证券研究报告 银行 重视基金改革下银行配置新逻辑 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 14 日│中国内地 动态点评 我们认为公募改革落地有望驱动银行板块估值。证监会最近发布《推动公募 基金高质量发展行动方案》（简称"方案"），显著强化业绩比较基准约束力， 预计未来基金配置或向业绩基准靠拢。25Q1 主动权益深度欠配银行，较沪 深 300 偏离度近 10pct，改革驱动下或有较大增配空间。近期一揽子政策落 地，驱动经济修复，此外，被动基金持续扩容，险资加速入市，增量资金持 续流入可期，有望进一步支撑板块行情。个股推荐：1）25Q1 公募低配的 股份行：如招行 AH、兴业；2）稳健大行仍有配置价值，如农行 AH、交行 AH；3）质优个股，如成都、上海、渝农 AH、重庆 AH。 明确长期导向，强化基准约束 改革明确长周期业绩考核导向，强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，或驱动基金 产品增配此前低配的权重行业。方案提出，建立与基金业绩表现挂钩的浮动 管理费收取机制，同时强化业绩比较基准的约束作用，避免"风格漂移"等 问题。方案全面强化长周期考核与激励约束机制，在对基金经理的考核方面， 提出构建以 5 年以上长周期业绩为核心的评价 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the public fund reform in China, focusing on the mutual fund industry and its implications for investors and fund companies [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Objective of New Regulations**: The new regulations aim to address residents' investment returns, reduce investor costs, and shift the industry focus from scale to actual returns. The first two phases of fee reductions for active equity funds have been completed [1][5]. - **Performance Assessment**: Emphasis on performance assessment will lead the mutual fund industry to prioritize actual returns over mere scale expansion. This includes incorporating investor gains and losses into evaluation metrics [6][7]. - **Cost Reduction for Investors**: Investor costs are expected to decrease through lower sales fees and management fees. Sales fees are currently in the range of 0% to 1.5%, with a significant portion of products having low sales fees [10][11]. - **Shift Towards Equity Funds**: The policy encourages the development of equity funds, which currently represent a low proportion of the mutual fund market in China (22% compared to 57% globally). There is a need to enhance research quality and performance to attract more funds [14][15]. - **ETF and Index Fund Growth**: The development of index funds and ETFs is crucial for expanding mutual fund assets. The growth rate of ETFs is projected to be 39% from 2018 to 2024 [15]. Additional Important Content - **Impact on Non-Bank Sectors**: The reform has significantly impacted the non-bank sector, with a notable short-term rally in stocks due to low allocation in the sector. The banking sector has seen a 7.3% increase, while non-bank sectors like insurance and brokerage have underperformed [2][4]. - **Long-term Trends in Non-Bank Sector**: The insurance sector is expected to improve, with a stable long-term interest rate environment alleviating margin pressures. Companies like China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. - **Changes in Fund Sales**: The sales process will be standardized, with a focus on maintaining product scale and investor outcomes. The importance of fund advisory services is expected to increase, providing a new revenue stream for fund companies [3][17]. - **Industry Consolidation**: The new regulations are likely to accelerate the survival of the fittest within the industry, favoring larger firms while smaller firms may struggle to maintain profitability [18][19]. - **Performance-Based Fee Structures**: The introduction of performance-based fee structures is anticipated to lead to a more conservative investment approach among fund managers, potentially increasing the attractiveness of fixed-income products [16]. Conclusion The public fund reform in China is set to reshape the mutual fund industry by emphasizing performance, reducing costs for investors, and promoting equity fund growth. The changes are expected to benefit larger, more innovative firms while posing challenges for smaller entities. The focus on ETFs and index funds will also play a critical role in the industry's future development.

