Core Insights - The global oil market is experiencing a significant shift due to oversupply and the strengthening of the Ghanaian cedi, leading to potential decreases in fuel prices in Ghana [1][2] - The global oil tanker fleet has accumulated over 1 billion barrels of crude oil, with a daily oversupply of approximately 1.9 million barrels since early 2025, and prices hovering around $70 per barrel [1] - The Ghana Oil Marketing Companies Association anticipates a reduction in gasoline prices by about 4.15%, diesel by 2% to 4%, and liquefied gas by 4.46% starting from October 16 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil production increased by 5.6 million barrels year-on-year in September, with OPEC+ contributing 3.1 million barrels due to the lifting of production cuts by the G7, and production recovery in Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria [1] - Global demand remains weak, with an average growth of only 750,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, significantly below historical levels, and this low demand is expected to persist [1] Factors Influencing Fuel Prices in Ghana - Ghana's fuel prices are influenced by international oil prices, exchange rates, and taxes, with some marketing companies potentially delaying price reductions due to earlier cost increases [2] - The volatility of the cedi creates uncertainty in import costs, and any depreciation of the currency could negate the benefits of falling oil prices [2] - The management of exchange rates by the Bank of Ghana is seen as crucial for maintaining fuel price stability [2]

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its oil supply growth forecast for this year, expecting this trend to continue into next year [1] - IEA predicts that the production from OPEC, OPEC+, and other oil-producing countries will increase, but demand will remain weak, leading to a projected supply surplus [1] - In September, global oil supply increased by 5.6 million barrels per day year-on-year, with OPEC+ contributing an increase of 3.1 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA now expects supply to exceed demand by approximately 4 million barrels per day next year, up from the previous estimate of 3.3 million barrels per day [1] - The forecast for oil supply growth in 2025 has been raised to 3 million barrels per day, compared to the earlier prediction of 2.7 million barrels per day [1] - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, while the demand growth for this year has been revised down to 710,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [1] - The IEA indicates that oil consumption will remain subdued in 2025 and 2026, with an average annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical trends due to a challenging macro environment and the electrification of transportation [1] - The agency also predicts that the transition to renewable energy will occur at a faster pace than anticipated by OPEC and other forecasting institutions [1] Group 2 - OPEC's recent monthly report forecasts that oil demand growth for this year will reach 1.3 million barrels per day, nearly double the IEA's prediction [2] - The report emphasizes that the global economy will continue to grow steadily [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices, increasing the downward risk [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - **Prices**: On October 14, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 453.7 yuan/barrel, continuing to decline. WTI and Brent closed at $59.14/barrel and $63.39/barrel respectively, rebounding slightly but still in a downward channel. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to $0.22/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.25/barrel. The SC continuous - third contract spread maintained a shallow discount of - 1.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: On October 14, the warehouse receipt data of energy and chemical products showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil were all flat compared with the previous day, indicating no significant delivery pressure in the market [2]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply**: Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. In 2026, the global oil supply surplus may reach 2 million barrels per day, mainly due to the production increase of non - OPEC+ countries and the continuous release of traditional production capacity. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month. The EU plans to ban Russian LNG imports by 2027, with limited short - term impact on crude oil supply and demand [3]. - **Demand**: Refinery profits were polarized. Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters increased by 87% - 125% year - on - year, but the demand side of refined oil was still suppressed by macro - pressures. The current market was not in a surplus state, and short - term demand remained resilient [3]. - **Inventory**: Global crude oil inventories remained low, with no signs of inventory accumulation in US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories. The warehouse receipts of crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed no significant changes. Geopolitical conflicts still had a marginal supporting effect on prices [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term: Oil prices may continue to oscillate widely due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices [4]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, SC crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.12% to 448.60 yuan/barrel, WTI decreased by 2.32% to $58.18/barrel, and Brent decreased by 1.75% to $62.28/barrel [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices of crude oil decreased, with the Oman spot price decreasing by 1.54% to $63.26/barrel, and the Shengli spot price decreasing by 1.85% to $59.48/barrel [6]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 