Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight gains with the three major indices rising, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks, with over 3100 stocks in the green and a half-day trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan, down 24.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.55% [1] - Recent market structure has shown significant differentiation, with large tech stocks leading the market while other sectors rotate quickly [1] Sector Performance Gold Sector - The gold and precious metals sector surged, with multiple stocks such as Western Gold and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [2] - New York gold futures rose nearly 1% to a historical high of $3550 per ounce, while spot gold increased to $3482.2 per ounce [2] - Several international financial institutions are bullish on gold prices, with UBS raising its 2026 price target to $3700 per ounce and Bank of America predicting a peak of $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [2] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector strengthened, with companies like BeiGene and Maiwei Biotech reaching historical highs [3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration recently published a preliminary list of innovative drugs for 2025, featuring new drugs and CAR-T products [3] - Structural allocation in innovative drugs is recommended as they rapidly develop towards internationalization [3] Chip Sector - Chip stocks experienced a rise and subsequent pullback, with stocks like Liyang Chip hitting the daily limit [4] - Positive news includes Alibaba's AI product revenue growth and Goldman Sachs raising the target price for Cambricon to 2104 yuan [4] - The restructuring plan of Huahong Semiconductor, which involves acquiring a 97.5% stake in Huali Micro, has been announced [4] Institutional Insights Market Outlook - According to招商证券, the probability of the market maintaining a bullish trend in September remains high, although the slope may be slower compared to August [5] - The key drivers for upward movement are the accumulation of profit effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds [5] - Focus areas include AI computing, semiconductor autonomy, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Investment Recommendations - 中信证券 suggests focusing on resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, chemicals, gaming, and military industries in September [6] - The potential for a weaker dollar due to possible Fed rate cuts may catalyze a new round of growth in resource sectors, particularly precious metals and copper [6] - The innovative drug sector is expected to see an increase in catalytic events, with recent market adjustments clearing out short-term speculative funds [6] Market Structure - 东方证券 notes that the market is likely to continue a strong oscillating pattern in September, with major indices still having upward momentum but limited space for growth [6] - High-end manufacturing, domestic substitution, and anti-involution sectors are identified as having potential for rebound [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with key indices showing positive movements, particularly in sectors like chips, solid-state batteries, and digital currencies, while other sectors like military and finance are underperforming [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.57%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.23% [1]. - Chip stocks continued to perform strongly, with companies like Tailin Micro and Liyang Chip hitting the daily limit, and others like Huahong Semiconductor and Allwinner Technology rising over 10% [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to招商证券, the market is likely to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, driven by the accumulation of profit effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds [3]. - 中信证券 suggests focusing on four key areas for investment in September: resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics, and military sectors, highlighting the potential for precious metals and copper due to a possible Fed rate cut [4]. - 东方证券 indicates that the market structure is showing significant differentiation, with technology stocks leading the market, and anticipates a continued oscillating upward trend for major indices, although the upward space may be limited [5].

Group 1 - The potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction, industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation, and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The number of innovative drug catalysts is expected to increase significantly in September, and the recent technology switch has cleared out short-term speculative funds, allowing innovative drugs to continue their upward trajectory after this round of adjustments [2] - The market is likely to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, driven by the accumulation of profit effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds, validating the logic of recommending stocks that have overcome loss resistance [4] - The market is expected to remain active with a focus on low penetration sectors such as AI computing power, semiconductor autonomy, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and innovative drugs [5] Group 3 - The market is anticipated to operate at a high center with a phase of oscillation and consolidation, supported by active trading and positive policy expectations, while external conditions remain stable [6] - The current market sentiment is high, with significant inflows of incremental funds, particularly from financing, leading to a further acceleration of market growth [7] - The market structure is expected to show significant differentiation, with a focus on alternating upward movements across various sectors to ensure a stable and sustainable "healthy bull" market [8] Group 4 - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasingly entering the A-share market, enhancing the strategic strength and stability of the market, contributing to the current "slow bull" trend [9] - The market is likely to experience oscillation with limited upward space, focusing on structural rotation rather than a broad-based rally, with defensive value in dividend stocks becoming more prominent [10] - The mid-term logic for technology sectors remains solid, with potential strategic opportunities arising from adjustments in September [10] Group 5 - The current bull market is supported by long-term factors such as the impending bottoming of the profit and economic cycle, a supportive funding environment, and positive signals from the industry [14] - The index center is expected to rise further, with a continuation of the total market value growth trend [14]

Group 1 - A number of actively managed equity funds are adjusting their product strategies to focus on semiconductor and computing power sectors related to the automotive industry, aiming to capture opportunities over the next 1 to 3 years [1][2] - The manager of the Hongyi Yuanfang Automotive Industry Upgrade Fund indicated that the fund will refine its investment direction to adapt to the new development stage of the industry, particularly in advanced semiconductor processes and ASICs, drawing parallels to the emergence of new energy vehicles around 2015 [2][4] - The fund has achieved over 70% returns in the past year, reflecting a broader trend where more funds are transforming their focus towards technology sectors, including robotics, with notable returns of 75% and 60% from other funds [2][4] Group 2 - The shift towards "hard technology" is driven by the long-term investment value seen in sectors like optical modules, liquid cooling, and computing chips, which have recently benefited from high growth in performance and unexpected downstream demand [4] - Data shows that four out of the top five ETFs by net subscription this year are technology-focused, with significant inflows into funds like the Fortune CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF, which saw nearly 44.5 billion units in net subscriptions [4] - Caution is advised regarding the transformation of funds, as historical instances have shown that concentrated shifts can lead to significant declines in fund value when market conditions change [4][5]

