固态电池是当下最热门的赛道之一，在新能源一骑绝尘，最近也越来越多企业发布相关进 展，有的辟谣，有的否认，有的强调布局。 主机厂 （1）上汽集团：全固态电池将在 2027 年装车 6 月 12 日，上汽集团亮相香港车展，表示固态电池将在 2027 年装车。 4 月 10日， 2025 上 汽之夜活动中上汽集团总裁贾健旭表示，上汽新一代固态电池将于今年底在全新 MG4 上量产应 用； 2027 年，上汽首款全固态电池"光启电池"将落地。 （2）长安汽车： 2025 年推出全固态电池样车、 2027 年逐步量产 6 月 12 日， 2025 香港车展上，长安汽车高管宣布，公司将加速推出以金钟罩全 固态电池为代表的下一代电池，并将在 2025 年底实现全固态电池功能样车首发， 2027年推进 全固态电池逐步量产。 长安金钟罩电池能量密度达 400wh/kg ，续航能力超1500km ，安全性 可提升 70% 。 电池厂 6 月 6 日，宁德时代官微发布， 21C 创新实验室欧阳楚英、王瀚森团队独立完成 的锂金属电池研究成果发表于国际顶级期刊《自然·纳米技术》， 标志着宁德时代 基础科研能力获纳米技术领域最高水平认可。 ...

Core Insights - The domestic energy storage and battery market is experiencing significant growth, with May's installed capacity reaching 23.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 679% and a month-on-month increase of 427% [1] - The sales of energy storage and other batteries in May reached 36 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 69% and a month-on-month increase of 15% [1] - The lithium battery sector is seeing price declines, with lithium carbonate priced at 59,600 CNY/ton, down 7% from the previous month, and lithium hydroxide at 62,400 CNY/ton, down 5% [1] Industry Changes - The solid-state battery technology is transitioning from pilot production to mass production, with key companies receiving MWh scale orders and planning GWh scale production lines [1][6] - The solid-state battery is expected to enter the vehicle testing phase between 2026 and 2027, marking a significant technological advancement in the industry [3] - The overall performance of the lithium battery sector has been active since June 2025, with over half of the segments outperforming major indices [2] Market Trends - The sales of new energy vehicles in May reached 1.22 million units in China, showing a year-on-year increase of 33% and a month-on-month increase of 17% [1][4] - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to May reached 4.98 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% [1] - The market for energy storage in China is driven by the "531 installation rush," leading to a significant increase in installed capacity [4] Investment Recommendations - The lithium battery sector is expected to shift from broad market-driven growth to structural opportunities led by technological breakthroughs and new application fields in 2025 [7] - Key companies recommended for investment include CATL, EVE Energy, Keda Industrial, and Xiamen Tungsten [7]

2025 年 7 月 2 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 6 月洞察：国内储能呈现抢装潮，固态设备迎中试交付 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：6 月 23 日，碳酸锂报价 5.96 万元/吨，较上月下降 7%；氢氧化锂报价 6.24 万元/吨，较上月下降 5%。 2）整车：5 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 122 万辆，同/环比+33%/+17%；1～5 月累计批发 498 万辆，同比+41%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 6 月以来，锂电板块表现较为活跃，超半数环节跑赢沪深 300 和上证 50 指数。三元正极板块实现领涨，涨幅 为 15%；部分板块呈现下跌态势，锂电隔膜、汽车零部件、新能源车板块下跌幅度分别为-3%、-3%、-6%。本月锂电相 关板块多数环节月度成交额继上月大幅下降后开始快速回升，主要系固态电池等板块资金交易活跃。本月多数锂电相 关板块处在 3 年历史估值分位底部，市场对锂电板块关注度回暖，未来存在进一步估值修复空间。 本月研究专题：政策加码制 ...

