| | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。 | | | | | 从分省数据来看，2025 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 | | | | | 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机产量 | | | | | 37305 台，同比增长 20.8%。2025 年全年，我国挖掘机产量 379643 台，同比增长 ...

•落实个人消费贷款最新财政贴息政策 六大行集体公告 实施细则优化升级 转自：新华财经 •国务院食安办等部门将对预制菜国家标准等公开征求意见 •国际金价突破4900美元 再创历史新高 •中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜接受新华社记者采访，他表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物 价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境，为 实现"十五五"良好开局提供有力的金融支撑。（新华社） •人民银行公告，1月23日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。（新华财经） 图片来源：中国图片社 •近日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行均已发布公告，落实个人消费贷款财政贴息政策优化相关服务。具体来看：一是 将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年12月31日。二是扩大支持范围，将信用卡账单分期业务纳入支持范围。三是拓展贴息领域，取消单笔5 万元及以上消费领域限制。四是提高贴息标准，取消单笔消费贴息金额上限 ...

2025年中央经济工作会议提出，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领 域。 潘功胜表示，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，是做强国内大 循环和推动高质量发展的战略举措。中国人民银行将加大政策支持力度，细化政策举措，不断提升金融 服务实体经济高质量发展质效。 潘功胜谈到几个方面：在扩大内需、支持消费方面，综合施策满足消费领域多样化金融需求。专设 5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，激励引导金融机构创新金融产品；持续推进支付服务便利化，提升消 费金融服务水平；实施好一次性个人信用修复政策，改善消费金融环境；支持符合条件的金融机构发行 金融债券，提升消费领域资金供给能力。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜： 继续维护好金融市场平稳运行 支持资本市场稳定发展 本报讯 （记者刘琪）1月22日，据新华社报道，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在接受采访时表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政 策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行 营造良好的货币金融环境，为实现"十五五"良好开 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][3]. Summary by Categories Overall Policy - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently utilize various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1][3]. - There is still room for further RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the PBOC will enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1][3]. Structural Policy - The PBOC has already introduced a series of monetary financial policies at the beginning of the year, optimizing and improving the policy elements of structural monetary policy tools [1][3]. - Interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools have been reduced by 0.25 percentage points [2][4]. - A dedicated 1 trillion yuan (approximately 154 billion USD) re-loan for private enterprises has been established, along with a combined risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds [2][4]. - The re-loan quota for supporting agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan, and the quota for technology innovation and technological transformation re-loans has been raised by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The support scope has been expanded to include carbon reduction support tools and re-loans for consumer services and elderly care [2][4]. Market Stability - The PBOC aims to maintain stable operation of financial markets, manage expectations, and keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [2][4]. - There will be strengthened supervision and management of the bond market, foreign exchange market, money market, bill market, and gold market [2][4]. - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [2][4]. - The PBOC will continue to utilize two monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the capital market [2][4].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Bullish on iron ore in the black building materials sector [3] Group 2 - Core view: The iron ore market has certain positive factors, and short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [3] Group 3 1. Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [3] 2. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3] - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a 6.66% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 3.70% increase year - on - year. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, an 8.30% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.53% increase year - on - year [3] - From January 12th to January 18th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1736 billion tons, a decrease of 816,000 tons from the previous period, slightly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Market Logic - Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased. Domestic mine production has increased, and port iron ore inventories continue to accumulate. The daily average hot metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week but an increase of 35,300 tons compared to the previous year [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions and set stop - losses. The support level is lowered to 780, and the resistance level is 844 [3]

近日，2026年首期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉，已连续8个月保持不变。中国人民银行授权全国银 行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日LPR为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 2026年，应不断增强宏观政策的协同性和集成效应，让政府资金、金融资源和社会资本形成合力，更精 准服务实体经济。董希淼认为，重点在于财政政策发挥"药引子"作用，通过贴息、担保等方式，为金融 资源进入特定领域降低风险、提供激励；货币政策发挥"灌溉渠"作用，金融机构用好财政政策提供的信 用支持和风险缓释，将资金精准"滴灌"到中小微企业、科技创新、提振消费等重点领域和薄弱环节。 目前，企业融资和居民信贷成本均保持低位运行。记者了解到，2018年下半年以来，人民银行累计10次 下调政策利率，还通过强化利率政策执行和监督，更好发挥存量政策效能，促进社会综合融资成本稳步 下行。2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率都在3.1%左 右，自2018年下半年以来分别下降了2.5个和2.6个百分点。 今年首次结构性"降息"也已落地。根据中国人民银行公告：自2026年1月19日起，下调再贷款、 ...

