1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various commodities in the chemical and agricultural sectors showed different trends on February 4, 2026, compared to the previous day [4]. - The macro - economic news includes rumors of VAT rate hikes in some industries, major corporate mergers and IPO plans, and policy directions in different fields [6][7]. - For different commodity futures, the market conditions are affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and macro - economic factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, A - shares showed a general upward trend on February 3, while欧美 stocks declined. Different sectors had different performances, and trading strategies are suggested for different investors [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry - On February 4, 2026, most chemical futures showed price increases, such as natural rubber with a 0.803% increase, 20 - number rubber with a 0.955% increase, and asphalt with a 0.997% increase. Only PVC and caustic soda showed price decreases, with PVC down 0.335% and caustic soda down 0.863% [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economic News - Rumors of VAT rate hikes in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, especially in the game industry from 6% to 32%, turned out to be false [6]. - SpaceX merged with xAI, with the combined company valued at $1.25 trillion, and an expected IPO later this year [6]. - 30 provinces in China have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5% growth [6]. - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are in the process of going public, and they may list on the stock market intensively in the next one or two years [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes technological breakthroughs in future industries such as 6G, quantum technology, etc. [7]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a financial technology promotion blueprint and will launch four flagship projects [7]. - There were disputes about OpenAI's attitude towards Nvidia's AI chips, but Nvidia's investment plan in OpenAI is still progressing [7]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Waymo completed a new round of $16 billion in financing, with a post - investment valuation of $126 billion [8]. 3.3 Main Commodity Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The supply - demand situation is loose both at home and abroad. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to be cautious when short - selling and focus on short - selling opportunities after a rebound [11]. - **Corn**: The market faces seasonal selling pressure before the Spring Festival and weakening demand. The price is in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 2275 yuan and the lower support at 2250 yuan [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The lower support levels are 8000 yuan and 7900 yuan, and the upper pressure is 8100 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is temporarily tightened before the Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to remain volatile [11][13]. - **Egg**: The spot market is stable, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, seeking downward support [13]. - **Jujube**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. The downstream demand is fragmented, and the futures market is seeking downward support [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply has a long - term bullish factor of expected yield reduction, but the high inventory suppresses the upward space. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile state. It is advisable to operate cautiously on the long side, with the support range at 14500 - 14600 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side changes on prices [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal in the production areas have declined, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises is coming to an end. The prices are expected to fluctuate and run [13]. - **Log**: The price is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile state, but the upward space is limited. It is advisable to adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the upper pressure at 805 yuan and the lower support at 795 yuan [13][15]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and run weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or try short - selling lightly when the price is high, with the upper pressure at 5300 yuan/ton and the lower support at 5250 yuan/ton [15]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply - demand relationship is in a weak balance. It is recommended to wait and see. If the price effectively breaks below 4030 yuan, the downward space may be opened [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper price is under pressure due to market uncertainties and the rising US dollar index. The aluminum supply is increasing, the demand is showing signs of stabilization, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, but the structural contradiction remains. The market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to macro - risks [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation, waiting for new market drivers [20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand is weakening as the holiday approaches, and the steel prices are expected to be under slight pressure and run weakly [20]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The overall fundamentals are relatively healthy, but the market lacks expected drivers. The prices are expected to run weakly with a narrowing range, and the cost provides certain support. It is advisable to have a callback - and - long - biased trading idea and pay attention to the macro - atmosphere [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounded strongly after a sharp decline, showing strong support below. It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile state in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with the upper pressure at 151880 yuan and the lower support at 137520 yuan [20][22]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On February 3, A - shares showed a general upward trend, and different stock index futures and options had different performance indicators. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can hold short - wide - straddle positions to short - sell volatility. The stock market is likely to fluctuate in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to structural opportunities [22]. - **Stock Market**: A - shares closed higher on February 3, with active performance in some concept sectors. The欧美 stock market declined, and technology stocks were under pressure. The trading strategy is to participate in the rebound lightly when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline, not to chase the rise, and to realize profits when the price rises [22][23].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/4 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘多数收跌，贵金属走势分化，沪银跌 16.71%，钯涨 8.62%； 基本金属跌幅居前，沪锡跌 6.7%；能源品全部下跌，原油跌 4.93%。贵金属、基 本金属夜盘反弹，沪银涨 5.93%，沪金涨 4.2%，沪锡涨 6.64%。 2.国际贵 ...

