日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-09 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金 ETF 持有量微降 金价震荡收跌白银高位回落，市场等待本周美联储降息落地， 缺乏增量利多后步入盘整阶段，如果是鹰派降息落地则面临回 调风险，市场对降息 25bp 已经充分定价。 中央政治局会议召开 宏观策略（股指期货） 中央政治局会议召开 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 11 月中国出口增速超预期 短线市场调整风险或并未完全释放，但做多胜率和赔率均较此 前上升。 农产品（豆粕） 上周豆粕库存略降 美国将我国采购 1200 万吨大豆的目标延期至 2 月底，关注今晚 USDA 月度供需报告。我国 11 月进口大豆 810.7 万吨，同环比国 内大豆供应仍然充足，豆粕库存维持高位。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 中国工程机械工业协会：11 月我国挖掘机开工率为 57% 综 合 11 月中国出口大超预期，贸易顺差快速积累，前 11 月已超 1 万 亿美元，对经济形成较强支撑。出口链或成为 2026 年增长最为 强劲的板块。 钢价震荡回落，市场走弱一方面由于政治局会议并未提出明显 政策增量，市场预期转弱。另一方面在于双 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair for 2026 and the macroeconomic data that will shape the interest rate path for that year [1] - Recent economic data indicates a weakening manufacturing PMI in the U.S., with new orders remaining below the critical threshold of 50 [1] - The core PCE inflation rate has shown a monthly increase of 0.2% in September, corresponding to an annualized growth of 2.4%, which supports the case for further interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - U.S. consumer spending growth has slowed from a 0.5% increase to 0.3% in September, indicating a shift towards saving rather than spending [4] - Overall economic data suggests a gradual slowdown, with inflation pressures remaining low and the potential for interest rate cuts being reasonable [5] - The market anticipates a 95% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the focus on how Chair Powell will communicate the future path of interest rates [6] Group 3 - The potential new Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett, has set high expectations for economic growth in 2026, predicting a productivity increase of 3-4% driven by AI [11] - Hassett's optimistic outlook contrasts with the market's general expectation of around 2% growth for 2026, indicating a significant divergence in economic forecasts [12] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is collective, involving multiple members, which may limit the influence of any single chairperson [14] Group 4 - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policies for 2026 include significant government spending and corporate debt issuance, raising questions about the management of long-term interest rates [15] - The Federal Reserve may consider purchasing short-term bonds to ensure adequate bank reserves, which could influence both short and long-term interest rates [16] - The overall strategy appears to focus on controlling inflation while promoting economic growth through AI infrastructure investments and tax reductions [18]

Group 1: Market Movements - The Bloomberg Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday, with traders closely monitoring upcoming central bank meetings, including those of the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank [1][5] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.1% at the start of U.S. stock market trading [1][5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by approximately 3.3 basis points to 4.17% [1][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, along with the release of updated economic and interest rate forecasts [6] - Japan's government confirmed that the economy contracted in the three months leading up to September [8] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Japanese yen fell to a daily low after a tsunami warning was issued following an earthquake, with USD/JPY rising by 0.4% to a daily high of 155.99 [3][8] - The euro remained stable against the dollar at 1.1641, while GBP/USD held steady at 1.3328 [9] - The USD/CAD rose by 0.2% to 1.3849, reversing earlier gains for the Canadian dollar amid overall dollar strength [11]

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：鲍威尔可能也认为降息是审慎的。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

来源：金十数据 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本周的预测将受到10月至11月为期43天的政府停摆影响。最新的官方就业和通胀数据仅更新至9月，政 策制定者不得不依靠私人机构估算、自身调查以及与企业和社区人士的沟通来填补信息空白。 美联储会议后公布的数据可能有助于明确经济是倾向于就业疲软还是通胀高企，从而缓解政策分歧。但 正如预测人士目前所预期的，如果失业率保持相对低位、通胀持续高于目标，这些数据也可能延长当前 的僵局。 美联储本周召开的会议，将开始为特朗普即将提名的央行新掌门奠定预期基础，这可能让政策制定者陷 入两难境地——一方面普遍担忧通胀问题，另一方面要应对特朗普的降息要求。 在将于北京时间周四凌晨结束的为期两天会议上，25个基点的降息似乎已板上钉钉，但围绕该决定的政 策声明及附带的经济预测，将揭示下任主席接手的会是一个倾向于反对进一步降息的机构，还是一个更 愿意接受争论、短期前景更偏鸽派的团队。 特朗普尤其希望通过降低借贷成本提振住房市场，以此解决民众对可负担性的普遍担忧——这一问题可 能成为中期选举的核心议题。但实现这一目标可能给下任美联储主席带来风险：预测人 ...

