Group 1 - Recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply, leading to a surge in oil prices [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent crude oil prices could rise above $90 per barrel in the near term due to increased geopolitical risk premium [1] - Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, Goldman Sachs maintains that oil supply from the Middle East is unlikely to be interrupted, forecasting strong supply growth outside of US shale oil [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs outlines a scenario where damage to Iran's export infrastructure could reduce its oil supply by 1.75 million barrels per day within six months, with a gradual recovery thereafter [1] - In this scenario, if OPEC+ core producers compensate for half of Iran's peak supply shortfall, Brent crude prices could peak slightly above $90 per barrel, but are expected to decline to $60 per barrel by 2026 as Iranian supply recovers [1] - In extreme tail scenarios, oil prices could rise even faster due to broader regional oil production or shipping disruptions [1][2] Group 3 - The likelihood of trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz appears low, but investors and policymakers remain vigilant due to the potential inability of OPEC+ core producers to deploy spare capacity [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for nearly one-fifth of global oil flow [2] - In extreme long-term disruption scenarios, Goldman Sachs estimates oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices reaching as high as $76 per barrel before experiencing a sharp decline to $70.45 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices experienced a peak of $76 per barrel, followed by a drop to $70.45 per barrel, reflecting a daily decline of 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the price of high-sulfur fuel oil is closely tied to crude oil prices, with a notable increase of 3.38% to 3276 yuan per ton [1][4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that if regional conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs holds a contrary view, expecting prices to drop to $55 per barrel by Q4 2025 [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting retaliatory actions from Iran [2]. - Turkish President Erdogan emphasized the need for diplomatic solutions to the escalating violence, which poses risks to regional security [2]. - Analysts indicate that ongoing tensions in the Middle East will likely keep oil prices elevated due to supply risks [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Middle East accounts for approximately one-third of global high-sulfur fuel oil exports, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts [5]. - Iranian high-sulfur fuel oil shipments have decreased significantly due to U.S. sanctions, with May shipments reported at 900,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - Russian high-sulfur fuel oil exports also faced a decline, with May shipments estimated at 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from the previous month [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Demand Trends - Summer is a peak demand season for high-sulfur fuel oil, particularly in regions like the Middle East and South Asia, with Saudi Arabia's imports expected to rise [6]. - Egypt has increased its demand for high-sulfur fuel oil due to natural gas shortages, with June imports projected at 650,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous month [6]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil may continue to grow, although OPEC+ production increases could impact this trend [6]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The volatility in international oil prices is expected to continue, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. - Analysts recommend market participants to be cautious and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [7]. - If Brent crude oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, high-sulfur fuel oil prices could rise above $510 per ton [8].

