Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the latest non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 110,000 new jobs in June, a decrease from the initially reported 139,000 in May, and an anticipated unemployment rate increase of 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The recent ADP report indicates a net decrease of approximately 33,000 private sector jobs in June, contrasting with market expectations of a net increase of 115,000 jobs, highlighting a trend of hiring stagnation [1][2] - Economic experts suggest that the weak job growth is not due to a lack of demand but rather uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which has led companies to pause hiring [2][3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate may appear optimistic due to a shrinking labor force, with foreign labor accounting for a significant portion of labor force growth since February 2020 [3] - Other indicators show that hiring activity is at a ten-year low, with layoffs still occurring in both federal and private sectors, despite a slight decrease in layoff announcements compared to last year [3] - Multiple headwinds, including higher interest rates, slowed immigration, and federal budget cuts, are contributing to the deceleration of job growth, which may further weaken market resilience before the full impact of tariffs is felt [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - **Bearish**: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - **Gold**: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - **Silver**: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Maintains a strong operation [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - **Tin**: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - **Sinter**: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - **Ferroalloy**: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - **Glass**: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - **Logs**: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - **BR Rubber**: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - **PTA**: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - **PE**: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - **Chlor - Alkali**: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - **Container Shipping European Line**: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is expected to perform poorly due to potential economic slowdown and other risks [1] Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth may slow down, impacting the performance of the Thai Baht [1] - The Constitutional Court's suspension of the Prime Minister could delay the passage of the national budget, potentially leading to reduced fiscal support and further economic slowdown [1] Currency Forecast - Mitsubishi UFJ forecasts the USD/THB exchange rate to be 33.20 in Q3 and 33.50 in Q4 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Alumina, Soda Ash, Glass, Polyolefins, Rubber, Crude Oil [1][2][8][10] - **Bullish**: Stocks Index, Copper, Aluminum, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1][4] - **Range - bound**: Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Nickel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Steel (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore) [1][4][6] - **Neutral**: Methanol [8] 2. Core Views - The A - share market shows strong resilience with clear policy support, and the stock index is expected to move up gradually as market sentiment improves [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] - Precious metals prices are in high - level oscillations due to tariff policy uncertainties, but the long - term upward logic remains valid [1] - For various commodities, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy uncertainties are the main factors affecting price trends 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - A - shares strengthened on Monday, with the science - innovation sector leading the rise. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.52 trillion yuan. The defense industry and media sectors led the gains, while the banking and non - bank financial sectors declined [1] - The domestic PMI index rose by 0.2% in June, indicating an overall expansion of the economic climate. Overseas, tariff uncertainties increased as the US tariff suspension period neared its end [1] - The stock index is expected to have an upward - moving central range as market sentiment remains optimistic [1] 3.2 Treasury Bonds - The bond market weakened across the board yesterday, with the equity market performing strongly. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant [1] - The central bank continued net injections in the open market. Although the capital cost increased due to the end - of - quarter factor, it remained relatively stable [1] - The bond market lacks directional drivers, and upward momentum is weak due to high market congestion and high valuations [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - With less than 9 days left until the end of the tariff suspension period, the uncertainty of tariff policies has increased. Trump may announce a new tariff framework on July 4th [1] - The short - term price of gold is in high - level oscillations, but the long - term upward logic remains valid. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of correction [4] - It is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [4] 3.4 Base Metals Copper - The copper price remained in high - level oscillations. The domestic PMI data was good, and the US dollar index continued to decline [4] - The mid - year smelting and processing fee for Antofagasta was set at 0 yuan/ton, the lowest in history, indicating a continued tight supply of ore [4] - The non - US inventory continued to decline, and the domestic spot premium was rising. The copper price has support at the bottom [4] Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price oscillated in the morning and declined at night. The Shanghai aluminum price remained in high - level oscillations [4] - Although there are concerns about future ore supply, the import ore price is stable, and the inventory is high. The alumina surplus situation remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short at high prices [4] - The supply of Shanghai aluminum is limited by production capacity, and the demand is uncertain. The low inventory and supply constraints still support the price [4] Nickel - The supply of high - grade laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the price is firm. The supply of ferronickel is abundant, but downstream demand is weak [4] - The production of refined nickel is no longer growing rapidly, but the surplus situation is difficult to improve in the short term [4] - The nickel price lacks directional drivers and is in a range - bound state. Selling options is a relatively better strategy [4] 3.5 Chemical Commodities Soda Ash - The production of Soda Ash by Yuanxing Energy has recovered, and the daily output has exceeded 100,000 tons. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the inventory is high [8] - It is recommended to hold short positions in the Soda Ash 09 contract and the long - glass 01 - short - soda ash 01 arbitrage strategy [8] Float Glass - The average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas dropped to 93%. The deep - processing orders decreased, and the production increased [8] - The supply surplus situation of glass remains unchanged, and it is advisable to short when the basis converges to a low level [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium ore has stabilized, but the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand. The production continues to increase, while the downstream demand is weak [4] - The lithium carbonate price will be under pressure [4] Methanol - The production in June was 8.62 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.67 million tons in July. The production will decrease significantly in August due to increased maintenance [8] - The apparent demand increased by 8.8% in the first half of the year, and the supply is expected to tighten from August to September and November to December, supporting the price [8] Polyolefins - In June, the PE production was 2.61 million tons, and the PP production was 3.34 million tons. In July, the production is expected to increase to 2.7 million tons for PE and 3.4 million tons for PP [10] - Due to the off - season and increased supply, the polyolefin futures are expected to decline further [10] 3.6 Steel and Minerals Rebar - The spot price of rebar increased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The inventory increased for the first time last week [6] - The construction PMI index rebounded significantly in June, and infrastructure construction may progress rapidly. The supply - demand contradiction is limited [6] - The steelmaking cost has a significant impact on the price. