来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 现货黄金价格冲上4380美元上方，再度刷新历史新高，白银一度涨超2%，将历史新高刷新至68美元上 方。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 受地缘政治紧张局势恶化和市场对美联储明年将进一步降息的预期推动，周一，黄金、白银价格双双创 下历史新高。 目前，交易员们预计美联储将在2026年降息两次，尽管美国总统特朗普一直主张大幅降息，但上周美国 公布的一系列经济数据未能为前景提供更清晰的指引。对于不支付利息的黄金和白银来说，宽松的货币 政策无疑是一大利好。 地缘政治紧张局势也增强了贵金属的避险吸引力。美国加强了对委内瑞拉的石油封锁，加大了对马杜罗 政府的压力，与此同时，乌克兰首次在地中海袭击了一艘来自俄罗斯"影子船队"的油轮，中东局势也开 始紧张。 贵金属市场正在结束一个具有历史意义的一年，黄金和白银都将创下1979年以来最大的年度涨幅。白银 价格已翻倍有余，黄金价格也 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the A-share market and its response to macroeconomic conditions, particularly influenced by U.S. economic data and monetary policy expectations [1][2][4][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Weak U.S. non-farm data and rising unemployment (4.6%) alongside a decrease in core CPI growth (2.6%) strengthen expectations for potential Fed rate cuts in the coming year [2][4]. 2. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: November economic data in China shows a decline in consumption and investment, with retail sales growth at a three-year low of 1.3%. However, achieving a 5% GDP growth target for the year remains feasible [4][14]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound towards the end of the year and early next year, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips to capitalize on the upcoming spring market [1][5]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three key areas for investment: - **Technology**: Including commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, semiconductors, and robotics, which are supported by policy and active funding [5]. - **Domestic Demand Expansion**: Opportunities in sectors like retail, food and beverage, and home appliances due to policies promoting domestic consumption [5][12]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: With expectations of PPI turning positive, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and renewable energy are highlighted [5]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market, particularly long-term bonds, remains attractive with expected yields between 1.6% and 1.9%, with current yields above the central tendency of 1.75% [8]. 2. **Risk Appetite**: Changes in risk appetite will influence equity market performance, with a balanced approach recommended between growth and value stocks [9]. 3. **Electronic Communication Sector**: The sector is poised for growth due to favorable liquidity conditions, with a focus on advanced semiconductor processes and packaging [10]. 4. **Storage Device Opportunities**: Companies in the storage device sector are expected to benefit from government support and fiscal subsidies, with specific recommendations for firms like Zhongwei and Huazhong [11]. 5. **Consumer Sector Recovery**: The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in tourism and duty-free industries, with specific brands identified as having strong growth potential [13]. 6. **Macroeconomic Environment**: The overall macroeconomic environment is weak, but there is optimism for policy measures that could stimulate the market, particularly as the new year approaches [14][15]. Conclusion - The A-share market is navigating through a period of uncertainty influenced by both domestic and international factors. Strategic investments in technology, domestic demand, and cyclical sectors are recommended, while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes will be crucial for future market performance [1][5][14].

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看 ...