Overall Viewpoint - Wind power: The price of wind turbine units is stabilizing, and the trend towards larger units along with cost reductions in components will drive continuous improvement in profitability for the turbine segment through 2026. The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, as wind power has a favorable output curve, leading to a potential recovery in wind power development and power station sales. Short-term pressure is expected from June wind power bidding and Q2 performance, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, and expectations for improvement in related indicators are forming [2]. Component Segment - Attention is drawn to the trend of larger turbine units, particularly in the bearing segment, and investment opportunities in European offshore wind products. The current timing is crucial for performance realization [3]. Photovoltaics - This week, the price of polysilicon futures has rebounded due to news factors. After experiencing internal competition policies in Q4 2024 and a rush for installations in Q1 2025, the photovoltaic sector's debt repayment ability did not continue to deteriorate during Q1 2025. However, starting in May 2025, production and prices in the photovoltaic sector have declined, further worsening the sector's debt repayment and profitability. It is anticipated that supply or demand-side support policies will strengthen in the next phase, with a focus on BC cells, perovskite, silicon materials, and low-PB integrated companies [3]. Solid-State Batteries - The market for solid-state batteries has expanded to include copper foil, separators, and other segments, which are currently at low price levels and in distress, but may not have reversed yet. In the short term, there is a risk of a pullback in the solid-state battery sector. However, in the medium term, battery manufacturers are actively advancing semi-solid production lines and full solid-state experiments, leading to increased capital expenditure in the solid-state battery sector, supported by policies. Continuous attention is recommended for solid-state battery front and mid-process equipment, lithium sulfide, solid-state electrolyte membranes, and dry-process positive electrode technologies [3]. Energy Storage - There is a consensus in the market regarding the favorable outlook for large-scale energy storage in Europe and overseas commercial storage. However, there are differing views on the profitability improvement and demand rhythm for domestic large-scale storage following the 136 document. The good bidding data for large-scale storage in May-June is related to the "531" rush for installations and independent energy storage "land grabbing." The mid-term profitability improvement for large-scale storage relies on the construction of the electricity market and improved trading flexibility, while the peak-valley price difference remains cyclical. In the short term, large-scale storage still requires substantial subsidies, but the commercial model is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of large-scale storage bidding data changes in the second half of the year [4][5].

Market Performance - On June 30, the A-share market recorded a trading volume of 1.49 trillion RMB, showing a slight decrease from the previous trading day, but market sentiment remained positive [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.83%, the ChiNext Index saw a growth of 1.35%, and the Northbound 50 Index achieved a gain of 0.52% [1] Half-Year Review - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese stock market exhibited strong growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.76% and the Northbound 50 Index soaring by 39.45%, reaching a historical high [3] - The Guozheng 2000 Index also recorded over 10% growth, indicating strong performance in small and mid-cap stocks [3] - More than 3,700 stocks in the market achieved positive returns in the first half, with over 100 stocks seeing gains exceeding 100% [3] - Union Chemical emerged as the top performer in the chemical sector, boasting a remarkable 440% increase [3] - Key investment themes such as AI large models, humanoid robots, new consumption trends, innovative drug development, and solid-state battery technology attracted significant capital [3] - Nearly twenty bank stocks reached historical highs in the first half, reflecting strong performance in the financial sector [3] Global Market Context - Chinese assets demonstrated strong competitiveness on the international stage, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20% in the first half, ranking third among major global indices, following the South Korean Composite Index and the German DAX Index [5] - Despite this growth, the Hang Seng Index remains undervalued, with a rolling P/E ratio below 11 times, around the 46th percentile historically; the P/B ratio stands at 1.1 times, approximately at the 30th percentile; and the dividend yield is close to 4%, around the 80th percentile historically [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ningde Times is collaborating on the development of a civil electric passenger aircraft project, adhering to aviation-grade standards and safety requirements [2] Group 1: Battery Technology - The company has introduced the "concentrated state battery" in 2023, which is a type of semi-solid battery with a gel-like electrolyte, enhancing mechanical stability and ionic transport performance [2] - The maximum energy density of the single cell can reach 500Wh/kg, representing an over 40% increase compared to traditional lithium batteries with a maximum energy density of 350Wh/kg using ternary cathode materials [2] - The semi-solid gel state of the electrolyte reduces fluidity, significantly improving safety by avoiding thermal runaway risks associated with traditional liquid lithium-ion batteries [2] - The battery integrates advanced technologies such as ultra-high specific energy cathodes, new anodes, and separator membranes, providing excellent charge-discharge performance and good cycle life [2][3] Group 2: Market Applications - The battery can be offered in various forms, including soft pack and square shapes, with the soft pack form exhibiting the best performance, suitable for both electric vehicles and targeting the electric aviation market [3]

