俄罗斯数据显示：俄罗斯6月石油产量继续低于OPEC+政策目标。 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production by approximately 550,000 barrels per day in September during the meeting on August 3 [1] - The eight member countries of OPEC+ will fully exit the voluntary production cut plan, allowing the UAE to raise its output based on the adjusted quotas [1] - The reduction plan of 2.17 million barrels per day, which started in April, included an initial phase of increasing production by 138,000 barrels per day, followed by monthly increases of 411,000 barrels per day from May to July [1] Group 2 - On July 5, OPEC+ approved an increase in production of 548,000 barrels per day for August [1]

中石化石油工程技术研究院有限公司，成立于2022年，位于北京市，是一家以从事研究和试验发展为主 的企业。企业注册资本30000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中石化石油工程技术研究院有限公司 共对外投资了3家企业，参与招投标项目688次，财产线索方面有商标信息15条，专利信息728条，此外 企业还拥有行政许可18个。 来源：金融界 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种监测暂堵压裂效果的方法及应用，涉及石油工程技术领域，所述方法 包括：在压裂液中随着压裂砂加入A型球形颗粒；在暂堵过程中，添加暂堵球后，随着压裂砂加入B型 球形颗粒；压裂结束后，使用声波测井仪器沿井筒测量监测段声波响应，识别A型球形颗粒和B型球形 颗粒所处裂缝位置；在生产阶段，通过井口取返排液样，测定A型球形颗粒和B型球形颗粒的浓度占 比，确定暂堵压裂前后裂缝的产出占比。本发明的监测暂堵压裂效果的方法可以通过声波测井仪器和示 踪剂检测实现暂堵压裂效果的准确评价。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天然 气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本12173968.9893万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, marking the longest period of zero purchases since 2018, which poses a survival threat to U.S. shale oil producers [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen below $70 per barrel due to dual pressures, with OPEC considering increasing production, further squeezing market space [1] - The crisis is extending from oil fields to the job market, as refineries are forced to cut production and the throughput at Gulf Coast ports is shrinking [1] Group 2 - China is diversifying its energy sources, securing oil from Russia, Canada, and the Middle East, while exploring de-dollarization in oil transactions with Iran, thereby reducing U.S. influence over the global energy market [3] - The U.S. government has responded to the situation by easing restrictions in key sectors, including allowing General Electric to resume supplying engines to Chinese companies, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [3][5] - The trade standoff reflects a clash of international order perspectives, with China's actions demonstrating a break from zero-sum thinking in resource management [6] Group 3 - The 90-day tariff suspension period poses a critical challenge for the U.S. shale oil industry, as failure to negotiate energy and technology exchanges could trigger systemic crises due to accumulated debts [8] - The movement of eight ethane ships to China symbolizes a potential breakthrough in trade relations, but a genuine resolution requires moving beyond resource competition to mutual benefit [8]

近日，国际能源署(IEA)最新中期石油展望报告称，到2030年，石脑油和液化石油气(LPG)/乙烷等化工 需求将占原油总需求的24%，而2024年占比为22%，2019年为20%。随着运输和发电行业继续向其他燃 料多样化转型，从2026年开始，石化业将成为全球石油需求增长的主要行业。 报告称：石化原料将继续在全球石油需求增长中占据主导地位，其中一半的需求增长将来自乙烷或 LPG，石化品仍然是迅猛发展的天然气液体(NGLs) 供应的主要终端用户。IEA署长法提赫·比罗尔表 示："从2026年开始，在全球NGLs供应稳步增加和向生物燃料持续转变的带动下，石化品将成为推动石 油需求增长的主导。同时，化石燃料(不包括石化原料和生物燃料)的石油需求将稳定在8400万桶/日水 平，峰值可能在2027年出现。" 报告称，石化品消费量的增加与NGLs供应的激增密切相关，中国和美国将引领全球石化产能建设，而 欧洲和亚洲其他经济体则纷纷关闭落后石化产能。全球石化原料需求的持续增长和富含液体的天然气资 源的加速开发，正显著推动乙烯生产向非原油原料的战略转型。这一转变体现在原料结构的多元化上， 轻烃(如乙烷、丙烷)和煤炭等非原油来源 ...

高盛：将第四季度布油价格预期维持在每桶59美元 金十数据7月7日讯，高盛将2025年第四季度布伦特原油价格预期维持在每桶59美元，将2026年布伦特原 油价格预期维持在每桶56美元，理由是供应不及预期（尤其是俄罗斯）以及闲置产能减少等因素形成对 冲。高盛还强调了石油需求的上行风险，预计在中国石油需求强劲、全球经济活动展现韧性以及美元进 一步贬值的推动下，2025年全球石油消耗量将增加60万桶/日，2026年将增加100万桶/日。虽然高盛认 为2025年的价格预测面临的风险均衡，但认为2026年存在下行风险，指因欧佩克+可能会解除疫情后第 二轮165万桶/日的减产举措，以及美国经济衰退可能性上升（高盛分析师预测这种可能性为30%）。 布伦特原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ member countries to increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully reversing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ aims to restore idle capacity in response to resilient global oil demand [1] - The decision to accelerate production reflects a long-term strategy shift towards normalizing idle capacity and market share while strategically constraining U.S. shale oil supply [1] - From March to September, Goldman Sachs projects an increase of 1.67 million barrels per day in crude oil production among OPEC+ member countries, reaching 33.2 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia accounting for over 60% of the increase [1]