日线图上，黄金在11月止跌企稳后，整体保持上升趋势，逼近历史高点位置。黄金下方支撑，可以关注上周五欧美 盘金价回落企稳位置4320美元，其次关注4300美元整数位置；黄金上方压力，可以关注上周五高点4356美元，其次 关注上周高点位置4374美元。5日均线金叉向上，MACD指标金叉轻微向上，KDJ与RSI指标金叉轻微向上，短期技 术面显示黄金多方相对占优。 上周五我们认为，美国CPI数据显示通胀明显降温，进一步强化了市场对美联储降息的预期，为黄金价格提供支撑， 另外短期技术面显示，黄金存在高位调整的需求，因此操作上建议大家，以震荡思路对待，下方支撑关注4308和 4280美元，上方压力关注4342和4374美元。 黄金日内参考：市场加强对美联储降息的预期，对黄金价格形成支撑，不过临近圣诞假期，市场交投情绪趋于平 淡，黄金保持高位震荡。操作上建议震荡思路对待，下方支撑可以关注4320和4300美元，上方压力可以关注4356和 4374美元。 从之后的走势看，上周五欧盘盘中，黄金回落4320美元企稳，反弹4335美元遇阻，美盘开盘后，黄金回落4319美元 企稳，反弹4356美元遇阻，收盘回落至4338美元，与开盘 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.22 08:21:15 周一 贵金属与工业金属:美11月CPI降温推 动价格走强 【12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商 品价格上涨】 12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期 降温,使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预 期。黄金、白银、铂把等贵金属价格随之走强, 锡、铜、铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流 动性和供给的强约束相互作用,推动商品价格不断 挑战阶段性高点。此外,相关国家愈发重视基础原 材料对发展的重要性,甚至用关税手段获取这类产 品。这加剧了市场的区域性缺口,进一步推动了商 品价格的上行。 【12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商品价格上涨】12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降 温，使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预期。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格随之走强，锡、铜、 铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流动性和供给的强约束相互作用，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性 高点。此外，相关国家愈发重视基础原材料对发展的重要性，甚至用关税手段获取这类产品。这加剧了 市场的区域性缺口，进一步推动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are tightening, with capital expenditures on copper mines insufficient and frequent supply disruptions expected to lead to a shift from a tight balance to a shortage [4] - The aluminum market is characterized by a slight accumulation of domestic inventory, with prices remaining high due to stable demand and limited supply growth [4] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle as inventory continues to deplete [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply of raw materials, despite some easing of export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 64,000, also above forecasts [8] - The US retail sales for October were flat, and the CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.46% compared to a 0.03% rise in the index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is at 26.64 times, while the PB_LF valuation is at 3.29 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [19] 3. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.36%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.96% [24] - Copper inventories in London decreased by 3.32%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 7.18% [24] 4. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.37%, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.54% [36] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight increase in inventory, with production capacity nearing its limits [4] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 3.33% to 97,650 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 3.91% to 86,280 CNY/ton [78] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand continues to grow [4] 6. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt rose by 0.51% to 24.45 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.93% to 422,000 CNY/ton [90] - The supply of cobalt remains tight, with expectations for continued price increases [4]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月19日 华源晨会精粹 20251221 新消费 密集政策提振消费，海南自由贸易港封关运作正式启动——新消费行业周 报：扩大内需是战略之举，消费有关政策频出：中央经济工作会议提出八项明年经 济工作的重点任务，其中第一项重点任务为坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。12 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，文章强调要"牢牢把握 扩大内需这一战略基点"，阐明了扩大内需对发展全局的基础支撑作用。商务部等 9 部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方面 19 条举措。商务部、 中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振 消费的通知》。海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动，中免发布多重礼遇。根据 中免海南战报，12 月 18 日封关首日中免海南销售额超 2.5 亿元，同比增长 90%。 2025 年 1-11 月美容护肤品牌格局：TOP5 品牌主要由珀莱雅、欧莱雅、韩束、兰 蔻、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a rebound, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and advancements in AI technology, leading to significant gains in major internet stocks [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 19, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.75% and 1.12% respectively, with major internet companies like Tencent, Kuaishou, and Meituan all gaining over 1% [1]. - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) saw a high opening and increased by 1.54%, with a peak gain of over 2% during trading [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. core CPI for November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since 2021, indicating signs of cooling inflation [3]. - Market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have risen, with traders anticipating two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points next year [3]. Group 3: AI Developments - Meituan has launched and open-sourced its virtual human video generation model, LongCat-Video-Avatar, which supports various core functions including Audio-Text-to-Video [3]. - Tencent has released its Mix Universe Model 1.5, allowing users to create interactive worlds from text or images, and has open-sourced a comprehensive real-time world model framework [3]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) has attracted a net inflow of 1.33 billion yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [4]. - Dongwu Securities suggests that the current market position is attractive for long-term investment in technology growth stocks, anticipating a rebound in the Hong Kong market [4]. - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the internet sector's cyclical properties combined with the upward trend of AI, viewing major internet companies as potential beneficiaries [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Report's Core View - The US economic data leans towards interest rate cuts, and the US dollar is expected to continue weakening. The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling, which is favorable for the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. With the upcoming nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the market's expectations for future monetary policy rhythm will change, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to decline [34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high, with stock markets showing mixed performance. Bond yields mostly increased, and the yield on US Treasuries dropped to 4.14%. The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher. Gold prices rose 0.9% to $4339 per ounce, the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9, the spot commodity index ended lower, and Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with US and A - shares slightly rising. Developed - market stock markets mostly closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.1%. Emerging - market stock markets mostly closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.61%. The Chinese stock market showed an oscillating trend due to weak economic data in November and the support from the "national team" [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, while the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.14%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield initially rose to 4.18% and then declined due to factors such as market expectations of interest rate cuts and good auction data. The Japanese central bank's interest rate hike pushed up the yields of European and American bonds, and the yield curves of developed countries became steeper. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillated downward to 1.828%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly to 232bp [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.27%, the euro rose 0.26%, the pound fell 0.07%, the yen fell 1.25%, the Swiss franc rose 0.03%, the real fell 2.3%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Korean won, Indian rupee, and Canadian dollar ended lower, while the ringgit, Thai baht, and rand ended higher [24][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4338 per ounce. The US employment market continued to weaken, and the CPI in November significantly declined. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in January slightly increased, and gold oscillated near the previous high. Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to $61.5 per barrel. Supply - side disruptions remained, but demand was weak, and oil prices oscillated at low levels. The spot commodity index ended lower, silver continued to rise, and the volatility of non - ferrous metals increased [28][30] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The labor market is weakening, and inflation is falling. The November non - farm payroll data showed that the slowdown trend in the labor market remained unchanged, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The latest CPI was significantly lower than expected, and core CPI growth was only 2.6%. Although data quality may be an issue, the slowdown in inflation is beneficial to the market [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's December LPR - Tuesday: US Q3 GDP - Wednesday: US initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, European and American markets may close early - Thursday: Christmas, European and American markets are closed - Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [35]

第四，消费板块走势强劲。消费板块已走出趋势性行情，明年已被高层定调为重中之重的任务。近期各 个小会也频繁提及消费板块，政策红利持续释放。投资者可关注消费板块中的低位补涨或龙头领涨机 会，特别是与以旧换新、促消费等政策密切相关的领域。 第五，商业航天板块持续活跃。商业航天板块中，只要长12A没有发射预期，相关公司的演绎就仍将持 续。龙头公司不断轮动上涨，低位板块也不断补涨，甚至有一些回调破位的公司也能创新高。这表明游 资活跃资金已深入扎根于这两个板块。投资者可关注商业航天板块中的优质企业，特别是具有技术创新 能力和市场竞争力的企业。 第二，有色金属板块上涨。上周五晚，有色金属板块继续上涨，白银创新高，伦敦白银达到64.7美元每 盎司，金铜铝也有不同程度上涨。这主要得益于供需问题及美联储明年降息两次的预期。此外，日本加 息被视为鸽派加息，预计下一次加息时间可能在明年9月份之后。同时，印尼镍政策可能减少供应并对 钴单独收税，刚果金的钴出口仍未放开，导致钴现货市场持续上涨。相关公司值得关注，投资者可考虑 有色金属板块的长期投资价值，特别是供需关系紧张、政策支持力度大的品种。 第三，碳酸锂期货异动拉升。上周五，碳酸锂期 ...