钯：缓慢追涨 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 1 日 铂：受白银引领上行 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 435. 55 | | 1.22% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 432. 36 | | 0.72% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 1683. 70 | | 3. 43% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1668. 50 | | 3.72% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 371.55 | | 0. 26% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 353.00 | | 1. 15% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1. 460. 00 | | 1.47% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1,448.16 | | 1. 18% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 广铂 | 24, 649 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨， | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：智能网联汽车将形成万亿元级消费领域。 | | | | | 2、 中钢协：2025 年 11 月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值，比 10 月上涨 78 元。 | | | | | 3、重庆：支持使用专项债券收回收购符合条件的存量闲置土地。 | | | | | 4、全联冶金商会会长龚盛强调，在全球贸易壁垒加剧、传统需求收缩的情况下， | | | | | 必须苦练内功创新发展，以自身的确定性应对外部的不确定性。民营钢铁企业要加 | | | | | 大研发投入，突破关键技术；推进智能化改造，提升生产效率；深化绿色化发展， | | | | | 构建绿色制造体系。 | | | | | 5、国家统计局数据显示，11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro data shows that in November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission will promote work to manage price disorderly competition [1]. - The fundamental data indicates that last week, the output of rebar was 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the apparent demand was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coil was 3.19 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. Overall, the industrial data last week was weak, with the output of the five major steel products increasing, the apparent demand remaining weak, and inventory continuing to decline [1]. - Overall, the supply - demand drive is not strong, inventory reduction provides support, but costs are weakening. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3110 | 21 | 0.68% | 6312460 | 2463988 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3302 | 7 | 0.21% | 1917388 | 876319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | 1179508 | 414346 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1067.0 | - 29.5 | - 2.69% | 5442929 | 862195 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1574.5 | - 58.0 | - 3.55% | 122587 | 48293 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating rebound. Steel inventory continued to decline, with both supply and demand decreasing. Supply contracted, leading to a rebound in futures prices, but the terminal market remained weak, with significant upward pressure [4]. - In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (unchanged) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+30) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3270 (+10) Yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The deputy director of the Building Energy Efficiency and Technology Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that urban renewal should be given more prominence and the construction of "four good" aspects should be systematically promoted [9]. - In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million units, with a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars reached 1.288 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [9]. - From November 17th to November 23rd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9193 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 36.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% [9]. - Six departments issued an implementation plan, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and create a number of high - quality consumer goods [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on price disorderly competition cost identification. It will promote work to manage price disorderly competition and maintain a good market price order [9]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points [9]. Relevant Charts - The content mainly includes charts related to the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [7][10][12]

风险提示及免责条款 中国11月RatingDog制造业PMI 49.9，前值 50.6。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - High-tech manufacturing continues to expand, with a PMI of 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, attributed to seasonal effects following the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [4] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in construction activity [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that while the manufacturing PMI shows slight recovery, it remains below the critical line, indicating ongoing downward pressure on the economy [5] - There is an expectation for increased investment and consumption demand as year-end approaches, supported by policy measures and the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - The overall economic stability is contingent on the effective implementation of policies to boost market confidence and demand [6]

具体来说，澳大利亚制造业的新增订单出现8月以后首次增长，背后原因与企业采取有效的业务增长策 略并推出新产品有关。不过，在国际贸易环境疲软的背景下，新增出口订单已连续第三个月下滑。新增 订单的复苏推动工厂产出相应回升，而需求改善也推高了商业信心。11月，受访企业对未来一年产出的 乐观情绪较10月有所增强，多数企业期待业务扩展计划及预期的经济环境改善将带动销售增长。 为应对当前及未来的产出提升，澳大利亚制造业企业在11月增加用工。产能扩张帮助企业有效消化积压 订单，让积压订单量连续第七个月下降。企业同时小幅增加了采购活动，以补充库存来满足增产需求。 但受供应链延误影响，投入品库存以近一年来最快速度下降。受访企业普遍认为，供应短缺和航运及港 口周转问题是导致交货时间延长幅度达到去年12月以后最高水平的主因。另外，制造业承受的价格压力 在11月有所缓解，投入成本与产品销售价格的涨幅均较10月有所下降。受访企业表示，在竞争加剧的环 境下，它们难以将原材料、航运及供应商成本的上涨完全转嫁给客户。 标普全球经济学家潘婧怡表示，11月的新增订单和未来产出等前瞻性指标均预示着澳大利亚制造业的扩 张势头将在近期延续。制造业用工水 ...

记者从日前在长沙召开的全国促进民营经济发展壮大现场会上获悉，国家发展改革委将进一步拓宽市场准入空间，强化要素支持保障，加快组建国家创业投 资引导基金，切实增强民营企业获得感。（新华社） 商务部决定自12月1日起，对原产于日本、美国、韩国和马来西亚的进口聚苯硫醚所适用的反倾销措施进行期终复审调查。（新华财经） 11月制造业PMI升至49.2% 景气水平有所改善制造业企业信心增强 中国成为全球最大绿色债券市场今年绿债发行总额同比增长92%至1018亿美元全球占比达20% 主要产油国宣布维持明年前三个月暂停增产计划当前石油市场基本面稳健将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布数据显示，11月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 水平有所改善；生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强。非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比 上月下降0.6个百分点。综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。（新华财经） 11月，钢铁行业PMI为48%，比上月下降1.2个百分点 ...

来源：智通财经 国家统计局11月30日公布11月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 11月份，综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 产需两端有所改善，11月制造业PMI小幅回升 11月制造业PMI较前值小幅回升0.2个百分点至49.2%，基本符合市场预期。不过，该指数已连续8个月处于荣枯线下方。 在需求端恢复的背景下，企业生产意愿也有所提振，11月生产指数在上月短暂降至收缩区间后回到荣枯线水平。 11月主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为53.6%、48.2%，较上月提高1.1、0.7个百分点，财信研究院宏观团队认为，反内卷政策带动 相关行业供需格局改善以及国际有色金属价格继续回升是主要支撑，但主要原材料价格指数高于50%荣枯线，而出厂价格指数继续处于收缩区 间，表明价格回升仍集中于上游环节，中下游行业的价格传导仍受制于终端需求不足。预计11月份PPI环比继续保持微增，同比约下降2.1%左右， 全年延续负增格局。 11月非 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in non-manufacturing sentiment [1][4] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting overall economic stability [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2%, with most sub-indices showing improvement, indicating a stabilization in production activities and a recovery in demand [2] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month [2] - The new export orders index rose to 47.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in export demand [2] - The purchasing price index for raw materials increased to 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating rising input costs [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, continuing to show growth for ten consecutive months [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, reflecting a slowdown primarily due to high base effects from the previous holiday season [4] - The service sector index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating a decline in service-related activities [4] - Financial services and information services showed strong performance, with indices above 55%, indicating robust activity in these sectors [4] Enterprise Size Analysis - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - Medium-sized enterprises' PMI increased to 48.9%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating slight improvement [3] - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in sentiment [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the slight recovery in manufacturing PMI indicates improved market confidence, but caution that the index remains below the neutral line, highlighting ongoing economic pressures [5] - There is a call for enhanced macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic growth [5][6] - Anticipated policy support and year-end demand are expected to release investment and consumption-related needs, contributing to a stable economic finish for the year [6]

每经AI快讯，12月1日，澳大利亚11月标普全球制造业PMI终值报51.6，前值51.6。 ...