【LYZZ】商业航天业务空间更新 # "材料-部件-系统"全链条解决方案，覆盖结构、热控、电源等多个关键环节。 占 Starlink 单星成本的30%。 成功切入 SpaceX/Starlink 核心供应链，为星链 V3 等型号批量供货 1）太阳翼PI/CPI膜模切单星价值量 #20-30万元。 ☄# 配套单星价值量150万元。 占 Starlink 单星成本的30%。 成功切入 SpaceX/Starlink 核心供应链，为星链 V3 等型号批量供货 1）太阳翼PI/ 【LYZZ】商业航天业务空间更新 # "材料-部件-系统"全链条解决方案，覆盖结构、热控、电源等多个关键环节。 每GW太空算力可配套300亿元、100GW空间3万亿！ ☄# 配套单星价值量150万元。 每GW太空算力可配套300亿元、100GW空间3万亿！ PI/CPI膜是柔性太阳翼的关键基板与保护材料，具有轻量化、高耐候、抗辐照的特性。 2）碳纤维框架结构件：单星价值量 #15-20万元，原丝外购，后续可能会投资上游。 3）热管理解决方案：单星价值量(Starlink V3 50-60kw)约 # 100万元。 量产单相液冷、3DVC、热管 ...

Group 1 - The company, Runbei Aerospace, has recently shown active performance, achieving a 10-day streak of five consecutive trading limits [1] - On the latest trading day, the stock reached a limit-up at 9:32 AM with a transaction volume of 1.60 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.34% [1] - The company is involved in commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and aerospace material distribution, with its subsidiary focusing on the research and production of advanced composite materials for aerospace [1] Group 2 - Runbei Aerospace has provided materials and supporting services to general aviation enterprises, continuously expanding its low-altitude economy business chain [1] - As a leading distributor of aerospace materials in China, the company maintains a stock of over 7,000 types of materials, serving multiple domestic transportation airlines [1] - A recent joint release by ten departments on the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system has clarified development goals, contributing to the active state of the commercial aerospace sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market trends. It shows that the macro - economy has certain fluctuations, the commodity market has policy - induced changes and price movements, and the financial and stock markets are also affected by multiple factors such as policies, market supply and demand, and international situations. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew 4.5% year - on - year, lower than 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In December 2025, social financing scale was 22,075 billion yuan, lower than 35,299 billion yuan in the previous month and 28,537 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The "14th" central No. 1 document on "Three Rural Issues" was released, aiming at rural revitalization [2] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin ratios and price limit ranges of various commodity futures contracts [2][3] - On February 3, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis and 30 had negative basis [3] - CME's average daily contract trading volume in January increased 15% year - on - year to a record 29.6 million contracts [3] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.83% and COMEX silver up 10.27% [5] - Global alumina production in 2025 reached 144.98 million tons, up 5.1% from 2024 [6] - Chile's copper production is expected to grow 3.7% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, with the average price in 2026 expected to be $4.95 per pound [7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel and Minerals - Indonesian miners suspended thermal coal spot exports after the government proposed to cut coal production [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [10] - Four public fund companies warned of significant premiums in the secondary market trading prices of their crude oil and petroleum - themed funds [10] - The U.S. plans to issue licenses for companies to exploit Venezuelan oil [10] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Ukraine's white sugar production in 2025 dropped to 1.72 million tons, a 4% decrease [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 3, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan [13] - On February 4, the central bank will conduct 800 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [13] - In January 2026, the central bank's MLF had a net injection of 700 billion yuan, and PSL had a net injection of 174.