Core Viewpoint - President Trump's potential announcement regarding further sanctions on Russia, particularly in the energy sector, could significantly alter the oil market outlook [1] Group 1: Oil Market Impact - Oil prices have increased, with Brent and WTI crude futures both rising by 0.5% in anticipation of Trump's statement [1] - The possibility of new sanctions targeting Russian energy could lead to substantial changes in oil supply dynamics [1] Group 2: Trade Tensions - The recent escalation in trade tensions has limited the extent of price increases, as the latest tariff threats from the U.S. cast a shadow over energy demand prospects [1]

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：国内累库继续 铝价区间调整 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 14 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。宏观上美国总统特朗普宣布对加拿大和 其他贸易伙伴征收新关税，贸易紧张局势再度升温。美联储理事沃勒周四 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is the necessity to transform the consensus reached by the two heads of state into specific policies and actions to stabilize and improve bilateral relations [1][2] - The meeting is significant as it marks the first face-to-face contact at a high level since Trump returned to the White House, highlighting the importance of regular interactions to build a stable foundation for U.S.-China relations [2][3] - There is a strong possibility of a future meeting between President Trump and Chinese leaders, contingent on creating a favorable atmosphere and preparing for outcomes [3][4] Group 2 - The discussions emphasized the importance of maintaining open communication channels and exploring potential areas of cooperation while managing differences [5] - The frequency and timeliness of U.S.-China interactions are noted to be lacking compared to previous administrations, which does not align with the significance of the bilateral relationship [5] - The focus of the recent talks was not primarily on trade issues, despite ongoing tensions, indicating a broader agenda for cooperation beyond economic matters [4][5]

Group 1 - Gold prices in London hovered around $3,340, with spot gold briefly rising above this level despite a strengthening dollar, supported by escalating trade tensions [1] - The announcement of a 50% punitive tariff on Brazil by President Trump, effective August 1, has heightened concerns over global trade, leading to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The Federal Reserve's officials indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, with discussions of potential rate cuts in the fall [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a key support level at $3,310, and the need to close above this level for further upward movement [4] - The resistance levels to watch are between $3,343 and $3,345, with the market currently showing a short-term bullish trend [5]

Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with three gold stores reporting price increases. Chow Sang Sang's gold price increased by 5 yuan per gram, reaching 1004 yuan per gram, making it the highest-priced store. Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 35 yuan per gram between the highest and lowest stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on July 11, 2025, show that Lao Miao Gold is priced at 999 yuan per gram (up 3), while other brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook remain unchanged at 998 yuan per gram. Lao Fengxiang is priced at 1002 yuan per gram (up 2), and the overall market shows a mix of price stability and slight increases [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices also experienced a rebound, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 yuan per gram, now priced at 551 yuan per gram. The article invites readers to inquire about other platinum prices for further updates [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 1.6 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands. The current gold recycling price is 760.30 yuan per gram, while brands like Cai Bai and Lao Fengxiang have higher recycling prices at 765.70 and 773.30 yuan per gram, respectively [2] International Gold Market - The spot gold price has shown an upward trend, closing at 3323.76 USD per ounce, with a 0.31% increase. As of the latest report, it is currently at 3341.88 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% rise. The increase is attributed to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs [4] - The market anticipates a 65.8% probability of a rate cut in September and an 84.5% probability in October, influenced by inflation data and economic performance. Additionally, President Trump's announcement of tariffs on copper and Canadian imports has heightened global trade tensions, contributing to increased market uncertainty [4] - Overall, the outlook for spot gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing tariff uncertainties, suggesting that domestic gold prices are unlikely to see significant declines in the short term [4]

Group 1 - Trump announced a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, 2025, indicating a continuation of his economic policies [1] - The announcement has led to a quick rise in the USD/CAD exchange rate, reaching a high of 1.3730, reflecting investor expectations of increased trade tensions [1] - Spot gold prices surged over $10 in early Asian trading, reaching around $3,336 per ounce due to the heightened trade tensions [1] Group 2 - Analyst Felix noted that gold prices managed to reclaim the Fibonacci retracement level of $3,297 after briefly falling below it, with the RSI showing a slight recovery [2] - Analyst Chad emphasized that gold needs to break above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,323 to initiate a more significant rebound, targeting $3,346 [3] - If gold fails to break the 50-day SMA, it may face increased selling pressure and retest the Fibonacci support level at $3,297 [3] Group 3 - The daily chart for gold shows a bullish bias with resistance levels at $3,340, $3,350, and $3,365, while support levels are at $3,322, $3,311, and $3,302 [4] - The daily chart for EUR/USD indicates a bearish bias with resistance levels at 1.1691, 1.1726, and 1.1752, and support levels at 1.1658, 1.1685, and 1.1633 [5]