#报告 高盛12月FOMC会议全解析：降息25基点无悬念，但真正的信号在这里 https://t.co/INytJQ2DdLNone (@None):None ...

近期美国经济数据整体呈现温和但不强劲的特点：就业动能有所降温，制造业活动依然偏弱，而通胀水 平已经回落至美联储更能接受的区间。 今日周一(12月8日)欧盘时段，白银td目前交投于13593一线上方，今日开盘于13631元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报13667元/千克，上涨1.25%，最高触及13882元/千克，最低下探13450元/千克，目前来 看，白银td盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 从市场定价来看，降息概率已从一周前的71%迅速升至90%，显着强化了美元指数短线的下行压力。据 市场调查显示的观点指出，当前利率预期的快速变化，是投资者对未来经济增长信心下降的直接回应。 日图来看，白银td走势延续上周五涨势，并且目前DMI显示看涨趋势，RSL也处于高位，后续仍有力度 再次探高，白银走势下方关注13000-13500支撑；上方关注13800-14000阻力。 这使得市场认为货币政策将进入更宽松的周期。在此背景下，市场高度关注即将到来的美联储主席新闻 发布会。如果发言偏向鹰派，则可能对美元提供短暂支撑；反之，如果强调经济面临压力或通胀持续降 温，则会进一步强化市场对降息的押注。 尽管有支持因素，但市场 ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Federal Reserve expected to gradually lower the key interest rate to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by the end of 2026 [1] - The latest inflation data has opened the door for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the core PCE price index rising 2.8% year-on-year in September [1] - The Reserve Bank of India has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, while the Polish central bank has also reduced its benchmark rate to 4.00% [3] Regulatory Developments - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is committed to establishing new regulations for banks and stablecoins to ensure healthy competition among Wall Street, fintech companies, and cryptocurrency firms [2] - The European Central Bank has requested the Italian government to reconsider its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as property of the Italian people, which may lead to the sale of some gold reserves [2] Market Observations - A Reuters survey indicates that 50 out of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.50% in the first quarter of 2026, with 89 economists predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [4] - The Bank of England warns that the AI investment boom, driven by debt financing, poses a risk of market collapse, which could impact broader credit and debt markets [3] Upcoming Focus - Key central bank meetings and announcements are scheduled, including the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, where interest rate decisions and economic forecasts will be discussed [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing investigation into potential price manipulation in the food industry initiated by Trump, which may impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [4] - The report notes a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves and a continuous 13-month trend of gold accumulation by the central bank, indicating a strengthening of financial stability [4] - The report mentions a year-end push in the real estate market with various regions increasing home purchase subsidies, which could stimulate housing demand [4] Economic Data - The report provides key economic indicators, including the Baltic Dry Index at 2727.00, down 3.09%, and the CME Bitcoin futures at 89425.00, down 3.68% [5] - Oil prices are noted with ICE Brent crude at 63.86, up 0.95%, while gold is at 4197.41, down 0.25% [5] - The report lists major stock indices, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26085.08, up 0.58%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 3902.81, up 0.70% [8][5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23578.13, up 0.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47954.99, up 0.22% [8] - The S&P 500 index is reported at 6870.40, up 0.19%, while the Nikkei 225 is at 50491.87, down 1.05% [8] - The report also highlights the performance of the Shenzhen Composite Index at 2468.88, up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index at 3109.30, up 1.36% [8]

普通消费者则因对就业市场的焦虑情绪日益加重，在非必需品消费上趋于谨慎，支出意愿明显收缩，这种 消费结构的分化也暗示了经济复苏的不均衡性。 上周五同步公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数显示，12月初该指数出现五个月以来的首次回升。随着核心 PCE数据回落，消费者对未来物价上涨的担忧有所减轻，进而对个人财务前景产生了更乐观的判断。这种 信心的修复虽然初步，但为后续消费市场的稳定提供了一定支撑，也与通胀数据的改善形成了正向反馈。 此次通胀数据公布后，现货黄金价格并未出现显著波动。核心PCE同比回落虽利好贵金属，但环比数据符 合预期，且市场此前已部分消化了降息预期，因此未引发过度的投机性交易。 对于美联储而言，此次数据进一步强化了政策宽松的合理性，但考虑到就业市场仍相对稳健，且下一份通 胀数据的发布时间未定，美联储大概率将维持谨慎态度，不会急于启动降息，而是继续观察通胀与经济增 长的联动趋势。 美国商务部于上周五发布的核心通胀数据显示，9月份美国核心个人消费支出价格指数同比增速意外回落 至2.8%，创下近三个月以来的最低水平，显著低于市场普遍预期的2.9%，核心PCE价格指数上涨0.2%，与 8月份持平，符合市场此前的预 ...