Core Viewpoint - US stocks experienced a decline on Tuesday, reversing gains from the previous session due to renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing [1] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 416 points, representing a 0.9% drop [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.1% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite saw a decline of 1.6% [1]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that the U.S. job market is facing increasing risks, prompting the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy [1] - Anna Paulson, the new president of the Philadelphia Fed, suggests that tariffs may raise inflation but their impact is not as lasting as previously expected, influencing future monetary policy discussions [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump plans to meet at the end of October to ease tensions caused by tariff threats and export controls [1] Group 2 - Thierry Wizman, a foreign exchange and interest rate strategist, notes that trade tensions could affect the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) upcoming interest rate decisions [1] - If high tariffs are still a possibility by October 29, the FOMC may be less inclined to cut rates, especially with U.S. inflation remaining "sticky" [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chip, LLDPE, PP, PL; methanol and urea are rated as "oscillating"; PVC and caustic soda are also rated as "oscillating" [9][10][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][24][29][30][31][32][33] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the energy and chemical industry remains weak. Although there are some temporary positive factors such as the easing of trade tensions and the progress of the peace agreement in the Middle East, the fundamental pressure persists. The industry is still dominated by the high - growth production period of OPEC +, facing the pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. Most product prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Macroeconomic factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. Global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth production of OPEC +. Later, there will be pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the decline of refinery operations. The geopolitical support is weakening, and the macro - risk is fluctuating. The short - term macro - factors play a more significant role. The oil price may rebound but the downward trend is hard to reverse [9] - **Market News**: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and maintain the growth forecast of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's crude oil production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. India and the US are expected to reach a trade agreement before the autumn deadline, and India hopes to buy more energy and natural gas from the US. World leaders participated in the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace agreement [9] 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot price is continuously falling, and the asphalt futures price is also falling. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled down, and the trade conflict has put pressure on the crude oil price, which in turn suppresses the asphalt futures price. The asphalt spot price is falling, the production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply tension has been greatly relieved, and the over - valued premium is starting to decline [10] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The expectation of production increase and the cooling of geopolitical situation lead to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures price. Geopolitical upgrading has a short - term impact on the price, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the processing demand of domestic refineries is increasing, the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the power generation demand in the Middle East is lower than expected, so the overall demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil in China may lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for low - sulfur fuel oil [12] 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: There is still capital gambling on the impact of Iran - related factors, and methanol rebounds cautiously. It is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [24] - **Main Logic**: On October 13, the methanol futures price rebounded. Some capital is gambling on the news that the unloading of Iranian - sanctioned ships may be blocked. Although the port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, considering the high probability of Iranian - related disturbances in winter, methanol still has the value of low - level buying. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment of the energy and chemical industry and the weak downstream olefin market [24] 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: There is a short - term improvement in transactions, but the downward pressure trend continues. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure after a short - term positive period [24] - **Main Logic**: On October 13, driven by the expected monthly guiding price of urea announced by the nitrogen fertilizer association in the next half - year, the downstream transactions improved and the futures price rose briefly. However, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is necessary to wait for the agricultural demand after the autumn sowing [24] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The port inventory has reached an inflection point and will accumulate slightly in the short term. The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [20] - **Main Logic**: The oil price is oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the pressure of future arrivals is increasing. It is in a stage of weakening supply - demand balance, and the spot market is loose [20] 3.1.8 PX - **View**: After the oil price breaks through and then recovers, PX's supply and demand are both strong, and its profit is adjusted within a certain range. It is expected to oscillate within a range [13] - **Main Logic**: Trump's attitude has eased, and the international oil price has rebounded slightly after breaking through the low level. PX has followed the cost and fallen slightly. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. PTA has no further production reduction plan, and the polyester load is relatively stable, which provides some support for PX demand. However, PX's own supply is still in a strengthening trend [13] 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: There is no further production reduction plan, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [14][15] - **Main Logic**: The international oil price broke through and fell last Friday, and although it rebounded later, the cost support has been slightly dragged down. PTA factories have no further production reduction plan, and some devices will increase their load in the short term. With the expectation of new device commissioning, the basis is weak. The downstream polyester demand provides certain support, and the sales of polyester yarn have increased under the promotion of price concessions [14][15] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost, but the processing fee has a certain support. The absolute value will follow the raw material price [21] - **Main Logic**: The upstream market is generally weak, and the short - fiber price has oscillated and fallen due to the cost. At a low price, it has triggered some speculative stockpiling, and the sales have increased slightly. It is expected to follow the upstream price in the short term, and the processing fee has some support [21] 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: The low price has triggered speculative replenishment, and the processing fee has been further repaired. The absolute value will follow the raw material price, and the support at the lower end of the processing fee has increased [22] - **Main Logic**: Due to Trump's attitude easing over the weekend, the upstream raw material price did not fall deeply. The low price of bottle - chips has triggered some speculative replenishment, and combined with factory production reduction, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has been further repaired [22] 3.1.12 LLDPE - **View**: The fundamental support is limited, and it oscillates weakly under the influence of macro - factors [29] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the overall energy and chemical market has been oscillating weakly, and LLDPE has followed. The oil price is oscillating, and although the US has increased sanctions on Iran - related entities, the Iranian oil supply is still stable. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure of supply surplus. The plastic's own fundamental support is limited, and the peak season is coming to an end, so the upper - and middle - stream enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices [29] 3.1.13 PP - **View**: The cost support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [30] - **Main Logic**: The Sino - US trade friction has intensified again. The oil price is oscillating, and the supply is in an increasing period with the pressure of supply surplus. PP's own fundamental support is limited, with high production and limited demand, and the high - level inventory will suppress the price. It is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance [30] 3.1.14 PL - **View**: The raw material support has weakened, and it oscillates weakly [31] - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is bearish, and downstream buyers are cautious. Enterprises have difficulty in selling products and have to offer discounts. The regional differentiation is intensifying, and the high - price transactions are difficult to achieve [31] 3.1.15 PVC - **View**: There is still fundamental pressure, and it oscillates. The fundamental situation is under pressure, and it is expected to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariffs and the 14th Five - Year Plan on market expectations [32] - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, with the cost moving down. The upstream autumn maintenance will increase in mid - October, the downstream start - up rate is weak, the export orders have improved, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [32] 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - term spot supply and demand have improved. The pressure on the spot market has been relieved, and short - positions should be closed at the appropriate time [33] - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the short - term spot supply and demand of caustic soda have improved. The procurement of some enterprises has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong. The non - aluminum peak season is coming to an end, and the low inventory may drive non - aluminum enterprises to buy at low prices. The production of caustic soda will decline in mid - October due to maintenance [33] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.48 (change: 0.03), and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 52 (change: - 10) [34] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 178 (change: 16), and the warehouse receipts are 43,900 [35] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., also show different changes [37] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also monitors the basis and spread of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but the specific content is not fully presented in the text [38][51][63] 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 13, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2233.00 (+0.01%), the commodity 20 index is 2525.09 (+0.17%), and the industrial products index is 2211.57 (-0.64%) [279] - **Sector Index**: The energy index on October 13, 2025, is 1139.91, with a daily decline of 1.42%, a 5 - day decline of 7.10%, a 1 - month decline of 4.63%, and a decline of 7.17% since the beginning of the year [281]

白银一度上涨至每盎司接近52美元，涨幅最高达3.1%，并超过上周高点；黄金则突破每盎司 4070美元，延续已连续八周创纪录上涨的走势。铂金和钯金也一同走强，迹象显示，由于投 资者需求激增引发的市场压力正开始向其他贵金属蔓延。 由于对伦敦市场流动性不足的担忧加剧，白银进一步逼近1980年创下的每盎司52.50美元纪 录（该纪录建立在现已停用的芝加哥期货交易所合约上）。伦敦的基准价格飙升至几乎前所 未有的、显著高于纽约交易所的水平，促使一些交易商预订跨大西洋航班的货舱来空运银条 ——这种成本高昂的运输方式通常只用于黄金——以套利伦敦的巨额升水。 白银租借利率——在伦敦市场借入金属的年化成本——周五在一个月期限上飙升至30%以 上，使试图展期空头头寸者的成本高得惊人。黄金与钯金的租借利率也同步收紧，表明在今 年早些时候大量金属被运往纽约之后，伦敦的金银储备正承受更广泛的抽紧。 高盛集团分析师在报告中写道，白银市场"流动性较差，规模大约只有黄金的九分之一，这会 放大价格波动" 。 他们表示，"在缺少央行买盘来锚定白银价格的情况下，即便投资资金短暂 回撤，也可能引发不成比例的回调，因为这也会逆转推动本轮涨势的重要因素— ...

