期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-07-31 弱化风险，关注内需政策发力 ——政治局会议系列五 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定召开二十届四中全会，分析研究当前经济形 势和经济工作。 核心观点 ■ 总体判断：经济良好，质量成效 经济判断：经济运行定调积极。下半年经济发展工作要求"巩固"和"拓展"。 经济工作：下半年宏观政策总体保持延续性。关注全球经济政策之间的协同性，以及 中美经贸谈判的相对积极的可能性。 宏观政策：政策从"用好用足"转向"落实落细"；货币政策不再提"适时降准降息"；加力 经济大省挑大梁。 ■ 重点工作：降低风险，以我为主 内需：依然是重点。（1）在消费领域"深入实施"提振消费专项行动，且从方向上这部分 消费是来源于"保障改善民生"；从结构上除了"扩大"商品消费，也要"培育"服务消费。 （2）在投资领域，相比较 4 月份扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设，7 月 份政治局会议仅强调了高质量推动"两 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 showed a weakening trend, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The current price trend is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. After the Politburo's expectations are realized, the speculation sentiment may fade, and the Sino - US negotiation setbacks put pressure on the upper limit of ore prices. However, the high production of steel mills provides continuous support. Therefore, the ore price is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the results of the third round of Sino - US negotiations [7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On July 30, the main iron ore futures 2509 contract opened higher and then oscillated downward, closing at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The prices, trading volumes, and positions of other black - series futures contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, and SS2509 also had corresponding changes [7][5]. - The spot market: On July 30, the main iron ore outer - market quotes decreased by 0.5 - 1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: The Politburo meeting on July 30 mentioned deepening reforms, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order. The Sino - US third - round negotiation encountered setbacks, raising market risk - aversion sentiment [10][11]. - Fundamentals: The Australian iron ore shipments rebounded last week, and Brazilian shipments were basically the same as the previous week. The overall shipments recovered after the seasonal decline. The current weekly shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are at a medium level of about 27 million tons. The arrivals last week dropped to a relatively low level of 22.405 million tons. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals may oscillate at this level until mid - August and then rise again. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is in a seasonal decline, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains above 2.4 million tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased again, and steel enterprises maintain high production, which is expected to slow down the production - cut process and support the ore price [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On July 23, the CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, emphasizing the need to do a good job in the second - half economic work, including stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and boosting consumption [13]. - On July 30, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Due to factors such as the sharp rise in coal prices, high demand for coke from steel mills, and the lag in coke price increases, the participating enterprises decided to raise the coke price starting from July 31. The prices of tamping wet - quenched coke, tamping dry - quenched coke, and top - charged coke were increased by 50 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, and 75 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - The Politburo meeting on July 30 decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, mainly to discuss the work report and the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting also analyzed the economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work, including deepening reforms, expanding opening - up, and preventing and resolving risks [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, and other data [20][23][27].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized a stable yet progressive economic outlook for the second half of the year, highlighting the resilience and vitality of China's economy despite existing risks and challenges [1][5][8]. Economic Performance - The economy has shown steady progress with significant achievements in high-quality development, positive performance in major economic indicators, and effective risk prevention in key areas [1][5][9]. - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing awareness of potential challenges and leveraging development opportunities to sustain economic recovery [1][8]. Macroeconomic Policy - Continuous and timely macroeconomic policies are essential, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to maximize policy effects [1][11][12]. - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and maintain ample liquidity in the monetary policy [1][12]. Demand Expansion - The meeting prioritized expanding domestic demand, emphasizing the need to effectively unleash consumption potential through specialized actions to boost consumer spending and cultivate new growth points in service consumption [2][13][14]. - High-quality investment initiatives are encouraged to stimulate private investment and expand effective investments [2][14]. Reform and Market Development - The meeting called for unwavering commitment to deepening reforms, particularly in building a unified national market and addressing capacity governance in key industries [2][16][17]. - Emphasis was placed on fostering internationally competitive emerging pillar industries and integrating technological and industrial innovation [2][16]. Stability in Bull Market - In the context of a clearly defined upward trend in the bull market, the meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining continuity and stability in macroeconomic policies to foster investor confidence [2][5]. Risk Prevention - The meeting stressed the need to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and capital markets, ensuring a stable economic environment [21][25]. Social Welfare - The meeting emphasized the importance of social welfare, focusing on employment, social security, and agricultural support, while ensuring the safety and well-being of the population [23][24].