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Group 1 - Solid-state batteries are entering a critical development phase, with companies like BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, and FAW Group producing 60Ah automotive-grade cells with energy densities of 350-400Wh/kg and a cycle life of 1000 times, ahead of the previous expectations by about six months [1][2] - Solid-state batteries utilize solid electrolytes instead of liquid ones, enhancing safety, energy density, and environmental adaptability, making them suitable for electric vehicles and energy storage [2][4] - The energy density of solid-state batteries allows for a driving range of up to 1000 kilometers on a single charge, addressing winter range reduction issues with operational temperature ranges from -40°C to 150°C [2] Group 2 - The current development stage of solid-state batteries includes classifications such as liquid, semi-solid, quasi-solid, and all-solid, with semi-solid technology being prioritized in China due to the challenges of all-solid interfaces [4][7] - Companies like Qingtao Energy, Huineng Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium are leading the production of semi-solid batteries, while Japanese and Korean firms are focusing on all-solid battery research [7][8] Group 3 - Guoxuan High-Tech is accelerating its solid-state battery industrialization, having launched two new products at its global technology conference, including the "Guan" quasi-solid battery with a density of over 300Wh/kg and a range of 1000km [16][18] - The company has also made significant progress in the industrialization of its "Jinshi" all-solid battery, achieving energy densities of 350/280Wh/kg and beginning road tests [18][20] Group 4 - Honggong Technology is emerging as a key supplier of production equipment for solid-state batteries, focusing on dry electrode processes, which are expected to become the mainstream method in the future [22] - The company has established a joint venture to develop equipment that addresses the challenges of solid-state battery production, with its devices already integrated into the supply chains of major firms like Qingtao Energy and Ningde Times [22] Group 5 - TianNai Technology specializes in carbon nanotube conductive agents, which are crucial for solid-state batteries to enhance ionic conductivity and reduce internal resistance [24][27] - The company holds a 46.7% market share in the domestic carbon nanotube conductive paste market, significantly higher than its competitors, and is planning to scale up production to meet domestic demand [29]

Group 1: Core Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to experience significant growth in the second half of the year, particularly in the military and solid-state battery industries, which are seen as key investment hotspots [1] - The military sector is a national priority, with increased focus on asset securitization and strategic upgrades, especially in light of the upcoming 80th anniversary of the Anti-Japanese War parade, which will showcase advanced military equipment [3] - The solid-state battery industry is entering a golden development period, driven by its advantages such as high energy density and safety, making it a core power source for electric vehicles and energy storage [4] Group 2: Key Companies in Military and Solid-State Battery Sectors - Zhongke Electric has made significant technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and has military applications, showcasing strong market competitiveness [5] - Greeenmei has achieved major advancements in solid-state battery materials and has established long-term supply agreements with leading companies, while also expanding into military applications [6] - Youyan New Materials is the only domestic producer of high-purity lithium sulfide and has developed technologies that enhance battery life, with military certifications for its products [6] - A certain holding subsidiary is noted for its comprehensive technology layout in solid-state battery materials and has a strong market position, indicating potential for future growth in both military and civilian sectors [6]

Summary of Solid-State Battery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solid-state battery equipment industry is entering a new cycle, with a recovery in liquid battery demand expected in 2025, leading to a projected 50% year-on-year growth in orders for lithium battery equipment companies, with some companies seeing orders double [1][4] - Companies such as Galaxy, XianDao Intelligent, and XingYun Co. are performing well in the solid-state battery equipment sector, with positive second-quarter performance expectations and anticipated deliveries of related equipment [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - The transition to solid-state battery technology will drive a new wave of growth, with full solid-state battery solutions needing to address cost, safety, and energy density [1][7] - The production process for solid-state batteries is shifting towards dry processing, with increased precision requirements for dry rolling, which is expected to increase the number of rolls from four to as many as sixteen [1][9] - The demand for stacking machines has become essential in solid-state battery production, leading to increased needs for front-end technologies such as glue frame printing and composite transfer [1][11] - Isostatic pressing equipment is being utilized to enhance the contact between solid-state battery components, improving density and reducing lithium dendrite growth [1][12] Equipment and Technology Developments - The initial charging and discharging processes are expected to see a 3 to 5 times increase in the formation and capacity stages, necessitating higher performance testing equipment [2][14] - The solid-state battery equipment sector exhibits significant elasticity, with the value of equipment for solid-state batteries expected to at least double compared to liquid batteries during initial mass production [3] Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery industry is anticipated to see substantial advancements in 2025, with a recovery phase for liquid batteries and a new cycle for lithium battery equipment driven by technological updates [4][16] - Key companies to watch in the lithium-ion and solid-state lithium-ion supply chain include Nako, Honggong, and leading firms in traditional and emerging solid-state fields such as Lianying Laser and Galaxy Technology [15] Material Developments - Lithium sulfide and metal anodes are identified as strong long-term material development directions, with significant market potential if production costs can be reduced [17][19] - The market for lithium sulfide is projected to be lucrative, with potential profits reaching 1.5 to 2 billion yuan at lower price points [19] - The development of lithium metal anodes is gaining attention, with breakthroughs expected to allow their application in semi-solid and liquid batteries [20] Additional Insights - Emulsions as a cost-reduction strategy and rigid skeleton membranes for electrolyte film processes are emerging as potential growth areas [21] - The performance of ternary cathode materials is improving due to solid-state technology, with companies actively progressing in high-pressure samples [22]