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Important News - The 2026 central No. 1 document focused on rural revitalization, including financial support policies [15] - Rumors about VAT rate adjustments in the game and financial industries were untrue [15][16] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries [16] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank called for promoting the reasonable growth and balanced distribution of credit [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mainly volatile, with treasury bond futures mostly rising [22] - The exchange bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds rising and some falling [22][23] - The中证 Convertible Bond Index rose 2.63% [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 151 points, and the RMB central parity rate was raised 87 points [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.22%, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - income said to focus on the expansion of free - trade offshore bonds and the possibility of using dim - sum bonds to take over free - trade bonds [28] - CITIC Securities expected that dividend insurance products and incremental funds from bank deposits would support 2026 premium income [28] 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 4, 158 bonds will be listed, 163 bonds will be issued, 127 bonds will make payments, and 55 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% [31] - The Hong Kong stock market's main indexes recovered, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.22% [31] - The CSRC chairman met with the head of the UK's FCA to discuss regulatory cooperation [31] - In January, the number of new A - share accounts reached 4.9158 million, a 15 - month high [31]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08% at 4064.68 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.39% at 14072.41 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.8% at 3298.32 points [1] - The precious metals sector continued to strengthen, with Hunan Gold rising over 7% and other stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Hengbang Shares also seeing gains [1] - The storage chip sector opened lower, with Shen Kangjia A hitting the daily limit down, and other companies like Puran Shares and Lankai Technology also declining [1] Company News - Cambrian Technology issued a statement denying rumors about recent organizational meetings and confirmed that it has not provided revenue guidance [3] - Xuguang Electronics plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan for various projects and to supplement working capital [4] - First Automobile Works plans to use up to 10 billion yuan of its own funds for low-risk financial products [4] - Nidec has repurchased 15.99 million A-shares for a total of 4.386 billion yuan as of January 31, 2026 [4] - Guizhou Moutai has repurchased 329,800 shares for 451 million yuan, totaling 416,900 shares and 571 million yuan by the end of January [4] Industry Insights - The central government's policy supports the integration of artificial intelligence and agriculture, aiming to enhance agricultural technology innovation [7] - The global AI investment boom is expected to drive demand for power infrastructure in data centers, with an estimated addition of 106 GW from 2025 to 2030 [7] - The chemical industry is showing signs of gradual recovery, although it remains volatile due to macroeconomic factors [7] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Securities noted that while A-shares experienced high volatility, there remains resilience in the funding environment, with a significant reduction in net outflows from ETFs [8] - CITIC Securities highlighted that capacity pricing could enhance the investment returns of energy storage projects significantly [8] - CITIC Jinpu stated that the global commercial space industry is entering a new phase, with increased competition and collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises [8]

Core Insights - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode technology, marking a significant advancement in the commercialization of solid-state batteries [1] - Major players like CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan High-Tech are accelerating their own solid-state and semi-solid battery developments, while European automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW are also actively investing in this technology [1] - The Chinese government has prioritized solid-state battery research in its "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy technology innovation, with local governments providing funds and subsidies to promote industry clustering [1] Industry