Group 1 - The report predicts that developed economies may face stagflation risks in 2026, leading to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may exceed market expectations and follow a non-linear path of "cut first, then raise" [1] - Global stock markets are expected to experience volatile upward trends in 2026, with structural differentiation driven by capital flows, valuation differences, and policy uncertainties [1] - The dollar is likely to remain relatively weak, fluctuating within the 95-100 range, while gold prices may trend upwards in the medium to long term, showing "high-level fluctuations, overall strength, and narrowing gains" [1] Group 2 - In China, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [2] - The consumption landscape is anticipated to improve significantly in 2026, driven by clear policy direction, steady income growth, and enhanced consumption infrastructure [2] - China's exports are projected to maintain stable growth due to the country's competitive advantages and increasing diversification of export markets [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate economic growth, targeted policy measures are recommended, including increased fiscal and credit support for service consumption and the implementation of an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis is placed on the role of major economic provinces in driving growth and incentivizing private enterprises to engage in technological innovation [3] - Attention is also needed to address local fiscal challenges and to implement risk warning and prevention measures in the stock market [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For manganese - silicon, supply - side开工率and production decline, manganese ore port inventory slightly accumulates, silicon - manganese inventory decreases but remains high; demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types drops, and steel mill hot metal production declines. Cost support weakens, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. [2] - For silicon - iron, the fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, both at low levels in the same period, and the inventory is neutral. With the support of semi - coke, it is relatively resistant to decline, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价is 5,786.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价is 5,556.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量is 613,881.00 hands, up 15,542.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量is 410,165.00 hands, up 1,189.00 hands. [2] - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 12,303.00 hands, down 1,024.00 hands; Silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 27,919.00 hands, up 697.00 hands. [2] - SM5 - 3月合约价差is 38.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF4 - 3月合约价差is - 12.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单is 35,895.00 sheets, down 248.00 sheets; SF仓单is 0.00 sheets, down 10,007.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,370.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan. [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,680.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. [2] - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly) is 5,735.00 yuan/ton, up 9.17 yuan; SF主力合约基差 (daily) is - 256.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan. [2] - SM主力合约基差 (daily) is - 116.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of South African high - iron manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 31.55 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) is 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at Tianjin Port is 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.30 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) is 820.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly) is 421.80 million tons, up 4.30 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 36.06%, down 0.75%; silicon - iron enterprise开工率 (weekly) is 29.21%, down 0.42%. [2] - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly) is 190,575.00 tons, down 455.00 tons; silicon - iron supply (weekly) is 98,700.00 tons, down 400.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 372,800.00 tons, down 9,700.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory (half - monthly) is 63,750.00 tons, down 5,160.00 tons. [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.52 days, down 0.32 days; silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (monthly, days) is 15.41 days, down 0.39 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon in five major steel types (weekly) is 115,815.00 tons, down 84.00 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (weekly) is 18,481.70 tons, down 27.10 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The开工率of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 78.84%, down 0.47%; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill blast furnaces (weekly) is 85.48%, down 0.56%. [2] - Crude steel production (monthly) is 6,818.00 million tons, down 169.10 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and crack down on low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. [2] - Mysteel: A steel mill in East China has tendered for silicon - manganese at a price of 5,830 yuan/ton, with a cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 5,720 yuan in Jiangsu and 5,650 yuan in Tianjin. [2]

Market Performance - On January 20, the three major indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,044 billion, an increase of 720 billion compared to Monday, indicating strong market support[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aiming to create new demand through new supply[1] - The NDRC announced a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to promote price recovery, with a focus on the interaction between economic growth and price increases[5] Industry Trends - The sectors with the highest inflow of main funds on January 20 were power, infrastructure, and chemical products, while the sectors with the highest outflow were communication equipment, batteries, and military electronics[4] - The NDRC is planning to promote significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the digital economy expected to reach 49 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP[7] Consumer Policies - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended until the end of 2026, allowing eligible residents to enjoy interest subsidies on qualifying consumption during this period[9] - A national unified subsidy standard for vehicle scrapping and replacement will be implemented, optimizing fund allocation based on consumption potential and policy execution[8] Investment Initiatives - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been announced, with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting loans for small and micro enterprises[12] - The NDRC is studying the establishment of a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning[14]