标普全球市场情报经济学家乌萨玛·巴蒂 (Usamah Bhatti) 表示："据制造商称，（韩国）严峻的国内经济 形势和美国关税的影响对该行业造成了最大压力，阻碍了销售和生产水平。" 但与此同时，东亚的另外两大重要经济体——日本和韩国的制造业PMI却双双萎缩。这表明美国特朗普 关税给日韩的制造业活动带来了不小的冲击，东亚经济复苏的压力也随之加大。 日韩制造业活动双双萎缩 数据显示，日本和韩国8月份的制造业活动均出现萎缩，突显出东亚经济在面临美国关税冲击的压力增 大。 数据显示，日本8月制造业PMI终值仅报49.7，尽管较7月份的48.9有所改善，但已经连续两个月低于50 的荣枯线门槛。由于欧美等主要市场的需求疲软，日本获得的海外新订单以2024年3月以来的最快速度 下降。 标普全球市场情报公司经济副总监安娜贝尔•菲德斯（Annabel Fiddes）表示："特别令人担忧的是， （日本）新出口订单的下降幅度越来越大，降幅已经为近一年半来最大。" 调查还显示，日本企业的商业信心已经跌至三个月来的最低点。日本受访者们表示，他们对海内外客户 需求、国内人口老龄化和美国关税都感到担忧。 相比于日本，韩国的情况似乎更加糟 ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. July core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations[3] - From January to July, state-owned enterprises' total profits amounted to 24,786.4 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.3% year-on-year[3] - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to August reached 23,270.5 billion CNY, down 13.3% year-on-year[3] Market Trends - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.82 basis points to 3.619%[3] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.70 basis points to 3.694%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.31 basis points to 4.224%[3] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 21,455.55, down 1.15%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,544.88, down 0.20%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,460.26, down 0.64%[5] Foreign Exchange and Commodities - The U.S. dollar to CNY exchange rate was 7.13, down 0.08%[5] - The price of Brent crude oil was $68.12, down 0.73%[5] - The spot price of gold was $3,446.81, up 0.91%[5]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

受新订单增加的推动，中国8月制造业景气回升，重回荣枯线上方。 9月1日周一，标普全球公布数据显示，中国8月标普全球制造业PMI为50.5，前值为49.5。 价格方面，平均投入成本涨幅创九个月来最快。与此同时，销售价格趋于稳定，结束了连续八个月的降 价行情。 新订单的增加支撑了 8月制造业产出的再次扩张，这是过去三个月内制造业产出的第二次增长。专家小 组成员表示，基础需求状况的改善和成功的促销活动支撑了新订单的最新增长。 新订单增速不高创下3月份以来最快。企业表示，销售额的增长主要得益于国内需求的增强，而新出口 订单则略有下降。 新订单流入的强劲增长也导致8月积压订单再次增加。未完成订单的增长速度创下六个月以来的新高。 尽管产能压力加大，制造商在人员配置方面仍保持谨慎，连续第五个月选择裁员。 制造业企业对未来一年产出前景的信心依然乐观。由于预期经济状况将改善，且企业扩张计划将有助于 推动未来12个月的新增销售，商品生产商的信心达到3月份以来的最高水平。 此前公布的数据显示，中国8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至49.4，新订单指数升至49.5，制造业景气水平 同样有所改善。 受新订单增加的推动，8月制造业生产恢复增 ...

资讯编辑：刘佳惠 021-26093916 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 中国8月RatingDog制造业PMI为50.5，预期49.7，前值49.5。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August 2025 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, suggesting a modest recovery in manufacturing activity [1][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an overall improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][5]. - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion for the fourth consecutive month [3][6]. - The new orders index is at 49.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a minor improvement in market demand [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs are reported at 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, both showing increases and indicating strong performance in these sectors [9]. - The consumer goods industry PMI is at 49.2%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating weak terminal demand [9]. - The high-energy-consuming industries PMI is at 48.2%, reflecting a continuous recovery trend [9]. Group 3: Price Indices and Market Expectations - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [9][10]. - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August 2025 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous month, with production and demand indices showing recovery [1][5]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1][5]. - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated production expansion for four consecutive months [1][5]. - The new orders index is at 49.5%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a minor improvement in market demand [1][5]. Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 51.9%, and equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, both showing increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, indicating sustained expansion in these sectors [2][7]. - The consumer goods sector PMI is at 49.2%, reflecting a decline of 0.3 percentage points, indicating weak terminal demand [7]. - The high-energy consumption sector PMI is at 48.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a continuous recovery in this area [7]. Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion territory [7]. - The factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold, indicating a slowing decline [7]. - The difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 4.2 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing profit margin in the manufacturing sector [2][7]. Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturers [2][8]. - This index has reached its highest level since April, reflecting a recovery in business sentiment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure, although there are signs of improvement due to policy measures and reduced extreme weather impacts [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1]. - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the production index is at 50.8%, reflecting a stable expansion in production activities [4]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a continued rise in raw material prices, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking the highest level this year [4][5]. - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Economic Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for August is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting improved market confidence and expectations for future economic performance [6]. - Positive factors are accumulating, leading to expectations of continued economic recovery in September and the fourth quarter, with stable demand and production activities in the manufacturing sector [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9]. - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high, while certain industries like retail and real estate remain below the critical point, indicating weaker performance [9][10]. - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in production due to adverse weather conditions [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for September 2025, including employment data and manufacturing indices in the US and China [1][2] - Key dates include the US non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's economic conditions report, which are critical for assessing economic health [1] - The article highlights the importance of consumer confidence indices in both the Eurozone and the US, which are expected to influence market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The article mentions the release of China's August trade balance and M2 money supply data, which are significant for understanding the country's economic performance [1] - It also notes upcoming monetary policy decisions from major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, which could impact global financial markets [1][2] - The article outlines the importance of oil inventory data in the context of energy markets, particularly in relation to US crude oil production [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the factors affecting the bond market. The positive factors include a stable and loose capital supply, which provides continuous liquidity support and eases the pressure on the bond market, and the slower - than - expected issuance of government bonds, which reduces supply and eases concerns about the "asset shortage". The negative factors are that the manufacturing PMI has risen above 50, enhancing the expectation of economic improvement and suppressing the demand for bonds, and the 10 - year treasury bond variety has undergone shock adjustments, increasing the potential profit - taking pressure and weighing on market sentiment. The trading advice is to pay attention to the allocation value of the 10 - year treasury bond yield in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and seize the trading opportunities [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Figures 3.1 Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/04 [4]. 3.2 Interest Rates - The trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 are shown [4]. 3.3 Bond Term Spreads - The trends of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [4]. 3.4 Bond Futures Positions - The positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are shown [6]. 3.5 Bond Futures Trading Volumes - The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/04 are presented [7]. 3.6 Bond Futures Basis - The trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures for the current - quarter contracts are shown from different time periods: 02/29 - 10/31 for 2 - year, 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 5 - year, 02/29 - 10/31 for 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [8][9][10][14]. 3.7 Bond Futures Inter - delivery Spreads - The trends of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented from different time periods: 2024/04 - 2025/04 for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year, and 2023/06 - 2025/06 for 30 - year [12][13][15][16]. 3.8 Bond Futures Cross - variety Spreads - The trends of the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/04 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are presented [17][18].