江西瑞昌，一台台发电机组矗立在群山之上。近年来，瑞 昌市大力发展绿色清洁能源，促进节能降耗、低碳减排。 魏东升摄（人民图片） 刚闭幕不久的第十五届全国运动会不仅是体育的盛会，也是一场由大型赛事带动的绿色实践。场馆使用 绿色低碳设计与材料，无废理念贯穿赛事全程，中国南方航空公司专门推出"低碳全运会"主题航班，使 用国家核证自愿减排量（CCER）抵消当次航班碳排放，实现绿色飞行。 货轮在湖北宜昌加注液化天然气。加气站建成投运，为减 少长江流域碳排放提供了条件。 魏启扬摄（人民图片） 无人驾驶矿卡行驶在海南定安县大岭花岗岩矿项目现场。 该项目建立全过程碳排放管控体系，助力绿色矿山向数字 化、智能化、无人化转型升级。 新华社记者 张丽芸摄 为何CCER可以抵消碳排放？这里不得不提到中国的碳市场。在这样一个市场里，碳减排量可以像日常 商品一样被交易。 为何要加快建设碳市场 从启动到现在，中国的碳市场不断完善。今年8月底，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于推进 绿色低碳转型加强全国碳市场建设的意见》（以下简称《意见》），碳市场建设迈入了新阶段。 为何要加快建设这样一个市场？ 这要从我们面临的形势说起。 2024年全球 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China reported a closing price of 59.90 yuan per ton on December 3, 2023, reflecting a 0.25% increase from the previous day [1][4]. Trading Data - The total trading volume for carbon emission allowances today was 866,046 tons, with a total transaction value of 50,740,542.10 yuan [1]. - The volume for the挂牌协议交易 (listed agreement trading) was 639,256 tons, amounting to 38,268,042.10 yuan, while the 大宗协议交易 (bulk agreement trading) accounted for 226,790 tons and 12,472,500.00 yuan [1][5]. - Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances has reached 191,421,882 tons, with a total transaction value of 11,776,357,865.05 yuan [1]. - As of December 3, 2025, the cumulative trading volume stands at 821,690,546 tons, with a total transaction value of 54,809,084,968.56 yuan [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a dual control system for carbon emission intensity and total carbon emissions starting from the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a strategic shift towards carbon reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The new policy aims to leverage existing administrative management advantages while enhancing the use of market mechanisms [1][2]. - The construction of the carbon market in China has entered a new phase of rapid development, with plans for the national carbon market to cover 80% of total carbon emissions in the future [1][2]. Group 2: International Benchmarking - The approach taken by the European Union, which utilizes carbon markets to address emissions in covered sectors and administrative measures for uncovered sectors, serves as a valuable reference for China [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown an upward trend, with the environmental index increasing by 1.59% and the public utility index by 0.89% [5][10] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in production, with national raw coal output decreasing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new pricing regulations for transmission and distribution, encouraging the exploration of capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8][50] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy [5] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - New transmission and distribution pricing regulations have been released, promoting capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8] - The oil and gas extraction sector has been included in the carbon market, incentivizing methane reduction [9] Market Review - Both the environmental and public utility sectors have seen increases, with the environmental sector outperforming the market with a cumulative increase of 16.94% in 2025 [10] - The power sector has lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of only 2.43% [10] Key Data Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [24] - The average price of LNG at the port is 10.94 USD/million BTU (4026 CNY/ton), down 4.42% from the previous week [37] - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 252.14 CNY/MWh on November 24, 2025, an increase of 10.7% [41] Industry Key Events - The Hebei Development and Reform Commission has issued a work plan for long-term electricity trading in 2026 [49] - The National Development and Reform Commission has published new pricing methods for cross-regional transmission projects [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in China's voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), highlighting the introduction of new methodologies that expand the market's coverage and emphasize China's innovative approach in the oil and gas sector [3][5]. Group 1: New Methodologies and Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the National Energy Administration have released three new methodologies for voluntary emission reduction projects, focusing on oil and gas recovery [3][5]. - This marks the first time methodologies related to the oil and gas industry have been introduced, which is significant as there is currently no market-based incentive mechanism for gas recovery projects globally [5][6]. - The new methodologies aim to enhance the CCER market's scope and support China's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035 [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The CCER market is experiencing a recovery and expansion, with an increasing number of projects being registered and a growing demand driven by compliance needs and green finance [8][10]. - However, the price of CCER has been consistently higher than that of carbon allowances, leading to low trading activity and creating challenges for companies in lower carbon price regions [10][12]. - Suggestions for improving the market include enhancing collaboration with allowance trading, introducing new trading entities, and promoting carbon futures to increase liquidity [10][12]. Group 3: Future Directions and International Integration - The CCER market is expected to play a crucial role in achieving China's dual carbon goals by encouraging diverse participation in emission reduction efforts [12][13]. - There is a need for methodologies in the transportation sector, particularly for green fuels like green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel, to facilitate decarbonization in hard-to-abate industries [12][13]. - Long-term projections indicate that the CCER market will not only support domestic emission reduction goals but also contribute to international emission reduction efforts, enhancing China's influence in global carbon pricing [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the carbon quota for enterprises is linked to output without a total cap on emissions, indicating a dynamic