7月30日，省十四届人大常委会第十八次会议举行"抢抓政策机遇、发挥比较优势，加快融入服务全国统 一大市场"专题讲座。 与会同志表示，要将思想和行动统一到习近平总书记关于构建全国统一大市场的重要论述上来，深刻领 悟"两个确立"的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维护"，切实增强融入服务全国统一大市场的责任感、使命 感、紧迫感，认真贯彻省委十一届九次全会精神，牢牢把握"五统一、一开放"基本要求，紧扣实施"六 大行动"，充分发挥人大职能作用，高质量做好立法、监督、代表等各项工作，为积极融入服务全国统 一大市场建设、助推我省经济社会高质量发展贡献智慧力量。 省人大常委会副主任、党组书记李亚，副主任何金平、刘南昌、苏晓红出席，秘书长吉炳伟主持。 省发展改革委党组书记、主任马健围绕主题，从建设全国统一大市场的重大意义、全国统一大市场建设 的内涵逻辑、我省融入服务全国统一大市场建设的思路举措等方面，作了一场内容丰富的辅导报告。 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, including resolving local government debt risks, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promoting reforms [2]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, stressing the need to adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, boost consumption, and promote economic circulation [2]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao mentioned that under the guidance of the two heads of state, China and the US have formed relevant consensuses and frameworks in the economic and trade field, and the two teams held talks in Stockholm [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed a 5 - day trading ban on a client for exceeding the daily trading limit in the container shipping index (European line) futures contract on July 30 [3]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut, and Powell avoiding guidance on a September rate cut [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Glass, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and synthetic rubber [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals 27.23%, oilseeds 11.99%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.03%, energy 3.39%, chemicals 11.71%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.87% [4] 3. Sector Position - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.17 | 4.97 | 7.88 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 3.96 | 5.01 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.02 | 5.47 | 5.50 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.65 | 6.75 | 10.29 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.12 | 2.55 | 8.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.36 | 4.59 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | 0.19 | 1.47 | 21.86 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.05 | 0.41 | 1.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.01 | 4.29 | 11.79 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Futures | 0.15 | - 0.55 | - 0.57 | | | 5 - year Treasury Futures | 0.08 | - 0.50 | - 0.85 | | | 2 - year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | - 0.16 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.92 | 3.11 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.57 | 8.15 | - 2.25 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.53 | - 0.82 | 24.80 | | | LME Copper | - 0.69 | - 1.50 | 10.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.56 | 2.17 | 16.29 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 1.06 | 3.30 | - 7.85 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 4.48 | - 7.90 | [6]

Core Insights - In June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [1] - The manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with profits shifting from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase in June [1] - Cumulatively, in the first half of the year, the operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.5%, while profits fell by 1.8% [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 1.0% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as in May, which supports the recovery of corporate profits [1] - The profit decline for industrial enterprises narrowed in June, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing rapid profit growth [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector's operating income grew by 7.0% year-on-year, and profits shifted from a 2.9% decline in May to a 9.6% increase in June, contributing significantly to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [1] Group 2: High-end and Green Manufacturing - Profits in high-end manufacturing sectors such as electronic materials, aircraft manufacturing, and marine engineering equipment grew by 68.1%, 19.0%, and 17.8% respectively [2] - The production of smart and automated products accelerated, leading to profit increases in related industries, with smart consumer devices and measuring instruments seeing profits rise by 40.9% and 12.5% respectively [2] - Green production and lifestyle trends positively impacted profits in sectors like lithium-ion battery manufacturing, biomass energy generation, and environmental monitoring instruments, with profit growth rates of 72.8%, 24.5%, and 22.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Policy Impact on Profit Growth - The expansion of "two new" policies and subsidies has significantly improved profits in related industries, with medical equipment manufacturing, specialized printing equipment, and general parts manufacturing seeing profit increases of 12.1%, 10.5%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - The "replace old with new" policy for consumer goods has shown continued effectiveness, with profits in sectors like smart drones, computer manufacturing, and air conditioning equipment rising by 160.0%, 97.2%, and 21.0% respectively [3] - Related industries such as optoelectronic devices and computer components also experienced profit growth of 29.6% and 16.9% respectively [3]

《征求意见稿》明确，将加强政府投资基金投向调控，按照要求，政府投资基金不得投资于《产业结构 调整指导目录》中的限制类、淘汰类产业，以及其他有关规划和政策文件中明确要求调控限制的产业领 域。同时，设立政府投资基金要落实建设全国统一大市场部署要求，不以招商引资为目的，鼓励降低或 取消返投比例。 本报讯 据国家发展改革委30日消息，为更好发挥政府投资基金在服务国家战略、推动产业升级、促进 创新创业等方面的积极作用，国家发展改革委会同有关方面起草了《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工作 指引（公开征求意见稿）》和《加强政府投资基金投向指导评价管理办法（公开征求意见稿）》（下称 《征求意见稿》），向社会公开征求意见。 另外，政府投资基金不得通过明股实债等方式变相增加地方政府隐性债务，除并购重组、定向增发、战 略配售外不得从事公开交易类股票投资，不得直接或间接从事期货等衍生品类交易，不得为被投资企业 之外的企业或项目提供担保，不得开展承担无限责任的投资。（鲍仁） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the confidence and capability to achieve the economic and social development goals for the year, despite the tight timeline and heavy tasks ahead, as outlined in the Central Political Bureau meeting [1] Economic Performance - The economic total grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating a stable trend with summer grain production remaining robust [1] - High-tech manufacturing industries saw an increase in added value by 9.5% year-on-year, reflecting the emergence of new growth drivers [1] Policy Implementation - The implementation of "two heavy" and "two new" policies has strengthened investment in fixed assets and released domestic demand potential [1] - Efforts to eliminate "involution" competition and accelerate the establishment of a unified national market have effectively stimulated market vitality [1] Challenges and Confidence - The article highlights the importance of proactive measures and overcoming challenges, asserting that the centralized and unified leadership of the Party is fundamental to effective economic work [1] - There is a strong belief in the ability to consolidate and expand positive momentum, turning development plans into reality [1]

要实现"十四五"圆满收官，做好下半年经济工作至关重要。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议明确，着力稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""努力完成全年经 济社会发展目标任务"，并作出一系列重要部署，释放了多重信号。 ◎本报记者集体采写 看点1 宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是经济保持平稳运行的重要推动力。7月30日中央政治局会议提出，宏观政策要持续发力、适 时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 本次会议重申坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月中央政治局会议"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"的表述，同时提到"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 粤开证券首席经济学家兼研究院院长罗志恒表示，"适时加力""增强灵活性预见性"意味着：一方面，延 续前期政策，落实既定的财政货币金融政策，做好政策接续，不搞大拐弯，让经营主体有稳定的政策预 期和市场预期，推动经济持续平稳运行；另一方面，也要看到政策的连续性，同时根据形势变化做出灵 活调整， ...