145.45% to $0.54/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 14.57% to $4.64/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.05% to $4.10/barrel [6]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.04, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.16% to 6,644.31 points, and the DAX index decreased by 0.62% to 24,236.94 points [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.89% to 42,026.10 million barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 3.25% to 2,270.40 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.09% to 92.40% [6]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: On October 14, 2025, FU futures prices decreased by 1.35% to 2,700.00 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.90% to 3,203.00 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 2.24% to 220.08 cents/gallon [7]. - **Spot Prices**: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased, with the 180CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 2.26% to $389.19/ton, and the 380CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 1.64% to $379.95/ton [7]. - **Paper Prices**: The high - sulfur 180 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.87% to $369.66/ton, and the high - sulfur 380 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.53% to $364.37/ton [7]. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 12.09% to $56.30/ton, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.62% to 503.00 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. Western Petroleum executives predicted that US oil supply would peak between 2027 and 2030, and the petroleum business heads of Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group both mentioned that a supply surplus was imminent [8]. - Spain's natural gas network operator said it was ready to implement the EU's Russian LNG ban if it was advanced to 2027 [9]. - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month [9]. b. Demand - India's Ministry of External Affairs predicted that the Mongolian refinery funded by India would be put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 was expected to increase by 87% - 125% year - on - year, with increased sales of high - margin products [10]. c. Inventory - Gunvor Group's CEO said that oil inventories were very low. The warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and medium - sulfur crude oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were all flat compared with the previous day [11]. d. Market Information - The market was waiting and seeing on the Gaza cease - fire agreement and Sino - US trade disputes, and crude oil prices rebounded moderately. Short - term oil markets were expected to consolidate, and medium - to - long - term oil prices faced downward risks [12]. - Multiple institutions had different forecasts for oil prices. Western Petroleum executives predicted that oil prices would rise above $62 after 2026, while Trafigura Group's petroleum business head thought that oil prices might fall further [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provided multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry chain data [13][15][17].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to decline, hovering near a five-month low due to concerns over potential oversupply and weakening global energy demand [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Brent crude futures fell by 0.19% to $62.27 per barrel, while WTI crude futures decreased by 0.17% to $58.60 per barrel, both reaching five-month lows in the previous trading session [1][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of a possible oversupply of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, significantly exceeding previous market expectations [3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The ongoing trade tensions are negatively impacting global economic vitality and energy consumption forecasts, contributing to a pessimistic market sentiment [3] - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. crude oil inventory data, with expectations of an increase of approximately 200,000 barrels for the week ending October 10 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant oversupply of global oil reaching nearly 4 million barrels per day by 2026, marking an unprecedented level of surplus [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA has slightly reduced its consumption growth forecast for this year while raising supply expectations for non-OPEC countries in the coming years [1] - Oil executives at the London Energy Forum indicated that despite short-term oversupply due to increased production, the global oil market is expected to rebalance in the medium to long term [1] - The rise in consumption from emerging economies may lead to a decline in production due to falling oil prices, which could help restore supply-demand balance [1] Group 2: OPEC+ and Market Outlook - The increase in production from OPEC+ allies and non-member countries is suppressing oil prices, suggesting that while oversupply is visible in the short term, the market is likely to tighten in the medium term [1] Group 3: Production Concerns - ExxonMobil's CEO, Darren Woods, warned that without investment in unconventional oil and gas fields, the decline rate in production could reach 15% annually [2] - Woods believes that the oversupply issue will be a "short-term problem" [3]

尽管油价持续下跌，但是行业巨头纷纷警告称，不应过度看跌。 油价周二跌至五个月低位，布伦特原油一度暴跌3%至每桶61.50美元，创下5月初以来最低水平。国际 能源署（IEA）最新报告显示，原油供应出现"大量过剩"，预计从本月起至2026年6月，日均过剩量将达 320万桶，较此前预估的200万桶大幅上调。 全球顶级大宗商品交易商在伦敦能源情报论坛上一致预警，长期预期的石油供应过剩局面终于开始显 现，预计将进一步压低油价。Trafigura石油交易全球主管Ben Luckock表示，油价可能跌破60美元，"预 计圣诞节和新年期间会跌至50多美元区间"。 然而，交易巨头们也发出谨慎信号。Luckock强调，"在50多美元还做空油价是愚蠢的"，暗示该价位将 成为重要支撑位。这一表态反映出尽管短期看跌，但行业对极低油价的可持续性持怀疑态度。 尽管本月早些时候OPEC+宣布11月仅小幅增产13.7万桶/日，曾一度提振市场信心，但IEA的悲观预测重 新引发投资者对供应过剩的担忧。地缘政治紧张局势缓解以及贸易紧张局势升级，也对油价构成额外压 力。 不过，Tornqvist也表示，虽然石油期货价格应该走低，但市场不太可能进入所谓 ...