Core Insights - The crypto market experienced its largest liquidation event in history, with approximately $19 billion liquidated in a single day, marking it as the worst day for crypto ever [2][4][6] - The significant drop in Bitcoin's price from $118,000 to $101,000 was triggered by President Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese tech, leading to a broader market collapse [2][4] - Altcoins suffered even greater losses, with some, like SUI, plummeting by as much as 80% [2][4] Market Impact - A total of ~$19.1 billion in positions were liquidated, with ~$16.7 billion of those being long positions, indicating a massive forced unwinding across exchanges and perpetual protocols [3][4] - The open interest in the market was reduced by $65 billion, effectively resetting market positioning to levels seen in midsummer [3][4] - The event left over 6,300 wallets in the red, with more than $1.2 billion in trader equity vaporized [3][4] Recovery and Future Outlook - Following the crash, major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, have shown signs of recovery, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $114,100 [6] - The market is still assessing the full implications of the liquidation event, and the exact causes remain unclear [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets experienced significant volatility, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $4060 per ounce before settling around $4040, amidst concerns over trade tensions and market reactions to political statements [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged to $4060 per ounce, marking a new historical high, before retracting to approximately $4040 [1]. - Following a post by Trump, the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.7%, erasing $2 trillion in market value, indicating the influence of political statements on market sentiment [3]. - The volatility in the markets included a near 40-dollar fluctuation in gold prices, a more than 2% increase in NY copper, and a nearly 3% rise in both WTI and Brent crude oil [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 index is currently near its highest valuation in 25 years, suggesting limited room for negative news [3]. - Analysts predict that if the economy remains stable, there could be a market rebound later in the year, despite the current volatility [3][4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold's primary trend remains upward, with significant support levels identified at $3939.38 and $3888.43, while a drop below $3819.42 would signal a bearish trend [5]. Group 3: Political Influence - Trump's recent comments aimed to reassure the market, suggesting that aggressive trade measures may not be inevitable [4]. - The current situation poses risks to global supply chains, particularly those related to artificial intelligence, but there remains a chance for concessions between parties [4]. - Historical trends suggest that gold could see substantial increases, with predictions of reaching $6000 by next spring based on past bull market performances [5].

Core Insights - The stock market experienced a significant decline due to renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with the S&P 500 index dropping 2.7% and losing approximately $1.5 trillion in market capitalization [1][2]. Rare Earth Industry - Rare earth equities capitalized on the market downturn, with notable gains in stocks such as MP Materials, which rose about 8.4% to close at $78.34, driven by increased investor interest in domestic critical mineral supply chains and regulatory support [3]. - USA Rare Earth saw a nearly 5% increase, closing at $32.61, as investors recognized its strategic importance in developing a U.S.-based supply chain for rare earth magnets amid trade tensions [5]. - NioCorp Developments advanced over 5% to close at $10.39, benefiting from its focus on the Elk Creek Project, which features North America's highest-grade niobium deposit and significant scandium capacity [7]. Impact of Tariffs - The recent announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, effective November 1, is a response to China's export restrictions on rare earth elements, which are crucial for high-tech and defense industries [2]. - The U.S. currently relies on China for about 70% of its rare earth imports, a situation viewed as a national security risk due to the essential role of rare earths in electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, and defense equipment [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the new tariffs may disrupt U.S. manufacturers dependent on Chinese rare earth materials, they could also benefit domestic producers by accelerating government incentives and private investments aimed at reducing foreign dependence [9].