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced an action plan to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, marking a significant reform in an industry worth over 30 trillion yuan [1][10]. Group 1: Reform Objectives - The action plan aims to shift the focus of public funds from "scale" to "returns," addressing issues related to investor satisfaction and fund performance [2][3]. - Key reforms include optimizing the fee structure for actively managed equity funds, ensuring that poorly performing funds charge lower management fees, and incorporating performance metrics into the evaluation of fund managers [3][6]. Group 2: Implementation Strategies - The reform will enhance the stability of fund investment behaviors by synchronously addressing both horizontal (peer products) and vertical (time dimension) aspects [4]. - The action plan emphasizes the importance of long-term mechanisms and incentive constraints to guide fund companies and sales institutions back to their core mission of serving investors [6]. Group 3: Focus on Equity Funds - The reform highlights the need to develop equity funds, which are crucial for providing unique value to investors and enhancing the capabilities of industry institutions [6][7]. - Since September of the previous year, the scale of equity funds has increased from 7 trillion yuan to 8.3 trillion yuan, indicating a growing emphasis on this segment [7]. Group 4: Governance and Investor Services - The reform will also focus on improving fund company governance, strengthening core investment research capabilities, and enhancing investor service levels to build first-class investment institutions [8]. - The public fund industry, with over 800 million investors, plays an increasingly important role in wealth management and capital market development in China [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The reform is seen as a necessary step in the evolution of China's capital market, promoting a virtuous cycle of investment and financing [11]. - The public fund industry is expected to continue exploring reforms to effectively allocate financial resources and ensure that residents benefit from economic growth [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View Today, influenced by information such as articles on continuously stabilizing and activating the capital market and the public - fund reform plan, the non - banking and banking sectors rose significantly, driving the broad - market index futures to rise notably. However, among all A - shares, the number of rising stocks was less than that of falling stocks, showing an obvious structural market. Since April, the effects of stabilizing the stock market and capital support have been remarkable. In the short term, even if the stock index retraces, the downside space is limited. But it's difficult to drive the central level of the stock index to rise continuously with only emotional support, and the short - term upside space is also expected to be limited. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, around 3955 is the first resistance level, which was not broken today. Although the trading volume increased, it was relatively limited, and the volatile market may continue. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review Today, the stock index generally rose. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.21%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 2.0252 billion yuan. In the index - futures market, all varieties rose with increased volume [4]. Important Information 1. Seven departments including the Ministry of Science and Technology issued "Several Policy Measures for Accelerating the Construction of a Science - and - Technology Finance System to Strongly Support High - level Scientific and Technological Self - Reliance" [5]. 2. Starting from 12:01 on May 14th, China implemented adjusted measures for imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States [5]. Strategy Recommendation It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday percentage change (%) | 1.45 | 1.85 | 0.77 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.9424 | 7.6237 | 13.0413 | 29.149 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 5.6184 | 3.915 | 3.7433 | 8.0442 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.3673 | 10.1251 | 22.2531 | 35.0101 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 2.5069 | 1.878 | 1.5835 | 2.8068 | [7] Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index percentage change (%) | 0.86 | | | Shenzhen Component Index percentage change (%) | 0.64 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.82 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 13167.27 | | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | 252.02 | [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs and their implications for asset allocation strategies, highlighting a shift from confrontation to a more conciliatory approach in trade relations [1] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the current complex landscape in China, particularly in the context of the ongoing tariff wars and their impact on various sectors [1] - The article features insights from industry experts on how to navigate the evolving investment environment, particularly focusing on the balance between "new" and "old" consumption trends [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the significant reforms in public funds and how these changes will affect future investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility [2] - It highlights the appeal of pure bond funds with set holding periods, which provide a balance between yield and liquidity, helping investors manage emotional responses during market fluctuations [2] - The article also notes the importance of disciplined investment approaches to achieve certainty in uncertain market conditions [2] Group 3 - The performance of various ETFs is analyzed, with specific focus on the Food and Beverage ETF, which has seen a recent increase of 2.20% and a net inflow of 21.8 million yuan despite a reduction in shares [5] - The Gaming ETF has experienced a decline of 1.60% with a significant outflow of 6.82 million yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [5] - The Cloud Computing ETF remains stable with no change in performance, but has seen a slight net inflow, suggesting cautious investor interest [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 1% and reaching a nearly two-month high of 3400 points, driven by the financial sector and low-fee ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," emphasizing long-term investment value and guiding asset allocation towards the CSI 300 index [3][4]. - The new assessment system will focus on long-term value, with a minimum of 80% weight on medium to long-term returns over three years [3][4]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The CSI 300 index, which focuses on large-cap blue-chip stocks, is expected to benefit from the new long-term value assessment system, attracting long-term capital inflows [4][10]. - The banking sector, characterized by high dividends and low valuations, is likely to see increased interest from long-term investors due to the extended assessment period [4][10]. Group 3: Fund Management Trends - The plan aims to significantly increase the scale and proportion of equity investments in public funds, promoting the development of various index funds and implementing a rapid registration mechanism for ETFs [7][10]. - A new floating management fee model linked to fund performance will encourage institutional capital to adopt long-term balanced investment strategies, potentially increasing allocations to underrepresented sectors like banking [8][10].

