Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to rise due to geopolitical tensions surrounding major oil-producing countries like Iran, overshadowing the potential increase in Venezuelan oil supply [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for February delivery increased by $1.65, or 2.77%, closing at $61.15 per barrel [1][4]. - The geopolitical factors are leading the oil market to establish a price protection mechanism [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The unrest in Iran, a major OPEC oil producer, is contributing to a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $3-4 per barrel in oil prices [6]. - U.S. President Trump announced that any country trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all business dealings with the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Venezuelan Oil Supply - The market is also responding to the potential additional oil supply from Venezuela, which is expected to resume exports [3][7]. - Following the forced removal of Venezuelan President Maduro by U.S. military, Trump indicated that the Venezuelan government is prepared to transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil under Western sanctions to the U.S. [8].

摘要全球最大黄金ETF--SPDRGoldTrust持仓报告显示，1月12日黄金etf持有量为1070.80吨，较上一交易 日增加6.24吨。周与（1月12日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4597.94美元/盎司，涨幅1.97%，日内最高上探至 4629.88美元/盎司，最低触4508.56美元/盎司。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，1月12日黄金etf持有量为1070.80吨，较上一交易日 增加6.24吨。周与（1月12日)截止收盘，现货黄金报4597.94美元/盎司，涨幅1.97%，日内最高上探至 4629.88美元/盎司，最低触4508.56美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 特朗普政府对格陵兰岛的领土主张及武力威胁，直接引发北约内部主权危机与美国国内政治分裂。这一 事件通过"地缘政治风险溢价"和"系统性避险需求"双重路径提振金价：短期看，若危机停留于外交博弈 阶段，黄金将获温和支撑；若升级至立法对抗或军事威慑，金价将获显著上行驱动；一旦实际冲突爆 发，黄金将开启暴涨行情。 ...

Group 1 - The core factor driving the recent rise in oil prices is the escalating geopolitical risk between the US and Iran, with potential military actions being considered by President Trump [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, with an estimated daily oil transport volume of approximately 13 million barrels, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne oil flow by 2025 [1] - Current oil market conditions indicate a trend towards oversupply, with an estimated surplus of about 2.5 million barrels per day in January, potentially exceeding 3 million barrels per day in February and March [1] Group 2 - The transformation of the global energy supply structure is diminishing the premium that traditional geopolitical risks have on oil prices, as the US shale oil revolution and rapid production increases from emerging oil-producing countries like Brazil and Guyana enhance market resilience [2] - The International Energy Agency projects a potential oversupply of up to 3.84 million barrels per day by 2026, indicating significant expectations of surplus [2] - Current market analysis suggests that the oil market is entering a high-volatility phase characterized by a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with high global oil inventories and weak demand growth acting as a cap on oil price increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing divergent trends, with oil prices rising due to geopolitical risks, copper facing short-term corrections but long-term demand growth, and silver declining due to technical selling pressures from index rebalancing [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have rebounded over 3%, approaching $58 per barrel, driven by the return of "geopolitical risk premium" amid tensions in the Middle East and the impact of U.S. control over Venezuelan oil [3]. - The annual commodity index rebalancing is expected to lead to significant passive investment in oil futures, providing additional support to prices despite concerns over supply surplus [3]. Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices have retreated from recent highs, influenced by a stronger dollar and normal market corrections after previous gains [4]. - Long-term demand for copper is expected to increase due to the AI race and rising global defense spending, which may lead to supply shortages, making any short-term price corrections potential buying opportunities [4]. Group 3: Silver Market - Silver has seen significant declines for two consecutive days, primarily due to the annual commodity index rebalancing, which requires passive funds to sell approximately $6.8 billion worth of silver futures [4]. - The selling pressure is largely technical and not fundamentally driven, leading to short-term price volatility [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, investors should adopt an event-driven and tactical approach, closely monitoring geopolitical developments and the actual flow of rebalancing funds [5]. - In copper, a "long-term view with short-term actions" strategy is recommended, taking advantage of short-term corrections while recognizing its long-term scarcity [5]. - For silver and gold, investors should be cautious of the technical selling pressure from index rebalancing, which may create attractive price points for long-term investors once selling pressure subsides [5].

