Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that despite a positive outlook for 2026, the remainder of 2025 may present challenges for markets, particularly in the context of interest rate cuts and economic conditions [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more interest rate cuts, with the upcoming non-farm payroll report in October being a critical indicator for this decision [3][4]. - The economic forecasts for GDP growth, PCE, and unemployment rates indicate a gradual improvement, with GDP projected to grow by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in the long term [4][5]. Group 2 - The AI narrative is evolving, with significant developments in Q2 earnings reports and product launches, indicating a shift towards more mature AI applications and cost-effective computing [6][7]. - Major tech companies are preparing their capital expenditure plans for 2026, which may drive further growth in the technology sector, particularly in AI and semiconductor investments [7][9]. - The Chinese tech sector is expected to benefit from external easing conditions, with continued opportunities in growth assets despite a mixed economic environment [9]. Group 3 - The virtual portfolio "Alpha Dolphin" experienced a slight decline of 0.1% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index but outperforming other indices like MSCI China and the S&P 500 [10]. - Key contributors to the portfolio's performance included Alibaba and TSMC, driven by positive market sentiment towards AI and semiconductor demand [12][14]. - The portfolio's overall performance since inception shows a 110% absolute return, significantly outperforming the MSCI China index by 90.8% [13]. Group 4 - The portfolio consists of 18 stocks and equity ETFs, with a current allocation of approximately 55% in equities and 45% in defensive assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries [15].

Core Insights - The chip ETF Tianhong (159310) has seen a significant increase of 2.29% with a trading volume of 23.1 million yuan, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks such as Jiangbolong (301308) and Baiwei Storage (688525) [3] - In the past two weeks, the chip ETF Tianhong (159310) has experienced a growth of 19.6 million yuan, indicating robust investor interest [3] - The technology sector is gaining traction among private equity firms, with over 65% planning to maintain high positions in technology growth areas, particularly in AI and semiconductors [5] Fund Performance - The chip ETF Tianhong (159310) has recorded a net inflow of 90.48 million yuan over four out of the last five trading days, reflecting strong market interest [4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF Tianhong (589860) has also shown positive momentum, with a peak increase of over 2% and a trading volume of 90.74 million yuan [4] Product Highlights - The chip ETF Tianhong (159310) tracks the CSI Chip Industry Index, with top holdings including SMIC, Northern Huachuang, and Cambrian [5] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF Tianhong (589860) covers 97% of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's market value, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors and AI [5] Industry Developments - Alibaba Cloud has launched the new generation of AI servers, the Panjiu 128, which boasts high-density design and significant performance improvements, attracting industry attention [6] - The IPO of domestic AI chip company Moer Thread has been approved in a record time of less than three months, highlighting the efficiency of the new listing standards for tech firms [6] Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Securities anticipates steady growth in the computer industry for Q3 2025, with a focus on AI applications and computing power [7] - Jinyuan Securities notes Alibaba Cloud's comprehensive strategy in computing power and platform development, which is expected to accelerate the application of domestic AI hardware [7]

上周（9月22日至9月26日）半导体产业链领涨市场，多只半导体主题ETF涨超15%。存储芯片市场进入 新一轮上行周期。华鑫证券认为，继三星、SK海力士逐步减产DDR4转向DDR5和HBM后，美光、闪迪 等厂商相继提价，叠加头部原厂产能向HBM、LPDDR5等高附加值产品倾斜，DRAM与NAND Flash价 格持续攀升，四季度企业级存储价格有望进一步上涨。在此背景下，国内存储厂商将迎来显著的业绩弹 性机遇。 行业动态方面，近期AI硬件与终端设备迎来密集催化。金元证券指出，阿里云在算力、平台与应用层 面进行全栈式布局，其自研磐久128超节点AI服务器采用开放架构，支持多厂商AI芯片接入，为国产芯 片提供关键桥梁，有望加速国内AI硬件生态落地。 此外，半导体设备领域技术突破不断，平台化布局持续推进。中邮证券分析，中微公司近期推出六款覆 盖等离子体刻蚀、原子层沉积及外延工艺的新设备，其中12英寸ALD产品可满足先进逻辑与存储器件 金属栅需求，外延设备具备成熟至先进节点的广泛兼容性，标志着公司正加速向高端半导体设备平台型 企业转型，在下游扩产与国产化替代双轮驱动下成长动能强劲。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年9月30 ...

