Group 1 - The North American shipping rates have shown a slight rebound after four weeks of decline, with the rate from Shanghai to the West Coast reaching $2,194/FEU, a 5.0% increase from the previous period, but still down 60% from the peak on June 6 [1] - The ongoing "tariff war" has become a focal point in the market, with the U.S. extending the delay on "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, and imposing new tariffs on multiple countries, including a 50% tariff on copper [1] - The overall demand for shipping is weakening, and the oversupply of capacity on trans-Pacific routes is driving rates down, with shipping companies expected to cut capacity by 25% in August [2][3] Group 2 - The shipping rates for the U.S. West Coast have dropped significantly, with some smaller players quoting as low as $1,400/FEU, while the majority of shipping alliances maintain rates around $1,700 to $1,800/FEU [3] - The first half of the year saw a 9.3% year-on-year decline in China's total import and export value with the U.S., with a 20.8% drop in the second quarter due to the "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - The European shipping rates have seen a slight decline, with the rate from Shanghai to European ports dropping by 0.1% and 7.0% for Mediterranean ports, while the overall economic recovery in Europe remains stable [5][6] Group 3 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, with Maersk resuming services at Haifa Port, while risks in the Red Sea region are increasing due to recent attacks on vessels [5] - The market for Asia-Europe shipping rates is expected to rise in the coming weeks due to operational inefficiencies and increased congestion at European ports [7] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU imports starting August 1 are likely to disrupt trade flows and strengthen cooperation between China and the EU [6]

消息人士：欧洲央行监管机构告知银行，要把对其他国家的直接和间接敞口视为地缘政治风险的一部 分。 ...

欧洲央行银行监管委员会主席布赫：在2026年的主题压力测试中，我们将要求银行评估哪些特定企业的 地缘政治风险情景可能会严重影响其偿付能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, has indicated that there are increasing economic and geopolitical risks, alongside persistent global debt vulnerabilities [1] Group 1 - The emergence of more economic risks has been noted, suggesting a potential impact on market stability [1] - Geopolitical risks are also becoming more pronounced, which could affect global economic conditions [1] - The level of global debt vulnerability remains high, indicating ongoing concerns regarding financial stability [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Although recently affected by rising oil prices and positive domestic commodity sentiment, its rebound is under pressure due to postponed domestic plant maintenance, recovering overseas supply, potential PTA plant maintenance, and weakening terminal demand. However, considering future PTA plant startups, its supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it has support at low levels. The PX09 is expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA: In July, its supply - demand is expected to be weak due to general plant maintenance, expected new plant startups, strong downstream polyester plant production cuts, and weakening terminal demand. Its absolute price rebound is under pressure, and it is expected to trade in the range of 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: With the increase in supply from domestic and overseas plants, its supply is turning loose. Although the polyester and terminal loads are declining, the cost side is strong, and its price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Its absolute price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is expected to trade in the range of 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle - chip: Its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts of bottle - chip plants and downstream follow - up [2]. Polyolefin Industry PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend, with compressed weighted profits. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. In July, the supply pressure is not large, and the de - stocking situation has improved. There is a lack of strong driving forces for both, and they should be traded within a range. The LP spread can be taken profit at around 250 [7]. Urea Industry The core drivers from the fundamental and macro - news aspects are the market confidence boost brought by the Indian tender price. The short - term market has expectations for export benefits. With support from agricultural and industrial demand and partial alleviation of supply pressure by maintenance plans, the short - term market shows an upward - fluctuating trend. However, the sustainability of demand is to be observed, and long positions should not be over - chased [10]. Crude Oil Industry The main logic for the oil price increase is geopolitical risks and supply interruption expectations. Although the EIA inventory is still accumulating, the refined oil crack spread is strong, and refinery processing demand exists. The oil price is likely to run strongly in the short term, and the WTI is expected to trade in the range of [64, 70] dollars/barrel, Brent in [67, 72] dollars/barrel, and SC in [510, 535] yuan/barrel [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand contradiction is limited. High profits stimulate high production, and the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. However, the trading activity between alumina plants and traders has increased, and sporadic premium transactions have occurred. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [40]. - PVC: The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, but the supply - demand pattern has entered the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. Although the fundamentals are weak, it is difficult to see a sharp price decline in the short term due to the positive macro - atmosphere, and it is recommended to wait and see [40]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Recently, it has rebounded significantly at low levels due to strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity market sentiment. In July, its supply - demand is expected to improve, but its own driving force is limited due to high import expectations and high port inventory. The rebound space may be restricted, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side and conduct spread reverse arbitrage [42]. - Styrene: The industry profit is good, and the industry operating rate is high. However, due to the increasing losses of some downstream industries and high finished - product inventory, its supply - demand is expected to weaken. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and positive domestic commodity atmosphere, its increase is limited. Short - selling opportunities above 7500 yuan/ton for EB08 can be considered [42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price dropped by 2.5%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. [2] Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, WTI crude oil (August) rose by 2.8%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [2] PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX remained unchanged, PX spot price (RMB) dropped by 1.3%, etc. [2] PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East - China spot price dropped by 0.5%, TA futures 2509 dropped by 0.9%, etc. [2] MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations MEG port inventory increased by 6.4%, and the arrival expectation decreased by 36.0% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes The Asian PX operating rate dropped by 0.5%, the Chinese PX operating rate increased by 0.3%, etc. [2] Polyolefin Industry Futures Contract Prices L2601 closed at 7278 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; PP2601 closed at 7054 yuan/ton, down 0.49%, etc. [7] Spot Prices East - China PP拉丝 spot price dropped by 0.42%, North - China LDPE film material spot price remained unchanged, etc. [7] Inventory and Operating Rates PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48%, PP device operating rate dropped by 1.1%, etc. [7] Urea Industry Futures Contract Prices The methanol main contract dropped by 1.17%, 01 contract rose by 0.06%, etc. [10] Spot Prices Shandong (small - particle) urea spot price remained unchanged, etc. [10] Supply and Demand Data Domestic urea weekly production increased by 1.12%, domestic urea plant - level inventory decreased by 4.99%, etc. [10] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads Brent rose by 0.23%, WTI rose by 0.16%, Brent M1 - M3 rose by 1.45%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads NYM RBOB rose by 0.04%, NYM ULSD rose by 0.60%, etc. [13] Refined Oil Crack Spreads US gasoline crack spread dropped by 0.33%, European diesel crack spread rose by 5.77%, etc. [13] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent - 100% price remained unchanged, East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained unchanged, etc. [36] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits FOB East - China port caustic soda price dropped by 3.8%, PVC export profit increased by 11.2%, etc. [36][37] Supply and Demand Data Caustic soda industry operating rate dropped by 0.4%, PVC total operating rate dropped by 1.9%, etc. [38] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices Brent crude oil (September) rose by 2.5%, CFR Japan naphtha dropped by 1.2%, etc. [42] Styrene - related Prices and Spreads Styrene East - China spot price dropped by 1.3%, EB futures 2508 dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42] Styrene Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows EPS ordinary material (East - China) rose by 1.8%, PS (East - China) rose by 0.4%, etc. [42] Inventory and Operating Rates Pure benzene East - China port inventory increased by 6.7%, styrene operating rate dropped by 1.4%, etc. [42]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased trade uncertainties due to new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, alongside escalating geopolitical risks related to Russia and Ukraine, and diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [3][4][6]. Group 1: Trade Uncertainty and Tariffs - The Trump administration has announced significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Brazil, with rates ranging from 15% to 50%, effective August 1 [3]. - Historical data indicates that during periods of escalating trade tensions, gold prices typically rise, as seen in the current market response to these tariff announcements [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. Congress is advancing a bill imposing punitive tariffs of 500% on countries purchasing Russian energy, targeting major clients like India and China, which could exacerbate geopolitical tensions [4]. - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with U.S. military support for Ukraine, has heightened geopolitical risk, further driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some fearing prolonged inflationary pressures, while others see it as a temporary spike [6]. - Market expectations for potential interest rate cuts are influencing gold prices, with indications that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, aligning with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through the resistance level of $3,350 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting further upward potential [7]. - The price is currently consolidating within a range of $3,353 to $3,374 per ounce, with a key support level at $3,343 per ounce [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the probability of a rate cut in July has decreased, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Although OPEC+ will complete the plan to exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million tons ahead of schedule, the price increase in Saudi Arabia for the Asian region combined with the peak demand season will support the downside of oil prices. The implementation of the increased production has a certain lag, and once it is implemented, it will still impact the market. Short - term trading should be mainly based on short - term band operations, focusing on the WTI range of $60 - 70, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Price Trends**: From July 7 - 11, international oil prices fluctuated strongly. Despite uncertainties in trade frictions, peak - season demand and low inventories supported oil products. As of July 11, WTI and Brent settled at $67.93/barrel (+2.46%) and $69.78/barrel (+2.34%) respectively; INE SC settled at 512.26 yuan/barrel (+2.36%) [8]. - **Financial Aspects**: Against the backdrop of the postponement of tariff implementation and the easing of the Middle East situation, investors' risk appetite increased significantly, and the US stock market remained at a high level. As of July 11, the S&P 500 index reached 6259.75, continuing its rebound since mid - April [12]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility continued to decline this week, while the dollar index rebounded. As of July 11, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 37.06, and the dollar index was at 97.87. Crude oil volatility declined with the easing of risks, and the dollar index rebounded due to the reduced expectation of a rate cut but was still under pressure overall [15]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 