Group 1: Credit Growth - In December, social financing increased by 2.2 trillion RMB, exceeding the expected 1.8 trillion RMB but lower than the previous 2.5 trillion RMB[2] - RMB loans grew by 910 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 679.4 billion RMB and significantly higher than the previous 390 billion RMB[2] - Corporate loans increased by 1.07 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 580 billion RMB, indicating a recovery trend[2] Group 2: Loan Structure - Short-term corporate loans accounted for 31% of total corporate loans in 2025, up 13 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards short-term financing[2] - Long-term corporate loans recorded 330 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 290 billion RMB, but still below seasonal expectations[2] - Residential loans showed a negative growth of 916 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 4.416 trillion RMB, reflecting weak demand in the housing market[2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate increased to 8.5%, driven by a significant rise in non-bank deposits, while M1 growth rate decreased to 3.8%[4] - The central bank indicated a potential for 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with a current space of 1.3 percentage points for reserve requirement ratio adjustments[4] - Structural monetary policy rate cuts of 25 basis points were implemented, aimed at supporting key sectors and reducing banks' funding costs[4]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，央行货币政策再出重拳，进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 1月15日，中国人民银行正式宣布自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。同时， 在支农支小再贷款项下设立民营企业再贷款，额度1万亿元，并将科技创新和技术改造再贷款总额度调 整为1.2万亿元。 相较于利率下调，单设1万亿元民营企业再贷款额度的信号意义更为强烈。 碳减排支持工具方面，央行明确其按季度操作，每次投放1年期再贷款资金，全年操作量不超过8000亿 元。 多位受访专家在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，央行此举聚焦"五篇大文章"，旨在引导金融资源更 多流向科技创新、制造业转型升级、绿色发展、小微企业及促消费、稳外贸等国民经济重点领域和薄弱 环节。2026年央行将优化运用各类结构性货币政策工具，整体呈现"加量降价"态势，既是对中央经济工 作会议精神的落地践行，也为全年经济注入强心剂。 政策组合拳精准发力 为更好发挥结构性货币政策工具的激励作用，央行明确自1月19日起下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百 分点。 调整后，3个月、6个月和1年期 ...

邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 主要观点： 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 东海期货分析师：明道雨 数据及事件要点： 1、2026年1月15日，央行举行新闻发布会。人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程 中，将与财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。正通过下调结构性货币政策工具利率、 扩大再贷款额度、优化政策工具结构等多项举措，进一步加大对实体经济的精准支持力度，为经济稳定 增长和结构转型营造宽松适宜的货币金融环境。 2、12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元。12月社会融资规模增量为22075亿 元，预期19000亿元，前值为24926亿元，同比少增6462亿元；12月末，社会融资规模存量为442.12万亿 元，同比增长8.3%，较上月下降0.2%。12月M2同比增长8.5%，预期8.0%，前值8.0%，M2较上月上升 0.5%。 主要观点： 12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元；新增社会融资规模22075亿元，预期 19000亿元，前值为24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing eight policy measures to enhance credit support in key areas, aiming to facilitate economic structural transformation and optimization. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, reducing the one-year re-lending rate from 1.5% to 1.25% [1] - The PBOC will merge the quotas for agricultural and small enterprise re-lending and rediscounting, increasing the agricultural and small enterprise re-lending quota by 500 billion yuan, with a dedicated quota of 1 trillion yuan for private enterprises [1] - The quota for re-lending for technological innovation and technological transformation will be increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, expanding the support to include private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment levels [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Support Tools - The PBOC will merge the existing private enterprise bond financing support tool and the technological innovation bond risk-sharing tool, providing a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan [1] - The carbon reduction support tool will be expanded to include more projects with carbon reduction effects, guiding banks to support comprehensive green transformation [1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans will be lowered to 30% in collaboration with the financial regulatory authority [3] Group 3: Consumer and Currency Support - The support areas for service consumption and elderly care re-lending will be expanded to include the health industry, based on health industry recognition standards [2] - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their foreign exchange risk management services and diversify foreign exchange risk management products for enterprises [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the metals sector, it points out that copper's long - term fundamentals are good but short - term prices are affected by inventory structure and geopolitical risks; in the agricultural products sector, it mentions that factors such as supply and demand, policies, and seasonal patterns influence the prices of various products. Summary by Catalog Daily Selections - Alumina: The market maintains a wide - range shock. The core contradiction lies in the tug - of - war between policy expectations and the weak fundamentals. The short - term price is expected to oscillate around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton [2]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the spot price is under pressure. It is expected to operate stably with a downward trend [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal trading in Shanxi has warmed up, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuates with the futures. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the replenishment demand, it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [4]. - Eggs: The egg price has stabilized and increased, and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The futures price is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly stronger state in the short term [5]. Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend. The main stock index futures contracts had different trends, with IH2603 falling and the other three rising. The basis of the main contracts also showed different states [6][7]. - News: Domestically, the central bank adjusted interest rates and increased the quota of some re - loans. Overseas, the US imposed tariffs on some semiconductors [7][8]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market decreased slightly, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations with a net investment [8]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH on dips. For small - and medium - cap indexes, use bull spreads and control risks [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined [11]. - Policy: The central bank cut interest rates on re - loans and rediscounts, and mentioned that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [12]. - Operation Suggestions: Unilateral strategies suggest continued waiting, and curve strategies tend to steepen the curve in the medium - term perspective [13]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data, such as the decline in the number of initial jobless claims and the