近期委内瑞拉和伊朗两个石油输出国组织（欧佩克）成员政局动荡，然而国际油价不涨反跌。对此，分 析人士表示，当前全球能源结构已发生重大变革，石油市场正告别地缘溢价主导的旧时代，进入以供需 基本面定价为主的新阶段。在当前原油供应过剩的背景下，2026年国际油价将延续低迷走势。 上周以来地缘局势动荡不断，先是伊朗经历三年来最大规模的国内抗议，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁 干涉，再是周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，并宣称将接管该国石油产业。然而，国际油价总体表现波澜不惊。 过去，地缘政治动荡是油价上涨的一个重要催化剂。比如，1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命、2002年委内瑞拉针 对时任总统乌戈·查韦斯的未遂政变分别导致油价在数月内飙升近150%、40%。 但是，近年来地缘冲突对油价的影响已大幅消退。2019年9月，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（阿美石油公 司）布盖格炼油厂和胡赖斯油田遭无人机袭击，导致沙特原油日产量骤减570万桶，约占当时全球日供 应量的6%，但油价也只在冲高两日后就下跌。2025年，全球地缘局势动荡不已，俄乌冲突持续升级， 中东伊以矛盾进入战争边缘，即便如此，国际油价全年阴跌不止，WTI原油期货累计跌近20%，布伦特 原油期货 ...

受短期交易员获利了结影响，金价下跌。High Ridge Futures金属交易主管David Meger表示，当前金价 回落更多反映的是此前大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 美国就业数据意外疲软，成为金价企稳的关键支撑。11月职位空缺降幅超出预期，12月ADP私人部门就 业岗位新增远低于预期，仅有微弱增长。这一系列数据表明，美国劳动力市场正在冷却，强化了市场对 美联储进一步宽松政策的预期。 周四(1月8日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格在连续上涨后出现技术性回调，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4440.88 美元/盎司，下跌0.32%，最高触及4465.83美元/盎司，最低下探4432.99美元/盎司。市场风险情绪趋于缓 和，部分资金选择获利了结，目前市场在等待周四公布美国当周初请失业金人数以及周五美国非农数 据，若数据强于预期，则施压美联储降息预期，不利金价走强，短期来看，黄金依然处于高位震荡之 中。 根据LSEG数据，投资者目前押注2026年美联储将累计降息61个基点。周五即将公布的非农就业报告将 成为下一个焦点，如果继续疲软，金价很可能快速反弹。疲软的经济信号，往往是黄金作为无息资产的 利好，因为低利率环境 ...

▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月6日，委内瑞拉局势成为本周市场开局的焦点也是关键主题所在，昨日的原油市场经历震荡后尾盘抽 高逾1%，周末美军抓捕委内瑞拉领导人的消息给油价带来了一定的地缘政治风险溢价。周二亚市盘 中，油价在经历了近一周的最大涨幅后趋于稳定，交易员们正在权衡委内瑞拉的前景。 尽管如此，整体市场仍面临原油供应过剩的困境，而委内瑞拉的原油产量仅占全球总产量的一小部分 （仅占全球供应量的不到1% ），这意味着该国出口的任何中断都不太可能对油价产生持续影响。供应 过剩已促使沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调对亚洲的原油价格。 知情人士透露，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特计划本周与石油行业高管商讨振兴委内瑞拉能源产业的方 案，美国总统特朗普曾表示美国可能会为委内瑞拉的能源重建工作提供补贴。消息一度让昨日的油价承 压。 周一，加拿大重质原油价格跌至一年来的最低点，交易员们正在权衡更多受制裁的委内瑞拉石油可能流 入美国墨西哥湾沿岸的可能性。加拿大是全球最大的重质原油生产国，近年来，随着通往墨西哥湾沿岸 的输油管道扩建，当地炼油商得以弥补南美原油供应量的减少，加拿大也因此从委内瑞拉原油产量下降 中获益最多。 而 ...