Group 1 - The electronic industry experienced a 3.51% increase from September 22 to September 26, ranking third among major sectors [2][3] - The electronic industry's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 72.55, with the highest valuations in the computer, defense, and electronic sectors [2][3] - Within the electronic sector, semiconductor equipment saw the largest increase of 15.56% during the same period [2][3] Group 2 - The storage chip market is entering a new price increase cycle, with major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix reducing DDR4 production to focus on higher-margin products [3][4] - Flash memory prices have risen significantly, with NAND Flash wafer prices increasing by nearly 10% in September, and DRAM prices rising approximately 72% over the past six months [3][4] - Companies such as Micron and SanDisk have announced price hikes of 20%-30% and over 10%, respectively, indicating strong demand in the enterprise market [3][4] Group 3 - Alibaba announced significant upgrades to its AI infrastructure at the Cloud Summit, including the launch of the Qwen3-Max model with over a trillion parameters [6] - The new AI server, Panjiu 128, supports 128 AI computing chips and offers substantial improvements in performance and efficiency [6] - The successful IPO of Moore Threads marks a significant milestone in the domestic AI chip industry, with the company achieving technological breakthroughs in GPU architecture [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and the significant investments being made in the sector, particularly in GPU technology and AI server capabilities, indicating a strong future growth trajectory for these areas [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Developments - Nvidia plans to gradually invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support data center infrastructure, with an initial deployment of at least 10 gigawatts of systems expected by the second half of 2026 [2]. - The approval of Moore Threads' IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to raise approximately 8 billion yuan for the development of self-controlled AI training and inference chips, as well as graphics chips [3]. - Alibaba Cloud launched the Panjiu 128 super-node AI server, which supports 128 AI computing chips and offers significant improvements in bandwidth and latency, enhancing inference performance by about 50% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Directions - The investment from major players like Nvidia is expected to extend the global AI infrastructure expansion cycle, increasing demand for high-end GPUs, advanced packaging, and cooling solutions [2]. - The focus of competition in the computing power supply is shifting towards optimizing interconnectivity, with an emphasis on achieving high bandwidth and energy efficiency in system designs [4]. - The commercialization of the MUSA architecture and developer ecosystem by domestic GPU manufacturers is entering a market validation phase, which could accelerate R&D investments and ecosystem development [3].

3 2025 年 09 月 29 日 存储芯片进入新一轮周期，国产 AI 芯片大时代 已经开启 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 18.7 44.4 106.0 沪深 300 8.3 17.0 43.1 市场表现 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：MetaConnect 大会即将召开，科技巨头承诺加码 AI 投资》2025-09-08 2、《电子行业周报：国产未来10年 AI 战略蓝图已现，国产 AI 算力基建 实现重大突破》2025-09-01 3、《电子行业周报：DeepSeek 正式 发布新模型 V3.1，英伟达暂停 H20 芯片生产》2025-08-25 ▌上周回顾 9 月 22 日- 9 月 26 日当周，申万一级行业涨跌呈分化的态 势。其中电子行业上涨 3.51%，位列第 3 位。估值前三的行业 为计算机、国防军工、电子，电子行业市盈率为 72.55。电子 行业细分板块比较，9 ...