8, the net long positions of WTI management funds decreased by 28,900 contracts to 145,700 contracts, a monthly decline of 16.6%; the speculative net long positions increased by 3,600 contracts to 63,700 contracts, a monthly increase of 6%. Since July, peak - season demand has gradually supported oil prices, but the net long positions decreased due to high valuations [18]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Production**: In May, OPEC's production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 2.7022 million barrels per day. Most countries, except Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, have started to implement the production increase plan, especially Saudi Arabia. However, the increase in May of the eight countries that agreed to increase production was far lower than planned, mainly because some countries began to implement their submitted compensatory production cut plans [23]. - **OPEC+ Production Cut Situation**: According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in May was 2.199 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant over - production, but the over - production amount has started to decrease, indicating that the compensatory production cut plan may be taking effect [26]. - **Saudi and Iranian Production**: In May, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 177,000 barrels per day to 9.183 million barrels per day. Iran's crude oil production decreased by 25,000 barrels per day to 3.303 million barrels per day. The impact of US sanctions on Iran may be gradually reflected in its crude oil production [30]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in May was 8.984 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 barrels per day, remaining relatively stable at a low level. According to the IEA statistical caliber, its production was 9.17 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 160,000 barrels per day, presumably affected by compensatory production cuts [40]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of July 11, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 424, 1 less than the previous week and 54 less than the same period last year. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has decreased significantly, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [44]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of July 4, US crude oil production remained stable at 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week, but a year - on - year increase of 0.64%. Although US crude oil production is at a historical high, low oil prices may dampen producers' enthusiasm and limit the growth space of US oil production [47]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: As of the week of July 4, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.863 million barrels per day, an increase of 376,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 0.55%. The four - week average shows that US petroleum demand continues to recover in the peak season, but the recovery speed is slower than in previous years [51]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: As of July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; consumption increased by 276,000 barrels per day to 20.564 million barrels per day; refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day; refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [55]. - **US Gasoline, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the gasoline crack spread was $23.4 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.34 per barrel. The weekly demand for gasoline and heating oil increased month - on - month. The four - week average demand for gasoline was lower than in previous years, while that of heating oil was better than last year [59]. - **European Diesel, Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of July 11, the ICE diesel crack spread was $26.81 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.43 per barrel. The extremely cold weather and low temperatures had limited impact on heating oil demand, and the positive effect was weaker than in the first quarter, mainly showing a volatile trend. Diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventories and restocking needs [63]. - **Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In May, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.406 million tons year - on - year to 59.111 million tons (-2.32%); imports decreased by 370,000 tons year - on - year to 46.6 million tons (-0.79%). Since March, state - owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased procurement from alternative supplies in the Middle East, West Africa, and South America [67]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: International institutions such as EIA and IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth, while OPEC maintains last month's judgment. In June, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 800,000 barrels per day (down), 720,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively. Next year's growth rates are expected to be 1.05 million barrels per day, 740,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: As of July 4, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased significantly by 707,000 barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 4.29%; SPR inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 46,400 barrels to 212,000 barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the four - week period ending July 4, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day. US refinery throughput decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.1006 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 94.7% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - to - Month Spreads**: As of July 11, the WTI M1 - M2 month - to - month spread was $1.41 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $4.13 per barrel. The WTI month - to - month spread maintained a back structure, and the monthly spread indicator strengthened slightly on a weekly basis. The Brent month - to - month spread also maintained a back structure, with the M1 - M2 spread at $1.2 per barrel and the M1 - M5 spread at $2.96 per barrel [81][84]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Table**: In July, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 104.61 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.54 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.07 million barrels, which continued to increase compared to last month. The EIA believes that OPEC's production increase plan and the production increase outside the group will continue to drive the strong growth of global liquid fuel production [88].

