| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

1.黄金建议反弹3308-3312区域做空，止损在3320，短期看3295-3285，目标看3250. 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉 快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金1小时K线图来看，当前价格持续受到3325关键阻力位的压制，本周五亚欧交易时段呈现明显的震荡下行走势，最低触及3271。周四出现的快速反弹 行情容易诱导大家追涨，但周五的回落走势再次表明市场存在主力洗盘行为。鉴于周五整体维持弱势整理格局，预计下周初可能面临新的下行压力。目前黄 金1小时均线系统已转为空头排列，且尚未形成金叉信号，表明空头动能正在持续累积。因此翁富豪建议采取反弹做空的交易策略，若价格反弹后始终未能 突破3310阻力位，下周可考虑在该位置附近择机建立空头仓位，把握空头趋势延续的机会。具体翁老师操作建议可在价格反弹至3308-3313区间后考虑布局 空单，该关键区域需要重点关注。 操作策略： 本周五金价下跌，美元指数走强，市场正在消化最新关税政策变化的影响，同时偏弱的通胀数据强化了 ...

金老虎：美联储放鹰屠金，多空底牌被扒，关税政策成"黑天鹅" 梅花香自苦寒来，梅花香自他是梅花，而不是苦寒，有人说觉得累，就去看下凌晨4点的菜市场和急诊 室，觉得累就应该去休息，而不是看谁比自己更累，毕竟恶难皆长相，非是登云梯，为什么道家从不主 张吃苦，因为苦难就是苦难，他不会带来成功，也并不值得追求，如果吃苦就会成功，那么驴是世界首 富； 本周黄金回顾及下周预测分析 本周金价整体走了连续下跌后的上升修复形态，金价从3356弱势下跌到3245整体波动了111美金，然后 金价从3245反弹到了3330的位置整体波动了85美金；本周整体大的波动波动率在196美金；本周金价走 出这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 一、宏观经济数据与美元走势的博弈 1：消费者信心超预期反弹：5 月美国消费者信心指数大幅回升至 98，创近四年最大单月涨幅，反映出 市场对经济前景的乐观情绪。这一数据直接提振了美元指数，导致以美元计价的黄金承压下跌。 2：通胀数据的双向影响：4 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.5%，虽低于前值但仍高于美联储 2% 的 目标。数据公布后，市场对美联储降息预期出现分歧：一方面，通胀放缓为降息提供了空间； ...

【冠通研究】 关税政策反复，市场情绪乏力 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 30 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开低走小幅收跌。美国联邦法院裁决叫停特朗普的大部分关税。但仅到 周五凌晨 3:00 左右，美国上诉法院就恢复了关税。市场目前对关税政策反复表示麻木。 今晚将公布美国 PCE 物价指数，该指数反映美国市场的通胀水平。供给方面并保持偏紧 预期，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅， TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅检修，主要系长 协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依然存在。4 月精炼铜(电 解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国 内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加，位于历年同期高位水平，目前市场对铜供 应紧张预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减弱。需求方面，下游对高价铜持谨慎态度，开工 率有所下降，低价补库临近尾期，整体需求转冷，下游刚需采买，低价拿货，后期需求 转入淡季，下游承接力度不强，铜价承压，但铜矿冶炼端偏紧，宏观环境 ...

基本面： 周五（5月30日）白银价格继续区间内部震荡，市场高位震荡波动，市场变得区间交易，但是也需要关注区间箱体的破位行情，基本面美联储的"艰难取 舍"：降息预期成黄金催化剂美联储5月会议纪要暴露了决策层的分裂：一方面，工作人员警告衰退风险上升；另一方面，通胀压力未消，形成"滞胀式"困 局。市场已开始押注美联储将被迫选择"保增长"：降息预期升温：CME利率期货显示，9月降息概率高达84.4%，2025年累计降息幅度或达50个基点。实际 利率下行：若通胀黏性高于利率降幅，实际利率（黄金定价核心）将加速走低，历史表明这一环境往往催生黄金牛市。当特朗普的政策风险与美联储的宽松 预期叠加，黄金的'完美风暴'正在形成。" 2025年的黄金市场正被两种力量重塑：一是特朗普贸易政策的反复无常，二是美联储货币政策拐点的逼近。短期来看，关税争端上诉结果、6月非农数据将 决定金价能否突破3400美元关口；长期而言，若美国经济步入"低增长+高通胀"陷阱，黄金或迎来堪比2008年的结构性牛市。市场焦点还集中在周五将公布 的美国个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 市场焦点还集 ...

贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 入 開 市 市 需 有 课 风 Re | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 2025/5/29 格厨房 | 3272. 64 | 33. 16 | 3296. 60 | 33. 30 | 764. 32 | 8224. 00 | 761.03 | 8188.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2 ...