展望10月，招商证券指出，行业布局主要围绕高景气延续与困境反转的领域展开：高景气延续领域主要 集中在AI与人形机器人产业链，在海内外算力投入持续增加的背景下，板块增长势头强劲，三季报业 绩有望延续领先增长；重点关注半导体、计算机设备、软件开发、自动化设备、游戏等。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF （588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括科创板中半导体设备 （59%）和半导体材料（25%）细 分领域的硬科技公司。 半导体设备和材料行业是重要的国产替代领域，具备国产化率较低、国产替代 天花板较高属性，受益于人工智能革命下的半导体需求扩张、科技重组并购浪潮、光刻机技术进展。 半导体材料ETF （562590）及其联接基金（A类：020356、C类：020357），指数中半导体设备 （59%）、半导体材料（24%）占比靠前，充分聚焦半导体上游。 截至2025年9月29日 14点07分，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数强势上涨1.31%，成分股盛美上海 上涨7.88%，京仪装备上涨5.50%，中微公司上涨3.79%，拓荆科技，芯源微 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a notable rise, with key indices showing positive performance and significant investment activity in related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 14:00, the China Securities Chip Industry Index increased by 1.4%, and the China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index rose by 1.8% [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), saw a real-time net subscription of nearly 1.3 billion units [1] Group 2: Company Developments - On September 26, Moore Threads' IPO was approved, focusing on full-function GPUs, making it one of the few domestic companies that balance graphic rendering and AI computing [1] - Moore Threads plans to raise 8 billion yuan for the development of next-generation autonomous and controllable chips [1] - Alibaba Cloud introduced the new generation of Panjiu 128 ultra-node AI servers at the 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference, designed to efficiently support various AI chips, with a single cabinet accommodating 128 AI computing chips, setting a new industry density record [1] Group 3: Index and ETF Information - The China Securities Chip Industry Index includes 50 listed companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, and related materials or equipment [1] - The China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index comprises 40 listed companies engaged in semiconductor materials and equipment [1] - The E Fund Chip ETF (516350) and the E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159558) track the aforementioned indices, providing investors with opportunities in the semiconductor sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that artificial intelligence (AI) remains a key focus for the future, with Nvidia planning to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support data center construction, driving demand for high-end GPUs, advanced packaging, optical interconnects, and liquid cooling solutions [1] - The approval of Moores Threads' IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indicates that domestic GPU platform capabilities are entering a market validation phase, with expectations for accelerated R&D investment and ecosystem development [1] - Alibaba Cloud has launched the Panjiu 128 ultra-node AI server, focusing on high-density and low-latency system capabilities, shifting the competitive focus on the supply side of computing power towards optimized interconnectivity to achieve high bandwidth, dense packaging, and higher energy efficiency [1] Group 2 - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects listed companies involved in application software development, system integration services, and related technology services to reflect the overall performance of the software and information technology services industry [1] - The index emphasizes the allocation of high-growth and innovative software companies, fully reflecting industry development trends and technological advancement directions [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 创业板人工智能ETF国泰（159388）跟踪的是创业板人工智能指数（970070），涨跌幅为20%，该指数 从创业板市场中选取涉及软件开发、智能硬件制造、大数据处理等人工智能技术及相关应用的上市公司 证券作为指数样本，以反映创业板市场内人工智能相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数聚焦中国新兴 科技产业的创新能力和成长潜力，涵盖了人工智能领域的代表性企业。 国信证券指出，全球云服务提供商（CSP）的AI军备竞赛加速，算力基础设施持续受益于AI发展，成为 通信行业主赛道。阿里云发布的全新一代磐久128超节点AI服务器采用正交架构设计，单个机柜支持 128个AI计算芯片，功率密度达350kW，支持单芯片2000W高负载运行，硬件故障预测准确率达99%， 显著提升数据中心算力集中度。中兴通讯展出的超节点服务器支持64张GPU，具备Scale-Up与Scale-Out 双重扩展能力。光通信领域，阿里自研102.4T交换机支持800G/1.6T光模块，UPN网络系统采用 LPO/NPO光互连技术，预计实现成本降低30%以上。 ...