尽管油价持续下跌，但是行业巨头纷纷警告称，不应过度看跌。 油价周二跌至五个月低位，布伦特原油一度暴跌3%至每桶61.50美元，创下5月初以来最低水平。国际 能源署（IEA）最新报告显示，原油供应出现"大量过剩"，预计从本月起至2026年6月，日均过剩量将 达320万桶，较此前预估的200万桶大幅上调。 全球顶级大宗商品交易商在伦敦能源情报论坛上一致预警，长期预期的石油供应过剩局面终于开始显 现，预计将进一步压低油价。Trafigura石油交易全球主管Ben Luckock表示，油价可能跌破60美元，"预 计圣诞节和新年期间会跌至50多美元区间"。 然而，交易巨头们也发出谨慎信号。Luckock强调，"在50多美元还做空油价是愚蠢的"，暗示该价位将 成为重要支撑位。这一表态反映出尽管短期看跌，但行业对极低油价的可持续性持怀疑态度。 尽管本月早些时候OPEC+宣布11月仅小幅增产13.7万桶/日，曾一度提振市场信心，但IEA的悲观预测重 新引发投资者对供应过剩的担忧。地缘政治紧张局势缓解以及贸易紧张局势升级，也对油价构成额外压 力。 行业巨头预警短期下跌，但不应过度看跌 据报道，Gunvor集团首席执行官Torb ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates an unprecedented oversupply in the global oil market, projecting a record surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2024, which is significantly higher than previous estimates [1][3] - The oversupply is attributed to increased production from OPEC+ and its competitors, with a notable rise in supply from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina [3] Group 1 - IEA's latest monthly report highlights that global oil supply will exceed demand by nearly 4 million barrels per day next year, marking an unprecedented oversupply situation [1] - The forecast for supply surplus in 2026 has been raised by approximately 18% compared to last month, reflecting ongoing production increases from OPEC+ and its competitors [1] - Brent crude oil futures are nearing $62 per barrel, having declined by 15% this year, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2 - Despite predictions from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan that the market will decline further, oil prices have not collapsed as previously anticipated when Saudi Arabia and its partners increased oil supply [3] - The IEA notes that much of the oversupply is in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) used as petrochemical feedstock rather than crude oil [3] - Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day next year, which is about 200,000 barrels per day higher than IEA's previous estimate [3]

格隆汇10月14日｜WTI原油失守58美元/桶，日内跌近2%。布伦特原油日内跌1.9%，现报61.94美元/ 桶。IEA月报显示，石油市场面临的供应过剩局面将比先前预期更为严峻。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China are set to decrease, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, effective from October 13, 2025 [1] Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, resulting in a savings of approximately 3 yuan for a full 50-liter tank [4] - For a vehicle with a monthly mileage of 2000 kilometers and an average fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will decrease by about 4 yuan before the next price adjustment [4] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers will see a reduction of approximately 106 yuan in fuel costs [4] Market Trends - The current pricing cycle (from September 23, 2025, to October 13, 2025) saw international crude oil prices initially rise due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production plans, followed by a decline due to easing geopolitical premiums and trade tensions [5] - Brent crude oil prices fell significantly, with a notable drop of 4.67% last Friday, closing at $65.16 per barrel, the lowest level since May [6] - WTI crude oil also experienced a downward trend, with prices dipping below $60, reaching a low of $58.22 per barrel, indicating market panic and rapid liquidation of long positions [7] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that with the signing of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, market focus is shifting towards potential oil supply surplus as OPEC gradually exits previous production cuts, which may pressure oil prices in the near term [7] - Short-term market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, with oil prices likely to experience volatility and further downward adjustments [7]