Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The national general public budget revenue for January to May is 96,623 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Total tax revenue is 79,156 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1] - Non-tax revenue amounts to 17,467 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - Central government budget revenue stands at 41,486 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year [1] - Local government budget revenue is 55,137 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Expenditure Overview - Total general public budget expenditure for the same period is 112,953 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [1] - Central government budget expenditure is 15,792 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - Local government budget expenditure is 97,161 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

Revenue Summary - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-February. March saw a monthly increase turning positive [1] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 47,450 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 12,739 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][3] - March's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, primarily driven by a narrowing decline in tax revenue [1][3] Expenditure Summary - In the first quarter, national general public budget expenditure reached 72,815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with March's growth accelerating to 5.7% [2] - The expenditure progress for the first quarter was 24.5%, higher than the average of 23.7% over the past five years, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal measures [2] - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment at 13,570 billion yuan (up 7.9%), education at 11,249 billion yuan (up 7.8%), and health at 5,848 billion yuan (up 2.2%) [5] Tax Revenue Performance - In March, major tax revenues showed improvement, with VAT increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and corporate income tax rising by 16.0%, indicating potential marginal improvement in corporate profitability [4] - Non-tax revenue growth was driven by dividends from central financial enterprises and local asset management, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4] - The significant decline of 58.5% in personal income tax was attributed to the timing of year-end bonuses and a high base from the previous year [4] Government Fund Overview - In the first quarter, government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure was 19,769 billion yuan, up 11.1% [6] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights fell by 15.9% to 6,849 billion yuan, with related expenditures also declining by 11% [6]

Revenue Insights - In the first two months of 2025, national public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue growth slowed significantly from 94% in December to 11%[3] - Individual income tax saw a substantial increase of 27% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from 2024[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure reached 45,096 billion yuan in January-February 2025, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth[4] - Expenditure in the first two months accounted for approximately 15.2% of the annual target, slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the average of the past three years[4] - Social welfare and technology expenditures grew at a faster pace, with education and social security spending increasing by 8% and 7% respectively[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The annual budget draft anticipates a 3.7% growth in tax revenue for 2025, although the first two months did not meet this target[4] - The government aims to reduce reliance on non-tax revenue, indicating a shift in fiscal strategy[4] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with 9,148 billion yuan issued by March 24, 2025, representing about 20% of the annual target[5] Market Implications - The decline in land transfer revenue, down 16% year-on-year, suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate market despite previous improvements[5] - The focus of fiscal spending is shifting towards "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," indicating a strategic pivot in government priorities[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in local fiscal reports, highlighting the income structure and expenditure situation for 2024 and the budget expectations for 2025, providing insights into potential fiscal "bottlenecks" and revenue expectations for local governments [1][24]. Group 1: 2024 Local General Fiscal Situation - In 2024, local general fiscal revenue growth reached 1.7%, higher than the national average of 1.3%, primarily due to increased efforts in asset disposal and resource mobilization [2][8]. - Local general fiscal expenditure growth was 3.2%, lower than the national rate of 3.6%, attributed to sufficient central carryover funds supporting national fiscal spending [2][8]. - Local non-tax revenue saw a significant increase of approximately 12.5%, while tax revenue experienced an average decline of about 2% [2][9]. Group 2: 2024 Local Government Fund Performance - Local government fund revenue decreased by 13.5% in 2024, with a slight expenditure growth of 0.4% [3][12]. - The decline in land transfer income, which fell by 16%, significantly impacted government fund revenues, with 19 out of 25 provinces reporting decreases [13][12]. - Some regions compensated for the decline in land transfer income through project construction and investment revenues, with notable increases in specific funds in provinces like Guizhou [14][12]. Group 3: 2025 Local Fiscal Budget Goals - Local governments have raised their 2025 general fiscal revenue growth target to 3%, up from 1.7% in 2024, mainly due to expected tax recovery [5][18]. - Tax revenue is projected to grow by an average of 3.9%, while non-tax revenue is expected to decline by 11.6% [5][18]. - Local government fund revenue is anticipated to increase by 1.6%, while expenditure is expected to decrease by 6.5% [5][20].