Group 1 - The current market is driven by incremental capital, with limited impact from fund redemption pressure on growth sectors like electronics, suggesting a potential shift towards public offerings and institutional dominance, which supports technology sectors such as semiconductor chips [1] - The expectation for domestic computing power has been reiterated, alongside discussions on emerging applications like 3D printing and liquid cooling technology, which may boost demand expectations in the chip industry [1] - The results of the 301 investigation concerning China's mature chips are expected to be announced by September 23, with potential market volatility due to technology controls and tariff policies, although short-term pressure is manageable as the Trump administration plans to suspend a 24% equivalent tariff until November 10 [1] Group 2 - The AI chip ecosystem at the edge consists of edge SoC, storage chips, sensor chips, and smart modules, with storage chips facing challenges in capacity, speed, and power consumption; Lianyun Technology has developed a product line from SATA to PCIe 4.0, targeting lightweight laptops and pre-installed markets [2] - The emphasis on semiconductor self-sufficiency continues, with ongoing iterations of domestic AI computing power chips and enhanced supply chain capabilities; the analog IC sector is experiencing volume growth with stable prices, and automotive-grade products are entering a replacement window, indicating direct support for the semiconductor sector [2] Group 3 - Related products include various ETFs such as the Sci-Tech Chip ETF Index (588920), New Energy ETF (159261), Semiconductor ETF (159813), and others [3] - Key associated stocks include Cambrian (688256), Haiguang Information (688041), and others within the semiconductor industry [3]

资料显示，芯片ETF（159995）跟踪国证芯片指数，30只成分股集合A股芯片产业中材料、设备、设 计、制造、封装和测试等龙头企业，其中包括中芯国际、寒武纪、长电科技、北方华创等。其场外联接 基金为，A类：008887；C类：008888。 8月19日上午，A股三大指数集体上涨，上证指数盘中上涨0.36%，通信、医药生物、房地产等板块涨幅 靠前，国防军工、非银金融跌幅居前。芯片科技股走强，截至9:56，芯片ETF（159995.SZ）上涨 0.22%，其成分股瑞芯微上涨4.54%，紫光国微上涨3.82%，寒武纪上涨2.95%，澜起科技上涨1.23%，华 天科技上涨1.22%。 消息方面，根据世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS），今年1-6月全球半导体市场规模达3460亿美元，同 比增长18.9%。一季度市场规模约1670亿美元，同比增长18.1%;二季度约1800亿美元，同比增长 19.6%。上半年逻辑半导体市场规模提升37%、存储半导体则增长 20%、传感器增长16%、模拟和微型 器件均小幅增长4%。 方正证券研报指出，自主可控是半导体最强主线，从AI算力到制造再到封测，国产供应链正在加强配 套。尽管当前国产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant developments, including Huawei's return of the Kirin chip after five years, which indicates progress in self-sufficiency in chip packaging, manufacturing, and design [1]. Group 1 - Huawei's Kirin chip is officially returning, marking a major milestone in achieving self-control in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors next week, which may positively impact domestic alternatives and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [1]. - The central bank's commitment to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy raises speculation about potential interest rate cuts, which is viewed as favorable for the industry [1].

Core Viewpoint - Xi'an Yiswei Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking it as the first unprofitable company accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange after the implementation of new policies. The company is the largest 12-inch silicon wafer manufacturer in mainland China, with significant growth potential in the semiconductor industry [2]. Group 1 - Xi'an Yiswei was established in 2016 and focuses on the research and production of 12-inch silicon wafers, holding a market share of 6-7% globally, ranking sixth in the world [2]. - The company has developed five core process systems, with products serving international clients such as Samsung and SK Hynix, covering storage and logic chip sectors [2]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 is 41.83%, despite a cumulative loss of 1.728 billion yuan due to high depreciation from heavy asset investments [2]. Group 2 - The company plans to raise 4.9 billion yuan for capacity expansion, aiming to reach a production capacity of 1.2 million wafers per month by 2026, which would meet 40% of mainland China's demand [2]. - Regulatory authorities are concerned about the stability of the company's control and its profitability outlook. The listing highlights the capital market's acceptance of "hard technology" and the need for the company to overcome profitability challenges in an oligopolistic market [2].

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.08.08 晶圆代工行业龙头 25Q2 毛利率优于指引上限 [Table_Industry] 半导体 中芯国际及华虹半导体发布 25Q2 业绩 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读： 我们认为在工业及汽车需求修复下，晶圆代工产能利用率有望持续改善，叠加在 地化生产趋势确立，头部 Fab 有望实现业绩增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 半导体《AI 发展潜力大，半导体自主可控是关 键》2025.07.24 半导体《景气提升，关注晶圆代工产能扩张及先 进封装稀缺性》2025.07.21 半导体《沐曦股份及摩尔线程科创板 IPO 受理》 2025.07.04 半导体《设置科创 ...

半导体板块走强，能否走出阶段行情？中国银河证券财富星首席投资顾问高乐认为，滞涨补涨紧盯业 绩，半导体自主可控迭代升级；五矿证券投资顾问梁承伟认为，特朗普关税搅动半导体市场；申万宏源 理财研究首席分析师蒋亦凡认为，半导体业绩和催化剂双轮驱动，继续看好。（第一财经） ...