Core Insights - LME copper prices fell due to concerns over escalating global trade tensions, with three-month copper down $349.5 or 3.22%, closing at $10,518.0 per ton [1] - The price had previously approached historical highs, reaching nearly $11,000 [1] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,518.00, down $349.50 or 3.22% [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,748.00, down $50.50 or 1.80% [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,001.50, down $9.00 or 0.30% [2] - Three-month lead: $2,020.50, down $9.50 or 0.47% [2] - Three-month tin: $36,173.00, down $887.00 or 2.39% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Following Freeport's declaration of force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, there was a surge of investment in the copper market [4] - Chile's state-owned copper company Codelco reported a 25% year-on-year drop in August production due to a fatal collapse [4] - Demand for industrial metals remains weak, limiting price increases, with copper inventories in China rising 15% since late September [5] - The copper premium in Yangshan remained stable at $49 per ton, the lowest since August 19 [5] Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to remain between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton for the 2026/2027 period due to market oversupply, but maintains a positive long-term outlook [5] - In the nickel market, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% price drop to $14,500 per ton by December 2026, requiring further profit margin reductions from Indonesian producers to address oversupply [5] - The aluminum market is expected to face oversupply starting mid-2026, with prices projected at $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026, not recovering to current levels until 2030 [5]

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.9%, the Nasdaq dropping by 3.56%, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 2.71%, marking the largest single-day drop since April for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones accumulated a decline of 2.73%, the Nasdaq fell by 2.53%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 2.43% [2] - Major technology stocks saw widespread losses, with Broadcom down nearly 6%, Tesla over 5%, and Amazon close to 5% [2] International Trade Concerns - President Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs in response to stricter export controls on rare earth minerals by other countries, raising investor concerns about worsening international trade relations [6][7] - The potential tariff increases are part of a broader strategy to counteract actions taken by other nations, as stated by Trump on his social media platform [7] Government Shutdown and Layoffs - The US federal government has entered its tenth day of shutdown, leading to the initiation of employee layoff procedures as confirmed by the White House [8] - The layoffs are part of a plan to reduce the size of the federal government, with the Department of Education also expected to face cuts [9] Commodity Market Movements - International gold prices rose, with COMEX gold futures increasing by 1.58% to $4035.5 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 3.15% [10] - In contrast, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil futures down by 4.24% to $58.90 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures down by 3.82% to $62.73 per barrel [10] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping by 9% and briefly falling below $110,000 [4] - In the last 24 hours, nearly 1.52 million traders experienced liquidation events [5]

Group 1 - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has downgraded Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.9% to 0.7%, marking the third consecutive downgrade [1] - Slovenia's economic growth significantly slowed in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.1%, compared to 1.7% in the same period last year, primarily due to declines in investment and industrial production [1] - Despite a negative growth in the first quarter, household consumption was stimulated by real wage growth and low unemployment, leading to enhanced investment activity in the second quarter [1] Group 2 - The EBRD predicts that international financial institution investment growth will be the main driver for Slovenia's economic recovery in 2026 [1] - Slovenia, as a highly open economy, is indirectly affected by the U.S. tariffs on EU and Swiss goods, which poses uncertainties for trade policies [1] - The EBRD forecasts an average growth rate of 2.4% for Central and Eastern European countries this year, with Croatia and Poland expected to have the highest growth rates, both projected to exceed 3% this year [2]