adjustment mechanism based on production levels [9][10] - The report highlights the ongoing empowerment of Longjing Environmental Protection by Zijin Mining, with significant shareholding increases and stable management [13][14] - The report identifies a strong performance in the waste incineration sector, with capital expenditures decreasing and cash flow improving, leading to increased dividends [17][18] - The water service sector is seen as the next growth area, with marketization and cash flow improvements expected to drive performance [20][21] - The report notes a significant increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles, indicating a growing market penetration [22] Summary by Sections Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has linked carbon quotas to enterprise output without setting an absolute cap on emissions, with a focus on performance ranking for 2025 [9] - Longjing Environmental Protection has seen significant shareholding increases from Zijin Mining, enhancing its operational capabilities [13][14] - The waste incineration sector is experiencing improved cash flow and dividend payouts due to reduced capital expenditures [17][18] - The water service sector is expected to benefit from market reforms and improved cash flow, positioning it for growth similar to the waste incineration sector [20][21] - Sales of new energy sanitation vehicles have increased by 61.32%, with market penetration rising to 18.02% [22] Company Tracking - Longjing Environmental Protection's new projects in green electricity and energy storage are expected to contribute significantly to its growth [14][15] - The report tracks the performance of various companies in the waste management sector, highlighting improved cash flow and dividend potential [17][18] - The water service companies are noted for their stable performance and high dividend payouts, with expectations for increased cash flow in the coming years [20][21] Market Performance - The report provides insights into the performance of the environmental protection sector, noting a positive trend in stock performance and market interest [3][4]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for December 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and certified voluntary emission reductions (CCER) [1][2] Group 1: Carbon Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA is 53.45 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 61.65 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 57.55 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, and the sell price is 69.40 CNY/ton, with a midpoint of 64.20 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index for CCER decreased by 1.12% to 148.32, while the sell price index increased by 1.80% to 166.95 [1] Group 2: Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.31 CNY/unit, with a price index of 78.36 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from distributed projects is 4.39 CNY/unit, with a price index of 89.07 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from biomass power generation is 3.53 CNY/unit, with a price index of 68.41 [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Performance - In November, the average closing price for CEA was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton [2] - The average daily trading volume of carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons [2] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step in carbon market management [3] - By 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, petrochemicals, civil aviation, and papermaking will be included in the carbon market, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [3] Group 5: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed overall recovery in trading volume, although the Korean carbon market experienced a notable decline [4] - Major global carbon markets generally saw price fluctuations, with mixed results in trading prices month-over-month [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report is bullish on EUA, with a signal strength of 2 today (0 for empty position, ±1 for slightly bullish/bearish, ±2 for bullish/bearish). There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. The bullish factor is that the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered based on the CBAM benchmark value, tightening the carbon market supply. The bearish factors include a small reduction of about 930,000 tons in the long positions of investment funds in EUA according to the latest CoT report, and the "US-Russia peace plan" indicating that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was 81.51 euros/ton (0.39% change), and the bid - cover ratio was 1.67. On November 26, 2025, the CBAM certificate price was 81.51 euros/ton, the EUA auction price was 80.59 euros/ton, the EUA auction volume was 2.1625 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.67, and the auction revenue was 176.27 million euros [2][4]. - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 81.68 euros/ton (-0.23%), and the trading volume was 46,700 lots (0.15 change). The spot settlement price was 81.58 euros/ton (-0.22%), and the spot trading volume was 1,680 lots [2][5]. Strategy - The signal strength today is 2, indicating a bullish stance [2]. Core Logic - **Bullish Factor**: Based on the CBAM benchmark value, the EU ETS quota benchmark value may be significantly lowered, leading to a further tightening of the carbon market supply [2]. - **Bearish Factors**: (1) The latest CoT report shows that investment funds slightly reduced their long positions in EUA by about 930,000 tons; (2) The "US - Russia peace plan" indicates that Russia will be able to export more natural gas [2]. - **Other Information**: (1) As of November 22, EU underground gas storage was about 79%, lower than the 5 - year seasonal average for the same period and significantly lower than 88.3% in the same period last year, with a thinner winter buffer. It continued to decline in the past week. (2) The natural gas plant maintenance in the North Sea and the Norwegian side is mainly planned, and the unplanned event of the UK TGPP from November 23 for about 4 days has limited systematic impact on the supply to the European continent [2][3].

