its channel value chain, including expanding into restaurants, supermarkets, and new retail e-commerce channels [4]. - The company is also preparing to launch lower alcohol content products (33 degrees, 21 degrees, and 18 degrees) and aims to revive the Xiangquan brand, with production capacity expected to gradually increase this year [5]. - As of June 30, JiuGuiJiu's stock price rose nearly 7%, with a market capitalization exceeding 14 billion yuan, indicating positive investor sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market is experiencing price fluctuations, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye seeing price declines, prompting industry discussions on strategies to manage these changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - High-end liquor prices have dropped since May 30, with Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 seeing declines of over 20 yuan per bottle [2]. - The current market environment suggests that achieving both volume and price increases is challenging, leading to a situation where companies may need to sacrifice one for the other [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Strategies - Liquor companies are focusing on precise and refined management of their distribution channels to stabilize prices [2][3]. - Wuliangye's management emphasizes the need for systematic marketing policies to expand market share across various segments [2][3]. Group 3: Channel Management - Wuliangye is implementing refined management strategies for distributors, including optimizing incentive policies and enforcing contract compliance [3]. - The company plans to reduce planned volumes for underperforming distributors and reallocate distribution areas to maintain price stability [3]. Group 4: Market Expansion - Companies are targeting younger consumers by introducing lower-alcohol products, with Wuliangye planning to launch a 29-degree version of its liquor [4][5]. - The younger demographic shows a preference for personalized and lower-alcohol beverages, indicating a shift in consumption patterns [5]. Group 5: E-commerce and Retail Trends - Instant retail is becoming a significant avenue for growth, with online sales channels rapidly evolving to meet consumer demands for convenience [5]. - Live-streaming sales on platforms like Douyin are increasingly important for liquor marketing, with top influencers achieving significant sales figures [5]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Despite current challenges, industry executives maintain confidence in the long-term growth of the liquor market, viewing it as a cyclical but upward trend [6].

食品饮料周报 白酒企业锐意创新，布局低度化、 年轻化 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-0.35%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：*ST岩石（+2.66%）、伊力特（+1.30%）、天佑德酒 （+1.21%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为古井贡酒（-3.03%）、山西汾酒（-3.81%）、金种子酒（-4.18%）。 观点：白酒企业锐意创新，布局低度化、年轻化。据微酒，在6月27日举办的泸州老窖2024年股东大会上，泸州老窖董事长刘淼表 示，公司要抢占创新高地，重点做"低度化 ...

不仅如此，白酒回收商也面临着前所未有的压力。成都一位回收商透露，目前飞天茅台的单瓶回收价仅为1650元，较昨日大幅下跌近百元。如果数量较多， 回收价甚至只能给到1600元。原箱的回收价为10200元，折合每瓶1700元，不同年份的飞天茅台价格相差无几。 同样，武汉的一位回收商也表示，飞天茅台的回收价格今日再次下跌百元。原箱和散瓶的回收价分别为1650元和1600元。这位回收商无奈地表示："之前囤 了很多货，现在都赔钱了。我现在都不囤货了，卖多少收多少。" 电商平台上的情况同样不容乐观。红星资本局在6月25日的调查中发现，拼多多平台上部分店铺的飞天茅台散瓶单瓶售价已低至1760元，两瓶装的价格更是 优惠至3400元，相当于每瓶仅需1700元。这一价格远低于市场普遍预期，显示出消费者购买意愿的明显减弱。 近期，飞天茅台的市场价格再次经历剧烈波动，引发广泛关注。据"今日酒价"公众号最新发布的消息，2025年份的53度飞天茅台（500毫升装）在批发市场 上遭遇价格滑铁卢。原箱报价从昨日的1915元每瓶迅速下滑至1830元，单瓶跌幅达到85元；而散瓶价格也从1850元跌至1780元，单瓶减少了70元。 这一趋势并非短期 ...

食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，食品饮料ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。(联接A 类：013125；联接C类：013126)。 近期，五粮液（000858）、泸州老窖（000568）、酒鬼酒（000799）召开股东大会。五粮液来看，上半 年宴席市场规模和开瓶率实现良好增长，八代五粮液动态适应市场节奏，对20个重点城市实现终端直 配，提升终端管控能力；泸州老窖来看，公司加大下沉市场开拓，加速中低度酒和创新酒饮的开发，目 前28度国窖1573已经研发成功，将适时投放市场，16度、6度等更低度数的白酒产品也在同步开发中； 酒鬼酒来看，公司以差异化的产品满足多元化市场的需求，已分步启动低端、低度、小酒"两低一小"的 产品战略，重点凸显性价比。 估值端看，白酒板块整体估值偏低，酒企回购或增持动作较多，分红力度持续提升，后续关注内需政策 发布及白酒作为低配板块有望迎来资金流入。大众品板块方面，在外卖爆发利好与旺季 ...

在成都玉林路的潮咖酒吧，山西汾酒打造的"日咖夜酒"快闪店人气爆棚。白天售卖桂花汾酒特调拿铁， 入夜切换为"汾Fashioned"鸡尾酒，精准捕捉年轻人"早C晚A"的生活节奏。洋河则联手连锁小酒馆，将 微分子酒纳入调酒师基酒体系，与水果碰撞出低酒精特饮。即时零售平台成为新战场：美团闪购夜间白 酒订单占三成，"30分钟达"服务覆盖露营、独酌等碎片场景。 区域分化暗藏挑战 尽管苏南地区低度酒占比突破65%，但北方市场仍以高度酒为主导。五粮液调研显示，20-35岁人群中 仅19%偏好白酒，远低于啤酒的52%。 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 孟广鑫 五粮液宣布将于9月推出29度"一见倾心"新品，复刻上世纪经典配方却融入现代口感优化；泸州老窖紧 随其后，38度国窖1573已占其产品线半壁江山，更低度的28度产品进入研发冲刺阶段；洋河股份则计划 在第三季度集中上市果味露酒与33.8度微分子系列，瞄准"轻社交"场景。这场集体"降度"浪潮背后，是 年轻消费力量的崛起——美团闪购数据显示，今年618期间低度酒成交额同比激增10倍，18-35岁群体贡 献超六成销量。 "低而不淡"的技术攻坚战 "低度化绝非简单兑水，而是一场风味保卫战。"某名 ...