西古尔纳-1油田OT2原油处理列一景。中国石油（伊拉克）西古尔纳公司供图 西古油田是伊拉克巨型油田之一，位于巴士拉省首府巴士拉西北约50公里处。2024年1月1日，中国石 油取代埃克森美孚成为该项目牵头合同者。目前油田产量高位运行并保持上升态势，日均产量迈上58万桶 的新台阶。 人民网迪拜7月6日电（记者管克江、任皓宇）近日，伊拉克副总理兼石油部部长哈扬·阿卜杜勒·加尼 前往中国石油西古尔纳-1油田（以下简称"西古油田"）项目视察，点赞中企助力伊拉克经济社会发展。 伊拉克副总理兼石油部部长哈扬·阿卜杜勒·加尼到中企作业西古尔纳-1油田视察。中国石油（伊拉克）西古 尔纳公司供图 6月29日，西古油田OT2原油处理列进油投产，这也是中国石油牵头作业西古油田以来投运的第一个重 大工程。哈扬感谢中方为西古油田稳产上产和支持社区发展付出的巨大努力，希望各方进一步提升运营效 率，推动上产进程，并在天然气回收利用等伊拉克政府重点关注领域加快突破、取得实效，为伊能源事业 可持续发展贡献力量。 据介绍，作为伊拉克南部主力油区处理能力最大、工艺流程最完整、涉及区域最广（棕区和绿区）的 原油处理装置，OT2原油处理列实行采用双频电 ...

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of oil prices, supply, and demand forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Oil Price Forecasts - The 2025 Brent price forecast has been raised marginally by $1/bbl to $67/bbl, with a forecast of $65 in 3Q25, reflecting a slight increase in risk premium [2][16][18] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility in 2Q25, fluctuating over a $20/bbl range due to tariff risks and geopolitical tensions [2][16] - The expectation is for Brent prices to drop to the low to mid-$60s in the near term, with a projected surplus in the oil market [7][37] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, contributing to larger surpluses in the oil market over the next three quarters [3][19] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is anticipated to add approximately 1.1Mb/d by the end of August, with actual increases likely falling short of targets due to compensation plans [19][55] - US shale production is projected to grow by 0.3Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026, with rig activity trending lower [20][82] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 0.8Mb/d in 2025, reflecting improved GDP growth prospects and resilient demand year-to-date [21][22] - The demand outlook has improved due to a more favorable impact from tariffs than initially feared [40] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with no significant impact on oil flows observed [66] - Renewed tensions in the Middle East could potentially lift Brent prices back into the $70/bbl range, but skepticism about supply disruptions remains [8][22] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental loosening of the market [23] - The overall market balance is looser by 0.2Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, driven by rising OPEC+ supply [37] Upside and Downside Risks - Upside risks include firmer global economic growth and improved OPEC+ compliance, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and further OPEC+ production increases [32] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories have been on an upward trend, with a continued build through 2Q25, indicating a growing surplus in the market [37][96] Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in oil demand, particularly in the Middle East, which could further impact prices [3] - The potential for higher Iranian exports exists, although US pressure on Iran appears less likely [4][66] - The overall sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for oil prices in the near term, with expectations of lower prices driving supply responses from US producers [7][37] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment.

该产油国联盟在短短十分钟的视频会议后，宣布将进一步加快集体增产步伐，从下月起恢复更多供应， 令能源交易员措手不及。 欧佩克及其盟友最新掀起的石油供应冲击波，预计将在今年晚些时候加剧全球市场的供应过剩，给油价 带来压力，但同时也回应了美国总统特朗普降低燃油成本的呼声。 这一举动对消费者而言是利好，也可视为特朗普的一次胜利，他一直承诺要降低燃油成本。但对美国页 岩油产区乃至欧佩克成员国来说，这却可能带来痛苦。 欧佩克加速增产，但实际效果或有限 这次会议中，欧佩克+联盟的八个核心成员决定，从8月起每日增产54.8万桶，增幅明显高于此前五月、 六月和七月分别设定的41.1万桶/日，而这本来就已经是最初计划的三倍。 欧佩克+还将在8月3日的会议上考虑是否在9月再增加54.8万桶/日供应。如果实现，将提前一年全面撤 销2023年实施的220万桶减产计划。 不过，实际供应增量可能低于字面数字，因为沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王储正在对此前 超产的国家施压，要求他们放弃增产份额。俄罗斯和伊拉克已开始部分配合，但哈萨克斯坦仍在违规超 产。 欧佩克及其盟友有理由相信，这一增产行动至少在短期内会找到买家，沙特阿拉伯在宣布 ...