随着以色列和伊朗爆发冲突，外界对霍尔木兹海峡这一全球能源命脉的安全再度产生担忧。 在以色列袭击伊朗之后，伊朗官员已暗示可能关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这一言论一度引发国际原油 价格飙升。 为什么霍尔木兹海峡对全球能源市场至关重要？ 霍尔木兹海峡是连接波斯湾和印度洋的海峡， 亦是唯一一个进入波斯湾的水道。 （卫星图） 这条狭窄的水道在最窄处仅有29海里宽，却承载了近三分之一的全球海运原油运输量以及五 分之一的全球液化天然气（LNG）运输量。 美国能源信息署（EIA）将其称为"全球最重要的 石油咽喉要道"。 据国际能源署（IEA）统计，2023年每天约有2000万桶原油及成品油通过霍尔木兹海峡，占 全球石油贸易总量的近30%。其中约70%的运输量流向亚洲市场，最大买家包括印度和日本 等国。 尽管存在替代的管道运输方案，但能力有限。IEA估计，目前通过陆路改道的石油运输能力仅 为420万桶/日，例如沙特的"东西管道"（通往红海），以及阿联酋的"阿布扎比原油管 道"（通往富查伊拉）。这些替代路线的运输能力仅占海峡正常运输量的约四分之一。 由于卡塔尔和阿联酋的LNG出口几乎没有可行的替代航线，任何航运中断都将严重收紧全球供 应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent military escalation between Israel and Iran has reignited tensions in the Middle East, leading to significant increases in global oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures both recording over 10% gains last week [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both saw over 10% increases last week due to the conflict [1]. - In early Asian trading, domestic crude oil futures surged nearly 6%, reaching a two-month high [1]. - The market's fear escalated after Iranian officials hinted at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport [3][7]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is vital, facilitating the passage of approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global maritime oil trade [3][10]. - The potential closure of the Strait could lead to a significant reduction in global oil supply, directly impacting global trade and energy security [10][12]. - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, heavily rely on this waterway for their oil exports [10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - JPMorgan raised the probability of a worst-case scenario involving the closure of the Strait from 7% to 17%, warning that oil prices could soar to $120-$130 per barrel [7]. - Goldman Sachs also revised its short-term oil price forecasts, indicating that prices could exceed $100 per barrel under dire circumstances [7]. - The UK Maritime Trade Operations issued warnings to seafarers operating in the region, reflecting heightened concerns in the shipping market [7]. Group 4: Expert Opinions on Conflict Escalation - Experts suggest that while the current conflict is intense, the likelihood of Iran fully blocking the Strait is low due to its own economic dependencies on oil exports [11][12]. - Analysts believe that Iran's threats are more about strategic deterrence rather than a genuine intention to close the Strait, as such actions would have severe economic repercussions for Iran itself [11][12]. - Historical precedents indicate that even the mere threat of disruption in the Strait can lead to significant oil price volatility, as seen in past crises [13][19].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts that if regional conflicts escalate, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel [1] - The bank's forecast for Brent crude oil futures in Q1 next year is set at $55 per barrel, excluding geopolitical risk premiums or significant oil supply disruptions [1] - The bank recommends increasing positions in high-quality Asian energy companies, specifically China National Petroleum Corporation (00857.HK), raising its H-share target price to HKD 8 due to breakthroughs in Xinjiang gas fields [1] Group 2 - The bank advises selling China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386.HK), anticipating disappointing Q2 performance [1] - The most bearish outlook is on airline stocks, particularly Air China (00753.HK) and China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) [1] - For shipping companies, higher freight rates are expected to offset the negative impact of increased fuel costs, with a preference for Evergreen Marine and China COSCO Shipping Corporation (01919.HK) [1]

Group 1: Market Impact - The recent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel has significantly impacted global markets, with many broker reports indicating that the intensity and duration of this conflict may exceed previous encounters, leading to risks entering "unknown territory" [2] - On June 13, WTI crude oil prices surged over 14% at one point, closing up more than 7.5% at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - The total trading volume in the U.S. crude oil options market skyrocketed to 681,000 contracts on June 13, with a notable concentration in $80 call options, indicating a strong market sentiment towards potential supply disruptions in the Middle East [4] Group 2: Speculative Positions - As of the week ending June 10, speculative positions in WTI crude oil saw a net increase of 16,000 contracts, reaching a total of 179,100 contracts, the highest in 19 weeks [3][4] - Brent crude oil net long positions also rose by over 29,100 contracts, totaling 196,900 contracts, the highest in 10 weeks [4] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Rates - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 3.36% to 1968 points on June 13, the highest since October of the previous year, with a cumulative increase of 54% over the past month [5] - Oil tanker freight rates surged, with forward contracts for July rising by 15% to $12.83 per ton, reflecting market expectations of supply disruptions [5] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - The current oil prices are believed to reflect geopolitical risk premiums, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 7% probability of a worst-case scenario where oil prices could rise exponentially due to supply shocks [5] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 30% of global maritime oil trade, poses a significant risk to oil supply and pricing [6] Group 5: Broader Market Reactions - The tensions in the Middle East have also led to a rise in gold prices, with international gold prices reaching $3,467 per ounce, while major global stock indices experienced declines [7] - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical tensions may lead to short-term price spikes, the long-term outlook for oil prices may remain weak due to anticipated increases in supply from OPEC+ and slowing demand growth [7][8]

