Core Viewpoint - The Dutch Cooperative Bank indicates that the Japanese yen may experience short-term volatility due to tariff uncertainties, but is expected to gradually recover in the long term [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The potential threat of high tariffs from the U.S. on the Japanese economy is negatively affecting Japan's growth outlook [1] - This situation has weakened market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's ability to raise interest rates [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - If there are signs that Japan will not face the proposed 25% tariffs from President Trump, the yen is likely to be boosted [1] - The Dutch Cooperative Bank forecasts that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the USD/JPY exchange rate could fall to 140 within 12 months [1]

Group 1 - Mizuho Securities warns that U.S. tariffs may have a significant impact on the global industrial ecosystem, affecting not only the taxed products but also related supply chains and industry networks, leading to a chain reaction [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists highlight the high volatility in the current financial landscape driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, with potential fiscal issues in the U.S. or U.K. being a source of volatility [1] - Apollo Global Management economists caution that stagflation risks will complicate Fed Chair Powell's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts, with only one rate cut expected this year despite increased forecasts for unemployment and inflation [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategists note that the U.S. dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, which is a significant benefit for U.S. companies, especially large-cap stocks, due to their high overseas revenue exposure [3] - The trend towards a more fragmented global order is expected to lead to sustained inflation and rising interest rates, as central banks may adopt tightening monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures [2] - Temasek's Chief Investment Officer anticipates an economic recovery by the end of the year as uncertainties around tariffs diminish, alongside the implementation of Fed rate cuts and deregulation policies [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the indirect risks posed by trade disruptions, which are often difficult to quantify and may not immediately reflect in financial statements. Understanding supply chain data is crucial for assessing the financial impact of trade situations [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Risks and Supply Chain Analysis - Investors should analyze a company's broader economic exposure rather than just its registered location, as revenue may span multiple regions, each facing different risks, especially amid escalating trade tensions [3][5]. - FactSet's tools, including GeoRev, supply chain relationships, and RBICS data, assist investors in quantifying a company's true risk exposure by revealing undisclosed regional risks and potential disruption points within the supply chain [3][4]. - The combination of these tools enables a more accurate assessment of a company's risk exposure in key geographic areas, supply chain vulnerabilities, and industry risks, facilitating better strategic positioning [4]. Group 2: Case Study of Vuzix Corp - Vuzix Corp, despite having minimal direct revenue from China (estimated at 2.1%), may still face indirect vulnerabilities due to its multi-tier supply chain, which includes dependencies on upstream partners affected by trade tensions [5][10]. - The analysis of Vuzix's supply chain reveals that indirect risks can arise from dependencies on suppliers like Texas Instruments, which has significant revenue exposure to China and the EU [16][19]. - Understanding the entire ecosystem of a company, including first and second-tier suppliers, is essential for evaluating its resilience against market disruptions [10][19]. Group 3: Importance of Comprehensive Risk Assessment - The article highlights the necessity of identifying indirect risk exposures, particularly for companies with significant revenue from the U.S. and dependencies on Chinese suppliers [26][29]. - By integrating GeoRev, supply chain relationships, and RBICS, investors can uncover indirect risks often overlooked in traditional disclosures, leading to more informed decision-making in a complex market environment [29][30].

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街对标普500指数的看涨情绪升温，高盛和美国银行均上调了该指数的目标位，原 因是大型上市公司表现强劲、债券收益率下降以及美联储宽松政策早于预期。 高盛分析师David Kostin表示："不断变化的关税形势给我们的盈利预测带来了很大的不确定性，我们2025年 的盈利预测与市场普遍预期基本一致，但2026年的盈利预测低于市场普遍预期。我们每股收益预测面临的 主要下行风险是最终的关税水平及其对企业利润的影响。" 美国银行预计短期内股市上涨空间有限，并认为在盈利信号不一以及短期内缺乏利率催化剂的情况下，该 指数将在第三季度横盘整理。 Subramanian表示："记住，股价回报只是故事的一半——股息在未来可能会发挥更大的作用。在零利率政策 期间，股息增长滞后于收益增长，这降低了现金回报的重要性。" 高盛目前预计标普500指数到年底将升至6600点，12个月内将达到6900点，较此前的预测分别上调了6%和 11%，理由是美联储将更早采取降息行动。这是高盛策略师两个月内第二次上调预期，也是今年第四次调整 标普500指数目标位，反映出华尔街策略师在关税不确定性时期面临的挑战。 高盛再次上调标普50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is putting pressure on the economy and investments, highlighting the need for a timely trade agreement with the United States [1] Group 1 - The postponement of tariffs until August 1 will provide the European Union with additional time to negotiate [1] - A quicker resolution of trade agreements with the United States is deemed beneficial for the EU [1]

欧盟委员会执行副主席东布罗夫斯基斯：关税不确定性对经济和投资造成了压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike until 2026 [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - Ongoing tariff issues lack clarity, potentially postponing the Bank of Japan's tightening of monetary policy [1] - The basic forecast remains that Tokyo will reach an agreement with Washington to avoid a 25% tariff threat [1] - If an agreement is reached soon without significant tariff increases, the rationale for a rate hike in October remains intact [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current inflation rates are significantly higher than the Bank of Japan's May forecast [1] - The Japanese economy has performed relatively well so far [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Economist Marcel Thieliant indicates that any delays in negotiations or substantial tariff increases could lead the central bank to postpone rate hikes until next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - South Korea aims to enhance trade negotiations with the United States to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes and eliminate uncertainties caused by tariffs [1] Group 1 - South Korea is focusing on strengthening trade talks with the U.S. [1] - The objective is to create a win-win situation for both countries [1] - The initiative seeks to address and reduce uncertainties related to tariffs [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates, the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US, and the traditional consumption off - season are intertwined. However, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and inventory may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, are all in a reasonable range. Due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the increasing trend of domestic refined tin operating capacity and social inventory, and the expected suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][10]. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Myanmar's Wa State's Manxiang mine resumed production in late April, but due to strict mining license approval, reduced approved capacity, and the change of export tax from cash to physical tax, the actual capacity ramp - up is slow (the initial increase is no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period is required). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo on April 9 (production in 2024 and 2025 is 17,300 and 20,000 tons respectively), and the power system repair takes more than 3 months. China's tin ore production and imports in July increased month - on - month [3][21]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared with last week, and China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][28]. - Malaysia's MSC smelting company suspended tin production due to a natural gas pipeline explosion on April 1. Indonesia's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may compress medium - and long - term export quotas. PT Timah plans to increase tin production and sales in 2025. China's refined tin imports in July may increase month - on - month [30][32]. Demand - side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July increased (increased) month - on - month, and the import (export) volume of solder strips in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][34][38]. - China's tin - plated sheet production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][42][44]. - China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, it may affect tin demand [46][49]. Market Indicators - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both in a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are positive and in a reasonable range, and the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [8][10]. - The social inventory of refined tin in China increased compared with last week, and the inventories of SHFE, LME, and domestic tin ingots also increased [11][13]. - The domestic tin ore processing fee is in a downward trend, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [15][17].

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].