Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared rapidly in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, with weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. In the current market, the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz may be re - priced. With the arrival of the summer consumption peak season, the support for oil prices will strengthen. The recent US economic data has boosted the market's interest - rate cut expectation, alleviating the macro - economic pressure. The Iran - Israel conflict has increased market risk appetite, which may further boost oil prices. Therefore, there is still room for oil prices to rise, and it is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [13][20][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the latter half of the oil price was affected by the Iran - Israel conflict and soared rapidly, with the three major crude oil futures recording weekly gains of over 12%. In the absence of an obvious sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, there may still be a small upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [535 - 565] yuan/barrel and consider cautious bottom - fishing for long positions. However, be aware of the rapid decline in oil prices when there is news of geopolitical easing [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and then quickly rose in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, resulting in weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. Currently, the Iran - Israel conflict has not had a substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the war spreads to neighboring producing countries, oil prices will still have upward potential [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Macro - economy**: - US economic data is improving. The May CPI data was lower than expected, and the initial and continuing jobless claims increased, along with weak PPI data. This has increased the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September to over 80%, reducing the upward pressure on oil prices [25]. - The Iran - Israel conflict has escalated rapidly. Israel launched a large - scale military operation against Iran on June 13, and Iran retaliated. The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US was cancelled. If the conflict spreads to the Strait of Hormuz, it may disrupt crude oil exports and open up upward space for oil prices [31]. - **Supply**: - According to the May monthly report, OPEC + production decreased by 106 thousand barrels per day from March to April. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, nearly 80% of crude oil transportation will be affected, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having some alternative transportation capabilities [34][35]. - There are still contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia in production. The US production remains stable [39][42]. - **Demand**: - Attention should be paid to changes in institutional expectations. The manufacturing industries in China and the US are contracting, but refined oil production has shown a slight recovery [45][48][54]. - **Inventory**: - US crude oil inventories are decreasing, mainly due to the recovery of consumption. US refineries' daily crude oil processing volume has reached a peak since July 2024, indicating a recovery in North American consumption [56]. - US refined oil inventories are increasing, which may narrow the crack spread [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared after the Iran - Israel conflict. The market may re - price the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz. With the summer consumption peak season and the boost of the interest - rate cut expectation, and the ongoing Iran - Israel conflict, there is still upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [64].

西太平洋银行：周末之前风险非常高，原油价格很有可能突破1月份的高点 金十数据6月13日讯，西太平洋银行大宗商品和碳研究主管罗伯特•雷尼表示："鉴于以色列的袭击似乎 更多地是针对伊朗军事总参谋部，包括伊斯兰革命卫队的负责人和高级核科学家，而美国没有参与其 中，这表明我们今天看到的更多是先发制人的打击，而不是持续的军事冲突。""然而，交易员将非常关 注伊朗的反应，以及它是如何针对以色列的，而不是代理攻击。进入周末前的风险非常高，原油价格很 有可能突破1月份的高点。""然而，从更大的角度来看，我们仍然认为，随着我们进入第三季度，我们 将看到价格下探60至65美元区间的低端，而进入第四季度时，价格有可能跌破60美元。" ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly increased due to various factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and a decrease in U.S. oil inventories [2][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil contracts rose by $2.90, a 4.34% increase, closing at $69.77 per barrel; WTI contracts increased by $3.17, a 4.88% rise, closing at $68.15 per barrel [2]. - The market reacted to news of U.S. personnel withdrawal from the Middle East, which heightened geopolitical tensions and led to a 5.2% spike in WTI crude futures [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations are critical; successful talks could ease tensions and lower oil prices, while failure may lead to further price increases [2][6]. - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil consumption passes, poses a risk of supply disruptions if tensions escalate [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which supports oil prices [6]. - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.64 million barrels to 432.415 million barrels as of June 6, indicating a tightening supply [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the oil market may remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical risks, U.S.-China trade negotiations, and OPEC's production decisions [7]. - The expectation for Brent crude oil prices is to range between $60 and $70 per barrel for the year, with potential short-term rebounds but a long-term bearish outlook [7].