Oil implications – oil px tracjectory , asia eq implications, impact on India , impact to China Transportation , flows & positioning , macro (inflation) implication , solid Gold - all below.. & Chartpack to track tensions in the ME ⽯油影响——油价⾛势、亚洲股市影响、对印度的影响、对中国交通运输的影响、资⾦流动与仓位、宏观 （通胀）影响、实物⻩⾦——详⻅下⽂及中东紧张局势追踪图表 包 Webcast replay featuring Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven and MENA Senior Economist Farouk Soussa. 市场洞察 - 重点报道 --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights 市场洞察 Thoughts on .. Oil I ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing military conflict between Iran and Israel is significantly impacting the oil market, leading to increased speculation and investment in oil prices due to geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Market Reactions - Following the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, global funds have surged into the oil market, with a total trading volume of 681,000 options contracts on June 13, including a large number of $80 call options [2][4]. - On June 13, WTI crude oil prices spiked over 14% before settling with a 7.5% increase, reaching $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day gain since March 2022 [3]. - According to JPMorgan's latest report, current oil prices reflect a geopolitical risk premium, with a 7% probability assigned to a worst-case scenario where oil prices could rise exponentially, potentially exceeding a reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day from Iranian exports [3][4]. Group 2: Speculative Positions and ETF Performance - Speculative positions in the NYMEX WTI crude oil market have increased, with net long positions rising to 179,134 contracts, the highest in 19 weeks, while Brent crude net long positions reached 196,922 contracts, a 10-week high [4]. - The A-share oil and gas sector ETFs have also seen significant gains, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF rising over 6% and the domestic energy chemical ETF initially increasing by 7% before settling at a 3.25% gain [5]. Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Costs - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 3.36% to 1968 points on June 13, reflecting concerns over potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East, with a cumulative increase of 54% over the past month [5]. - Forward freight agreements for transporting Middle Eastern oil to Asia saw a spike of 15% on July contracts, indicating rising shipping costs due to geopolitical tensions [6]. - Historical context suggests that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed, the impact on oil prices and shipping rates could be comparable to the effects seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with potential increases in shipping costs of 50%-100% due to war risk premiums and rerouting costs [6].

当以色列战机划破德黑兰夜空时，全球能源市场的神经瞬间绷紧。 以色列对伊朗核设施和军事目标的空袭引发了全球原油市场的剧烈震荡。周五，WTI原油暴涨近8%至 74美元，整条期货曲线全线飙升。 而这可能仅仅是开始。如果霍尔木兹海峡这条全球20%石油生命线遭到威胁，投资者面临的将是一场真 正的能源危机。 地缘冲突点燃供应担忧，油价风险溢价急剧攀升 此次袭击导致整条原油期货曲线上扬，前端合约涨幅最为显著，反映出市场对短期供应中断的强烈担 忧。 瑞银分析师Dominic Ellis在评论中指出，"以色列对伊朗的夜间袭击使整条石油期货曲线上移，前端出现 了更为极端的波动，市场正在权衡全球原油流动中断的风险。"虽然伊朗的生产和出口基础设施似乎未 受损，但有报告称炼油厂遭到一定程度的破坏。 Ellis进一步分析称，"这种冲突可能长期化的感觉，即使没有实际的供应中断，也会给石油增加3-5美元/ 桶的地缘政治风险溢价。"这一判断凸显了市场对于局势升级的深度忧虑。 高盛分析师Thomas Evans在给客户的报告中列出了市场当前关注的四大焦点：伊朗反应的规模（包括代 理人活动）、美国官员和特朗普今日的表态、伊朗核设施的损坏程度，以及 ...

中东局势扰动全球金融市场。 据最新消息，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐在致联合国的一封信中，将以色列对伊朗的袭击描述为"宣战"，并呼吁联 合国安理会立即采取行动。伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫表示，伊朗会用各种方式、各种手段对以色列进行报复。据 央视新闻，当地时间13日，伊朗正式退出与美国的核谈判。 关键时刻，美国总统特朗普发出危险警告。据新华社消息，特朗普13日在社交媒体上警告伊朗，下一波对伊朗 的打击将"更残酷"，伊朗必须在被彻底摧毁前与美国达成核问题协议。 有分析称，以色列空袭伊朗的消息重新点燃了地缘政治风险溢价。风险情绪是否持续取决于未来24—48小时。 周末发生报复行动的可能性非常高，这将令投资者保持观望、更加谨慎。 伊朗宣布 6月13日，据央视新闻客户端，当地时间13日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐在致联合国的一封信中，将以色列对伊 朗的袭击描述为"宣战"，并呼吁联合国安理会立即采取行动。 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）最新援引伊朗驻联合国代表团的消息报道称，伊朗已请求召开联合国安理会紧 急会议，讨论以色列对伊朗发动的史无前例的袭击。 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬13日通过社交媒体发布消息称，以色列对伊朗的袭击发生后，伊朗政府立刻召开了 ...