increase in overseas holdings of US Treasury bonds, affected market expectations. The US government's decision on tariffs and geopolitical tensions also influenced precious metal prices [14][17]. - Future Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side shock in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to operate strongly, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [17][18]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index and the US West route index showed different trends [19]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different performances [19]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot price entering the downward cycle pressured the futures [19]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. The long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term price is affected by factors such as inventory structure and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot inventory continues to accumulate, and the price oscillates widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [25][27]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and oscillates. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory is decreasing, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31][33]. - Zinc: The LME's suspension of zinc delivery from South Korea Zinc boosted the price. The fundamentals show that the supply is tight at the mine end, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term [34][37]. - Tin: The market sentiment has declined, and the price is at a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [37][42]. - Nickel: The price is strong, affected by Indonesia's policy on nickel ore. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand varies in different sectors. It is recommended to operate within a range [42][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate strongly [45][48]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates and adjusts. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and consider positive spreads between months [49][53]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to production cuts and demand recovery [53][55]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is at a low - level shock. It is expected to maintain a supply - demand dual - weak pattern in January, and it is necessary to pay attention to polysilicon production changes [56][58]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The market is in a weak supply - demand state during the off - season, and the price oscillates. It is expected that the steel price will move within a range [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [60][62]. - Coking Coal: The price in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the trading has warmed up. It is recommended to go long on dips before the Spring Festival and pay attention to arbitrage [63][67]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is stable. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage [68][69]. - Ferrosilicon: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation improves marginally. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [70][72]. - Manganese Silicon: The price of manganese ore has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [73][76]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market lacks drivers, and the soybean meal oscillates. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [77][78]. - Live Pigs: The price returns to the oscillating pattern. The supply is relatively abundant in January, and it is recommended to short on rallies after stabilization [79][80]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling sentiment and policy releases [81][83]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price falls, and the domestic market focuses on stocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [84][85]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is stable, and the domestic price stops falling and stabilizes. The short - term price may be adjusted [88]. - Eggs: The price is stable and rising, and the supply - demand pressure is not large. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [92]. - Oils: Palm oil leads the decline in the vegetable oil market. Different oils have different price trends and influencing factors [93][95]. - Red Dates: The market trading is weak, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [96]. - Apples: The market sentiment cools down, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions [97]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The high valuation and downstream production cuts put short - term pressure on PX. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at around 7000 yuan and consider low - long positions in the medium - term [98][99]. - PTA: Similar to PX, it is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to try to go long when the price is below 5000 yuan and consider positive spreads [100][101]. - Short - fiber: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and reduce the processing margin when it is high [102][103]. - Bottle - grade Chips: The supply and demand both decrease in January, and the price follows the cost. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA and pay attention to the processing margin range [104][105]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure due to seasonal inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4000 yuan for EG2605 and consider reverse spreads [106][107]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand situation improves slightly, but the high inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to short BR2603 on rallies and pay attention to the narrowing spread between EB and BZ [108]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to short EB03 on rallies and reduce the processing margin [109][110]. - LLDPE: The basis remains stable, and the short - covering sentiment weakens. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [111][112]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the price is strong. It is recommended to hold the position when the PDH profit expands [113]. - Methanol: The price oscillates due to geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see [113]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand weakness persists, and the price is expected to operate stably with a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [114][115]. - PVC: The price fluctuates due to export policies. It is recommended to wait and see on short positions [116][117]. - Urea: The price center moves up due to agricultural demand and inventory reduction. It is expected to be strong in the short term [118][119]. - Soda Ash: The production capacity recovers, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to take a short - side view [120][123]. - Glass: The sentiment declines, and the sales rate continues to fall. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term [120][124]. - Natural Rubber: The short - term driving force is limited, and it oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [124][126]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support range and consider long - short arbitrage [127][130].