多空逻辑交织，OPEC+增产压制短期价格，但俄乌、中东局势暗藏上行风险，未来原油价格将如何运 行？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

作 者丨费心懿 金联创成品油分析师毕明欣表示，本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势震荡下行。具体来 看，期初欧佩克部分产油国将实施补偿性减产的消息对油价起到支撑，但近期欧佩克成员国 之间因遵守生产配额问题而关系紧张，几个成员国将提议在6月增加原油产量，以及哈萨克斯 坦一季度原油出口同比激增7%，供应预期增加令油价再度承压。此外，美国所谓"对等关 税"政策的不确定性令全球经济增长与燃料需求前景蒙阴，叠加美国原油库存连续第五周攀 升，利空因素居于主导，令原油价格走势承压。受原油走势影响，变化率正向区间接连收 窄。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政策依然带 有不确定性，沙特增产等多因素叠加，国际油价或承压运行，短期原油仍延续弱势震荡走 势。新周期伊始，国内测算的原油变化率将以负值开局。由于下一轮调价周期横跨"五一"小 长假，调价周期较长，国际原油市场的波动性较大，后市油价走势仍有不确定性。 据悉，下轮成品油调价窗口为5月1 9日2 4时。 4月3 0日2 4时，国内汽柴油零售限价调整将达成年内第二次搁浅。 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - In April 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 4,000 tons (0.2%). This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 39.4115%, a month - on - month increase of 2.477 percentage points. The refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, and it is expected to increase next week [7]. - Demand - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is all below the historical average, although they have increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - Cost - The daily asphalt processing profit was - 594.51 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 619.09 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation - The refineries' recent production increase raises supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak and fails to meet expectations. Inventory is continuously decreasing. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2506 fluctuating in the range of 3397 - 3463 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. Supply pressure is high, and demand recovery is weak. The overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [7]. - **Basis**: On April 29, the Shandong spot price was 3560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was 130 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. Factory inventory was 902,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%. Port diluted asphalt inventory remained unchanged at 140,000 tons. Social inventory is continuously increasing, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory remains stable. Bullish [10]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 06 contract closed above MA20. Neutral [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with long positions turning to short. Bearish [10]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [12]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's market overview, including the prices, price changes, and price change rates of different asphalt contracts, inventory, production, and other indicators [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the spreads of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2025 [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [65]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt social inventory and factory inventory from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the difference between asphalt import and export from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of downstream mechanical demand such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales [87][91][93]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [96][99][102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from April 2024 to April 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [107].

2025 年 4 月 30 日 原油：或继续震荡下行，二次探底 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI6 月原油期货收跌 1.63 美元/桶，跌幅 2.62%，报 60.42 美元/桶；布伦特 6 月原油期货收 跌 1.61 美元/桶，跌幅 2.44%，报 64.25 美元/桶；SC2506 原油期货收跌 10.10 元/桶，跌幅 2.07%， 报 478.00 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 1. 德国 5 月 Gfk 消费者信心指数 -20.6，预期-26，前值由-24.5 修正为-24.3。 2. 欧元区 4 月工业景气指数 -11.2，预期-10.1，前值由-10.6 修正为-10.7。 3. 欧元区 4 月经济景气指数 93.6，预期 94.5，前值由 95.2 修正为 95。 4. 俄乌冲突：俄称布良斯克州遭乌无人机袭击，致 1 死 1 伤。普京宣布卫国战争胜利庆典期间停 火 72 小时。乌克兰外交部长：乌克兰提议全面停火至少 30 天。乌克兰空军表示，俄罗斯在夜 间和白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window is closing soon, with an expected increase of 45 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, but it has not reached the retail price adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - As of April 28, the reference crude oil change rate is 1.11%, indicating a potential price increase for gasoline and diesel [4]. - There is uncertainty whether the adjustment will be a second suspension of the year or a slight increase due to the current market conditions [2][5]. - The likelihood of a price suspension is high, but a marginal increase cannot be completely ruled out [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating trend during the current pricing cycle, influenced by trade negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [4]. - The market sentiment is currently pessimistic, with limited support expected from the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. [4][5]. - If the price adjustment results in a suspension, it will mark the second suspension since 2025, maintaining current fuel costs for consumers and logistics for the next half month [5].

折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油的升幅分别在0.18元、0.19元及0.19元。今年国内成品 油零售价格已经经历七轮调整周期，其中3次上调，1次搁浅，3次下调。调价后，国内每吨汽、柴油价 格较2024年底均上涨55元。 4月2日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来年内第三次上调。 据国家发展改革委消息，自2025年4月2日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上涨 230元和220元。 本计价周期内，原油品种变化率以正向开局，且周期内全部在正向区间运行，因此本轮调价周期的最终 结果为成品油零售价格上调。 本轮成品油零售限价上调后，私家车单次加满一箱50升的92号汽油后将多花9元。私家车方面，以月跑 2000公里，百公里平均油耗8升的燃油汽车为例，下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加14元 左右。物流行业以月跑10000公里，百公里油耗在38升的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆 车的燃油成本将增加361元左右。 因清明节假期即将来临，外出旅行人次增多，本次成品油零售价格上调后，车主的用油成本将会有所增 加，车主可在调价前加油，以节约近期用车成本。 调价周期内国内成品油市场价格 ...