Developments - Solid-state batteries are expanding beyond the electric vehicle sector into low-altitude economy and robotics, with applications in commercial aerospace growing rapidly [1] - The unique properties of solid-state batteries, such as the absence of liquid electrolytes and resistance to extreme temperatures and radiation, make them highly suitable for aerospace applications [1] - NASA has identified all-solid-state batteries as a key energy direction for future aviation and deep space exploration [1] Market Outlook - 2027 is seen as a critical milestone for the solid-state battery industry, with expectations for a gradual transition from semi-solid to fully solid-state batteries by 2030 [2] - The market for solid-state batteries is projected to reach 614 GWh by 2030, with a forecasted demand exceeding 740 GWh by 2035, representing a thousandfold increase from 2026 [2] - The recent breakthrough in dry electrode technology by Tesla is expected to enhance the valuation of related sectors in the A-share market, particularly in materials, equipment, and integration fields [2]

Group 1: US Manufacturing and Trade Developments - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January recorded at 52.6%, significantly above the expected 48.5%, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percentage points, the fastest growth since 2022 [2] - Key sub-indices showed strong performance, with the New Orders Index at 57.1%, up nearly 10 points from the previous value of 47.7%, and the Employment Index reaching a one-year high of 48.1% [2] - The US and India reached a trade agreement reducing tariffs, with the US lowering its "reciprocal tariff" on India from 25% to 18%, while India will also reduce its tariffs on US goods, potentially increasing procurement of over $500 billion in US products [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate and Housing Market Initiatives - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental projects, with financial support from local banks, aiming to stabilize the second-hand housing market [6] - Other cities like Hangzhou and Haikou are also implementing similar policies to support the real estate market, focusing on acquiring existing properties to convert into affordable housing [6] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Market Reactions - SpaceX announced the acquisition of AI startup xAI, with a projected valuation of $1.25 trillion, aiming to address the growing demand for computational power and energy in advanced AI systems [7] - Zhou Dasheng plans to engage in gold leasing business, allowing transactions up to 80% of its gold inventory, which is a common practice in the jewelry industry to mitigate price volatility [8][9] - The Hang Seng Tech Index briefly entered a technical bear market, dropping over 20% from its peak, influenced by market rumors regarding tax rate increases for internet companies [10][11] Group 4: Market Performance and Sentiment - On February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices saw gains, recovering from previous declines, with significant trading volume and a broad increase in stock prices across various sectors [14][15] - The market experienced volatility due to unfounded rumors affecting investor sentiment, but quickly rebounded as these rumors were debunked [15]

"十五五"规划建议中提出，加快建设航天强国，并提出加快航空航天等战略性新兴产业集群发展。"十五五"开局之年，全国工业和信息化工作 会议提出，2026年要打造航空航天等新兴支柱产业。1月底，人民日报刊文《2026，一个可期待的商业航天大年》。 接连释放出的信号，让2026年的商业航天发展备受关注与期待。如今，各地也争相布局。截至2月1日，超20个省份已召开地方两会，多地尚未 披露政府工作报告全文，从已披露的信息来看，其中约半数的省份在政府工作报告中直接或间接布局商业航天相关产业，广东、山东、浙江、 河南、北京、辽宁、天津等多地明确提及航空航天或商业航天。 在各地两会的部署中，"全链条"与"产业集群"是两大关键词。例如，广东提出，2026年，全链条推动低空与商业航天等领域关键核心技术攻关 取得突破。浙江提出，着力打造新兴支柱产业，支持航空航天等新兴产业集群发展。各地的部署，切中的正是我国商业航天产业协同尚显不 足、关键技术存在短板等痛点。 推进"全链条"布局 根据2025年12月底披露的《中国商业航天产业研究报告》，中国商业航天产业规模预计在2025年达到2.5万亿—2.8万亿元，年均复合增长率超 20%，商业航 ...

晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2026 年 02 月 04 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 4067.74 | 1.29 | | 深证成指 | 14127.11 | 2.19 | | 创业板指 | 3324.89 | 1.86 | | 科创 50 | 1471.07 | 1.39 | | 北证 50 | 1549.51 | 3.27 | | 沪深 300 | 4660.11 | 1.18 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 上证指数 沪深300 | 黄红卫 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 | | | huanghongwei@hnchasing.com | | | 周舒鹏 | 研究助理 | zhoushupeng@hnchasing.com 晨会聚焦 一、财信研究观点 【债券研究】债券市场综述 三、行业及公司动态 【行业动态】2025 年中国 ...