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, and the US stock market closed higher. Gold, silver, and copper prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4%. Domestically, December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the suspension of tariff concerns, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Copper prices may adjust in the short - term but will likely see a long - term increase in the valuation center. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to mixed macro news and weak downstream demand. Alumina prices are under pressure and may oscillate weakly. Cast aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels. Zinc and lead prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. Tin prices may shift to high - level oscillations [4][6][8][10][11]. - For steel products, steel prices are generally oscillating due to limited fundamental drivers. Iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate due to strong supply and weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue oscillating due to weak fundamental drivers. For agricultural products, soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [19][20][21][24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims below 200,000 and continuing claims at a low level. The US and Taiwan, China, reached a trade and investment agreement, reducing tariffs from 20% to 15% in exchange for semiconductor - related investments in the US. The US stock market closed higher, the US dollar index rose above 99.3, precious metals prices retreated, and oil prices fell about 4% [2]. - Domestic: December's financial data was better than expected, but the full - year new RMB loans in 2025 hit a seven - year low. The central bank cut the interest rates of structural tools by 25BP and retained the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The A - share market entered a slope correction period after significant volume increases [3]. Precious Metals - The Trump administration decided not to impose full - scale tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. After the suspension of tariff concerns, precious metals prices oscillated at high levels. Market expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice in 2026 [4][5]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a high level, and the London copper found support at $12,800. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market had weak trading. The LME and COMEX inventories increased. Trump may cancel tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key minerals. The market expects the US to impose a 15% import tariff on refined copper from 2027. In the medium - term, the structural imbalance in fundamentals will raise the valuation center of London copper [6][7]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,320 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. The LME aluminum closed at $3,171.5/ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory and domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum rod inventory increased. The strong US employment data supported the US dollar index, and the domestic "structural interest rate cut" showed moderately loose policy characteristics. The downstream demand for aluminum was weak, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, putting pressure on high - level aluminum prices [8][9]. Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2,766 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The spot alumina national average price was 2,671 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises have not significantly reduced production, and the supply - demand surplus continues. The inventory continues to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [10]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The supply - side profit inversion restricts production, and the downstream demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The cost side has slightly loosened, and the price is expected to adjust under pressure [11]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract 2603 rose and then fell during the day and oscillated narrowly at night. The LME zinc oscillated narrowly. The LME will not accept certain brands of zinc for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The downstream consumption is further suppressed, and the social inventory is stagnant at around 118,000 tons. The zinc price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [12][13]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract 2603 oscillated during the day and shifted upward slightly at night. The LME lead oscillated strongly. The LME will not accept certain brands of lead for delivery from April 14, 2026, but the substantial impact is limited. The social inventory increased to 32,500 tons, and the inventory's support for the lead price weakened. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely due to the combination of multiple and short factors [14][15]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract 2603 oscillated at a high level during the day and fell at night. The LME tin fell slightly. On January 15, the tin registered warehouse receipts increased by 2,419 tons. The exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio, daily limit range, and trading volume limit for tin to cool down the over - heated market. The tin price is expected to shift to high - level oscillations [16][17][18]. Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated. The five major steel products' supply increased slightly, the total inventory decreased slightly, and the apparent consumption increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate due to limited fundamental drivers [19]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted slightly. The demand side is restricted by the off - season, and the supply side will see a concentrated arrival of iron ore due to the end - of - year mine production rush. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking enterprises' profitability shrank, and the production slowed down. The upstream coal mines resumed production, but the coking coal output was not high. The downstream finished products had high inventory and limited steel mill profits, and the demand for coke price increases was weak. The price is expected to continue oscillating [21]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 05 contract closed down 0.33%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract closed down 0.74%. The US December soybean crushing volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year. The US biodiesel policy may be finalized in early March. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [22][23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract closed down 2.03%. The Malaysian palm oil export volume increased from January 1 - 15. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, boosting the US soybean oil price. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range [25][26].