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery in the next two weeks [6] Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil increased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The manufacturing PMI index was better than expected, but the demand recovery was slow [6] - The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coil is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the coal mine supply recovery [6] Iron Ore - The daily output of molten iron is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. The import of iron ore will decline in July [6] - The supply - demand structure of iron ore will be less loose in July, and the price will move in a range [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The inventory of mines has reached an inflection point, and the replenishment of steel and coking enterprises exceeded expectations. The trading atmosphere has improved [8] - The coking coal price is expected to continue to rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions [8] Coke - The coking profit is at the break - even point, and the initiative to increase production is insufficient. The demand for coke is supported by the high molten iron output [8] - The coke spot market may have a price increase trend, and the futures price is likely to be strong [8] 3.8 Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East remain. OPEC countries may increase production in August [8] - The market driver has shifted to the supply side, and it is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ production plan [8] 3.9 Agricultural Products Cotton - In China, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect new cotton growth, and the commercial inventory is decreasing. In the US, the drought area is shrinking [10] - The demand is in the off - season, but the downstream opening rate has not decreased significantly, and the inventory is being depleted [10] - The cotton price is expected to be well - supported [10] Rubber - The demand for rubber is weak due to high inventory in the tire industry. The upstream rubber tapping is progressing smoothly, and the supply is increasing [10] - The port inventory is accumulating rapidly, and the rubber price is expected to decline in oscillations [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum Oxide [1] - Bearish: Zinc (for short - term short - selling opportunity), Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil (if no significant reduction in US soybean acreage), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PVC, LPG [1] - Neutral: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Zinc (in general), Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Iron Ore, Silicon Iron, Glass, Coking Coal, Coke, Canola Oil, Cotton, Corn, Bean Meal (MO9), Logs, Pig Futures, PTA, Styrene, Other Chemicals [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and it's necessary to pay attention to macro - incremental information for index direction guidance. The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The overall macro sentiment has improved, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen. Attention should be paid to tariff - related progress and domestic and foreign economic data changes [1]. - For different commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, macro policies, and international relations. For example, the supply recovery expectation of some metals is strong, while the demand shows signs of weakening, but the macro - sentiment improvement leads to price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summaries by Industry Macro - Financial - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate as the asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate. Gold may be under short - term pressure due to improved market risk preference, but high tariff uncertainty prevents continuous decline. Silver is mainly in short - term oscillation [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, and aluminum oxide are expected to be bullish in the short - term due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, improved market risk preference, and low inventory levels [1]. - Zinc price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, but there is an opportunity to short at the high - rebound level due to strong supply - recovery expectation and weakening demand [1]. - Nickel price rebounds from the short - term bottom but has limited upward space. There is still pressure from primary nickel oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term interval operation and short - selling hedging on rebounds are recommended [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate and rebound in the short - term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. There is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Tin price rebounds under improved macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to the import situation of Wa State tin ore [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is loose, and there is no upward price - driving force. For iron ore, there is an expectation of iron - water peak, and the supply may increase in June [1]. - Silicon iron price is expected to oscillate with weak supply - demand and approaching the off - season [1]. - Glass price is expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - surplus concern resurfaces, and the terminal demand is weak [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are bearish. In the context of over - capacity, the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil price is expected to decline as the supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating after the stagnation or decline of crude oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil price is expected to be bearish if the USDA report does not significantly reduce the US soybean acreage [1]. - Canola oil price is expected to oscillate before the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is announced [1]. - Cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. There are short - term disturbances in the US cotton market, and the domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - Corn price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended after the production situation is clearer [1]. - Bean meal (MO9) is expected to oscillate. There is an expectation of import - cost increase in the fourth quarter, and long - position opportunities at low prices for the November and January contracts are recommended [1]. - Pulp price is bearish due to the decline in foreign - market quotes, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1]. - Log price is expected to be weak as it is in the off - season and the supply decline is limited despite the foreign - market price increase [1]. - Pig futures are expected to be stable. Although the live - pig inventory is being repaired and the slaughter weight is increasing, the short - term spot is less affected by slaughter, and the decline is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are bearish as the Middle - East geopolitical situation cools down, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1]. - Asphalt price is affected by cost drag, possible increase in Shandong's consumption - tax refund, and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber price is affected by weakening downstream demand, strong supply - release expectation, and slightly increased inventory [1]. - BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The BR premium has been withdrawn, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and the factory - ex price of butadiene rubber has been lowered [1]. - PTA price is expected to oscillate. The basis continues to weaken, the Northeast PX device maintenance is postponed, and the overseas PX device maintenance leads to a relatively strong PX performance [1]. - Styrene price: The device load has recovered, the inventory is concentrated, and the basis has strengthened significantly [1]. - Other chemicals such as PVC, caustic soda, and LPG are expected to be bearish. PVC is affected by the end of maintenance, new - device production, and the seasonal off - season. LPG has downward space due to factors such as geopolitical - situation mitigation, seasonal off - season, and increased inflow of low - price foreign goods [1]. Other - It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak - reaching time advanced. The shipping capacity deployment will be sufficient in the following weeks [1].