Core Insights - The national carbon market's comprehensive price on November 28 was 59.65 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.93% from the previous day [1][3] - The total transaction volume for carbon emission allowances today was 2,183,525 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 131.1 million yuan [1][6] - Cumulative transaction volume from January 1 to November 28, 2025, reached 187,414,557 tons, with a total value of approximately 11.54 billion yuan [7][11] - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative transaction volume in the national carbon market was 817,683,221 tons, with a total value of approximately 54.58 billion yuan [8][11] Daily Trading Summary - Today's opening price was 60.11 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 60.11 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 58.80 yuan/ton [1][3] - The trading volume for the day included 684,373 tons in the listed agreement trading and 1,499,152 tons in bulk agreement trading [1][5] - There were no single-direction auctions conducted today [1][5] Weekly Overview - The weekly comprehensive price range was between 65.42 yuan/ton (highest) and 58.80 yuan/ton (lowest), with a closing price drop of 8.61% compared to the previous Friday [4][10] - The total weekly transaction volume was 10,048,199 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 585.29 million yuan [6][11] Monthly Performance - The monthly comprehensive price range recorded a highest price of 70.14 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 51.54 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 14.80% compared to the last trading day of the previous month [11][12] - The total monthly transaction volume was 47,753,225 tons, with a total transaction value of approximately 2.76 billion yuan [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall fundamentals and performance of the building materials sector have shown signs of recovery [2]. - The real estate market is currently under pressure, with significant declines in sales and prices, but there is potential for policy support to stabilize the market [5][26]. - The industry is transitioning from a focus on high leverage and turnover to an emphasis on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential [5][26]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector Overview - As of October 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,268 CNY/sqm, down 0.84% month-on-month and 7.60% year-on-year [5][26]. - New residential properties averaged 16,973 CNY/sqm, up 0.28% month-on-month and 2.67% year-on-year [5][26]. - Cumulative sales area of commercial housing fell by 6.8% year-on-year, with a 9.6% decline in sales value [5][26]. - The industry is in a "bottoming" phase, with expectations for policy measures to support recovery [5][26]. Building Materials Sector Overview - The cement industry is now included in the national carbon market, with companies over 2.6 million tons of CO₂ equivalent subject to quota management [5][45]. - The overall revenue of the cement industry is under pressure, but profitability is improving, particularly for leading companies [5][45]. - The glass and fiberglass sectors are experiencing structural recovery, with supply constraints expected to improve competition in the long term [5][46]. - The building materials sector is currently at historical low valuations, with some stocks offering attractive dividend yields [5][45]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, companies such as Poly Developments (600048), Binjiang Group (002244), and China Merchants Shekou (001979) are favored due to their stable operations and focus on first- and second-tier cities [5][26]. - In the building materials sector, companies like Conch Cement (600585), Taipai Group (002233), and Huaxin Cement (600801) are recommended for their strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [5][45]. - For glass fiber, China Jushi (600176) is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its recovery in profitability [5][46].