Group 1 - Silver prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase to $36.57 per ounce, marking a rise of 0.55% [1] - The opening price for silver today was $36.34 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.71 and a low of $36.27 [1] - Market expectations are building around the Federal Reserve signaling a potential interest rate cut, which may limit short-term gains for silver prices [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's June policy meeting minutes reveal a divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, contributing to rising gold prices [2] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data continues to cool, the likelihood of a rate cut in September will increase, potentially weakening the dollar and supporting higher gold prices [2] - Trade tensions are expected to impact global economic growth, with new tariffs likely raising import costs and inflation pressures, enhancing gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [2] Group 3 - Aviva Investors anticipates a flattening of the long end of the Japanese government bond yield curve, suggesting a shift from long-term to short-term bond issuance [2] - The company notes that while monetary policy remains cautiously tightening, the timing of interest rate hikes remains highly uncertain [2] - Japanese automakers are significantly reducing export prices to the U.S. in response to high tariffs, with vehicle export price index to North America dropping 19.4% year-on-year, the largest decline since 2016 [2]

【要闻速递】 周三（7月9日），特朗普宣布自8月1日起对从巴西进口的商品以及铜产品征收高达50%的关税，震惊全 球市场。更令人关注的是，特朗普还在本周早些时候针对14个国家发布了关税通知，其中包括对韩国和 日本进口商品征收25%的关税，并威胁称若无法达成协议，关税将于8月1日正式生效。此外，特朗普又 于周三新增了对七个次要贸易伙伴的关税通知，进一步扩大了贸易战的影响范围。 这些激进的关税措施不仅加剧了全球贸易紧张局势，也让市场对未来经济不确定性充满担忧。黄金作为 传统避险资产，在这种背景下自然受到投资者追捧。 City Index资深分析师Matt Simpson却提醒道："市场对关税新闻的反应似乎正在减弱，'关税疲劳'已经显 现，交易商可能需要新的催化剂来激发市场波动。"尽管如此，特朗普的关税政策仍在短期内为金价提 供了显著的上涨动能。 【技术分析】 从技术角度来看，黄金价格的看涨潜力仍然有限。日线图显示，金价在斐波那契水平之间形成下行通 道。金价仍低于6月份跌势的38.2%回撤位，该位在3325美元/盎司附近构成阻力位。与此同时，平坦的 20日简单移动平均线(SMA)与6月份跌势的50%斐波那契回撤位在3 ...

Group 1 - The current silver price is trading at $36.46 per ounce, with a daily opening at $36.69 and a high of $36.76, while the lowest price reached $36.42 [1][2] - Recent U.S. tariff policies announced by President Trump have escalated trade tensions, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion among investors [3] - The inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and silver prices has created pressure on silver, but the demand for safe-haven assets has surged, driving funds into silver and pushing its price upward [3] Group 2 - The current silver price is in a weekly consolidation phase, with a daily upward trend still intact; short-term pullbacks are expected, but support is seen around the Bollinger lower band at $36.14 [4] - The CCI indicator has turned upward from the oversold zone, suggesting potential for further price increases [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to focus on buying on dips, indicating a bullish outlook for silver [4]

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, but faces increasing resistance in the second half due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policies and global geopolitical tensions [1] Trade Growth Analysis - Global trade grew approximately 1.5% in the first quarter, with an expected growth of 2% in the second quarter [1] - Price increases are the main driver of the growth in global trade value, while trade volume only increased by 1% [1] - Service trade remains the primary driver of global trade growth, with a 9% increase over the past four quarters [1] Trade Imbalance Concerns - The report indicates a worsening global trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters [1] - The recent U.S. tariff measures have heightened the risk of trade fragmentation, and potential further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chain stability [1]