Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and profit-taking after reaching a five-month high, with market attention on key U.S. employment data and tariff uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: LME Copper Market - On September 4, LME three-month copper dropped by $77.5, or 0.78%, closing at $9,898.0 per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13% [4]. - The $10,000 level is currently seen as a strong resistance for copper prices, with insufficient fundamentals to break through [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy meetings [4]. - In August, U.S. private sector jobs increased by 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a loosening labor market [4]. - The anticipated non-farm payroll report may show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum fell by $27.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,591.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $17.5, or 0.61%, closing at $2,843.5 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead dropped by $10, or 0.5%, closing at $1,985.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel declined by $68, or 0.44%, closing at $15,236.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin fell by $106, or 0.31%, closing at $34,556.0 per ton [2][11]. Group 4: Dollar Impact on Commodities - A stable dollar index makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline for the second consecutive trading day, but the main indices have still seen an overall increase of over 10% since the beginning of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 13.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 15.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 19.51% [1] Recent Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index has been in a sideways adjustment since the significant drop on August 27, following a peak of 3888.60 on August 26. The market has struggled to break through previous highs, with increased volatility noted since September [3] - Trading volume has contracted, with daily transactions not exceeding 3 trillion yuan since the drop on August 27, indicating a cooling of trading enthusiasm [3] Market Sentiment and Capital Flow - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to technical adjustment needs, as profit-taking pressure has built up after continuous gains. The market is currently characterized by a "risk-averse and shrinking" capital environment, with a notable net outflow of 1720.68 billion yuan on September 2 [5] - International market conditions, including rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September (with a probability of 92%), have also contributed to the weak performance of U.S. stocks, further impacting A-shares [6] Investment Strategies - In the current market environment, a strategy of "balanced allocation and performance focus" is recommended [8] - Emphasis on the technology sector, particularly sub-sectors with strong performance support and policy catalysts, such as the gaming sector (benefiting from record-high license approvals) and semiconductor equipment (accelerating domestic substitution) [9] - Importance of defensive asset allocation, with gold and other safe-haven assets expected to perform well during market volatility, especially with international gold prices reaching historical highs [10] - Suggested to control positions between 30% to 60% and maintain flexibility to respond to market fluctuations, while constructing a portfolio that includes technology, consumption, and cyclical sectors [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures continue to rise, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, reaching a trading level around $3,547 per ounce, with a peak of $3,557.10 per ounce during the day [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The macroeconomic and geopolitical news is favorable for precious metals, with reports indicating that India is actively selling U.S. government bonds while increasing its gold reserves [1] - The market's anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has intensified, contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has further fueled demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 3: Investment Caution - Investors are advised to remain cautious during this gold rally, as historical peaks often trigger significant profit-taking, similar to the situation observed in April of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. technology stocks has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of the tech rally, particularly in light of a critical report on AI investments and warnings about potential market bubbles [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight increase of about 16 points, with a gain of less than 0.1% [2]. - The current downturn may mark the weakest week for the Nasdaq since mid-May, following a significant rebound of 30% since April [2][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The decline in tech stocks is attributed to the "Big Seven" tech companies experiencing consecutive drops, amidst ongoing concerns about the AI investment bubble and high valuations [3]. - A key report from MIT indicated that 95% of tech companies have not seen returns on generative AI investments, with only 5% of AI pilot projects creating measurable value [3]. - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman compared the current AI enthusiasm to the internet bubble of the 1990s, suggesting that some investors may incur significant losses [3]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The U.S. government is shifting its industrial policy focus towards technology stocks, but this has not improved investor confidence in AI and tech stocks [4]. - Analysts have noted that profit-taking and low liquidity have contributed to the recent market volatility, especially as some tech stocks have surged over 80% since early April [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - There are indications that the tech sector may be facing a reckoning, as the market has seen a leadership shift with growth stocks lagging behind small-cap and value stocks [5]. - Bank of America suggests that the era of large-cap dominance may be nearing its end, as historical trends show that large-cap stocks tend to underperform during economic recoveries [6]. - Despite the challenges, some analysts remain optimistic about the tech sector, citing strong demand for AI solutions and encouraging investors to buy on dips [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's upcoming Q2 earnings report, which will serve as a critical test for the sustainability of the AI hype [8].