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四螺纹收跌热卷持平。夜盘螺纹收平热卷收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、月 | 15 | 日，从国家电网公司获悉，"十五五"期间，国家电网公司固定资产投资 | 预计达到 | 4 | 万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长 | 40%，以扩大有效投资带动新型电力系 | | | | | 统产业链供应链高质量发展。 | 2、Mysteel | 调研：12 | 月山东制造业产废量保持稳定 | 部分企业有增加趋势。 | | | | | | | 3、1 | 月 | 14 | 日，工业和信息化部装 ...

文、摄影/刘佳 1月15日，人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，根据当前经济金融形势需 要，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施。一方面是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，提高银行重点 领域信贷投放的积极性。另一方面是完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 具体包括以下几项： 一是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到 1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、 科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管理，合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域。纳入节能改造、绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型等更多具有碳减排 效应的项目，引导银行支持全面绿色转型。 六是拓展服务消费与养老再贷款的支持领域。结合健康产业认定标准，适时在服务消费与养老再贷款的 支持领域中纳入健康产业。 七是会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持推动商办房地产市场去库 存。 八是鼓励金融机构提升汇率避险服务水平。丰富汇率避险产品，为企业提供成 ...

钛媒体App 1月16日消息，银河证券指出，2026年1月15日，央行发布2025年12月金融数据，并举行新闻 发布会。12月的金融数据有两个重要的积极信号，一是再次显示居民存款搬家正在进行，二是企业中长 期贷款出现回暖。新闻发布会上，人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程中，将与 财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。同时，央行指出今年降准降息还有一定空间。结 构性货币政策工具的宽松在1月份率先落地，符合先前判断。银河证券认为当下货币政策呈现与财政政 策高度协同发力的特征，一季度50BP的降准仍有望落地，保持流动性充裕配合政府债券发行，全面降 息仍需等待时机。稳预期（外部）、稳就业（内部）、稳市场（金融）将是观察全面降息可能落地的主 线。（广角观察） ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points on various monetary policy tools and will enhance these tools [1][6] - Specific measures include increasing the quotas for agricultural and small enterprise loans, expanding support for technological innovation and green projects, and promoting real estate market destocking [1][6][8] Group 2 - There is still room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, with the current average reserve requirement ratio at 6.3% [2][6] - The stability of the RMB exchange rate and the ongoing easing cycle of the USD provide a favorable environment for potential rate cuts [2][6] Group 3 - The policy shift emphasizes the importance of effective transmission of monetary policy and structural optimization rather than merely increasing the scale of monetary expansion [3][7] - The focus industries for the policy adjustments include technology innovation, consumption and elderly care, green low-carbon projects, and support for small and private enterprises [3][8] Group 4 - The recent liquidity improvements and foreign capital inflows may support a bullish trend in stock indices, particularly in sectors like technology and green projects [4][8] - The 10-year government bond yield has stabilized between 1.8% and 1.9%, indicating a potential adjustment to a key position, with expectations of a flat yield curve in the medium term [5][9]