Core Insights - The traditional logic of geopolitical risks driving oil prices is being fundamentally rewritten due to the U.S. shale oil revolution and the normalization of the "shadow market" for sanctioned oil [1][2] - The current oil market has split into two parallel worlds: a transparent public market and a "don't ask, don't tell" market for sanctioned oil, which has buffered geopolitical shocks [3] - The expectation of regime change no longer solely implies supply disruption; instead, it may lead to normalized oil trade and increased market supply, negatively impacting energy investors [2][4] Market Dynamics - Venezuela's oil production now accounts for less than 1% of global supply, approximately 900,000 barrels per day, a significant decline from its previous market share of over 3% [1] - The U.S. refining system is primarily designed to process heavy crude oil from Venezuela, not light crude from domestic shale, indicating a structural dependency [4][6] - If sanctions are lifted, U.S. refiners could more easily access the heavy crude they need, potentially lowering costs and improving refining margins [4] Geopolitical Impact - The flexibility of U.S. shale producers allows for rapid adjustments in production in response to price fluctuations, diminishing the impact of geopolitical events on U.S. gasoline prices [6] - Historical events that previously caused significant oil price spikes, such as the 1979 Iranian Revolution, no longer have the same effect due to the current market structure [1][6] - Challenges remain for restoring production in Venezuela, including high costs, unresolved legal disputes, and local security issues, which complicate the recovery of this unstable country's oil sector [6]

智通财经APP获悉，随着美国威胁扣押运送石油的船只，越来越多的油轮开始偏离委内瑞拉航线。据周 五追踪的船舶动态显示，至少有七艘船只改变航向或停泊在海上。此前，在12月中旬美军登船"斯基珀 号"(Skipper)油轮后，已有四艘船只立即转向。 美国总统特朗普指责委内瑞拉利用石油收入资助一系列犯罪活动，包括贩毒和恐怖主义。作为特朗普施 压行动的一部分，美军对涉嫌贩毒的船只发动了袭击，造成100多人死亡，并扣押了两艘油轮。被扣押 的"斯基珀号"和"世纪号"(Centuries)目前停泊在德克萨斯州海岸附近。委内瑞拉否认了这些指控，并称 美国的行为非法。 局势升级的另一个迹象是，美国称其袭击了委内瑞拉境内一处据称用于运输毒品的设施。此外，美国还 制裁了四家与委内瑞拉原油贸易有关的中国公司和四艘船只。 避开加勒比海海域的船只总共可运载1240万桶原油。数据显示，其中四艘船已改道，另有三艘在海上滞 留。由于船只避开委内瑞拉，该国的储油罐已接近饱和，迫使委内瑞拉国家石油公司(Petroleos de Venezuela SA)关闭部分油井。该国主要产油地奥里诺科盆地的石油产量在12月29日较12月中旬的水平下 降了25%。 ...

周一(12月29日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格震荡走低，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报4515.89美元/盎司，下跌 0.36%，最高触及4548.92美元/盎司，最低下探4471.99美元/盎司。黄金短期主要是避险情绪支撑之下， 金价多头有望继续走强，不过在历史新高附近，波动率有所增加，市场对于美联储降息预期同样支撑金 价，在美元指数没有加速下行之前，金价大概率维持震荡。 特朗普在会谈结束后表示："我认为我们确实离(达成协议)近了很多，也许非常接近了。"泽连斯基在讲 话中称此次和平谈判是一次"真正伟大的讨论"，其中美乌安全保障条款已"100%达成一致"，不过特朗 普在被问及该部分提案时给出了略为保守的评估。 市场普遍认为，金价下行空间相对有限，主要原因在于对美联储2026年进一步降息的预期依然存在。利 率下降将降低持有黄金的机会成本，有利于这种无息资产的估值。 高盛对黄金前景尤为乐观，预计2026年第四季度现货黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，Peter Grant更是大 胆预测2026年上半年可能突破5000美元。 上周黄金市场周初开盘在4339.8的位置后行情先回落，周线最低给到了4337.2的位置后行情强势震荡拉 ...