智通财经APP获悉，下任美联储主席的热门人选凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)再度发表重磅言论，他在最新采 访中表示央行的独立性"至关重要"，不过，他补充表示这种独立性的范围非常有限，并强调在现任美联 储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的领导下，美联储已涉足其并无职权的政策领域。沃什还表示坚持 独立性和立马降息并不冲突，美联储不应过度担忧关税导致通胀持续上升。 沃什曾在2006至2011年担任美联储理事，其间一直奉行以遏制通胀风险为目标的鹰派利率政策。然而在 今年，他转而主张大幅降息，与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的立场完全保持一致。特朗普则正在考虑在鲍 威尔任期明年5月届满后提名谁来接任美联储主席。 沃什重申了他对鲍威尔领导下美联储的批评，指责其过于担忧特朗普关税可能推高通胀，并强调关税带 来的通胀冲击是一次性而非持续性。 "如果他们是一家非常有公信力的央行，就可以说：'我们忽略这一次性的价格变动。'然而他们迟迟不 肯降息，我认为正是他们的污点。" 沃什还表示，特朗普公开施压美联储货币政策是正确的，并表示现在的美联储政策制定者们对降息犹豫 不决使得美联储信誉逐渐丧失。 贝森特在当时主张提前很长时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The perception that the Federal Reserve operates independently of political pressure is described as a "false proposition," suggesting that market expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a continued rise in the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - As the term of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell approaches its end, investors are expected to focus on the policies of the next Fed chair [1] - Market volatility is anticipated to increase due to uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain long positions in the S&P 500 index and the VIX index, betting on increased allocations to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is deemed "crucial" by Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Warsh emphasizes the importance of independent operation in monetary policy execution, indicating that historical evidence supports this view [1] - Despite advocating for the independence of the Federal Reserve, Warsh notes that this does not imply complete independence in all matters [1] - Warsh, who served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, consistently supported hawkish interest rate policies aimed at addressing inflation risks; however, he now advocates for interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's stance [1] - President Trump is considering nominations for Warsh's potential successor after Chairman Powell's term ends in May of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest UK employment data indicates a softening labor market, but it is not severe enough to prompt the Bank of England to make substantial adjustments to interest rate forecasts [1] Employment Data Summary - The unemployment rate increased from 4.6% to 4.7% [1] - The number of employed individuals reported by HMRC decreased by 41,000 [1] - Previous months' employment data was revised from a loss of 109,000 to a loss of 25,000, which is a notable improvement [1] Currency Impact Summary - The trend of weak data is likely to continue exerting pressure on the British pound [1] - Short positions on the pound are expected to remain dominant, particularly against the euro [1] - The decline in the euro/pound exchange rate may be limited, as the path of least resistance appears to favor upward movement [1]

智通财经7月17日电，潜在的美联储主席候选人WARSH表示，美联储应对通胀负责。美联储对降息犹豫 不决使其信誉丧失，特朗普公开敦促美联储是正确的。 ...

"关税效应开始显现了！" 《今日美国报》报道截图 如果说5月2.4%的同比CPI涨幅被不少人认为尚属"温和"的话，那么6月的CPI可谓是揭去面纱露出真容。 有经济学家指出，由于多数企业在白宫宣布"对等关税"前抢先进口货物增加了库存，5月物价压力尚不明显。但随着库存减少，通胀会从6月开始升温，且一 直持续到今年下半年。 在获悉美国最新通胀数据后，多家外媒纷纷发出这一惊呼。 自上而下依次是法新社、美联社、英国广播公司的报道标题截图 根据美国劳工统计局15日发布的报告，美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，显著高于5月的2.4%，也高于市场预期，为2月以来最大同比涨幅。 这也应了许多专家的预测：美国的关税政策推升了物价。 路透社报道截图 就连总统的盟友也承认…… 美联储16日发布的经济状况"褐皮书"称，从5月下旬到7月初，全美各地物价均有所增长。许多企业正通过涨价或收取附加费将至少部分成本上涨转嫁给消费 者。 6月CPI数据也显示，一些容易受到关税影响的特定产品价格上涨更为明显。《纽约时报》称，这说明美国政府的高额关税已经开始给消费者的钱包带来压 力。 《纽约时报》报道截图 尽管如此，白宫仍试图淡化最新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK central bank is likely to lower interest rates in response to a cooling job market and slowing wage growth [1] Group 1: Employment Market - Average wage growth in the UK has slowed to 5% for the three months ending in May, down from 5.3% in the previous period [1] - The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level since 2021, indicating cracks in the UK employment market [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Joe Nellis from MHA Economic Advisors suggests that with easing inflation pressures, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to vote for a rate cut in their next meeting on August 7 [1]

Group 1 - Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3% in June, the highest level in four years, indicating a loosening labor market and providing more grounds for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower interest rates next month [1] - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase of only 2,000 jobs, entirely driven by part-time positions, while economists had expected an increase of 20,000 jobs [1] - The market has fully priced in expectations for the RBA to cut rates in August and again afterward, with a likelihood of another cut exceeding 50% [1] Group 2 - Australia's economic growth momentum remains weak, with low consumer confidence and household spending [2] - Trade uncertainties are affecting corporate investment decisions and prompting companies to reassess hiring plans, particularly as the August 1 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump approaches [2] - The data suggests ongoing weakness in the private sector, leading to calls for the RBA to lower the cash rate at the next meeting [2]

野村：澳洲联储可能会在8月、11月和明年2月会议上各降息25个基点。 随着裂痕现在出现——尤其是全职工人数量的下降——这为澳洲联储降息打开了更大的空间。 ...

金十数据7月17日讯，财经网站Forexlive评澳大利亚6月就业数据：失业率的大幅上升应该足以让澳洲联 储在8月降息。劳动力市场的紧缩是联储在降息周期中行动缓慢的原因之一。 机构分析：6月失业率大幅上升足以让澳洲联储在8月降息 ...