Geopolitical Risks - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have significantly impacted oil prices, with a notable spike following Israel's airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, leading to a single-day increase of over 5% in Brent crude prices [2] - The subsequent threats from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. actions against Iranian facilities further heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions [2] - Following the ceasefire on June 24, oil prices retreated to pre-conflict levels, indicating a quick reversal of the geopolitical premium [2] - Despite the temporary easing of tensions, underlying issues such as the Iranian nuclear situation and the Strait of Hormuz dispute remain unresolved, keeping the market sensitive to sudden developments [2] Fundamental Pricing Logic - The oil market's supply-demand dynamics are expected to dictate price movements in the medium term, with EIA forecasting Brent crude prices to drop to $61 per barrel by the end of 2025 and further to $59 in 2026 due to rising global oil inventories and OPEC+ production increases [3] - OPEC+ has confirmed an acceleration of its production increase plan, aiming to meet its target of 2.2 million barrels per day by September, which is expected to maintain a supply surplus [3] - Demand is showing structural divergence, with U.S. summer travel boosting gasoline and jet fuel consumption, while China's low gasoline and diesel inventories and rising self-driving tourism support stable gasoline demand [3] - However, there are signs of weakening demand as global refinery margins shrink and peak demand for gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. has been reached [3] - Overall, Brent crude prices are projected to fluctuate around $60 per barrel in Q3 2025, influenced by geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production rates, with potential for further declines if Middle Eastern tensions ease [3]

Group 1 - International crude oil prices are under pressure, with WTI trading around $66.90 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous trading day, and Brent crude futures closing at $68.64, down 2.21% [1] - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over global economic growth stemming from President Trump's tariff policies and the critical turning point in OPEC+ production policies [1][3] - The upcoming trade measures set to take effect on August 1 have raised investor worries about the potential suppression of global trade activity and economic growth, which could negatively impact oil demand [3] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to further ease voluntary production cuts in September, with eight member countries anticipated to gradually restore production capacity, indicating a potential oversupply in the global market [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy is increasing borrowing and investment costs, indirectly suppressing oil demand by limiting the expansion willingness of energy-intensive industries [3][4] - The combination of high interest rates and impeded global trade growth is creating a "double pressure" scenario on oil prices, leading to a potential short-term downward risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of new tariffs by President Trump has intensified concerns over the trade war, leading to a resurgence in gold prices, which briefly surpassed the $3340 mark, with expectations of further upward movement towards $3350 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's recent tariff measures include a 50% tariff on copper imports from all countries except Canada and similar tariffs on Brazilian goods, alongside hints of a potential 15%-20% general tariff, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3]. - Despite the rise in gold prices, two factors are limiting its growth: a 0.3% short-term increase in the US dollar index, which is expected to rise by 0.8% weekly, and unexpectedly strong US employment data, which has reduced market expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with gold prices hovering near the middle band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The $3350 level is a key resistance, while $3280 serves as critical support [4]. - The 4-hour chart shows a flat Bollinger Band, with gold prices currently below the upper band. The MACD indicator is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI indicates a strong demand for a rebound, with attention on the support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [4]. - The 1-hour chart indicates an expanding Bollinger Band, reflecting significant short-term volatility. The MACD is in a bullish crossover, and the RSI shows strong momentum, with support at $3280 and resistance at $3350 [5].