沪铜日评20250530:国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-28 | 2025-05-21 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78130 | 77870 | 78100 | 260.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 80153 | 73407 | 71129 | 6, 746. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 174757 | 169462 | 163320 | 5, 295.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 32165 | 34861 | 41218 | -2, 696. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78485 | 78510 | 78460 | -25.00 | | | | 沪铜基差 | 355 | 640 | 360 | -285.00 | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 65 | 120 | 185 | ...

周三晚间，美股集体高开后出现跳水走势。 截至发稿，美股三大指数均已翻绿。 中概股涨跌不一。科技龙头普遍下跌，比亚迪股份跌超4%，拼多多、小米集团跌超3%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪股份-ADR | 102.400 | -4.59% | | 拼多多 | 99.360 | -3.52% | | 小米集团-ADR | 32.570 | -3.09% | | 腾讯控股-ADR | 63.900 | -2.11% | | 京东集团 | 31.895 | -1.98% | | 阿里巴巴 | 117.200 | -1.94% | | 美团-ADR | 33.040 | -1.58% | | 网易 | 124.115 | -0.14% | 热门个股方面，Spero Therapeutics盘初飙涨超244%，一度触发临时停牌。消息面上，此前该公司及其合作伙伴葛兰素史克宣布，他们用于治疗尿路感染 的口服药物tebipenem HBr在一项关键的3期临床试验中达到了主要目标。 美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，将在未来看到更多贸易协议，甚至可能就在本周； 对某些国 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On May 27, 2025, international gold prices dropped significantly, with London spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, closing at $3,300.46, a daily decline of 1.25% [1] - COMEX gold futures also fell by 1.27% to $3,299.7 per ounce, influenced by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a rebound in the dollar index, and easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Domestic Gold Jewelry Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry prices have been adjusted downwards in response to the international gold price decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reducing their gold prices to 986 CNY per gram, a decrease of 10-29 CNY per gram [3] - Lao Miao's gold price has dropped to 997 CNY per gram, while the Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market offers a competitive price of 756 CNY per gram with low processing fees [3] Group 3: Core Reasons for Price Volatility - Market sentiment and policy impacts include cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials indicating no imminent rate cuts, which diminishes gold's appeal [4] - Progress in US-EU trade negotiations and the postponement of tariff increases by Trump have alleviated market tensions [4] - Technical adjustments are evident, with gold prices having risen over 20% since mid-April, leading to profit-taking [4] - Changes in consumer behavior show a shift towards high-value channels and lighter wedding jewelry designs, with average weights decreasing from 40 grams to 30 grams [4] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Future Trends - Investor sentiment is polarized, with some leveraged traders facing losses exceeding 470,000 CNY in a single day, while long-term investors remain optimistic about gold's inflation-hedging properties [5] - China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April to 127.5 tons [5] - Short-term price fluctuations are expected around the $3,300 per ounce support level, with potential volatility of 5%-10% if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance in June [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts gold prices to oscillate between $3,000 and $3,350 [5] - Long-term support factors include ongoing global central bank gold purchases and a weakening trend in dollar credit, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could challenge $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [5] Group 5: Consumption and Investment Recommendations - For essential consumption, it is advisable to prioritize bank gold bars (with a premium of about 3%) or wholesale market options to avoid high processing fees associated with branded gold jewelry [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US mutual tariff relaxation guides import and export expectations. The suspension of underground mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, combined with the approaching traditional consumption peak season, may cause copper prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,210 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 67,182 lots, a decrease of 10,339 lots; open interest was 127,084 lots, a decrease of 17,857 lots; and inventory was 34,961 tons, an increase of 2,128 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,515 yuan, down 75 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 305 yuan, down 15 yuan; and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,596 US dollars, down 18 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased; and the spreads of different contracts changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.745 US dollars, up 0.07 US dollars; total inventory was 178,963 tons, an increase of 4,356 tons [2]. Industry News - **M&A Information**: South African listed company Harmony Gold Mining's Australian subsidiary will acquire BC Copper for approximately 1.84 billion rand (equivalent to 1.03 billion US dollars), aiming to enhance free cash flow and improve solvency, subject to regulatory approvals [2]. - **Macro News**: The US Congress reached a budget resolution in April, including tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The US manufacturing and services PMIs were higher than expected, while the consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in April was lower than expected, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. Upstream Situation - **Mine Production**: The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine under Zijin Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors; the sulfide copper ore project of Vediktepe Polymetallic Mine under ACC Metals is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; several copper mines have expansion or production plans, which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates [3][4]. - **Smelting**: Some smelters have production disruptions or planned production, which may affect the production and import of crude copper and electrolytic copper. For example, the PKSBK copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and the Maxi copper smelter in India may start production around mid - 2025 [4]. Downstream Situation - The high copper price has affected the new orders of copper products, causing the capacity utilization rates of copper rods, copper wires and cables, and other products to decline or be expected to decline [4]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 78,500 - 80,000), London copper (9,000 - 9,300 and 9,600 - 9,800), and US copper (4.3 - 4.5 and 4.8 - 5.0) [4].