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Middle East focuses on selling military weapons and potentially easing AI chip restrictions, which could impact the domestic AI chip sector and the logic of domestic substitution [1] - The market showed a cautious response despite positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, with foreign capital predicting China's Q2 GDP growth may exceed 4.5% and Q3 could also be above 4% [2][5] - The market's muted reaction is attributed to the fact that the negotiations did not fully meet expectations, as the suspension of tariffs is not equivalent to their removal, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [5][6] Group 2 - Recent negotiations have only achieved a phase of progress, and uncertainties remain regarding future discussions, particularly with Trump's unpredictable nature [7] - Public funds are beginning to buy into heavyweight stocks due to a new action plan aimed at enhancing the performance of public funds, which has seen many funds underperforming their benchmarks in recent years [8][11] - The focus for institutional investors should be on increasing allocations to high-weight stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance, while reducing positions in stocks like Luxshare Precision and Sailun Tire that are over-allocated in funds [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China is entering a phase of high-quality development, driven by the recently issued action plan from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which outlines 25 policy measures aimed at reforming key aspects of the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures and Industry Response - The action plan includes reforms on fund performance benchmarks, floating management fee structures, performance evaluation mechanisms, and compensation management, which have sparked extensive discussions within the industry [1][3]. - Following the release of the action plan, public funds have begun to take swift actions, with companies like浦银安盛基金 announcing changes to their performance benchmarks for several funds [2][3]. - Over 20 funds have initiated fee reductions since April, primarily among bond funds, indicating a proactive response to the new regulatory environment [1][2]. Group 2: Changes in Fund Management and Strategy - The introduction of a floating management fee mechanism is seen as a critical change that will link fund company revenues to investor returns, potentially altering the commercial model of public funds [3][4]. - Large fund companies are expected to issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds as floating fee products within a year, which may lead to a divergence in strategies between large and small firms [3][4]. - Smaller fund companies may adopt a "small but beautiful" strategy to capture excess returns while maintaining flexibility in decision-making [4]. Group 3: Performance Evaluation and Investor Focus - The action plan emphasizes a systematic reform of the performance evaluation mechanisms for fund companies, focusing on long-term investment returns and investor experiences [6][7]. - The new evaluation criteria will prioritize investment performance over scale, encouraging a shift towards enhancing long-term investment philosophies [7][9]. - Fund managers' compensation structures are expected to change significantly, promoting a "reward the excellent, limit the poor" approach, which will enhance the focus on research and investment capabilities [8][9]. Group 4: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The action plan is anticipated to influence public fund investment behaviors in the medium to long term, with a potential decrease in turnover rates and a greater emphasis on stable investment returns [10][11]. - There may be a shift towards higher allocations in low-volatility, high-dividend products, particularly in sectors like banking, which have historically been underweighted [11]. - The reforms could lead to increased inflows of medium to long-term capital into the A-share market, enhancing market resilience and potentially increasing the proportion of equity funds [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Deng Haiqing as the fund manager of the China Aviation Mixed Reform Selected Fund has raised concerns, but he clarified that it is unrelated to the recent public fund reform policies regarding manager compensation [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Manager Resignation - Deng Haiqing resigned from his position as the fund manager on May 6, 2025, due to internal work adjustments within the company [4]. - Following his resignation, Fang Cen has taken over the management of the fund, while Deng continues to serve as the company's Deputy General Manager and Chief Investment Officer [1][4]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Strategy - During Deng's tenure from December 4, 2023, to May 6, 2025, the fund experienced a total loss of 13.45%, significantly underperforming its benchmark by 21.64%, ranking 3643 out of 4028 in its category [5]. - The fund's strategy has been closely tied to the real estate sector, with major holdings in companies like Vanke A and continuous investments in several other real estate firms over multiple quarters [6]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - On May 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a new action plan aimed at promoting high-quality development in public funds, which includes performance-based compensation adjustments for fund managers [5].

报 告 摘 要 一、 事件快评 5月7日，中国证监会公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，主要从1）优化 主动管理权益类基金收费模式；2）强化基金公司与投资者的利益绑定；3）提升行业服 务投资者的能力；4）提高公募基金权益投资的规模和稳定性；5）一体推进强监管防风 险促高质量发展等五个方面出发提出了25条举措。 二、 公募改革新规下的机构潜在调仓行为分析 根据《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》的要求，业绩基准成为评价基金业绩与基金 管理人考核的重要参照指标，对基金未来的持仓起指引作用。 本文从行业与个股两个方面，测算公募基金相对各自基准的平均超低配权重以及超低配 总金额。总体来看，根据基金最新披露的2024年年报数据看， 公募基金超配金额较多的 中信一级行业为电子、机械、基础化工、电新、医药；低配金额较多的行业包括非银金 融、银行、电力及公用事业、建筑、煤炭等。 未来随着公募基金改革方案的落地，机构资金可能会在超低配的行业与个股间迁移流 动。 一 推行浮动管理费收取机制，强化基金公司收入与投资者利益联结 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称方案）对新设立的主动管理权益类基金大力推行基于业绩比较基 ...