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Economic Overview - In April 2025, Canada's real GDP decreased by 0.1%, ending the growth trend observed in March [1] - The goods-producing sector experienced an overall decline of 0.6%, with manufacturing being a significant drag, falling by 1.9% [1] - Durable and non-durable goods manufacturing dropped by 2.2% and 1.6% respectively, indicating negative impacts from tariff uncertainties on transportation equipment manufacturing and the food and oil industries [1] Service Sector Performance - The service-producing sector saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with public administration, finance and insurance, and arts and entertainment contributing to this growth [2] - The finance and insurance sector grew by 0.7%, marking the largest increase since August 2024, driven by high-frequency trading activities due to U.S. tariff announcements [2] - The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector achieved a growth of 2.8%, primarily due to increased attendance at NHL playoff games in Canada [2] Trade and Resource Sector Insights - The wholesale trade sector declined by 1.9%, significantly impacted by reduced imports and exports in motor vehicles and parts [7] - In the resource sector, while the oil and gas extraction sub-sector was affected by decreased natural gas and crude oil production, oil and gas support activities saw an increase due to rising drilling activities [7] Government Financials - In Q1 2025, the total deficit for all levels of government in Canada was CAD 12.4 billion, a reduction of CAD 19.6 billion compared to the same period last year [7] - The federal government significantly reduced its deficit to CAD 8.7 billion, while provincial and territorial governments faced pressures from increased spending and reduced revenues [7] Future Economic Outlook - The real GDP is expected to continue declining by 0.1% in May 2025, indicating challenges for short-term economic growth [7] - Growth in real estate rental activities may partially offset declines in other sectors [7] - The economic situation reflects the impact of global trade tensions on Canada's manufacturing and export-oriented industries, while also highlighting the supportive role of the service sector and other areas in economic growth [7]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is close to its historical high, but the upcoming earnings season poses a significant test for the market [1] - Wall Street expects a 2.8% year-over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies in Q2, the smallest increase in two years [2] - Only 6 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 are expected to see profit growth, marking the lowest number of growing sectors since Q1 2023 [2] Group 2 - Concerns over tariffs and geopolitical risks are contributing to a bleak outlook for the upcoming earnings season [5] - FedEx and General Mills have issued warnings about lower-than-expected profits due to a "global demand environment uncertainty" [5] - The energy sector is projected to experience the largest profit decline in Q2, with a year-over-year drop of 25.5% [5] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the forecasts for the upcoming earnings season may be overly conservative, with some expecting a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [6] - Despite strong quarterly performance, concerns about tariff uncertainties may not be fully alleviated [6] - A survey of 169 CEOs indicated that expectations and plans for the next six months have been adjusted downward due to ongoing tariff issues [6]

新华财经北京6月27日电根据路透社进行的一项调查，在经历了5月份的下降之后，韩国6月份的出口预 计会因为科技产品需求强劲而出现反弹。然而，面对美国关税政策的不确定性，经济学家们对此保持警 惕。 在6月23日至6月26日期间进行的调查中，10位经济学家的预估中值显示，韩国6月份出口预计同比增长 4.7%。这与5月份1.3%的降幅形成了对比，标志着四个月以来首次下降后的恢复。 （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，调查还预测韩国6月进口将增长6.9%，达到自2024年7月以来的最快增速，相比之下，5月份 的进口则下降了5.3%。韩国作为每月首个公布贸易数据的主要出口经济体，计划于7月1日发布6月份的 数据。 本月前20天的数据提供了积极信号，其中半导体出口激增21.8%，汽车出口增长9.2%，推动整体出口增 长至8.3%。尽管如此，韩国对中国出口却出现了1.0%的下滑，而对美国的出口则增长了4.3%。 为了应对关税带来的不确定性，韩国首席贸易谈判代表本周访问了美国，并与美方官员进行了贸易谈 判，双方重申了致力于尽早达成关税协议的决心。不过，Meritz Securities的经济学家Stephen Lee警告 说：" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：关税不确定性在四月达到高点。 ...