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has experienced a significant decline of over 18% from its recent peak, marking the longest consecutive drop since April 2024, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $73 billion [1][5][12]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - The recent sell-off in technology stocks has led to profit-taking among investors, particularly affecting high-flying stocks that had previously driven index gains [3][10]. - Palantir's stock has fallen for six consecutive trading days, with a total drop of over 18%, pushing it out of the top 20 U.S. companies by market capitalization [12][11]. - The stock's decline has been attributed to a report from short-seller Citron Research, which criticized Palantir's valuation as disconnected from its fundamentals [8][11]. Group 2: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - Since early June, short positions in Palantir have increased by approximately 10 million shares, leading to over $1.6 billion in paper profits for short-sellers during this downturn [1][16][14]. - Despite the recent drop, Palantir's stock has still risen 106% year-to-date, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 [15]. - The short interest in Palantir has decreased from nearly 5% a year ago to about 2.5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment among short-sellers [15]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Analysts have raised concerns about Palantir's high valuation, with a forward P/E ratio of 193 times, making it appear particularly expensive compared to peers [13][12]. - Citron's founder, Andrew Left, suggested that Palantir's stock price should be significantly lower based on its fundamentals, especially when compared to AI leaders like OpenAI [12][13]. - The overall market sentiment reflects a re-evaluation of high-valuation stocks, with many investors locking in profits and reallocating funds to cheaper sectors [10][9].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a slight rebound but remains at a low level, having recently dropped to a two-and-a-half-week low [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger, Bitcoin has been in an "adjustment mode" since reaching a historical high last week [1] - The market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have been weakened due to higher-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data [1] - A portion of the recent sell-off may be attributed to profit-taking by short-term accounts [1] Group 2: Regulatory and Strategic Factors - Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary regarding the strategic Bitcoin reserve not being expanded through new purchases may have also influenced market behavior [1]

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Group 1 - Gold futures regained upward momentum, trading around $3445, facing profit-taking pressure and weak long positions among short-term traders [1][2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported record high gold inventories, indicating strong demand in China, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered for futures delivery [2] - Gold prices rose for three consecutive days following weak U.S. employment data, but profit-locking by investors led to a short-term pullback as risk aversion decreased [2] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls hold an overall advantage, with the next target being a close above the July high of $3509 [3] - Key resistance levels are at this week's high of $3444.90 and $3450, while support levels are at this week's low of $3397.90 and $3350 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The southbound capital experienced a rare net outflow exceeding 180 billion HKD, driven by short-term risk aversion and profit-taking during a market rebound [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 4, the Hong Kong stock market indices showed a slight rebound, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.55%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 1.01% [1]. - The total market turnover was approximately 234.7 billion HKD, with southbound capital transactions amounting to about 130.1 billion HKD [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow Analysis - The southbound capital recorded a net outflow of 180.92 billion HKD, marking the largest single-day net sell-off since May 12 [3]. - The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net outflow of approximately 111.24 billion HKD, while the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect experienced a net outflow of about 69.68 billion HKD [3]. Group 3: ETF Activity - Three major high-liquidity ETFs in Hong Kong faced significant sell-offs, with the top three ETFs experiencing net outflows of 145.34 billion HKD, 63.25 billion HKD, and 14.53 billion HKD respectively [8]. - The year-to-date returns for these ETFs have exceeded 20% [8]. Group 4: External Environment and Market Sentiment - Concerns regarding deteriorating trade conditions affecting Hong Kong's export-oriented companies and Chinese concept stocks have emerged, particularly following agreements reached by Trump with multiple countries [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market had been in a downward trend prior to this event, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing four consecutive days of decline and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping for seven consecutive days [9]. Group 5: Individual Stock Movements - Notable net purchases were observed in individual stocks, with Alibaba-W, InnoCare Pharma, and Kuaishou-W leading the net buy list, amounting to 7.28 billion HKD, 3.63 billion HKD, and 2.2 billion HKD respectively [9]. - InnoCare Pharma saw a significant increase in its stock price, closing at 75.15 HKD per share with a rise of 30.47%, following a partnership announcement with NVIDIA [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights the finalization of tariffs by the Trump administration, eliminating a major source of uncertainty in the market, but warns of the potential negative impact on the global economy due to high tariffs and weak employment data [3][6]. - Nomura's report identifies two negative catalysts: the finalized tariffs that exceeded expectations and the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, which could trigger profit-taking and position adjustments in the market [4][11]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 16.3% to 17.5%, with varying impacts on different economies, such as the EU, South Korea, and Japan receiving a 15% tariff rate, while India faces a 25% tariff, significantly higher than the expected range [7][8]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 120,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248%, the highest since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [11]. - There has been a reversal in capital flows, with foreign investors turning net sellers of emerging Asian stocks after seven weeks of inflows, primarily driven by the negative impact of high tariffs on the Indian market [12][13]. - Earnings expectations for Asian markets are weakening, with a 1.2% downward adjustment in consensus earnings for FY25E among 43% of MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) companies, while U.S. earnings show resilience with a 10.3% year-over-year growth rate for the second quarter [16].